Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market - Kathy Lien - E-Book

Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market E-Book

Kathy Lien

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Play the forex markets to win with this invaluable guide to strategy and analysis Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market gives forex traders the strategies and skills they need to approach this highly competitive arena on an equal footing with major institutions. Now in it's third edition, this invaluable guide provides the latest statistics, data, and analysis of recent events, giving you the most up-to-date picture of the state of the fast-moving foreign exchange markets. You'll learn how the interbank currency markets work, and how to borrow strategy from the biggest players to profit from trends. Clear and comprehensive, this book describes the technical and fundamental strategies that allow individual traders to compete with bank traders, and gives you comprehensive explanations of strategies involving intermarket relationships, interest rate differentials, option volatilities, news events, and more. The companion website gives you access to video seminars on how to be a better trader, providing another leg up in this competitive market. The multi-billion-dollar foreign exchange market is the most actively traded market in the world. With online trading platforms now offering retail traders direct access to the interbank foreign exchange market, there's never been a better time for individuals to learn the ropes of this somewhat secretive area. This book is your complete guide to forex trading, equipping you to play with the big guys and win--on your own terms. * Understand how the foreign currency markets work, and the forces that move them * Analyze the market to profit from short-term swings using time-tested strategies * Learn a variety of technical trades for navigating overbought or oversold markets * Examine the unique characteristics of various currency pairs Many of the world's most successful traders have made the bulk of their winnings in the currency market, and now it's your turn. Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market is the must-have guide for all foreign exchange traders.

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Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

About the Author

Chapter 1: Foreign Exchange— The Fastest Growing Market of Our Time

EURUSD and Corporate Profitability

Nikkei and U.S. Dollar

George Soros

Chinese Yuan Revaluation and Bonds

Comparing the FX Market with Futures and Equities

FX versus Futures

Who Are the Players in the FX Market?

Chapter 2: Historical Events in the FX Markets

Bretton Woods: Anointing the Dollar as the World Currency (1944)

The End of Bretton Woods: Free Market Capitalism Is Born (1971)

Plaza Accord—Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar (1985)

George Soros—The Man Who Broke the Bank of England

Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998)

Introduction of the Euro (1999)

Chapter 3: What Moves the Currency Market?

Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis

Currency Forecasting—What Bookworms and Economists Look At

Chapter 4: A Deeper Look at the FX Market

What Are the Best Times to Trade for Individual Currency Pairs?

Chapter 5: What Are the Most Market Moving Economic Data?

Relative Importance of Data Changes over Time

Resources

Chapter 6: What Are Currency Correlations, and How Can We Use Them?

Positive/Negative Correlations—What They Mean and How to Use Them

Chapter 7: Trade Parameters for Various Market Conditions

Keep a Trading Journal

Step #1: Determine the Trading Environment

Step #2: Determine the Time Frame for Trade

Risk Management

Chapter 8: Technical Trading Strategy: Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Chapter 9: Technical Strategy: Trading with Double Bollinger Bands

Using Double Bollinger Bands to Pick Tops and Bottoms

Chapter 10: Technical Trading Strategy: Fading the Double Zeros

Strategy Rules

Chapter 11: Technical Trading Strategy: Waiting for the Deal

Strategy Rules

Chapter 12: Technical Trading Strategy: Inside Days Breakout Play

Strategy Rules

Chapter 13: Technical Trading Strategy: Fader

Strategy Rules

Chapter 14: Technical Trading Strategy: 20-Day Breakout Trade

Strategy Rules

Chapter 15: Technical Trading Strategy: Channels

Examples

Chapter 16: Technical Trading Strategy: Perfect Order

Examples

Chapter 17: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Pairing Strong with Weak

Chapter 18: Fundamental Trading Strategy: The Leveraged Carry Trade

How Do Carry Trades Work?

Why Do Carry Trades Work?

When Will Carry Trades Work Best?

How Much Risk Are You Willing to Take?

When Will Carry Trades Not Work?

The Importance of Risk Aversion

Chapter 19: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Macro Event Driven Trade

Know When Big Events Occur: Here Is a List of a Few Important Ones

Chapter 20: Quantitative Easing and Its Impact on Forex

U.S. Quantitative Easing

UK Quantitative Easing

Japan Quantitative Easing

Eurozone Quantitative Easing

Chapter 21: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator

Gold

Oil

Iron Ore and Dairy Prices

Trading Opportunity

Chapter 22: Fundamental Strategy: Using Bond Spreads as a Leading Indicator for FX

Calculating Interest Rate Differentials and Following the Currency Pair Trends

Interest Rate Differentials: Leading Indicator, Coincident Indicator, or Lagging Indicator?

Chapter 23: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Risk Reversals

What Does a Risk Reversal Table Look Like?

How Can You Use This Information?

Chapter 24: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Using Option Volatilities to Time Market Movements

How to Use Option Volatilities to Trade Forex

Tracking Volatilities on Your Own

Chapter 25: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Intervention

Japan

Switzerland

Eurozone

Chapter 26: Currency Profiles and Outlook

Currency Profile: U.S. Dollar (USD)

Chapter 27: Currency Profile: Euro (EUR)

Broad Economic Overview

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Makers—The European Central Bank

Important Indicators for the Euro

Chapter 28: Currency Profile: British Pound (GBP)

Broad Economic Overview

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Makers— Bank of England

Important Economic Indicators for the United Kingdom

Chapter 29: Currency Profile: Swiss Franc (CHF)

Broad Economic Overview

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Makers— Swiss National Bank

Important Characteristics of the Swiss Franc

Important Economic Indicators for Switzerland

Chapter 30: Currency Profile: Japanese Yen (JPY)

Economic Overview

Abenomics

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Makers

Important Economic Indicators for Japan

Chapter 31: Currency Profile: Australian Dollar (AUD)

Broad Economic Overview

Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Important Economic Indicators for Australia

Chapter 32: Currency Profile: New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Broad Economic Overview

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Makers— Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Important Characteristics of the New Zealand Dollar

Important Economic Indicators for New Zealand

Chapter 33: Currency Profile: Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Broad Economic Performance

Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Important Economic Indicators for Canada

Index

End User License Agreement

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Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1: Foreign Exchange— The Fastest Growing Market of Our Time

Figure 1.1 USDJPY Chart

Figure 1.2 Centralized Market Structure

Figure 1.3 Decentralized Market Structure

Chapter 2: Historical Events in the FX Markets

Figure 2.1 Plaza Accord Price Action

Figure 2.2 GBPDEM after Soros

Figure 2.3 GBPUSD after Soros

Figure 2.4 Asian Crisis Price Action

Figure 2.5 USDJPY Asian Crisis Price Action

Figure 2.6 EURUSD Price Since Launch

Chapter 3: What Moves the Currency Market?

Figure 3.1 Dow and USDEUR

Figure 3.2 Charting Economic Surprises

Figure 3.3 EURUSD Chart

Figure 3.4 USDJPY September 11th Chart

Figure 3.5 Monetary Model

Figure 3.6 Real Interest Rate Model

Figure 3.7 The DAX Index and the EURUSD

Figure 3.8 Currency Substitution Model

Chapter 4: A Deeper Look at the FX Market

Figure 4.1 Currency Pair Ranges

Figure 4.2 Asian Session Volatility

Figure 4.3 U.S. Session Volatility

Figure 4.4 European Session Volatility

Figure 4.5 U.S.–Europe Overlap

Figure 4.6 Europe–Asia Overlap

Chapter 5: What Are the Most Market Moving Economic Data?

Figure 5.1 Range of EURUSD Following Economic Releases

Figure 5.2 EURUSD Daily Chart

Chapter 6: What Are Currency Correlations, and How Can We Use Them?

Figure 6.1 presents a sample of the output results

Chapter 7: Trade Parameters for Various Market Conditions

Figure 7.1 EURUSD Chart

Figure 7.2 Currency Checklist

Figure 7.3 Trend/Range Trading Rules

Figure 7.4 USDJPY Bollinger Band Chart

Figure 7.5 Risk Reversals

Chapter 8: Technical Trading Strategy: Multiple Time Frame Analysis

Figure 8.1 USDJPY Monthly Chart

Figure 8.2 USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

Figure 8.3 USDCAD Weekly Chart

Figure 8.4 USDCAD Hourly Chart

Figure 8.5 CHFJPY Hourly Chart

Figure 8.6 CHFJPY Daily Chart

Figure 8.7 CHFJPY 15-Minute Chart

Chapter 9: Technical Strategy: Trading with Double Bollinger Bands

Figure 9.1 EURUSD Bollinger Band Daily Chart

Figure 9.2 EURUSD Bollinger Band Daily Chart

Figure 9.3 EURUSD Bollinger Band Daily Chart

Figure 9.4 EURUSD Short Trade

Figure 9.5 EURUSD Long Trade

Figure 9.6 GBPUSD Bollinger Band Trend Range Chart

Figure 9.7 USDJPY Long Trade

Figure 9.8 GBPUSD Short Trade

Chapter 10: Technical Trading Strategy: Fading the Double Zeros

Figure 10.1 USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

Figure 10.2 GBPUSD 15-Minute Chart

Figure 10.3 USDCAD 15-Minute Chart

Chapter 11: Technical Trading Strategy: Waiting for the Deal

Figure 11.1 GBPUSD 5-Minute Chart

Figure 11.2 GBPUSD 10-Minute Chart

Figure 11.3 GBPUSD 15-Minute Chart

Chapter 12: Technical Trading Strategy: Inside Days Breakout Play

Figure 12.1 EURGBP Inside Day Chart

Figure 12.2 NZDUSD Inside Day Chart

Figure 12.3 EURCAD Inside Day Chart

Chapter 13: Technical Trading Strategy: Fader

Figure 13.1 USDJPY Daily Chart

Figure 13.2 USDJPY 60-Minute Chart

Figure 13.3 EURUSD Daily Chart

Figure 13.4 EURUSD 60-Minute Chart

Chapter 14: Technical Trading Strategy: 20-Day Breakout Trade

Figure 14.1 GBPUSD Daily Chart

Figure 14.2 EURUSD Daily Chart

Figure 14.3 AUDUSD Daily Chart

Chapter 15: Technical Trading Strategy: Channels

Figure 15.1 USDCAD 15-Minute Chart

Figure 15.2 EURGBP 15-Minute Chart

Figure 15.3 EURUSD 15-Minute Chart

Chapter 16: Technical Trading Strategy: Perfect Order

Figure 16.1 EURUSD Perfect Order Setup

Figure 16.2 USDSGD Perfect Order Setup

Figure 16.3 USDJPY Perfect Order Setup

Chapter 17: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Pairing Strong with Weak

Figure 17.1 EURGBP Daily Chart—Quantitative Easing

Figure 17.2 NZDCAD Daily Chart—Oil

Figure 17.3 EURUSD Daily Chart

Chapter 18: Fundamental Trading Strategy: The Leveraged Carry Trade

Figure 18.1 Leveraged Carry Trade Example

Figure 18.2 AUDCHF Carry Trade Example 1

Figure 18.3 Carry Trade Profitability

Figure 18.4 AUDCHF Carry Trade Example 2

Chapter 19: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Macro Event Driven Trade

Figure 19.1 EURUSD Ukraine Crisis

Figure 19.2 EURUSD Sovereign Debt Crisis

Figure 19.3 USDJPY Global Financial Crisis

Figure 19.4 EURUSD Election Trade

Figure 19.5 EURUSD G7 Meeting

Figure 19.6 USDCHF Iraq War

Chapter 20: Quantitative Easing and Its Impact on Forex

Figure 20.1 EURUSD US Fed QE

Figure 20.2 GBPUSD UK BoE QE

Figure 20.3 USDJPY Japan BoJ QE

Figure 20.4 EURUSD EZ ECB QE

Chapter 21: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator

Figure 21.1 AUDUSD and Gold

Figure 21.2 CADUSD and Oil

Chapter 22: Fundamental Strategy: Using Bond Spreads as a Leading Indicator for FX

Figure 22.1 Yield Spread Table

Figure 22.2 EURUSD and Bond Spread

Figure 22.3 GBPUSD and Bond Spread

Figure 22.4 AUDNZD and Bond Spread

Chapter 23: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Risk Reversals

Figure 23.1 EURUSD Risk Reversal Chart

Figure 23.2 GBPUSD Risk Reversal Chart

Chapter 24: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Using Option Volatilities to Time Market Movements

Figure 24.1 GBPUSD Volatility Chart

Figure 24.2 USDJPY Volatility Chart

Chapter 25: Fundamental Trading Strategy: Intervention

Figure 25.1 USDJPY Chart

Figure 25.2 USDJPY Chart BoJ Intervention

Figure 25.3 USDJPY Chart BoJ Intervention

Figure 25.4 EURCHF 1.20 Peg

Figure 25.5 EURUSD Intervention

Chapter 26: Currency Profiles and Outlook

Figure 26.1 Dollar Index vs. Gold

Chapter 27: Currency Profile: Euro (EUR)

Figure 27.1 EURUSD 10-Year Chart

Chapter 28: Currency Profile: British Pound (GBP)

Figure 28.1 GBPUSD 10-Year Chart

Chapter 29: Currency Profile: Swiss Franc (CHF)

Figure 29.1 EURCHF 10-Year Chart

Chapter 30: Currency Profile: Japanese Yen (JPY)

Figure 30.1 USDJPY 10-Year Chart

Chapter 31: Currency Profile: Australian Dollar (AUD)

Figure 31.1 AUDUSD vs. 10-Year Yield Spread

Figure 31.2 AUDUSD 10-Year Chart

Chapter 32: Currency Profile: New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Figure 32.1 AUDUSD versus NZDUSD

Figure 32.2 NZDUSD 10-Year Chart

Chapter 33: Currency Profile: Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Figure 33.1 USDCAD 10-Year Chart

DAY TRADING AND SWING TRADING THE CURRENCY MARKET

Technical and FundamentalStrategies to Profit from Market Moves

Third Edition

Kathy Lien

 

Copyright © 2016 by Kathy Lien. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

The first edition was published as Day Trading the Currency Market by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. in 2005. The second edition was published as Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. in 2008.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

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Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Names: Lien, Kathy, 1980- | Lien, Kathy, 1980- . Day trading the currency market.

Title: Day trading and swing trading the currency market : technical and fundamental strategies to profit from market moves / Kathy Lien.

Description: Third edition. | Hoboken : Wiley, 2015. | Series: Wiley trading | Revised edition of the author's Day trading and swing trading the currency market, 2009. | Includes index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2015031925 | ISBN 9781119108412 (paperback) | ISBN 9781119220107 (ePDF) | ISBN 9781119220091 (ePub)

Subjects: LCSH: Foreign exchange futures. | Foreign exchange market. | Speculation. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Investments & Securities.

Classification: LCC HG3853 .L54 2015 | DDC 332.4/5— dc23 LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015031925

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © John Lund/Getty Images

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