Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat E-Book

Robert A. Clark

• Herausgeber: Packt Publishing
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 505

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2025

Beschreibung

In today’s volatile world, businesses must be prepared for crises, especially pandemics. This book offers a comprehensive guide to help organizations adapt and survive in the face of such challenges. Analyzing the COVID-19 pandemic, it explores the virus's origins, the global response, and the reasons behind widespread unpreparedness. Real-world case studies provide insights into effective strategies and missteps during the crisis.
The book offers practical tools for developing a robust business continuity plan and highlights the crucial role of leadership and crisis management teams. It also covers key lessons on managing lockdowns, mitigating economic impact, and addressing the psychological and societal effects of a pandemic. Emphasizing both operational and human aspects of crisis management, the book underscores that proactive preparedness today can safeguard businesses and lives tomorrow.

Leseprobe

Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat

Learning from COVID-19 while preparing for the next pandemic

Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat

Learning from COVID-19 while preparing for the next pandemic

ROBERT A. CLARK

Every possible effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this book is accurate at the time of going to press, and the publisher and the author cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions, however caused. Any opinions expressed in this book are those of the author, not the publisher. Websites identified are for reference only, not endorsement, and any website visits are at the reader’s own risk. No responsibility for loss or damage occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from action, as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by the publisher or the author.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form, or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publisher or, in the case of reprographic reproduction, in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publisher at the following address:

IT Governance Publishing Ltd

Unit 3, Clive Court

Bartholomew’s Walk

Cambridgeshire Business Park

Ely, Cambridgeshire

CB7 4EA

United Kingdom

www.itgovernancepublishing.co.uk

© Robert A. Clark 2022

The author has asserted the rights of the author under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work.

First edition published in the United Kingdom in 2022 by IT Governance Publishing

ISBN 978-1-78778-293-8

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Robert Clark describes himself as a business continuity consultant, author, trainer and visiting university lecturer. During his career, he has been presented with three professional fellowships – Fellow of the Institute of Business Continuity Management (FIBCM), Fellow of the British Computer Society (FBCS) and a Fellow of the Institute of Strategic Risk Management (F.ISRM). Buckinghamshire New University awarded him a Master of Science degree in Business Continuity, Security and Emergency Management in 2012.

Robert joined IBM (Big Blue) as a trainee computer operator in 1973. Big Blue was one of those forward-thinking organisations that practised business continuity management (BCM) long before the expression had even been coined. But back then, in the 1970s, with the exception of periodic fire evacuation drills, BCM was simply referred to as disaster recovery, and was entirely focused on protecting the IT environment, along with the associated electronic data.

It was less than 12 months into his 15-year IBM career that Robert first became exposed to BCM. Both local and overseas disaster fall-back trials were regular features in the IBM calendar, and often involved testing its recovery capability by transferring UK operations to Germany or the Netherlands. During his time with the corporation, the closest the operation came to a real disaster fall-back was in 1974, during the UK miners’ strike, when power interruptions became common place.

Robert’s 15 years with IBM were followed by a variety of positions, including 11 years with Fujitsu Services (formerly ICL), working with clients on BCM-related assignments. In 2005 he was tasked with validating Fujitsu’s own BCM state of readiness across Europe. He is now a freelance business continuity consultant and spends much of his time working with clients in Malta and the Middle East.

In 2014 Robert became a part-time associate lecturer at Manchester Metropolitan University, where he has been delivering BCM to both undergraduate and postgraduate students alongside his consultancy commitments. It was in the same year that his first publication In Hindsight – A compendium of Business Continuity case studies was published and reached the Number One spot in the Amazon bestseller’s lists.

Since that early success, Robert has published a further three books, including the bestselling prequel to this book – Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat – Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing organisations.

For more information about the author, please refer to his website: www.bcm-consultancy.com.

ABOUT THIS BOOK

This book is a companion to the bestselling book Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat – Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing organisations published by ITGP in 2016. For your convenience, a list of contents of the original book has been included in chapter 18.

As it first hit the bookshelves almost four years before the proliferation of coronavirus, it was primarily a prediction of the detrimental effect that a severe pandemic could have on organisations. That prediction has proved to have been incredibly accurate. By comparison, this book very much considers the harsh realities and the lessons the world has been learning about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its associated disease, COVID-19, often referred to in this book simply as ‘COVID’.

Having read it early in 2020, Robert Preininger CBCP very kindly said of my original book:

“Bob Clark is the real deal. His book demonstrates a predictive understanding of our current threat environment as well as our personal and corporate vulnerabilities to it. Knowledge is power, read and prevail.”

Posting on LinkedIn in November 2020, honorary Fellow of the Business Continuity Institute (BCI), Joop Franke, also observed:

“The text on the cover of the book from 2016, ‘Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat – Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing organisations’ became very true in 2020.”

Dr Jonathan Quick commented:

“Bob’s book, Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat does a spectacular job filling a gaping void in the pandemic preparedness and response literature. It should be required reading for every CEO concerned with keeping their business in business and every corporate risk manager, regardless of the type of business. He’s written with an engaging, rare combination of hard-nosed business survival strategy and insightful human stories of pandemic experiences.”

As I write, we are now more than eighteen months into the coronavirus pandemic. I have reread the original pandemic book to re-evaluate the predictions I made back then and, in line with Robert Preininger’s remarks, there is actually very little that I believe needs changing in the interest of accuracy. In that original book, I could only draw on the past to help us prepare for the future. But with COVID-19, we are able to draw on the ‘here and now’ while we learn from almost daily experiences that various organisations are having around the globe.

There are, of course, lessons that we have learned and continue to learn about COVID-19, which have been captured and reflected in this book. However, while it has occasionally been appropriate to cross-reference the original book, I have endeavoured to avoid just repeating its contents in this companion.

Anecdotes and injects

A series of injects and anecdotes have been included in this book usually contained within a ‘box’ like this one. They are intended to enhance the readers’ appreciation of the broader impact of the pandemic by relating to various relevant published reports and events that have occurred.

DEDICATION

On 27 September 2020, COVID-19 claimed its one millionth victim, exactly 200 days after the World Health Organization had declared a pandemic. In that time, more than 33 million had been infected by the virus, which maintains its relentless march across the planet as the number of cases and fatalities continues to grow. As we reached year end 2021, the number of globally declared cases had passed 288 million while the recorded number of fatalities was approaching 5.5 million.

This global emergency has shone a light on the selfless devotion and bravery of health workers the world over. Sometimes labouring with inadequate personal protective equipment (PPE), in traumatic conditions, while frequently putting their own lives in jeopardy, they continued to do their absolute best for their patients.

This book is dedicated to them …

… and to Vic Robinson, who sadly lost his battle with COVID-19 on 25 January 2021, aged 69 years. A great guy who will be much missed.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks and appreciation to the following individuals. They have each played some part in helping me to initially understand the enormity of the threat severity associated with pandemics, in addition to supporting me in the subsequent writing of this book:

Dr Natasha Azzopardi Muscat, Director of the Division of Country Health Policies and Systems at the World Health Organization.

Dr Jonathan Quick MD, MPH, Managing Director, Pandemic Response, Preparedness and Prevention, The Rockefeller Foundation.

Dr Lisa M Koonin DrPH, MN, MPH, a US public health official and medical researcher associated with the development of social distancing as a strategy to prevent the spread of viral diseases.

Dr Fergus O’Connor FRCS Lon, FRCS Ed.

Dr Martyn Hinchcliffe BM MRCP FRCR.

Catherine Feeney MSc FIH JP, Overseas Lecturer at Edinburgh Napier University.

Katy Watt Holder of two MSc degrees, Researcher.

Alan Cain BSc FSyI FSRM, Resilience Manager, NHS Greater Manchester Shared Services.

Robert Preininger CBCP, Business Continuity, Incident Response & Disaster Recovery Consultant, Nashville, USA

Sarah Alzaid, Business Continuity Manager, HSBC Bank, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Warren Goodall, Emergency Management Officer, NSW, Australia.

Wong Siu-leung, Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection.

Diana Yue, Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) Corporation.

Geoffrey A Clark, Technical Artist.

Philip J Clark, Teacher of English as a Foreign Language.

Simon Lockyer, Headmaster, Royal Hospital School.

Simon Marsh, Director of Development and Alumni Relations, Royal Hospital School.

Lucy Pembroke, Primary and secondary education specialist in alumni relations and event management, Royal Hospital School.

Polly Honeychurch, Headteacher, Cottage Grove School, Portsmouth.

Andrea Springmann, MA, Destination Management, Sustainability Trainer, Hong Kong.

Fiona Aucott, Bournemouth Symphony Chorus.

David Claypoole, Founder and artistic director of the Virtual Light Opera Company.

Margo Dodd, Supporting the performing arts.

Martyn Parkes, Impromptu Opera.

Debbie Gallimore, Nutritional Therapist and Wellbeing Coach.

Anne Jobson, OBE, Barrister at law at Rougemont Chambers.

Clare Martin, Director of Community Projects, Pompey in The Community (PiTC), Portsmouth Football Club.

Joseph Lightfoot, Results Inc Gymnasiums.

Jane and Gavin Gosnell, Mustard Diner.

Damian Clarkson, The London Kitchen.

Hilary Bennis, Professional Granny.

Elizabeth Peacock, last but by no means least, a very good, long-standing, friend who had a sad story to tell.

I would also like to sincerely thank those individuals who chose to remain anonymous, but whose help and contribution towards the writing of this book has been significant. By remaining namelessness, I appreciate you were able to be more open about your observations and experiences.

FOREWORD

Previous pandemics have reshaped societies in profound ways. The 1918 influenza pandemic changed the course of history – millions died and suffered, and many believed that the event was so severe and unique that it could never happen again.

In 2005, experts were alarmed at the emergence of the novel H5N1 avian influenza virus as it spread among wild and domestic birds in Europe and Asia. Although it rarely affected humans, when it did, it caused a very high mortality rate. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that between 2-7.4 million people could die if an avian virus mutated to become a human pandemic (Cheng, 2005). This concern sparked active pandemic planning in many countries, national plans were developed and rehearsed, stand-by vaccine stocks were developed and some businesses invested in pandemic planning.

As everyone remembers, in 2009, an influenza pandemic struck – not from the expected H5N1 bird flu, but from a novel H1N1 virus. Because an ancestor of this virus had once circulated, some people had partial immunity to the new virus. The severity of this pandemic varied in populations and countries, but overall, its impact was far less severe than anticipated. After the pandemic subsided, a number of businesses who had developed earlier plans that focused on H5N1, relegated those plans to their archives, assuming that future pandemics would be equally mild and not disruptive to business continuity. However, experts, including this author in his book Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat (2016), advised that businesses and business organizations should include pandemic planning in their business continuity plans.

Now we are facing the most severe pandemic experienced since 1918. On December 31, 2019, the detection of the SARS CoV-2 virus was initially reported to the WHO (WHO, 2020) and on January 9, 2020, the WHO announced the emergence of a novel coronavirus-related pneumonia in Wuhan, China (WHO, 2020). No one could have predicted how the emergence of this novel coronavirus would explode to become a worldwide pandemic, creating illness and deaths in unprecedented numbers and with unexpected and long-lasting impact. Millions of people have suffered and succumbed, especially among vulnerable populations. An alarming number of businesses have closed or sustained severe financial and personnel impacts, as the virus rages on in almost every corner of the world. As of this writing, over 500,000 people have died in the U.S. from this disease, over 125,000 deaths in the UK, and there have been more than 2.5 million deaths worldwide. Thankfully, COVID-19 has had a relatively low impact on young children. Although several vaccines to protect people against this virus are being distributed and administered, there is a long way to go to get back to ‘normal’.

This outbreak has presented business responders with many unexpected twists and turns. Whereas pandemic planning had previously focused on a threat from influenza, this coronavirus pandemic is different in several key ways. Unlike their preparations for influenza, business leaders had never factored into their contingency plans that the pandemic would be largely spread by those who were mildly ill or asymptomatic. Nor did they consider that the emergence of multiple virus variants or transmission of disease through aerosols may require additional mitigation measures. We have witnessed the prolonged need for use of face coverings for non-medical personnel in community settings. We also realize the heightened risk of disease transmission in indoor compared with outdoor spaces and the pivotal role that building ventilation and filtration can play. Mandates for prolonged business closures have become commonplace with consequential severely disrupted supply chains. Business leaders need also make provision for employees suffering with residual symptoms and disabling conditions that can persist in some people long after the initial illness.

This pandemic, with all of its terrible surprises, has tested and strained response and continuity plans, bankrupted some businesses, and affected the lives and livelihood of almost all companies. We have seen inequities in outcomes and access to care and learned that the risk of exposure to this virus is not the same for everyone. A sizable proportion of the workforce has been identified as “essential workers” because of the criticality of their roles and because they have greater risk and exposure to the virus, and thus, need enhanced protection.

In this book, Robert Clark updates recommendations for business pandemic planning and emphasizes the importance of the continued development and maintenance of business continuity plans to include robust pandemic planning. It is critical for business leaders to carefully assess their organization’s response to COVID-19 to understand ‘lessons learned’ and incorporate those insights into ongoing pandemic planning. For those who did not have a pandemic plan before COVID-19, this book can inform the key pieces of a plan. We have learned that business pandemic plans must be flexible and adaptable, because it is not possible to plan for all contingencies. Readers of this book would be wise to follow Mr Clark’s advice to create or update their pandemic plans, as it has become evident that pandemics can emerge without warning. Preparing and planning can lessen the blow while bolstering business resilience.

We are not ‘out of the woods’ yet with this pandemic. In addition, the occurrence of a coronavirus pandemic does not diminish in any way the spectre of a future pandemic from influenza or another pathogen. We can learn about how to be better prepared from the recommendations in this book.

Lisa M Koonin DrPH, MN, MPH

Public health researcher associated with the development of social distancing as a pandemic mitigation strategy.

[email protected]

PREFACE

As I am not a clinician or a virologist, I have been asked on a number of occasions how I got involved with pandemics and what inspired me to write not just one book on the subject but two. I honesty cannot remember when I first became aware of the word pandemic being used during a threat analysis exercise or appearing on a risk register. But it was more than a decade ago.

People may well remember the H5N1 bird flu outbreak in 2006 and the H1N1 swine flu outbreak in 2009. They may well also recall the panic that accompanied the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003, which was the first novel contagion of the new millennium. These events certainly helped to raise my own level of awareness.

Then in 2010, I was facilitating some risk management workshops for the Ministry of Health in the Republic of Malta. In case you are not familiar with Malta’s location, it is a group of five islands right in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea – about 100 kilometres to the south of Italy.

During the workshops, I noticed that when the subject of a pandemic was raised, people got very serious, and their body language suggested that we were talking about a threat that made them feel rather uncomfortable. When we had finished the exercise, the threat of a pandemic was not so much at the top of their list of priorities, but it was way out in front.

Before we all headed off in our respective directions, I took the opportunity to talk to the then Chief Medical Officer for Malta, Natasha Azzopardi Muscat, about pandemics. She left me in no doubt about just how dangerous they could be and why they needed to be at the top of a nation’s risk register. Natasha has since moved on and is now the Director of the Division of Country Health Policies and Systems at the World Health Organization (WHO).

In June 2015, I was invited to prepare and present a masterclass, first in Hong Kong and then again in Dubai. The subject was to be business continuity and pandemics. Having accepted the invitation, I duly started to design the delivery structure, when it occurred to me that there would be more than enough material to actually write a book on the subject and Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat was published in 2016. Needless to say, I was delighted that the publication became a bestseller.

So why only five years later am I now writing a companion book? The simple answer is COVID-19. Instead of predicting what could happen during a serious pandemic, we are now living through one.

I am no stranger to business continuity, having received peer recognition over my many years of involvement in the discipline, which stands alongside my corresponding academic qualifications. This book is also my fifth business continuity related publication. Moreover, the pandemic threat is primarily (although not exclusively) about people and how to manage your business with a substantially depleted workforce. Human resources (HR) management departments will need to take a leading role in dealing with the pandemic issues that affect their employees. Here I have been able to draw upon the experience I gained during the five years I spent as the resourcing director for Fujitsu Consulting for Northern Europe. During this time, I had responsibility for managing approximately 1,500 consultants across five countries.

Like its prequel, writing this book has naturally necessitated undertaking a great deal of research, although this has been while we were in the middle of a pandemic rather than before or after the event. This time, the focus has been specifically on the virus SARS-CoV-2 and its associated disease COVID-19. I can tell you that as my research progressed, my appreciation of the enormity of the pandemic threat has increased beyond measure. So too has my genuine concern about the conceivable damage that is being inflicted on life as we know it – both professionally and personally.

In writing this book, in general I have used the United Kingdom (UK) as the benchmark for pandemic preparedness. I also make several references to the UK National Risk Register (NRR), which is in the public domain. I do naturally accept that other countries around the world may be more or less well prepared than the UK. That said, the pandemic threat is taken very seriously in this country, and is considered to be a Tier 1 threat to its security and economy, ranking alongside terrorism, war, cyber threats and natural disasters.

Since this book considers the pandemic threat primarily from a business continuity context, it is certainly not full of jargon that an infectious diseases clinician or virologist would thrive upon. Instead, while it has been necessary to make appropriate references to various bacterium and viruses, it also looks at what history has taught us and how we can apply those lessons to better protect our businesses, and ourselves, from what is an inevitability – the next pandemic.

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: CBRN terrorist attacks from 1974-2018

Figure 2: SARS, MERS and COVID-19 statistical comparison

Figure 3: Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat – Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing organisations

Figure 4: There’s going to be a pandemic – you’re having a laugh?

Figure 5: Hazards, diseases, accidents and societal risks (UK Cabinet Office, 2017, p 9)

Figure 6: Hazards, diseases, accidents and societal risks legend (UK Cabinet Office, 2017, p 9)

Figure 7: Delivering at the BGE

Figure 8: South Korea – Daily new cases 31 December 2021

Figure 9: Hong Kong – Daily new cases 31 December 2021

Figure 10: Taiwan – Daily new cases 31 December 2021

Figure 11: Telephone message cascade approach

Figure 12: Typical three-tier crisis management structure

Figure 13: Pictured wearing a mask that rather appropriately makes ‘A Pointe’ is Anne Jobson, ballet instructor at ‘Ballet for Adults’ in the UK city of Exeter

Figure 14: What a difference a mask can make

Figure 16: Sweden’s daily new cases as of 31 December 2021

Figure 17: New Zealand’s first wave COVID-19 statistics, 31 December 2021

Figure 18: Australia’s COVID-19 statistics, 31st December 2021

Figure 19: Unlike New Zealand, Japan has now had five waves

Figure 20: New York – Florida: Daily new case comparison

Figure 21: UK – Daily new case count versus total hospitalised

Figure 22: Your organisation might normally look like this

Figure 23: Absenteeism could reduce your organisation to this

Figure 24: Social distancing could cripple your organisation

Figure 25: IT service management enquiry – Summary

Figure 26: IT service management capability – Breakdown

Figure 27: Granny Hilary reads a bedtime story to George

Figure 28: COVID testing by year-end 2020

Figure 29: Share price behaviour comparison

Figure 30: Debbie Gallimore – Nutritional therapy & wellness therapy

Figure 31: Mustard diner switched to take-outs during lockdown

Figure 32: RESULTS inc Gymnasium

Figure 33: The London Kitchen

Figure 34: Top three cruise corporations share price comparison

Figure 35: The RHS, Ipswich

Figure 36: Just a few of the letters written by RHS pupils

Figure 37: Cottage Grove Primary

Figure 38: Online Lessons

Figure 39: Impromptu Opera perform for Carluccio’s 80th birthday

Figure 40: CAOS Musical Productions – Die Fledermaus, 2008

Figure 41: Musical Director

Figure 42: Virtual Light Opera Company’s ‘The Staykado’

Figure 43: Prison governor ‘Franke’ meets Ida in Die Fledermaus

Figure 44: Gordon Peacock in happier times

CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: What exactly is a pandemic?

2.1 Known diseases that could cause a pandemic

2.2 Biological warfare and terrorism

Chapter 3: And the origin of the coronavirus was…

Chapter 4: Why did nobody warn us?

4.1 The coronavirus family

4.2 H5N1 2006 and H1N1 2009

4.3 Bill Gates – “The next outbreak? We’re not ready”

4.4 Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat

4.5 National risk registers

4.6 The fragility of tourism in the face of a pandemic

4.7 Leading virologist warns top corporations

4.8 International Security Expo – December 2019

4.9 So, was anyone really listening to the warnings?

4.10 The pop-up hospitals

4.11 Risk managers criticised

4.12 The final word on global preparedness

Chapter 5: Is it too late to write a pandemic plan?

5.1 Did you have a pandemic plan in place?

Chapter 6: Managing the crisis

6.1 The crisis management leadership profile

6.2 When an organisation’s leader is the crisis

6.3 Who should be on the crisis management team?

6.4 What about a CMT meeting agenda?

Chapter 7: Lockdowns: Saving lives, shattering economies

7.1 Wuhan, China – The world’s first mass lockdown

7.2 Lockdowns, saunas and vodka

7.3 You can’t rob us of our rights and our liberty

7.4 Running a business during lockdown

7.5 Who gets to pay the bill?

Chapter 8: Validating your pandemic plan

8.1 Wave one: Pandemic exercise

8.2 Teaching children by remote learning

8.3 Is your work environment safe?

Chapter 9: Vaccinations – A silver bullet?

Chapter 10: Testing and tracing

10.1 Testing

10.2 Could medical detection dogs help?

10.3 Contact tracing

Chapter 11: It’s an ill wind …

Chapter 12: Case studies

12.1 Business interruption insurance

12.2 Debbie Gallimore – Nutritionist

12.3 A taste of ‘Mustard’

12.4 From a cancelled gin festival to jam making

12.5 RESULTS inc Gymnasium

12.6 From The London Kitchen to COVID testing centre

12.7 From hairdressing to ladies’ lingerie

12.8 The Seed Co-operative, Spalding, Lincolnshire, UK

12.9 Pub desks

12.10 Louis’ Steak House – Hong Kong

12.11 Concentrations of risk

Chapter 13: Impact on education

13.1 The Royal Hospital School, Ipswich, UK

13.2 Cottage Grove School, Portsmouth, UK

13.3 Hangzhou Primary Schools, China

13.4 English Language Schools face a bleak future

13.5 Home schooling

13.6 Traditional university

13.7 Commercial training

13.8 The lost school productions

Chapter 14: Performing arts

14.1 Why singers might be COVID-19 super-spreaders

14.2 Online productions

14.3 Personalised videos on the rise

14.4 Impromptu Opera

14.5 The am-dram scene

Chapter 15: The psychological impact

15.1 The fear factor

15.2 Domestic abuse

Chapter 16: Some personal stories

16.1 Captain Sir Tom Moore

16.2 Sally – An essential shop worker’s story

16.3 Philip’s story

16.4 Elizabeth and Gordon’s story

16.5 ‘Pompey’ in the Community (PiTC)

16.6 Long COVID – Claire and Sarah’s stories

Chapter 17: Time yet for a review?

Chapter 18: Companion book contents

Chapter 19: Summary

Appendix A: Other publications by the author

Appendix B: Useful free resource downloads

Appendix C: Pandemic training

Appendix D: Glossary of terms

Appendix E: Bibliography

Appendix F: Permissions and licences

Appendix G: Useful resources

Further reading

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

Something I have come to realise in writing this book while the coronavirus pandemic is still raging, is that it must be a bit like trying to paint a picture of the shifting sands in a desert – things keep moving. It seems that almost every day we learn something new about the virus. The media is forever carrying fresh stories, some of which are very relevant to the context of this book, while other items have the potential to serve as nothing more than a distraction. At the very least, any one of us following the progress of coronavirus too closely could end up with a severe case of information overload. In extreme cases, consequential paranoia could be the outcome of the menacing nature of some content.

I recently heard someone say that “Breathing while we are in this pandemic is dangerous – we are dammed if we do and dammed if we don’t”. But, as with any potentially fatal pandemic, we entered its clutches armed more with the hope that it would soon be over rather than comfortable in the knowledge that there was a vaccine or cure. If mankind is fortunate, this will be sooner rather than later. In fact, the first vaccination outside of a controlled test was administered in the UK on 8 December 2020, just 272 days after the original pandemic declaration. Many organisations around the world have been working tirelessly to develop safe and effective vaccines. Others have endeavoured to find a successful means of treatment or cure from existing licensed medication. To date there has been some, albeit limited, success in that respect too.

During the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, an official-looking announcement appeared on an organisation’s intranet informing employees that:

“During the current financial crisis, the light at the end of the tunnel will be switched off until further notice.”

Perhaps many have been echoing a similar sentiment about the pandemic crisis we have been facing. Just how long is this nasty dark tunnel we have found ourselves in, and when will we get to the end? It is certainly not encouraging when new and potentially threatening virus variants are discovered with Omicron being the latest. While scientists have been engaged in endeavouring to establish the characteristics of the new variant, it has quickly become clear that it has spread across the globe much faster than its predecessors.

In the early days, journalists kept asking politicians ‘how long will the pandemic last?’. Eventually, they came to realise that, like themselves, the politicians and even all the clinicians and scientists who found themselves on camera had no idea either. In fact, nobody did.

But one alarming statistic that the financial crisis certainly appears to have in common with the pandemic is an excess number of collateral fatalities. Published in The Lancet, one paper focuses on the inordinate number of additional cancer deaths associated with increased unemployment and reduced public sector spending on healthcare.

“We estimate that the 2008-10 economic crisis was associated with about 260,000 excess cancer-related deaths in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development alone.”

(Maruthappu, et al., 2016)

Although it is too early to quote specific corresponding figures for the pandemic, a trend appears to be developing that goes beyond cancer and includes other life-threatening illnesses, such as heart conditions and strokes. There are those individuals who perhaps could have benefitted from timely medical intervention, but may have succumbed to non-COVID life-threatening conditions, primarily for two reasons:

1. They are too afraid to seek medical intervention for fear of catching COVID. But, as UK Chief Medical Officer, Chris Witty, said at a government COVID press conference:

“The NHS is absolutely open for business and is not just there for emergencies, but for cancer care and all other kinds of care.”

(Whitty, 2020)

2. In some regions of the UK, hospital capacities have been severely stretched, especially when experiencing a rapid increase in COVID cases. Moreover, seasonal influenza was expected to add to the burden although the number of cases recorded was relatively few in 2020-21. But, even in those more developed countries with health services that may well be the envy of the world, their resources are still finite. Consequently, I believe it is inevitable that some people with non-COVID life threatening conditions may well become collateral fatalities.

It’s official – it’s a pandemic!

It was 11 March 2020 when Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), classified the novel coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic. This declaration came just 70 days after the WHO had first been notified of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. At the time of notification, there had been no associated deaths reported. However, it has since been revealed that the WHO had originally learned of the novel virus via social media rather than through official channels (Hawley, 2021).

The world had been expecting a severe pandemic, although it was anticipated that it would be a novel influenza virus rather than an emerging disease in the form of a coronavirus. One month before the WHO pandemic declaration, this novel coronavirus had been named ‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2’ (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease it causes was named ‘COVID-19’ (WHO, 2020(a)).

It was also around this time that I am sure that many people living in Europe and the Americas were lured into a false sense of security, perhaps believing that this was not their problem. After all, neither of the two previous coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, with the exception of Toronto, Canada, had really represented a threat to the Western world. Moreover, initially, outside of China, the only other significant report of any cases related to the cruise ship, Diamond Princess. This ship was quarantined in Yokohama, Japan with more than 3,700 passengers and crew on board.

We found ourselves facing a global crisis

For those individuals who really had no idea what a life-threatening pandemic was, the arrival of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 was soon to provide the answer. Its associated disease, COVID-19, has been systematically working its way around the globe, testing the resolve and preparedness of each country it has touched. One fairly obvious observation is that the resultant societal and economic effects of the virus have been devastating.

COVID-19 very quickly proved to be indiscriminate in who it attacked, with many well-known individuals being infected. High-profile personalities have included Hollywood actor, Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson. Three generations from a Bollywood dynasty, with actor Amitabh Bachchan, his son Abhishek, daughter-in-law Aishwarya and granddaughter Aaradhya all testing positive.

In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prince Charles, heir to the British throne, both tested positive. World-renowned opera singers Placido Domingo and Andrea Bocelli, plus Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro were also infected. Former US President Donald Trump and his First Lady Melania tested positive. The list goes on. One US politician to die from COVID-19 was Luke Letlow, 41, a Republican congressman-elect. He died just a few days before he was due to be sworn-in. In October 2021, former US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, also succumbed to what was described as “COVID-19 related complications”.

In reality, we soon discovered that we were being confronted by a world-wide emergency which, to begin with, was of largely indeterminate parameters. To the rest of the world, it seemed that the coronavirus had originated in China, although, now almost two years since the pandemic was first declared, that allegation remains unproven.

Every country can expect to face civil emergencies periodically, and needs to be prepared to effectively and efficiently manage the associated crises. The same is true of organisations, both large and small, and each will be judged on not so much the nature of the crisis, but how well it was managed. In this instance, chapter 5 looks specifically at whether organisations do or do not have a pandemic plan prepared. Running a business in lockdown, including protecting and preserving the well-being of employees, is covered in chapter 7.

Chapter 6 considers the management of a crisis which, in addition to pandemics, can equally apply to a variety of causes, such as a natural disaster, cyber attack, IT failure, supply chain failures, availability of skilled staff, etc. Every plan, whether an IT disaster recovery plan, a crisis management plan or a pandemic plan, should be exercised to ensure it is fit for purpose. This might be just a series of tabletop exercises, and chapter 8 provides some validation exercise examples to help organisations in this respect.

Although the WHO did have a war plan that the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak had provided an opportunity to exercise, many countries and businesses simply did not have a script to follow. Some country leaders took swift action and were criticised for not allowing sufficient time for people and organisations to get ready. Others were criticised for reacting too slowly, thereby giving the pandemic the opportunity to establish itself.

The UK government was accused by some of ineptitude for allowing the Cheltenham horse racing festival to proceed in March 2020, along with the Liverpool versus Atletico Madrid European Champions League soccer match. An estimated 250,000 attended Cheltenham, while 52,000, including 3,000 travelling Spanish fans, watched the match at Liverpool. Even though the WHO pandemic declaration came on the second day of the four-day Cheltenham Festival, the event was still permitted to continue unabated. It is believed that these two events led to an avoidable spike in COVID-19 deaths in both localities (Frodsham, 2020).

We have also witnessed an abundance of pop-up pandemic experts suddenly materialising. While the advice they collectively offered was often conflicting (e.g. lockdown, don’t lockdown, wear masks, don’t wear masks, etc.), the commonality of their messages seemed to be ‘strong on the destructive but very weak on the constructive criticism’.

As with other past major incidents and crises, the conspiracy theorists have been only too ready to contribute towards the rhetoric surrounding the pandemic, something which I discuss in chapter 3.

Why weren’t we warned?

The annual Business Continuity Institute (BCI) Horizon Scan Report is usually published in the first quarter of each year. It relies upon organisations providing data about the actual incidents they have experienced over the previous 12 months and the future threats they anticipate. A study of the BCI’s 2020 publication reveals that the word ‘pandemic’ is mentioned just once and COVID-19 three times (BCI, 2020), suggesting that the threat of a pandemic was not keeping business leaders awake at night at that time. Conversely, ‘pandemic’ appears 63 times in the 2021 Horizon Scan Report and COVID-19 on 102 occasions (BCI, 2021). Not surprisingly, ‘pandemic’ had become the standout threat facing most organisations.

Perhaps this might suggest that the world had not been alerted to the threat of an impending pandemic. However, as chapter 4 demonstrates, very few seemed to be listening to the ever-increasing multitude of warnings that had been growing in number ever since the start of the new millennium.

Lockdowns – The economic and societal impact

Disruption on a massive scale gathered momentum as the virus spread, and almost 20% of this book has been allocated to chapter 7 which considers the implications of lockdowns across the world. This includes an insider’s account of the world’s first ever mass lockdown that followed the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

As countries were locked down, millions were quarantined while economies suffered. Unemployment became widespread and stories of consequential hardship became common place, while health services struggled to keep pace with the rising COVID-19 case load.

Vulnerable industry sectors quickly suffered the effects of the pandemic with tourism, hospitality and events finding themselves in the forefront of the chaos. In fact, referring to an American Trade Group report, The New York Times stated that, in the six months from 1 March to 31 August 2020, the US tourism industry alone had sustained $341 billion in losses (Wolfe & Takenaga, 2020).

Schools, restaurants, theatres and cinemas were closed down, while holiday bookings, concerts, festivals, such as Glastonbury 2020 and major sporting events, were all cancelled. Not least of all the most prestigious of sporting events, the 2020 Olympic Games, was postponed until 2021. Some professional sports, such as soccer, cricket and tennis were able to later recommence, although matches had to initially be played behind closed doors.

Taking a holiday has become less likely to mean going away somewhere for some rest and relaxation, but instead, taking a break from paying the monthly bills, mortgages and credit card repayments.

Some companies have scaled back their operations, while others closed down all together, resulting in millions joining the unemployment statistics. The Economist believes the overall global economic toll to be incalculable. However, it suggests the figure will be in the order of $10.3 trillion in forgone GDP over 2020-2021 (The Economist, 2021).

Marketing events, exhibitions and trade expos designed to showcase companies’ products and services have also found themselves falling foul of the pandemic. The list is extensive and varied from cars and commercial vehicles, pleasure boats, wedding services, tourism and travel, business-to-business marketing, security services, etc. The premier Dutch flower gardens at Keukenhof, an indispensable shop window for local bulb growers, can attract as many as 1.5 million visitors to see the 7 million spring flowers. In 2020, the garden was closed, although a virtual tour was organised by the promoters and posted on YouTube. The internationally renowned Crufts dog show, which attracts as many as 22,000 dogs each year, just managed to beat the UK lockdown.

In some countries, religious gatherings have been severely restricted or even banned altogether, while the number of people permitted to attend funerals has been strictly curtailed. The annual Hajj pilgrimage performed in Saudi Arabia by Muslims from around the world was dramatically scaled back because of the pandemic. Normally around 2 million pilgrims would travel to Mecca, but numbers have been restricted to as few as 10,000 and attendance qualification required that all participants had to reside within the Kingdom.

Here in the UK, the lockdown has been far less draconian than the measures applied in some other countries. One consequence of intended lockdowns being announced, appears to have been panic buying around the world, with certain food types and hygiene products being the preference. Also, within the UK, government public information campaigns reminded everyone to wash their hands, wear a face mask and observe social distancing protocols. All very sensible advice. However, we must remember that face masks will put deaf people reliant on lip reading at a distinct disadvantage. Moreover, the visually impaired may find it difficult to comply with social distancing regulations, especially as guide dogs are unlikely to have been trained to manage these situations.

We must not forget the stress that people will have experienced due to their respective government’s lockdowns by staying at home for most, if not all, the time. The personal impact across the world has been extensive, with many tragic stories unfolding. Although there are those who have found the situation far from easy, there are stories of some people being very happy about being locked down who have made good use of their time.

Across much of the world, people have been compliant in following their respective government’s directives, although there have been some examples of civil disorder as people have protested against these measures. What concerns me is that these so far isolated incidents could become more widespread if the pandemic continues for an extended period. There is already talk of the expectation of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) developing among frontline health workers, paramedics and care home workers, along with food store employees, the police, etc. These are the people on the front line who put their personal safety at risk every day.

My own personal observations have also led me to conclude that, despite the rising case numbers and death counts, there are some people who are just not taking the situation seriously. Others, like the ostrich with its head buried in the sand, seem to be in total denial about what is really happening.

Did business continuity management make a difference?

The twentieth century witnessed three influenza pandemics – Asian flu (1957-1958), Hong Kong flu (1968-1969) and Spanish flu (1918-1919). The deadliest of these outbreaks was the latter, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide. Indeed, this was more than the total number of victims claimed by World War I.

The first two of these twentieth-century pandemics occurred even before the existence of anything that could have been remotely referred to as business continuity. The third happened in the late 1960s, just as organisations were beginning to appreciate the need for IT disaster recovery, the forerunner to business continuity management (BCM). Even so, at that time there were no yardsticks or best-practice guidelines to refer to, until the arrival of the business continuity industry standards. These included the BCI’s Good Practice Guidelines, PAS 56, BS 25999 and, in 2012, ISO 22301. Finally, over 40 years after the Hong Kong flu, BCM had come of age, thereby providing organisations with a framework to help build and improve their resilience.

Ironically, while public health pandemic planning had previously been very reactive, in 1976 in the US, authorities initiated efforts in order to be better prepared for future pandemics. In this respect, the concept of pandemic planning has been a couple of decades ahead of the evolution of business continuity.

It was while the Hong Kong flu was spreading across the world that so too was information technology. Third generation computers, such as the IBM System/360 and the ICL 1900 series were beginning to oil the wheels of commerce. Moving onto the twenty-first century, surveys and horizon reports often point to ICT failure, along with cyberattacks, as being among the most common cause of business interruption. Even so, during a pandemic, ICT can now often be the solution rather than the cause of the problem, as explored in section 7.4. This has certainly been the case with COVID-19. After all, this is one type of virus that computer systems are not susceptible to, even if the IT department staff are.

There is no doubt in my mind that anyone involved in those early days of business continuity was a pioneer – they were simply trailblazing! But with that outbreak of Hong Kong flu being more than 50 years ago, before COVID-19 took the world by storm, there were very few individuals left in the business world who had any first-hand experience of managing a business through a pandemic. Even so, I believe that organisations that have seriously embraced BCM, in addition to preparing pandemic contingency plans, will have only helped to build themselves a more resilient enterprise. Moreover, their chance of coming out intact on the other side of the pandemic can only have been improved by these actions.

CHAPTER 2: WHAT EXACTLY IS A PANDEMIC?

Historically, pandemics can be traced back many centuries. A simple definition that has been used to describe them is “a contagion that has gone global”. Although a pandemic can also affect the animal and bird populations, this book focuses on the human-to-human spread of potentially fatal contagions.

The WHO tells us that this worldwide spread of a novel disease will initially have no vaccines or known cures available, and neither will people have any immunity. Generally, the most common cause of pandemics has been influenza, although in the past 75 years, almost 400 new infectious diseases have been discovered. Since 1971, scientists have identified 25 new pathogens for which we have no vaccines and no treatment, although most have not developed into a pandemic (Quick, 2018, p 41).

Influenza in its various viral forms certainly deserves more than just a passing mention in the history of pandemics. Most notable is the 1918-1919 Spanish influenza outbreak, which alone is estimated to have killed more than 50 million. History has taught us that we can expect an average of three influenza pandemics each century.

In the Middle Ages, caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria, the bubonic plague, or Black Death as it became known, killed close to 20% of the global population. It ran from 1347-1351, and resulted in an estimated 75 million fatalities out of a world population of 450 million. Localised plague outbreaks do still occur in various parts of the world, but they are generally controlled by antibiotics.

One exception is HIV/AIDS, which was identified around 1980 and has killed almost 40 million in the four decades since its discovery. It is estimated that as many people, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, are also living with the disease. The origin of HIV/AIDS has been traced back to Cameroon in Africa, as early as 1910. The disease had been in existence for around 50 years before it finally exploded onto the global scene. There is still no vaccine or known cure, but it is now treatable by using what is known as antiretroviral medication.

Perhaps also worthy of mention, although maybe not in the same league as the aforementioned pandemic causes, since first spreading from its origin in the Indian sub-continent around 200 years ago, over an extended period cholera has also killed millions. The WHO has estimated an annual case diagnosis of up to five million, with as many as 120,000 associated deaths. Cholera is treatable and a combination of rehydration and antibiotics are usually prescribed. However, if left untreated, cholera can kill in a matter of hours.

“The Covid-19 pandemic has made clear that our health is inextricably tied to larger environmental issues. Increased population density, global travel, deforestation, large-scale farming and melting of the permafrost has disrupted animal habitats, bringing them in closer contact to humans. This has raised the risk of more frequent zoonotic disease outbreaks and therefore a higher potential for another pandemic.”

(Morrin, 2020)

In 2020, the threat from the novel virus subsequently named SARS-CoV-2 appeared. We now know that this causes the potentially fatal disease that was named COVID-19.

Depending upon the nature of a contagion, it can be transmitted from human to human in any one of a number of ways, including:

•Airborne infection – usually caused by organisms that can survive suspended in the air for long periods.

•Droplet infection – occurs usually from the droplets generated by coughing or sneezing.

•Vector-borne – e.g. carried by mosquitoes, fleas, mites, ticks.

•Direct contact infection – can result from skin-to-skin contact or exposure to contaminated body fluids.

•Indirect contact infection – can occur by touching a contaminated surface (e.g. door handles, handrails or elevator call buttons).

2.1 Known diseases that could cause a pandemic

The WHO has listed a number of diseases on its website that it believes have the potential to develop into epidemics and pandemics. Some of those listed already have achieved epidemic or pandemic status, and their names will no doubt be familiar to readers. Our business continuity and pandemic response plans should be prepared and maintained with these in mind.

It is also worth noting that, over time, the WHO will keep that list updated to reflect any emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, as and when they are identified. In the meantime, I have broken these particular threats that we are facing into three sections. Those that are:

1. Capable of causing a global pandemic.

2. Capable of causing devastating regional epidemics.

3. Those that have the potential to be used in the pursuit of biological warfare and bioterrorism, to which section 2.2 has been devoted.

2.1.1 Global pandemic contenders

These include respiratory viruses, such as pandemic influenza, coronaviruses (between 2002-2019 there have been three), Nipah virus and a small number of others, including as yet unidentified emerging infectious diseases.1

2.1.2 Devastating regional epidemic candidates

This would typically include Ebola, Zika, Yellow Fever and Dengue.2

2.2 Biological warfare and terrorism

Although many politicians and scientists have pointed at a Wuhan wet market as the source of the coronavirus, other theories understandably serve to contradict. One such alternative relates to biological warfare or bioterrorism. Before discussing the origin of the virus in more detail in chapter 3, I wanted to consider the implications and history of such a theory.

Also known as germ warfare, the concept of biological warfare has been around for at least three millennia, and examples can be traced back to the fourteenth century BC (Barras & Greub, 2014). There is a distinction to be made between biological warfare and bioterrorism. The former would usually constitute a country-on-country attack, while the latter would be performed by a terrorist group that is likely to be working to a different agenda.

One biological weapon that has been used in a number of terrorist attacks is anthrax, although, to date, it has only been used in very small quantities. Even so, concern remains over the potential long-term effects of a large-scale anthrax terrorist attack on a metropolitan area. This is presumed likely to be more devastating than a nuclear attack.

During World War II, the British tested the effectiveness of anthrax on the Scottish island of Gruinard. It was concluded that had, for example, Berlin been bombed with anthrax-based biological weapons, it would still have been uninhabitable at least 30 years later (Cole, 1988). By comparison, the rebuilding of Hiroshima after the dropping of the first atomic bomb in 1945, started within four years (Blackford, 2007). Estimated casualties from a mass bioterrorism attack using agents, such as anthrax, smallpox or plague vary considerably from half a million to 30 million (Clark, 2007) and (Richardson, et al., 2007).

In the 1970s, the United Nations initiated the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), which came into force in 1975. This BWC was better known as the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (United Nations, 2017). However, this did not really address any ambiguities, doubts or suspicions that countries may have harboured regarding other countries biological warfare capabilities and their subsequent compliance with the BWC.

“Only 16 countries plus Taiwan have had or are currently suspected of having biological weapons programs: Canada, China, Cuba, France, Germany,Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Libya, North Korea, Russia, South Africa, Syria, the United Kingdom and the United States.

There is widespread consensus against the possession and use of biological weapons. Most countries are party to the Biological and Toxin Weapon Convention, but there is no way to know whether countries are complying with their commitments.”

(NTI, 2015)

Regardless of whether a biological warfare or terrorist attack was launched on a specific target using a biological agent, such as anthrax, apart from perhaps the scale of the attack, the end result would be the same. For the purpose of this chapter, the terms biological warfare, germ warfare and bioterrorism should be considered as interchangeable.

“Bioterrorism is the deliberate release of viruses, bacteria, or other agents used to cause illness or death in people, animals and plants. They (the virus and bacteria, etc.) are typically found in nature.”

(Costgliola & Quaqliata, 2008, p 7)

Biological terrorism is something that has captured the imagination of television and movie producers. In the BBC series ‘Spooks’, Season Six, Episode One, saw MI5 operatives racing to stop a member of a rogue government unleashing a bio-weapon in the UK. Similarly, the third season of the US production of ‘24’, followed the exploits of Jack Bauer and the fictitious Counter Terrorism Unit, while the team attempted to prevent the release of a deadly virus in Los Angeles. Various movies followed the bio-terrorism theme, the first of which I remember seeing was entitled ‘The Satan Bug’, which is just one of several from that genre now listed on IMDb.

Terrorism that attacks a target using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as its modus operandi, is still in its infancy, with few examples recorded to date of actual incidents. Such an attack would involve chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) based weapons. However, within the UK, the country’s risk register specifies that a small-scale WMD attack, which could include a bioterrorism attack, is considered to have a ‘medium’ probability over the next five years. Moreover, the corresponding relative impact is also recorded as ‘medium’.

2.2.1 Historical use of biological weapons

There is evidence of Russia allegedly targeting defected former KGB officers on UK soil. Using the chemical nerve agent, Novichok, Sergei Skripal was targeted in 2018. In 2006, the lethal radiological agent polonium-210 was used to kill Alexander Litvinenko. Moreover, while working in London, dissident Bulgarian Georgi Markov was also assassinated, allegedly by his country’s security services. A micro engineered pellet containing ricin that was fired into his leg from an umbrella. Of these three state-enacted examples, only the use of ricin was actually a biological attack.

Statistically, the use of WMD by terrorists has averaged eight per annum globally since 1970. To date, if the single terrorist objective was mass casualties, then a combined total of 640 fatalities over that 50 year period (>13 per annum) does not represent a major success. The bomb and bullet still remain much more accessible to terrorists than WMDs, although an increase in the use of knives and vehicle-ramming attacks has certainly been noted.

The UK’s National Counter Terrorism Security Office (NaCTSO) position on the threat of WMD-related terrorist attacks is:

“The likelihood of a Chemical, Biological or Radiological attack remains low, largely due to the difficulty of obtaining the materials and the complexity of using them effectively.”

(Clark, 2012)

However, as an aside, perhaps it is worth noting that NaCTSO makes no such similar claim about nuclear weapons. UK security services endorse the NaCTSO view, and its website says of chemical, biological and radiological devices:

“To date, no such attacks have taken place in the UK. Alternative methods of attack, such as explosive devices, are more reliable, safer and easier for terrorists to acquire or use. Nevertheless, it is possible that Al Qaida, ISIL or other terrorist groups may seek to use chemical, biological or radiological material against the West.”

(MI5, 2020)

To date, chemical weapon attacks appear to have been terrorists’ preferred WMD. Since 1974, there have been close to 400 WMD terrorist attacks chronicled, although, to date, no nuclear attacks have been documented. Fatalities have resulted from the chemical and biological but none from radiological terrorism (US Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland, 2019).

Figure 1: CBRN terrorist attacks from 1974-2018

Anthrax is just one of several lethal biological agents. Its use by terrorists immediately following the 9/11 Twin Towers terrorist attack in eight separate incidents in the US, killing six, accentuated the existence of a bioterrorism threat (Brett, 2003). Anthrax can be found in nature and is common in livestock that can pass it to humans. However, unlike other biological agents, anthrax cannot be passed from human to human. To be effective, the victim must inhale or ingest anthrax spores, or an open wound be contaminated.

The UK National Risk Register (NRR) for 2017, 2015 and 2012, while recognising the threat, only posted a threat rating of ‘medium’ for small-scale CBRN attack and ‘medium-low’ for a large-scale CBRN attack. However, the more recently published 2020 UK NRR has split the CBRN threat into ‘small’, ‘medium’ and ‘large’ CBRN attacks. Furthermore, while the ‘small’ and ‘medium’ attacks have been classified as ‘medium-low’, the large-scale attack has been upgraded to ‘medium’. The 2020 version is available from:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2020.

Since 1981, several examples of bioterrorism using anthrax have been recorded in the US. In addition, there have also been cases where ricin, botulinum, salmonella and HIV/AIDS were used. While the majority of incidents occurred in the US, Israel and Japan were also targeted (US Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland, 2019).

An alternative bioterrorism weapon is ricin, which is a naturally occurring toxin extracted from castor beans. In November 2011, the FBI announced the arrest of four US citizens who planned to manufacture ricin and expose other US citizens to the deadly toxin (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2011).

Palestinian suicide bombers have been known to regularly combine the traditional use of explosives with biological and chemical agents (Cole, 2007). AIDS-contaminated blood, rat poison and hydrogen cyanide have been used to maximise the effect of the terrorist acts. This puts not only any survivors of the blast at greater risk, but also first responders, too. Cole also highlights the psychological effects generated by the biological anthrax attacks in the US in 2001, demonstrating that the fear factor associated with this type of terrorist weapon is substantial.

More recently, concern was expressed in Forbes during 2014, regarding the bioterrorism intentions of the so-called Islamic State using the Ebola virus. Either a lone wolf or groups infected by the Ebola virus would act as carriers of the contagion:

“ISIS may already be thinking of using Ebola as a low-tech weapon of bio-terror, says a national security expert, who notes that the ”Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” and terror groups like it wouldn’t even have to weaponize the virus to attempt to wreak strategic global infection.”

(Dorminey, 2014)

Although ISIS has since lost some of its power base in Syria and Iraq, it would be premature to dismiss its presence as a terrorist threat.

Writing in Scientific American