Hot Commodities E-Book

Rogers Jim

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2014

Seitenzahl: 416

Beschreibung

The next bull market is here. It's not in stocks. It's not in bonds. It's in commodities - and some smart investors will be riding that bull to record returns in the next decade. Before Jim Rogers hit the road to write his best-selling books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he was one of the world's most successful investors. He co-founded the Quantum Fund and made so much money that he never needed to work again. Yet despite his success, Rogers has never written a book of practical investment advice - until now. In Hot Commodities, Rogers offers the low-down on the most lucrative markets for today and tomorrow. In late 1998, gliding under the radar, a bull market in commodities began. Rogers thinks it's going to continue for at least fifteen years - and he's put his money where his mouth is: In 1998, he started his own commodities index fund. It's up 165% since then, with more than $200 million invested, and it's the single-best performing index fund in the world in any asset class. Less risky than stocks and less sluggish than bonds, commodities are where the money is - and will be in the years ahead. Rogers's strategies are simple and straightforward. You can start small - a few thousand dollars will suffice. It's all about putting your money into stuff you understand, the basic materials of everyday life, like copper, sugar, cotton, corn, or crude oil. Once you recognize the cyclical and historical trading patterns outlined here, you'll be on your way. In language that is both colourful and accessible, Rogers explains why the world of commodity investing can be one of the simplest of all - and how commodities are the bases by which investors can value companies, markets, and whole economies. To be a truly great investor is to know something about commodities. For small investors and high rollers alike, Hot Commodities is as good as gold . . . or lead, or aluminium, which are some of the commodities Rogers says could be as rewarding for investors.

Leseprobe

Contents

Cover

Title page

Copyright page

About the Book

Dedication

Introduction

1: The Next New Thing is—Things

Open Your Mind—To Commodities

Why Commodities—Now?

Running on Empty (Again)

When Stocks Go Down—Commodities Go Up

The Nation’s Economic Health is not a Deciding Factor

Warning! There Will be Setbacks

Warning No. 2! China has Caused Some of the Gain—and will Cause Some Pain

What is the Difference Between a Consolidation and the End of a Bull Market?

2: “But …”

About that Relative of Yours who Got Wiped Out—

“But What About Technology?”

“But Isn’t it only Speculation and the Lower Dollar that are Inflating Prices?”

“But My Stock Broker Tells Me that Investing in Commodities is Risky.”

“But With Prices Already up for Several Years, Haven’t i Missed Out?”

3: Stepping Up to Commodities

Will the Price Go Higher?

Supply

Demand

The Alternatives

4: Stepping into the Cmmodities Markets

The Basics of Futures

Laying off Risk

Profiting from Risk

Going Long—or Short

Stop!

The Business of Commodities Trading

Decoding the Commodities News

The Numbers

Ready to Contango?

The Next Step

5: Notes from the Wild, Wild East

The Rise of “Red Capitalism“

A Growing Economy with 1.3 Billion People Needs Things

The Next World Currency?

China vs. India

The Downside

Imperial Ambitions?

The Upside of the Downside

6: Goodbye, Cheap Oil

Today’s “Oil Crisis“

Supply

The Saudi Debate

What About that Other “Friend” of Ours—the Russians?

Some Other Question Marks

The Alternatives to Oil?

Oil Prices and the World Economy

7: Gold—Mystique vs. Fundamentals

U.S. Gold

Supply

Demand

Prices

8: A Heavy Metal with the Potential to be a High Flier

Supply

Demand

Prices

CODA: The Irony of Lead—and a Lesson in Commodities

9: Searching for the Next Sugar High

The Changing Global Sugar Market

Sugar’s Past Ups and Downs—and Whys

Supply

Demand

10: Can Coffee Perk Up?

From MOCHA to JAVA to the All-American Beverage

Supply

Demand

What About China?

The Outlook for Coffee

Conclusion

Appendix

Index

About the Author

End User License Agreement

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Introduction

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HOT COMMODITIES

HOW ANYONE CAN INVEST PROFITABLY IN THE WORLD’S BEST MARKET

JIM ROGERS

This book is a guide to managing your money and achieving your financial goals. It is not a guarantee; all investment decisions have inherent risks.

This paperback edition published in the UK in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England Telephone [phone]

Email (for orders and customer service enquiries): [email protected] Visit our Home Page on www.wiley.com

First Published in the United States by Random House

Copyright © 2004 by Beeland Interests, Inc

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. Requests to the Publisher should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, or emailed to [email protected], or faxed to ([phone].

Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The Publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold on the understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

Jim Rogers has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, to be identified as the author of this work.

Other Wiley Editorial Offices

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Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-0-470-51076-6 (PB)

ABOUT THE BOOK

The next bull market is here. It’s not in stocks. It’s not in bonds. It’s in commodities – and some smart investors will be riding that bull to record returns in the next decade.

Before Jim Rogers hit the road to write his best-selling books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he was one of the world’s most successful investors. He co-founded the Quantum Fund and made so much money that he never needed to work again. Yet despite his success, Rogers has never written a book of practical investment advice – until now.

In Hot Commodities, Rogers offers the low-down on the most lucrative markets for today and tomorrow. In late 1998, gliding under the radar, a bull market in commodities began. Rogers thinks it’s going to continue for at least fifteen years – and he’s put his money where his mouth is: In 1998, he started his own commodities index fund. It’s up 165% since then, with more than $200 million invested, and it’s the single-best performing index fund in the world in any asset class. Less risky than stocks and less sluggish than bonds, commodities are where the money is – and will be in the years ahead.

Rogers’s strategies are simple and straightforward. You can start small – a few thousand dollars will suffice. It’s all about putting your money into stuff you understand, the basic materials of everyday life, like copper, sugar, cotton, corn, or crude oil. Once you recognize the cyclical and historical trading patterns outlined here, you’ll be on your way.

In language that is both colorful and accessible, Rogers explains why the world of commodity investing can be one of the simplest of all – and how commodities are the bases by which investors can value companies, markets, and whole economies. To be a truly great investor is to know something about commodities.

For small investors and high rollers alike, Hot Commodities is as good as gold… or lead, or aluminum, which are some of the commodities Rogers says could be as rewarding for investors.

ALSO BY JIM ROGERS

Investment Biker

Adventure Capitalist

For my Baby Girl,

who owns commodities but does not yet

own stocks or bonds

INTRODUCTION

COMMODITIES get no respect.

Too many so-called smart investors consider themselves diversified if they have money in stocks, bonds, real estate, and maybe, for the sophisticates, some currencies, or timber. But commodities rarely, if ever, hit the radar screen.

It doesn’t make sense to ignore a whole asset class—particularly one that has done quite well over time, contrary to all the myths about how risky, volatile, complex, and downright dangerous putting money in commodities is supposed to be. Successful investors look for opportunities to buy value cheap and hold it long-term, regardless of the market. So what if commodities are new to you. All it takes is a little homework, and there is no better motivator to be a fast study than the prospect of making some money. Let me tell you a story about one investor who started out knowing zero about commodities (and every other kind of investment) and ended up doing just fine.

In 1964, on a whim, I took a summer job in a firm on Wall Street. All I knew about Wall Street was that it was located somewhere in New York City and that something bad had happened there in 1929. Frankly, I didn’t even know that there was a difference between a stock and a bond. But it was clear that there was money to be made on Wall Street, and being a poor kid from Demopolis, Alabama, who had already been lucky enough to go to Yale, I was eager to make some money to buy my freedom.

And while my ignorance about the financial world was profound, I had always been interested in current affairs and history, and it was a revelation to learn that someone on Wall Street would actually pay me for figuring out that a revolution in Chile would drive up the price of copper. My luck continued with a scholarship to Oxford, where I studied politics, philosophy, and economics; I also began using what I had learned in my summer job to invest my scholarship dollars before it was time to pay the bursar at Balliol College. After Oxford, I did a stint in the U.S. Army, where I distinguished myself mainly by investing the post commander’s money in the stock market for a tidy return. Having served my country, I returned to New York in 1968 to begin my career in high finance. I had $600 in my pocket.