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Douglas A. Kass

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Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
Kategorie: Fachliteratur
Sprache: Englisch
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2014

Beschreibung

Build a bulletproof portfolio with advice from a top market expert Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet(TM) provides investment advice and guidance from one of the most renowned traders in the world. Author Doug Kass distills his years of experience as a hedge fund manager and infamous short seller to share the theory, technique, and intuition that built his reputation and his portfolio. Anecdotes about interactions with Wall Street's most famous names, including Buffett, Cramer, and Cooperman, highlight tricks of the trade, essential value investor insight, and the secrets to being a smart short. Doug Kass's reputation as a savvy investor is well-earned and widely recognized. His work on Wall Street gained him heavyweight status, and the friendship, the respect, and the ear of some of the biggest names in finance. As a CNBC regular and 2013 Buffet Bear, Kass is widely known as a trusted source of wisdom and profitable insight. In Doug Kass on the Market, readers learn valuable lessons that that will help them make smarter investment decisions. Kass lists the most important things to know when evaluating a possible long or short investment, and explains the things you're not doing to optimize your portfolio. Topics include: * Going against the grain * Data versus instinct * Valuation, bubbles, and momentum * Interest rates, inflation, and the Fed The book also describes how to short a stock properly without losing out and discusses the C-suite conversations that fund managers would never tell a lay shareholder. Kass's record proves the value of his acumen, and this book contains a comprehensive account of his talent and techniques. All investors deserve a chance at a more robust portfolio, and Doug Kass on the Market provides the information and guidance that can make that happen.

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Leseprobe

Cover

Additional Praise for Doug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet™

Title Page

Dedication

Foreword

Preface

Chapter 1: Where It Began

Introduction

The Contrarian

A Longtime Bear Turns Bull

What a Long, Strange Trip It's Been

Chapter 2: Short-Selling

Introduction

The Case for Short-Selling

Short-Sellers under Fire

How to Short

Lehman Can't Blame Shorts

Stop Pointing Fingers at Short-Sellers

Blame Game Is Dishonest

11 Ways to Fix the Short Ban

Leave the Short-Sellers Alone

In Defense of Short-Selling

Chapter 3: Lessons Learned

Introduction

Sniffing Out Bad Stocks

Laugh at Your Own Expense

When the Bond Market Talks, Listen

Poker Is Flush with Insight for Traders

My Tenets of Investing

12 Investment Principles for the Abyss

My Recession Checklist

Kill the Quants, Punish the ProBears

Chase Value, Not Price

Six Ways to Right Your Wrongs

Four Stages of Market Turning Points

Moving On

Adapting to Mr. Market

In Bernanke We Trust?

America's Pastime Applies to Markets

Let the Trading Day Commence

A Delicate Balance

The Lion's Share

What to Do When You're Wrong

Beware the Stock Market Trading Jones

Addressing the Fiscal Cliff

One Shining Moment

Time Frames and Exposures

Such a Long Time to Be Gone and a Short Time to Be Here

10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles

My Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator

Chapter 4: The Great Decession: Subprime and Credit/Debt Crisis

Introduction

Trouble Looms for the Homebuilders

Stretched Consumer Nears Tipping Point

When the Walls Come Tumbling Down

When the Walls Come Tumbling Down (Part Deux)

Housing Headed to the Woodshed

Housing's Softness Has Long Reach

Subpar Subprime a Growing Problem

Ratings Are Subprime's Dirty Secret

Subprime Fungus Will Spread

Subprime's Siren Call

Four to Blame for the Subprime Mess

Fed Is No Savior in Subprime Slide

The Simple Math of Subprime's Slide

Housing Red Ink Could Spell Recession

Hedge Funds' Dirty Little Debt Secret

Loaded Up on Leverage

Don't Underestimate How Bad Things Are

No Quick and Easy Fix for This Market

Brokers' Profits Riskier

Shaking Off the Credit Nightmare

Blinded by the Derivatives Boom

A Market on the Brink

Two Solutions to What Ails the Market

Ready for the Bear Stearns Challenge?

Investors Have Lost Their Innocence

Wall Street Has Sold Out America

Welcome to Dystopia

Harder than the Average Bear

Chapter 5: Recovery

Introduction

The Parable of the Mustard Seed

On the Road to Recovery

Fear and Loathing on Wall Street

Bottoms Up, Mr. Market

Bottom Call (Part Deux)

Printing an Important Market Bottom

It Ain't Heavy, It's a Bottom

The Little Market that Could

Chapter 6: Against the Grain

Introduction

Experts Agree, Recession Is Over

Market Has Likely Topped

Bearish Arguments Are Roaring

Top 20 Signs How Bad the Economy Is

More Nuance Is in Store

We Are the World

The Decade of the Temporary Worker

The Scale Tips to the Bullish Side

The Lost Decade Has Passed Us

Equities Edge toward a Top

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

Chapter 1

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Additional Praise forDoug Kass on the Market: A Life on TheStreet™

“Doug Kass was my favorite bear, long before Warren Buffett discovered him. He is a reality check on the mindless cheerleading that takes place on Wall Street.”

—Barry L. Ritholtz,Chief Investment Officer, Ritholtz Wealth ManagementColumnist, Washington Post and Bloomberg ViewHost, Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio

“Kass on the Market: A Life on the Street is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand and contextualize the investment landscape during these last turbulent years. Doug's writings are often quite prescient and always interesting.”

—Dan GreenhausChief Global Strategist, BTIG

“Everyone is a genius in a bull market but it's the ability to successfully maneuver thru all types of markets that separate the men from the boys. Doug Kass has done that in his long career and this book provides amazing insight and invaluable stories that reflect his great ability to think outside the box in a business where many feel comfortable just following the herd. As Dougie would say, run, don't walk to read this book.”

—Peter BoockvarChief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group

Doug Kass on the Market

A Life on TheStreet™

Doug Kass

Edited by Daniel Robinson

Cover Design: C. Wallace

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993, or fax (317) 572-4002.

Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Kass, Douglas A.

Doug Kass on the market: a life on TheStreet/Douglas A. Kass.

pages cm

ISBN 978-1-118-89298-5 (cloth); ISBN 9781-118-89299-2 (ebk);

ISBN 978-1-118-89301-2 (ebk)

1. Investments. 2. Finance. I. Title.

HG4521.K278 2015

332.6—dc23

2014027687

Dedication

This book is dedicatedto Chuck “Brown Bear” Zion—a wise, kind,and cherished friend who died in theWorld Trade Center tragedy in 2001.

Foreword

Sit down and strap yourself in. You are about to embark on a journey back in time that will teach you more about making money in the future than just about any source anywhere in the firmament. You are about to see what the market really looks like through the eyes of one of the greatest financial whizzes and wits of our generation, the one and only Doug Kass.

I have had the privilege of working side by cyber-side with Doug in our writing cave, TheStreet.com, for almost 20 years. In that time, I have come to respect and covet his views and his insights as I know you will as you read his real-time journal detailing the ecstasy, agony, and just plain madness of the world we call Wall Street. That's why I feel so honored to pen this foreword for a book that will stand the test of time for all sorts of markets—bull, bear, sideways, upside down, and the one we are in at the moment you read this, whatever it may be.

Doug's fond of lists, and you'll read many prescient ones in the pages ahead. They are filled with observations that only someone with as keen an eye toward making money as Doug could ever give you. Therefore, I think it is only fitting that I offer my top 10 reasons why you will love, laugh, and, of course, profit from my colleague's unique and remarkable insights.

Reason number one: Essentiality. If someone asks me what's the most essential voice I need to hear on Wall Street, I'd say one name without hesitation: Doug Kass. You need to know where he stands because so often he represents the view opposite you, the variant view, the one you most need to worry about before you place your bets on these pieces of paper we call stocks. How can you not want to know why you may be wrong? That's the essentiality of this man's unique commentary.

Reason number two: Fearlessness. So many people are cowed on Wall Street. They fear the powerful, they fear the retribution, they worry about what happens if they tell the truth. Doug Kass is the antidote to that fear. Whether it be a gentle yet still withering riposte against Warren Buffett—face to face, mind you, all detailed here—or the outright castigation of the rapacious bankers and pseudo regulators who are supposed to protect us from their machinations, Kass goes where pretty much everyone else fears to tread.

Reason number three: Self-effacement. Sure, Doug's gathered many of the best of his more than 50,000 entries since he started writing for TheStreet back in 1997, but some of my favorites here are the ones filled with humility, as the market, bull or bear, is a most humbling of animals. Doug doesn't have to be always right to learn from; sometimes it's the dissection of his own mistakes that makes for the most profitable of insights.

Reason number four: Insider's insider. If you are reading this book, chances are you have heard of a lot of big-name investors and always wanted to know what they are really like. By virtue of his successes and his knowledge, Doug knows the best and brightest personally and extols them in ways that give you the context that's invariably absent when we hear their utterances. Doug, as they say, is “in the room”—a room that you may never get to be in but will certainly come to feel comfortable with because of his candid observations about those with whom he surrounds himself.

Reason number five: He's not afraid to stick his neck out. At the beginning of each year, Doug lays out some predictions that may seem outlandish—that is, until they come true. It's uncanny that so many pan out, and the pan can be filled with gold. Oh, and no one is more brutal about the prognostications that didn't work out than Doug himself. No free passes for anyone, including himself.

Reason number six: You never know where he's going to come out. Some think Doug's a perma-bear. I say wait until you get to the entry entitled “Bottoms Up, Mr. Market,” where Doug began an astounding series of articles that nailed the exact bottom of the worst stock market decline in our lifetime. Oh, and because each piece here is dated in real time, including those fabled March 2009 time-to-buy postings, there's no denying Kass his due. When a man who has been correctly bearish for thousands of points on the Dow suddenly and convincingly goes bullish, you want that judgment. Doug's generational bottom call will always stand the test of time. Thank heavens I listened to him in those darkest-before-dawn days and my viewers and readers rode his coattails to tremendous profits.

Reason number seven: Expertise. Doug's an old housing analyst by nature, and that expertise helped nail the subprime issue, the proximate cause of the great recession, well ahead of when the downturn snowballed. His subprime articles written on the cusp of the Great Recession are warily prescient; if only the Fed had subscribed! His expertise goes well beyond housing, of course, but Doug's musings about all of the accoutrements of the industry—consumer sentiment, retail, interest rates, the Fed's role—make for some indispensable reading.

Reason number eight: Education into short-selling. Most people, including many hedge fund managers, think they know how to profit from the downside. They actually don't have a clue. I don't think anyone knows the tactic and strategies of successful short-selling better than Doug. It's a wonder, and a life-saver, or at least a portfolio saver, that he's willing to give them to you. And he does so in a clear, no-nonsense way.

Reason number nine: Impact. When Doug takes a variant view on a stock, particularly a loved stock, look out: there are going to be fireworks. Doug's insights, as you will see here, quickly turn into actionable ideas that can make for a very profitable trade or investment. Put simply, Doug can and does move markets. You need to know which way he is moving them.

Finally, and perhaps most important for these columns' longevity, Doug's a brilliant wordsmith. His writing is suffused with irony, mirth, outrageous story-telling, including the always hilarious insights from Grandma Koufax—yep, that Koufax—and genuine warmth. Even if you aren't a stock junkie like I am, you'll most certainly get a kick out of the trenchant way he makes his points. He tells a terrific yarn.

For all of these reasons and many more, you will come to share the joy I have of cracking open the browser each morning to my favorite columnist to learn what I didn't think would happen before it actually occurs.

James J. Cramer, markets columnist, TheStreet.com,co-anchor of CNBC's Squawk on the Street,and host of CNBC's Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Preface

For over 15 years I have been a contributor to TheStreet and its subscriber-based products (currently Real Money Pro).

TheStreet, Inc. was founded as TheStreet.com by Jim Cramer and Martin Peretz in 1996 and went public in 1999. Since then, TheStreet has become one of the most popular and informative fountains of investment information of its kind.

I have always enjoyed writing, and Jim and his team have provided me with a platform in which I combine humor, pop culture metaphors, and even clever quips from my Grandma Koufax in an attempt to differentiate my words from the dry Wall Street research that permeates the investment narrative.

If I have been successful, it is probably because I write for myself. I ask myself in every column—and I typically write at least 15 columns a day—if I have learned something new and if the process of reading my diary has been an engaging and enjoyable experience.

This is easier said than done. After all, since 1998, I have likely written over 30 million words contained in more than 50,000 columns.

Ask yourself whether you discuss 15 new subjects in your own life with your friends and family each and every day.

With so much to express in my daily columns, I start my day early at around 5:00 A.M., and I end the day, subject to after-hours news, after 6:00 P.M.

That's a long day. But it has been rewarding, and I like to think that I still have something to say or observe.

My writings and investment/research process have been influenced by numerous legends as well as many regular folks and friends.

My journey was made possible by the tens of thousands of subscribers to TheStreet, Real Money, and Real Money Pro. We have shared experiences, corresponded frequently, and some of us have grown to be true friends.

The cornerstone and epicenter of my journalistic travels on TheStreet starts with Jim Cramer. Jim has been my collaborator, my defender and advocate, and he has provided me with the guidance of a shining star in the night. He has been generous with his time and kind in his criticism. All this has made the journey smooth, and the 15-plus years have flown by. Stephanie Link, also at TheStreet, has been helpful and has also been an important adviser to me over the past several years. Finally, TheStreet CEO Elisabeth DeMarse is a wonderful leader who has steadily guided the company through an ever-changing and increasingly difficult-to-navigate media terrain.

Perhaps my most significant personal influence is my Grandma Koufax. She was a successful businesswoman, investor, and feminist, who taught me about the stock market when I was in my mid-teens.

Other influential iconic figures for whom I have worked include Jerry “The Chief” Jordan, the best trader I have ever met; Larry Lasser, who taught me how to deliver a sound analytical argument; and Martin Hale at Putnam Management, who gave me a historical perspective. Omega Advisors' Lee Cooperman, the hardest-working hedge-hogger extant, and Steve Einhorn showed me the positive consequences of going belly to belly with a company's management and enlightened me about the advantages of looking more frequently on the optimistic side.

Our late national journalistic treasure Alan Abelson, of Barron's, as well as my first boss, Ralph Nader, taught me the benefits of being a skeptic, thinking outside of the box, and the value of investigative research, which is essential in developing differentiated and hard-hitting analysis.

Warren Buffett's invitation to grill him at his 2013 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting provided me with a unique opportunity and contributed to one of the most enjoyable weekends of my life (which I shared with my son, Noah). By now, my copies of his letters to shareholders are all dog-eared. The Oracle of Omaha is simply the best professor any investor can be schooled by.

Others from whom I have learned include Yale's Bob Shiller, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, “Uncle” Bob Farrell (the greatest technical analyst of all time), Leon Levy, Grant's Interest Rate Observer's Jim Grant, Bloomberg's Tom Keene, BTIG's Dan Greenhaus, The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar, TheStreet's Herb Greenberg, Richard Bernstein (who has helped me navigate the noise), Raymond James's Jeff Saut, the indomitable Dennis Gartman, the lynx-eyed Barry “Tell It Like It Is” Ritholtz, the research-intensive Jeff Berkowitz (Jim Cramer's former hedge fund partner), Bob “Scarsdale Fats” Brimberg, and Howard Marks (who teaches us all that there is more than one important thing to investing).

A special thanks to all of my friends at CNBC: Mark Haines (R.I.P.), Sir Larry Kudlow (my favorite host), the New York Times's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, “Judge” Scott Wapner, David Faber, and many others who have provided me with a forum for my investment ideas and views since 2003.

I owe a lot of gratitude to my Seabreeze associates Chris “The Fisherman” Brandon and Scott Budner, who put up with my idiosyncrasies and long hours.

Finally, I want to give a special shout out to my best pal, Barry Wish. Barry is a thoughtful and compassionate friend who has been my rabbi, especially over the past 15 years. His wise counsel has been a beacon of light.

I could not have produced the stream of columns without the steady hand of Daniel Robinson. Danny has been my editor for much of the past decade and has done the heavy lifting to bring this book to fruition. Despite his adoration of the Boston Red Sox, his friendship and creative pen have been invaluable.

What a long strange trip it has been and will, hopefully, continue to be for many years ahead!

Where It Began

Introduction

Back in early 1997 I received a call from Dave Kansas, the managing editor of TheStreet.com. I had known Dave from his early days at the Wall Street Journal, where he had frequently interviewed me. At the time, TheStreet.com was in its formative stage, and Dave asked me to write a column. I admired Dave professionally, and I agreed to author an irregular column called “The Contrarian.”

Writing has always come easy for me, and I started my gig on TheStreet.com as a lark. I never thought that 17 years and tens of millions of words later I would still be writing.

This chapter starts with my first column written on TheStreet.com and later on depicts my journey on TheStreet and in life!

The Contrarian

May 1997

Today's stock market is bifurcated—it is a market of haves and have-nots. Increasingly, price action is influenced by the dominant investor of the 1990s, the mutual fund manager. With stocks in so relatively few hands, equities often move based on the strategies employed by these funds. This makes for the kind of inefficiencies and opportunities that we are seeking in this column. As Warren Buffett once put it, “Our job is to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

I have learned over the years that in the equity market, there are few truisms. Today's established doctrine often becomes tomorrow's false beliefs, as conventional wisdom does not always represent common sense.

It is important to recognize that a contrarian approach can be just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What is required is thinking rather than polling. Bertrand Russell's following observation about life in general applies with unusual force to the financial world: “Most men would rather die than think. Many do.”

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!