Introduction to Reliability Engineering E-Book

James E. Breneman

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 929

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022

Beschreibung

Introduction to Reliability Engineering

A complete revision of the classic text on reliability engineering, written by an expanded author team with increased industry perspective

Introduction to Reliability Engineering provides a thorough and well-balanced overview of the fundamental aspects of reliability engineering and describes the role of probability and statistical analysis in predicting and evaluating reliability in a range of engineering applications. Covering both foundational theory and real-world practice, this classic textbook helps students of any engineering discipline understand key probability concepts, random variables and their use in reliability, Weibull analysis, system safety analysis, reliability and environmental stress testing, redundancy, failure interactions, and more.

Extensively revised to meet the needs of today’s students, the Third Edition fully reflects current industrial practices and provides a wealth of new examples and problems that now require the use of statistical software for both simulation and analysis of data. A brand-new chapter examines Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Reliability Testing chapter has been greatly expanded, while new and expanded sections cover topics such as applied probability, probability plotting with software, the Monte Carlo simulation, and reliability and safety risk. Throughout the text, increased emphasis is placed on the Weibull distribution and its use in reliability engineering. Presenting students with an interdisciplinary perspective on reliability engineering, this textbook:

• Presents a clear and accessible introduction to reliability engineering that assumes no prior background knowledge of statistics and probability
• Teaches students how to solve problems involving reliability data analysis using software including Minitab and Excel
• Features new and updated examples, exercises, and problems sets drawn from a variety of engineering fields
• Includes several useful appendices, worked examples, answers to selected exercises, and a companion website

Introduction to Reliability Engineering, Third Edition remains the perfect textbook for both advanced undergraduate and graduate students in all areas of engineering and manufacturing technology.

Leseprobe

Introduction to Reliability Engineering

Third Edition

James E. Breneman

Manager, Engineering Technical University, Retired, Pratt & Whitney Corporation Division of Raytheon Technologies

Chittaranjan Sahay

Professor of Mechanical Engineering

University of Hartford

Elmer E. Lewis

Professor Emeritus

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Northwestern University

This edition first published 2022© 2022 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Edition History1st edition (9780471811992) 1987, by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.2nd edition (9780471018339) 1996, by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

The right of James E. Brennan, Chittaranjan Sahay, and Elmer E. Lewis to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Breneman, James E., author. | Sahay, Chittaranjan, author | Lewis, E. E. (Elmer Eugene), 1938– author.Title: Introduction to reliability engineering / J.E. Breneman, Director of Advanced Engineering Processes Manager, Engineering Technical University, Retired, Pratt & Whitney Corporation, Chittaranjan Sahay, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, University of Hartford, Hartford, Connecticut, Elmer E. Lewis, Professor Emeritus, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois.Description: Third edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2022. | Includes bibliographical references and index.Identifiers: LCCN 2021038736 (print) | LCCN 2021038737 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119640561 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119640622 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119640653 (epub)Subjects: LCSH: Reliability (Engineering)Classification: LCC TA169 .L47 2022 (print) | LCC TA169 (ebook) | DDC 620/.00452–dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021038736LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021038737

Cover image: © Wikimedia CommonsCover design by Wiley

To Our Wives and Families

Preface

The objective of this text is to provide an elementary and reasonably self‐contained overview of reliability engineering that is suitable for an upper‐level undergraduate or first‐year graduate course for students of any engineering discipline. In addition, the third edition has added material for the “beginning” reliability engineer who is in the field and transferred to the reliability/safety discipline. The materials reflect the inherently interdisciplinary character of reliability considerations and the central role played by probability and statistical analysis in presenting reliability principles and practices.

The examples and exercises are drawn from a variety of engineering and some nonengineering fields. They can be understood, however, with only the knowledge from the physics, chemistry, and basic engineering courses contained in the first years of nearly all engineering curricula. Likewise, the reader is presumed to have completed only the standard mathematics sequence, through ordinary differential equations, required of most engineering students. No prior knowledge of probability or statistics is assumed; the development of the required concepts is contained within the text.

Since the second edition, at least two major changes have taken place that are incorporated into this new edition. The first is the increased industrial emphasis on quality in the product development cycle and the vital role that reliability plays in providing an overall reliable and safe product. The second is the rapid advances that have taken place in not only personal computer software but the extent to which that software has penetrated the engineering profession in all arenas, thus lending more time for thinking about the data and then thinking about the results of the analysis rather than spending so much time “computing” the solutions. The reader will find many instances in this edition where computer software is used not only to produce solutions to specific problems but also to the generation of tables of values (normal probability, t tables, chi‐square tables, etc.).

For each appropriate example in this edition, the necessary steps for obtaining a solution are indicated using readily available software. EXCEL™ is augmented in many cases with MINITAB®. These two programs were chosen because they are widely available, and instructions for their use are also widely available. There are other statistical software packages other than MINITAB that can do most of the analyses (SAS™, SAS/JMP™, RELIASOFT++™, SUPERSMITH™, and others) that are referenced in the third edition. The problems and solutions are amenable to all these software packages as well as others.

A number of additional improvements have been incorporated into the new edition. Reliability Basics and the Exponential Distribution are introduced in Chapter 3; Chapter 4, Continuous Distributions, Part 1, introduces the normal and lognormal distributions. The Weibull and extreme value distributions are treated in Chapter 5, Continuous Distributions, Part 2. Chapter 6 is dedicated to the topic of reliability testing. It is expanded from the second edition to include many options for setting up reliability testing along with the analysis of the data, thus emphasizing the importance of the Weibull distribution in the practice of reliability engineering. Chapter 7 is dedicated to FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), an indispensable tool in reliability in all areas, not just design but virtually EVERY process in any industry including the medical and most “soft” industries in terms of process FMEA. Chapter 8 on Loads, Capacity, and Reliability; Chapter 9 on Maintained Systems; and Chapter 10 on Failure Interactions are basically unchanged from the second edition. Two sections have been added to the System Safety Analysis (now Chapter 11) on FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis) and Safety Risk Analysis and the Use of Monte Carlo Simulation.

Finally, the text now contains over 150 solved examples and well over 300 exercises, many of which are new. The answers to the odd‐numbered exercises are given at the end of the book.

The text contains more material than can be treated in detail in a normal one‐semester undergraduate course, providing some latitude in the topics that may be emphasized. If the students have had some previous exposure to elementary probability, Chapter 2 can be somewhat telescoped because those probability concepts that are more specific to reliability analysis are set forth in Chapter 3. The statistical treatment of data contained mainly in Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7 is essential to a well‐rounded undergraduate course in reliability engineering. The materials in the remaining chapters may be covered independently in an advanced undergraduate or graduate course. For example, the quantitative analysis of the effects of load and capacities contained in Chapter 8 is critical to the understanding of failure mechanisms, but the reliability systems considerations concentrated in Chapters 9 and 11 may be read independently of it. Finally, the system safety analysis contained in Chapter 11 may be understood without first covering the Markov analysis methods developed in Chapter 10.

In addition to the continued thanks owed to the students and colleagues who provided their advice and assistance with previous editions, we would like to acknowledge the help of specific individuals in encouraging the authors to include the reliability engineering professionals in this book’s prospective audience:

My sincere thanks to:

As well as the students at Northwestern University who have ferreted out errors in the first edition and made constructive criticisms and suggestions for improvements. George Coons of the Motorola Corporation has been particularly helpful in providing materials and suggestions related to the treatment of quality issues, and Jim Lookabaugh of Northwestern designed the data acquisition system and obtained the light bulb reliability results that serve as the basis for several examples in Chapters 5 and 8. Finally, I would like to express my appreciation for the continued understanding of my wife and children while I monopolized the family computer.

Elmer Lewis

My sincere thanks to:

all my colleagues at Pratt & Whitney, especially Dr. Bob Abernethy, Wes Annas, Dave McDermott, Steve Luko, and in particular, my P&W Engineering mentor Jack Sammons, without whose encouragement I would not have explored the needs at P&W in Weibull Risk & Reliability Analysis.

Many former UTC divisions (Carrier, Otis, and Sikorsky) and many other companies I have consulted for as well as university students who had the fortitude to listen to my advice and take the many Reliability, Statistics, and Safety courses I have taught – thanks for helping me become a better listener and teacher.

My SAE, ASA, and ASQ professional associates have provided me with their ideas and support: in particular, Wes Fulton, Paul Barringer, Jim McLinn, and Trevor Craney.

Jim Breneman

Prof. Alan Hadad and Dr. Louis Manzione for their support in always helping me pursue my goals. My portion of the materials in the book are influenced by discussions with my students over the years at the University of Hartford and the State University of New York at Binghamton. I received encouragement from my teacher, Prof. Rajendra Dubey of the University of Waterloo. I am grateful to my industry collaborators who have transformed my approach to engineering education. In particular, Jim Breneman, coauthor of the book, was an inspiration while serving as the point of contact for University relations at Pratt and Whitney. I owe the most of thanks to my wife, Saraswati Sahay, and my children, who stood by me and helped me stay focused.

Chittaranjan Sahay

Jim Breneman, Vergennes, VT, USA

Chittaranjan Sahay, West Hartford, CT, USA

Elmer Lewis, Evanston, IL, USA

December 2021

About the Author

James E. Breneman, received a B.S. in mathematics from University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and an M.S. in mathematics and statistics from N.C. State, Raleigh, North Carolina. He served in the US Army during the Vietnam war and is a former director of Advanced Engineering Processes and the founder and manager of Pratt & Whitney’s Engineering Technical University. He has worked over 45 years in the reliability and statistical arena and 35 years at Pratt & Whitney (Division of Raytheon Technologies) in reliability and safety risk analysis. He is a Pratt & Whitney Fellow as well as SAE Fellow in reliability, a recipient of the ASQ Grant medal, and other professional awards. He is a coauthor of the USAF Weibull Analysis Handbook and numerous (published and unpublished) papers and handbooks in reliability and safety. He is a consultant to various aerospace and nonaerospace industries in the areas of reliability, statistics, and risk.

Chittaranjan Sahay, Received a B.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from Regional (now, National) Institute of Technology, Jamshedpur in India, and a Ph.D. from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, India. He was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Waterloo and University of Ottawa in Canada before moving to the State University of New York at Binghamton. He has served as Visiting Faculty at Cornell University, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra Ranchi as B.M. Birla Professor of Mechanical Engineering, and at Indian Institute of Technology, Patna. He is a Fellow of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers. He is the Vernon D. Roosa Distinguished Professor of Manufacturing Engineering, a professor of Mechanical Engineering, and the Director for Center of manufacturing and Metrology at the University of Hartford.

Elmer E. Lewis is professor emeritus and former chairman of the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern University. He received his B.S. in engineering physics and an M.S. and Ph.D. in nuclear engineering at the University of Illinois, Urbana. He served as a captain in the US Army and as a Ford Foundation fellow and an assistant professor at MIT before joining Northwestern’s faculty. He has also held appointments as visiting professor at the University of Stuttgart and guest scientist at the Nuclear Research Center at Karlsruhe, Germany, and has served as a consultant to Argonne, Los Alamos, and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and to a number of industrial firms. A fellow of the American Nuclear Society and winner of its Eugene P. Wigner Reactor Physics and Arthur Holly Compton Awards, his research has been focused on reliability modeling, radiation transport, and the physics and safety of nuclear systems. He is the author or coauthor of over 200 publications including the Wiley books, Nuclear Power Reactor Safety, Computational Methods of Neutron Transport, and the first two editions of Introduction to Reliability Engineering.

About the Companion Website

This book is accompanied by a companion website:

www.wiley.com/go/breneman/relabilityengineering3e

The instructor site will include:

Answers to end-of-chapter exercises

PowerPoints

Project ideas

The student site will include:

Excel files of the exercises

1Introduction

“When an engineer, following the safety regulations of the Coast Guard or the Federal Aviation Agency, translates the laws of physics into the specifications of a steamboat boiler or the design of a jet airliner, he is mixing science with a great many other considerations all relating to the purposes to be served. And it is always purposes in the plural — a series of compromises of various considerations, such as speed, safety economy and so on.”

Source: D. K Price, The Scientific Estate, 1968

1.1 Reliability Defined

The world demands that the performance of products and systems be improved while at the same time reducing their cost. The requirement to minimize the probability of failures, whether those failures simply increase costs and irritation or gravely threaten the public safety, has placed increased emphasis on reliability and safety. The formal body of knowledge that has been developed for analyzing such failures and minimizing their occurrence cuts across virtually all engineering disciplines, providing the rich variety of contexts in which reliability considerations appear. Indeed, deeper insight into failures and their prevention is to be gained by comparing and contrasting the reliability characteristics of systems of differing characteristics: computers, electromechanical machinery, energy conversion systems, chemical and materials processing plants, and structures, to name a few.

In the broadest sense, reliability is associated with dependability, with successful operation, and with the absence of breakdowns or failures. It is necessary for engineering analysis, however, to define reliability quantitatively as a probability.

Thus, reliability is defined as the probability that a system will perform its intended function for a specified period of time under a given set of conditions. System is used here in a generic sense so that the definition of reliability is also applicable to all varieties of products, subsystems, equipment, components, and parts.

A product or system is said to fail when it ceases to perform its intended function. When there is a total cessation of function – an engine stops running, a structure collapses, a piece of communication equipment goes dead – the system has clearly failed. Often, however, it is necessary to define failure quantitatively in order to take into account the more subtle forms of failure, through deterioration or instability of function. Thus, a motor that is no longer capable of delivering a specified torque, a structure that exceeds a specified deflection, a part that is seriously corroded or eroded (yet still working), or an amplifier that falls below a stipulated gain has failed. Intermittent operation or excessive drift in electronic equipment and the machine tool production of out‐of‐tolerance parts may also be defined as failures.

The way in which time is specified in the definition of reliability may also vary considerably, depending on the nature of the system under consideration. For example, in an intermittently operated system one must specify whether calendar time or the number of hours of operation is to be used. If the operation is cyclic, such as that of a switch, time is likely to be cast in terms of the number of operations. Some subsystems of the same system (e.g. jet engine) may have different time criteria that drives their failure. If reliability is to be specified in terms of calendar time, it may also be necessary to specify the frequency of starts and stops and the ratio of operating to total time.

In addition to reliability itself, other quantities are used to characterize the reliability of a system. The mean time to failure and failure rate are examples, and in the case of repairable systems, so also are the availability and mean time to repair. The definition of these and other terms will be introduced as needed.

1.2 Performance, Cost, and Reliability

Much of engineering endeavor is concerned with designing and building products for improved performance. We strive for lighter and therefore faster aircraft, for thermodynamically more efficient energy conversion devices, for faster computers, and for larger, longer lasting structures. The pursuit of such objectives, however, often requires designs incorporating features that more often than not may tend to be less reliable than older, lower performance systems, at least initially when the customer receives them. The trade‐offs between performance, reliability, and cost are often subtle, involving loading, system complexity, and the employment of new materials and concepts.

Load is most often used in the mechanical sense of the stress on a structure. But here we interpret it more generally so that it also may be the thermal load caused by high temperature, the electrical load on a generator, or even the information load on a telecommunications system. Whatever the nature of the load on a system or its components may be, performance is frequently improved through increased loading. Thus, by increasing the weight of an aircraft, we increase the stress levels in its structure; by going to higher – thermodynamically more efficient – temperatures we are forced to operate materials under conditions in which there are heat‐induced losses of strength and more rapid corrosion/erosion. By allowing for ever‐increasing flows of information in communications systems, we approach the frequency limits at which switching or other digital circuits may operate.

As the physical limits of systems or their components are approached in order to improve performance, the number of failures increase unless appropriate countermeasures are taken. Thus, specifications for a purer material, tighter dimensional tolerance, and a host of other measures are required to reduce uncertainty in the performance limits and thereby permit one to operate close to those limits without incurring an unacceptable probability of exceeding them (i.e. failure). But in the process of doing so, the cost of the system is likely to increase. Even then, adverse environmental conditions, product deterioration, and manufacturing flaws all lead to higher failure probabilities in systems operating near their limit loads.

System performance may often be increased at the expense of increased complexity, the complexity usually being measured by the number of required components or parts. Once again, reliability will be decreased unless compensating measures are taken, for it may be shown that if nothing else is changed, reliability decreases with each added component. In these situations, reliability can only be maintained if component reliability is increased or if component redundancy is built into the system. But each of these remedies, in turn, must be measured against the incurred costs.

Probably the greatest improvements in performance have come through the introduction of entirely new technologies. For, in contrast to the trade‐offs faced with increased loading or complexity, more fundamental advances may have the potential for both improved performance and greater reliability. Certainly, the history of technology is a study of such advances; the replacement of wood by metals in machinery and structures, the replacement of piston with jet aircraft engines, and the replacement of vacuum tubes with solid‐state electronics all led to fundamental advances in both performance and reliability while costs were reduced. Any product in which these trade‐offs are overcome with increased performance and reliability, without a commensurate cost increase, constitutes a significant technological advance.

With any major advance, however, reliability may be diminished, particularly in the early stages of the introduction of new technology. The engineering community must proceed through a learning experience to reduce the uncertainties in the limits in loading on the new product, to understand its susceptibilities to adverse environments, to predict deterioration with age, and to perfect the procedures for fabrication, manufacture, and construction. Thus, in the transition from wood to iron, the problem of dry rot was eliminated, but failure modes associated with brittle fracture had to be understood. In replacing vacuum tubes with solid‐state electronics the ramifications of reliability loss with increasing ambient temperature and vibration had to be appreciated.

Whether in the implementation of new concepts or in the application of existing technologies, the way trade‐offs are made between reliability, performance and cost, and the criteria on which they are based is deeply imbedded in the essence of engineering practice, for the considerations and criteria are as varied as the uses to which technology is put. The following examples illustrate this point.