DeMark Indicators E-Book

Jason Perl

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Bloomberg Professional
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 252

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2010

Beschreibung

Silver Medal Winner, Investing Category, Axiom Business Book Awards (2009) Winner: Book Series Cover Design, The Bookbinders Guild of New York/2009 New York Book Show Awards "Long a secret weapon for the hedge-fund elite," says Trader Monthly, the DeMark Indicators are now used by more than 35,000 traders. This book provides an easy-to-follow system for using the indicators to identify market turns as they happen. Author Jason Perl gives a concise introduction to thirty-nine of the DeMark Indicators, and then shows how to combine the indicators and time frames to achieve a higher probability of trading success. Thomas R. DeMark, the creator of the DeMark Indicators and one of the most well-respected practitioners of technical analysis wrote the Foreword to this book. This is the second book in the Bloomberg Market Essentials: Technical Analysis series, which covers the key elements of the most widely used technical analysis tools.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Praise

Title Page

Copyright Page

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Author’s Note

About DeMark Indicator Trademarks

CHAPTER 1 - TD Sequential Defining the Trend and Identifying Exhaustion Points

TD Setup

Interruption of a TD Buy Setup

Completion of the First Phase of TD Sequential

TD Sell Setup

Using TDST Levels to Determine the Underlying Trend Bias

TD Sequential vs. More Conventional Momentum Indicators

TD Buy Setup “Perfection”

Trading a TD Buy Setup

Trading a TD Sell Setup

TD Setup vs. TD Sequential Countdown

TD Buy Countdown Cancellation

TD Buy Countdown Cancellation and Recycle Qualifiers

TD Buy Countdown Recycle Qualifier

Entering a Long Position

Alternative Strategy for Entering a Long Position

TD Buy Termination Count

Frequently Asked Questions

TD Sell Countdown

TD Sell Countdown Cancellation

TD Sell Countdown Cancellation and Recycle Qualifiers

Alternative Strategy for Entering a Short Position

TD Sell Termination Count

Frequently Asked Questions

Combining Time Frames for Additional Confidence

Frequently Asked Questions about TD Sequential

TD Sequential: Recommended Settings

TD Aggressive Sequential

CHAPTER 2 - TD Combo

TD Combo Buy Setup

Differences in Buy Countdown: TD Combo vs. TD Sequential

TD Combo Buy Countdown

CHAPTER 3 - TD D-Wave

The Underlying Elliott Wave Principle

Elliott Wave Basics

DeMark’s Mechanized Version of Elliott Wave

The Time Aspect of the TD D-Wave Requirements

Calculating TD D-Wave Projections

The Ultimate Targets for TD D-Waves 5 and C

Bear Market Price Projections

TD D-Wave Frequently Asked Questions

CHAPTER 4 - TD Lines

The Three TD Demand Line Qualifiers

Calculating the Objective for a TD Demand Line Break

TD Supply Line Qualifiers

CHAPTER 5 - TD Retracements

CHAPTER 6 - TD Trend Factor and TD Propulsion

TD Trend Factor

Frequently Asked Questions

TD Propulsion

TD Propulsion: Recommended Settings

CHAPTER 7 - TD Oscillators

TD Range Expansion Index (TD REI)

TD DeMarker I and TD DeMarker II

TD Pressure

TD Rate of Change (TD ROC)

TD Alignment

CHAPTER 8 - TD Moving Averages

CHAPTER 9 - TD Range Projection, TD Range Expansion Breakout, and TD Channels

TD Range Projection

TD Range Expansion Breakout (TD REBO)

TD Channels

CHAPTER 10 - Short-Term Indicators TD Differential, TD Reverse Differential, ...

TD Differential

TD Reverse Differential

TD Anti-Differential Up Arrow

TD Anti-Differential Down Arrow

CHAPTER 11 - TD Waldo Patterns

CHAPTER 12 - Putting It All Together

CHAPTER 13 - Learning the DeMark Indicators

TDRS <GO>

Index

About Bloomberg

About the Author

Praise forDeMark Indicators

BY JASON PERL

“Tom DeMark, the man whose work inspired this book, is a unique, interesting, and ofttimes iconoclastic technical analyst. Simply put, he thinks about the markets differently from the way you or I do. So why should you read this book? Because, having read it, you will almost certainly think about the markets and technical analysis differently.”

—JOHN BOLLINGER, CFA, CMT, www.BollingerBands.com

“Jason Perl has taken the playbook from the market’s John Wooden, Tom DeMark, and translated it engagingly in a format that traders of all levels will appreciate. As one who has used these indicators for more than twenty years, I too am appreciative of Jason’s clarity.”

—PETER BORISH, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, Computer Trading Corporation

“Jason Perl has created a trading primer that will help both the professional and the layman interpret the DeMark indicators, which I believe represent the most robust and powerful methods to track securities and establish timely investment positions. Think of DeMark Indicators as the Rosetta stone of market-timing technology.”

—JOHN BURBANK, FOUNDER AND CIO, Passport Capital

“Having observed his market calls real time over the years, I can say that Jason Perl’s application of the DeMark indicators distinguishes his work from industry peers when it comes to market timing. This book demonstrates how traders can benefit from his insight, using the studies to identify the exhaustion of established trends or the onset of new ones. Whether you’re fundamentally or technically inclined, Perl’s DeMark Indicators is an invaluable trading resource.”

—LEON G. COOPERMAN, CHAIRMAN, Omega Advisors

“Jason Perl is the trader’s technician. DeMark indicators are a difficult subject matter, but Jason shows simply how the theory can be applied practically to markets. Whether you’re day-trading or taking medium-term positions, using the applications can only be of increased value.”

—DAVID KYTE, FOUNDER, Kyte Group Limited

Related titles also available from BLOOMBERG PRESS

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DeMark Indicatorsby Jason Perl

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Trading Option Greeksby Dan Passarelli

Breakthroughs in Technical Analysisedited by David Keller

Trading ETFsGaining an Edge with Technical Analysisby Deron Wagner

New Insights on Covered Call Writingby Richard Lehman and Lawrence G. McMillan

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A complete list of our titles is available at www.bloomberg.com/books

Attention Corporations

This book is available for bulk purchase at special discount. Special editions or chapter reprints can also be customized to specifications. For information, please e-mail Bloomberg Press, [email protected], Attention: Director of Special Markets, or phone [phone].

© 2008 by UBS AG. All rights reserved. Protected under the Berne Convention. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, please write: Permissions Department, Bloomberg Press, 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 or send an e-mail to [email protected].

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This publication contains the author’s opinions and is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information. It is sold with the understanding that the author, publisher, and Bloomberg L.P. are not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, investment-planning, or other professional advice. The reader should seek the services of a qualified professional for such advice; the author, publisher, and Bloomberg L.P. cannot be held responsible for any loss incurred as a result of specific investments or planning decisions made by the reader.

This book has been prepared by a group, subsidiary or affiliate of UBS AG (“UBS”). It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. This book is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This book is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and UBS is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. This book may not be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of UBS.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Perl, Jason.

Includes index.

Summary: “Tom DeMark, creator of the widely known and respected DeMark indicators, served as mentor to author Jason Perl. Perl defines and explains how the indicators bring a successful trading decision to conclusion, and offers aggressive or conservative alternative indications. With a chart or graphic explaining each indicator and a foreword by Tom DeMark”—Provided by publisher.

ISBN 978-1-57660-314-7

1. Investment analysis. 2. Stock price forecasting. 3. Financial instruments—Prices—Forecasting. I. Title.

HG4529.P475 2008

332.63′2042—dc22

2008030305

Foreword

I REMEMBER AS if it were yesterday: It was the first seminar I had given in London in some time, and the weather was unseasonably cold for March. The forecast was for sleet and snow, and I expected it to have a dampening effect on attendance. I had flown almost twelve hours to get there, but I didn’t mind the turn of events: I had been told to expect a large number of cash currency traders at the session, and, although I was actively involved in equities, commodities, and financial and currency futures, the cash currency market was a segment of the market I was not so well acquainted with. I arrived at the seminar, then, expecting to be speaking to only a handful of traders, but, much to my chagrin, not only was there already a large turnout, but there was also a large contingent of cash currency traders.

Just prior to the seminar, I had been introduced to a pleasant young man who actively followed the cash currency markets. Surprisingly, he also appeared to be well versed about many of my indicators. During my presentation, when the audience posed cash currency and indicator questions, he was prepared to answer them. His occasional observations interacted well with my presentation, and so I very much appreciated his contributions. That exchange served as the genesis of what was to become a long-term professional and personal friendship that endures to this day.

Little did I know on the day of the seminar that Jason Perl had only recently graduated from a prestigious English university and begun a currency consulting service. His deep knowledge of the markets and the indicators certainly impressed me, as well as the others in attendance, and made it appear that he was someone with much more experience. Not only did he hold his own with these professionals but seemed to me to be so knowledgeable that I frequently referred others to him. He was the only person I knew who was conversant in the cash currency markets who could apply my indicators to them effectively. Jason never let me down. The feedback I received from his clients was always very positive. I knew he enjoyed consulting, but, at the same time, I realized that he was destined for bigger and better professional challenges.

In 2000, Jason reported that he had accepted a position at a large investment bank. While I was happy for him, I was concerned that a large company might have a bureaucratic structure that would stifle Jason’s professional career and growth. That, however, turned out not to be the case. It soon became apparent that any apprehension I had had was ill founded. Jason’s skills transcended any corporate boundaries that may have existed. His knowledge of the indicators and their real-time application expanded beyond simply foreign currencies and extended quickly to other markets. This departure from his original job description was a clear indication that both his colleagues at the company and his corporate clients valued Jason’s unique analytical abilities, and he was more than willing to oblige them. His rapid ascent up the corporate ladder is a testament to his tremendous grasp of the indicators and the markets and his tireless, dedicated work ethic.

What is truly commendable is that Jason’s strong appetite for learning has always been aligned with his desire to teach and advise others. What is well known is the tremendous respect his clients and peers have for Jason as a market strategist, but what may be overlooked is the admiration that these same people have for Jason as a person. Far too often in the investment industry one takes for granted those who may have contributed to one’s success. Whether it be a mentor or a fellow worker who directs one along the path to success or teaches the intricacies and meaningful aspects of the business, or the family who makes sacrifices that allow one to devote the time and energy required to be successful, one often has a tendency to forget the people who made contributions. Jason, however, is unlike others: He has not forgotten those who have contributed to his career, and what’s more important is that he has graciously and willingly reciprocated by sharing the knowledge he has acquired with others. Not only clients, but also total strangers, have approached Jason, and he has spent time with them, assisting them with their trading.

Many years ago, when the DeMark indicators were first introduced onto the various data-service networks (among which was Bloomberg), the audience awareness of the indicators’ construction and application was limited. I wrote a couple of books and articles at the time that included charts showing how they could be used. Since then, I have added some features to the indicators and expanded the indicator universe. It was time for a fresh perspective and updated charts. Other than my son, TJ, who was working full time for Steve Cohen at SAC Capital, the most likely person to take on the project was Jason. When we discussed the possibility of a new book, he was receptive to the idea, and I was confident his experience and active application of the studies to various markets would provide an excellent foundation for a new book.

Over the years, Jason has been a passionate missionary for the indicators, highlighting their value to central banks, large institutional and hedge funds and to other professionals within his large, worldwide company network. His knowledge of the market models is vast, he is current with the latest indicator upgrades, and he is sensitive to the questions users of different skill levels might have regarding the indicators’ construction and application. What is most important is that he has profitably applied the indicators, and his advisory-service trading record has been exceptional. It made sense to me, and I was certain it would to readers as well: Jason was the right person at the right time to be the author of a book devoted to the indicators.

The question now was who would be the ideal publisher. There was no question in our minds that it would have to be Bloomberg. Bloomberg has programmed the indicators and has a large staff dedicated to ensuring that the indicators are updated and working properly. The application specialists are well versed in the indicators and well equipped to answer any questions clients might have. It was a perfect fit.

I am pleased to have Jason as author of a book that represents my career’s research efforts. His command of the indicators is unparalleled, as is his ability to present the subject matter succinctly and clearly. His self-effacing nature conceals his many skills. What is remarkable about Jason is that, after all the success and fame he has achieved, he is still the same person I met many years ago on that cold wintry day. Thank you, and congratulations, Jason, for a job well done. At your young age, you have accomplished much, and I am certain more major milestones will follow.

TOM DEMARK

Acknowledgments

I AM GRATEFUL to my wife, Jennifer, for her love, patience, tolerance, support, and understanding at all times and in particular while I was writing this book.

To my parents for their love, guidance, and support over the years and for instilling in me a sense of what’s right and for never giving up on me, even when they discovered I didn’t want to be a lawyer or an accountant;

To Tom DeMark, my friend and mentor, whose ongoing commitment and enthusiasm for decoding markets is infectious;

To all the people at UBS: the management of UBS FICC, our FX salespeople, the Technical and Fundamental Strategy groups, the Web editors, and the Web development teams;

To Piers Fallowfield-Cooper, for believing in me and for giving me a chance at the start of my career;

To Ian and Honor Robertson, for encouraging continuous self-improvement and for facilitating my first meeting with Tom DeMark;

To the management and staff of Bloomberg, CQG, and eSignal, for being so responsive over the years to my requirements as a demanding customer;

To Philip Algar, Taso Anastasiou, Rick Bensignor, Roderick Bentley, Peter Borish, John Burbank III, Antonio Carbone, Gerald Chan, Jim Chorek, Kevan Conlon, Leon Cooperman, Darren Coote, Herbert Coyne, Tom DeMark Jr., Steve Einhorn, Cheryl Galante, Laurie Goodman, Laeeth Isharc, Andrew Joncus, Dave Keller, Rick Knox, David Kyte, James Loh, Ger-Ghee Low, Martin Masterson, Tim McCullough, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Todd Morakis, David Munro, Herwig Prielipp, Guido Riolo, Joseph Schroeter, Guy Scott, Fabian Shey, Joe Sigelman, Ed Solari, Eugene Sorenson, Reto Stadelman, Mark Steinert, Steven Stewart, Matt Storz, Glen Sulam, Anthony Tan, Gregg Tan, Doug Tengler, David Toth, Ron William, Larry Williams, David Wood, Stan Yabroff, and to all the numerous clients of UBS for their interest in and support of my work over the years.

And finally, many thanks to my editors; Ronnie McDavid for her patience and tolerance and for not suggesting I look up the meaning of the words “and finally,” and to David George, for instilling in me that a picture is only worth a thousand words when it’s correctly annotated.