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- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Climate change and global warming are highly affecting the cultivation conditions worldwide. This bachelor thesis analyses the global warming related changes on the global green coffee market – especially for C. arabica – to derivate approaches for German coffee producers to adapt their procurement strategies. In this context this thesis forecasts the worldwide supply and demand for C. arabica for the year 2050, which shows a large gap between C. arabica supply and demand in 2050 – and presents a limited number of approaches for German coffee producers to reduce the impacts of the climate change and to secure the C. arabica supply. This thesis shows that German coffee producers need to act and proposes how this could be realised. This bachelor thesis was submitted at Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences in 2015 under the title: „Analysis of the climate change related changes on the global green coffee market for the derivation of procurement strategy alternatives of German coffee producers“.
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This bachelor thesis was submitted at Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences in 2015 under the title: „Analysis of the climate change related changes on the global green coffee market for the derivation of procurement strategy alternatives of German coffee producers“.
I Kurzfassung/Abstract
Kurzfassung
Der Klimawandel und die globale Erwärmung beeinflussen die Anbaubedingungen weltweit. Diese Bachelorarbeit analysiert die durch den Klimawandel hervorgerufenen Entwicklungen auf dem weltweiten Rohkaffeemarkt insbesondere im Hinblick auf den Arabica Kaffee, um daraus Ansätze für deutsche Kaffeeproduzenten abzuleiten um diesen Entwicklungen entgegenzuwirken. In diesem Zusammenhang prognostiziert diese Bachelorarbeit das weltweite Angebot sowie die weltweite Nachfrage für Arabica Kaffee für das Jahr 2050 und zeigt dadurch eine größer werdende Differenz zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage auf. Des Weiteren wird eine Auswahl von Ansätzen dargelegt, die deutsche Kaffeeproduzenten nutzen können, um die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf den Arabica Kaffee Anbau zu verringern und das Angebot an Arabica Kaffee abzusichern. Die Arbeit schließt mit dem Ergebnis, dass ein Handeln der deutschen Kaffeeproduzenten nötig ist und gibt einen Vorschlag, wie dies zu realisieren wäre.
Abstract
Climate change and global warming are highly affecting the cultivation conditions worldwide. This bachelor thesis analyses the global warming related changes on the global green coffee market – especially for C. arabica – to derivate approaches for German coffee producers to adapt their procurement strategies. In this context this thesis forecasts the worldwide supply and demand for C. arabica for the year 2050, which shows a large gap between C. arabica supply and demand in 2050 – and presents a limited number of approaches for German coffee producers to reduce the impacts of the climate change and to secure the C. arabica supply. This thesis shows that German coffee producers need to act and proposes how this could be realised.
II Table of Contents
K
URZFASSUNG
/A
BSTRACT
T
ABLE OF
C
ONTENTS
L
IST OF
F
IGURES
L
IST OF
T
ABLES
A
BBREVIATIONS
I
NTRODUCTION
1.1 C
ONTEXT
1.2 R
ELEVANCE
1.3 S
YNOPSIS
L
ITERATURE
R
EVIEW
2.1 C
OFFEE INTRODUCTION
2.2 G
LOBAL PRODUCTION AND DEMAND NOW AND IN THE FUTURE
2.3 I
MPORTANCE OF COFFEE FOR
E
UROPE AND
G
ERMANY
2.4 C
LIMATE CHANGE AND THE GENERAL IMPACT
2.5 M
EXICAN SITUATION NOW
2.6 M
EXICAN SITUATION
2050
2.7 C
LIMATE CHANGE RELATED COFFEE SUITABILITY CHANGES UNTIL
2050
M
ETHODOLOGY
3.1 S
COPE OF THE STUDY AND METHODS FOR
D
ATA
C
OLLECTION
3.2 M
ETHODS FOR CALCULATING THE COFFEE BALANCE
3.2.1 How the supply of C. arabica for 2050 is calculated
3.2.2 How the demand of C. arabica for 2050 is calculated
R
ESULTS
4.1 C
OFFEE
B
ALANCE
2050
4.1.1 Results
4.1.2 Analysis
4.2 P
ROCUREMENT STRATEGY ALTERNATIVES
4.2.1 Environmental sustainable approaches
4.2.2 Economical sustainable approaches
4.2.3 Social sustainable approaches
C
ONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
D
ISCUSSION
A
PPENDUM
P
UBLICATION BIBLIOGRAPHY
A
PPENDICES
III List of Figures
F
IGURE
1: P
RODUCTION
,
CONSUMPTION AND
ICO
INDICATOR PRICES
C
OFFEE YEARS
2002/03
TO
2012/13
F
IGURE
2: W
ORLD
C
ONSUMPTION
C
ALENDAR YEARS
2009
TO
2012
F
IGURE
3: W
ORLD
A
RABICA AND
R
OBUSTA
C
OFFEE
P
RODUCTION
C
ONVERGING
F
IGURE
4: C
OFFEE CONSUMPTION IN
C
HINA
1998
TO
2012
F
IGURE
5: V
OLUME AND VALUE OF RE
-
EXPORTS OF ALL FORMS OF COFFEE BY
G
ERMANY
(1990
TO
2011)
F
IGURE
6: G
LOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE UNTIL
2100 (
RELATIVE TO
1986-2005)
F
IGURE
7: C
OMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND SIMULATED CHANGE IN CONTINENTAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAND
(
YELLOW PANELS
), A
RCTIC AND
A
NTARCTIC
S
EPTEMBER SEA ICE EXTENT
(
WHITE PANELS
),
AND UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE MAJOR OCEAN BASINS
(
BLUE PANELS
)
F
IGURE
8: O
PTIMAL AND ABSOLUTE GROWING CONDITIONS FOR
A
RABICA AND
R
OBUSTA COFFEE
F
IGURE
9: P
ROJECTED CHANGES IN IN CROP SUITABILITY
,
TEMPERATURE
,
AND PRECIPITATION IN
M
ESOAMERICA BY
2050
F
IGURE
10: A
LTITUDINAL SHIFT IN SUITABILITY FOR
A
RABICA COFFEE IN THE
S
IERRA
M
ADRE DE
C
HIAPAS
, M
EXICO
,
F
IGURE
11: P
ROJECTED CHANGES IN SUITABILITY IN
M
ESOAMERICA BY
2050
AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE OF
18
DIFFERENT
G
LOBAL
C
IRCULATION
M
ODELS
(GCM)
USED FOR THE ANALYSIS
(
SMALL MAP
).
F
IGURE
12: C
URRENT AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR THE
S
IERRA
M
ADRE FOR THE PERIOD
2040
TO
2069 (“2050
S
”
)
F
IGURE
13: P
REDICTION OF THE RELATIVE CLIMATIC SUITABILITY FOR
A
RABICA COFFEE PRODUCTION IN
M
EXICO
, G
UATEMALA
, E
L
S
ALVADOR AND
N
ICARAGUA IN
2010
AND
2050 (
LARGE MAPS
),
COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION
(CV;
SMALL MAP TO THE LEFT
),
AND CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS
(
SMALL MAP
)
F
IGURE
14: G
LOBAL COFFEE LOCATION DATABASE AND MAJOR COFFEE GROWING REGIONS
. B
LUE POINTS REPRESENT
C. CANEPHORA
OCCURRENCE LOCATIONS
;
ORANGE POINTS LOCATIONS OF
C. ARABICA
BASED PRODUCTION
. G
REY SHADING AND BOLD NAMES REPRESENT REGIONS OF COFFEE PRODUCTION
F
IGURE
15: S
UITABILITY CHANGES BY THE
2050
S IN THE
RCP 6.0
SCENARIO
; A-D: A
RABICA
, E-G: R
OBUSTA
. H
ATCHING INDICATES THE CURRENT SUITABILITY DISTRIBUTION
; W
ARM COLOURS REPRESENT AREAS WITH NEGATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND COLD COLOURS POSITIVE CHANGES
F
IGURE
16: D
ISTRIBUTION OF SUITABILITY CHANGES BY A LATITUDE
,
B ALTITUDE
,
C COFFEE REGIONS
; C
ONTINUOUS LINES REPRESENT
C. ARABICA
,
DASHED LINES
C. CANEPHORA
,
BLACK LINES THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION
,
COLORED LINES FUTURE DISTRIBUTION
;
THE ERROR BARS INDICATE THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM ACROSS
RCP 6.0
MODEL MEANS
F
IGURE
17: D
ISTRIBUTION OF SUITABILITY CHANGES BY REGION AND THE LAND USE CLASSES WITH FOREST COVER AND WITHOUT FOREST COVER BY
2050
UNDER
RCP 6.0;
A
C. ARABICA
B
C. CANEPHORA
F
IGURE
18: S
UITABLE PRODUCTION AREAS FOR
C. ARABICA
IN THOUSAND HA
(2013
TO
2050)
F
IGURE
19:
C. ARABICA
YIELD FOR PRODUCTION AREAS IN THOUSAND
60-
KG BAGS
(2013
TO
2050
F
IGURE
20: P
ROJECTED COFFEE DEMAND IN THOUSAND
60-
KG BAGS
(2012
TO
2050)
F
IGURE
21: P
ROJECTED DEMAND CHANGES OF THE EMERGING COUNTRIES
(2012
TO
2050)
F
IGURE
22: I
MPACT AND CAPACITY APPROACHES TO ADAPTION PLANNING
F
IGURE
23: S
USTAINABILITY
:
THE TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE
F
IGURE
24: G
REEN COFFEE MARKET SHARE BY INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMPANY
(1998),
IN PERCENTAGE
. S
OURCE
:
VAN
D
IJK ET AL
. (1998,
P
. 34)
.
F
IGURE
25: M
ARKET SHARE OF ROASTING AND INSTANT MANUFACTURING COMPANIES
(1998),
IN PERCENTAGE
. S
OURCE
:
VAN
D
IJK ET AL
. (1998,
P
. 52)
.
F
IGURE
26: C
OMPARISON OF
F
AIRTRADE AND
M
ARKET
P
RICES FOR
C
OFFEE
, 1989–2014
F
IGURE
27: D
IFFERENCES IN
E
NVIRONMENTAL
P
RACTICES BETWEEN
F
AIR
T
RADE AND
C
ONVENTIONAL
C
OFFEE
P
RODUCERS IN
O
AXACA
, M
EXICO
(
PROPORTION OF PRODUCERS ENGAGING IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION PRACTICES
)
F
IGURE
28: B
ENEFITS AND COMMON GOALS IN DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIPS
(
BETWEEN
G
ERMAN DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR
)
IV List of Tables
T
ABLE
1: T
OTAL COFFEE CONSUMPTION IN THOUSAND
60-
KG BAGS
T
ABLE
2: P
ER CAPITA COFFEE CONSUMPTION IN KG
V Abbreviations
1 Introduction
1.1 Context
Coffee can be defined as one of the preferred drinks in the western hemisphere. A large part of the European population consumes coffee products on a daily basis and Oliver Wendell Holmes, an American physician, professor and poet, wrote about coffee „The morning cup of coffee has an exhilaration about it which the cheering influence of the afternoon or evening cup of tea cannot be expected to reproduce“1. The daily consumption of the product which has its origins in Ethiopia and is mostly grown in Central and South America as well as Asia is now at risk because of the global climate change2.
1.2 Relevance
As shown in many studies, the coffee business is a constantly growing one. While the consumption was at 57.9 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 1964, the consumption was at 142.0 million 60-kg bags in the year 2012. This leads to an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1.9 %3. But whilst the coffee demand is growing constantly, the production is highly volatile due to unstable impacts like the weather. 4
Germany with a net-import of 23.613 million 60-kg bags in 2012/13, as it is focussed in this dissertation, is the second largest coffee importing country behind the United States with a net-import of 42.305 million 60-kg bags. But the German imports are not only used for consumption, Germany has the largest re-export volume worldwide. Between 2000 and 2011 Germany was responsible for 46.2 % of the world’s re-exports of green coffee, 21.9 % of roasted coffee and 18.8 % of soluble coffee. This indicates that nearly half of the German import is re-exported. 5
Besides the western hemisphere also the coffee market in Asia is growing. Behind Japan with its 8.4 million 60-kg bags in 2013, China- with an AAGR over 12 %- is getting more and more attention on the global coffee market6. If China maintains this growth rate, the consumption can reach 2.8 million 60-kg bags in 2020 which would boost China into the top ten of coffee consuming countries7. This assumption is also backed by the statements made on the Africa Fine Coffee Conference in February 2015 which implicate that the demand is likely to rise by almost 25 % in the next five years due to an increasing westernisation of the societies in India, China and Latin America8.
Summarised, it can be said that the demand of coffee will grow within the next decades. However, the production of the green coffee is at risk because of the global climate change. The C. arabica plant (Arabica Coffee) which is responsible for approximately 55 % of the worldwide coffee production is a very sensitive plant. An average temperature increase of two degrees in the growing areas in combination with more frequently extreme weather events can lead to mayor crop losses. 9, 10 This scenario will almost certainly occur and therefore it will be reviewed in this dissertation. But as plants of the C. canephora coffee (Robusta Coffee) are better adapted to slightly higher temperatures and less affected by the climate changes the dissertation will mainly focus on the C. arabica11. In 2014/2015 55 % of the worldwide produced coffee is expected to be C. arabica coffee but this share is expected to decline in the future12. This will have a considerable impact on the coffee producers within the EU as C. arabica accounted for 62.8 % of all coffee imports in 201313.
