Investing in Mortgage-Backed and Asset-Backed Securities - Glenn M. Schultz - E-Book

Investing in Mortgage-Backed and Asset-Backed Securities E-Book

Glenn M. Schultz

4,8
73,99 €

oder
-100%
Sammeln Sie Punkte in unserem Gutscheinprogramm und kaufen Sie E-Books und Hörbücher mit bis zu 100% Rabatt.
Mehr erfahren.
Beschreibung

A complete guide to investing in and managing a portfolio of mortgage- and asset-backed securities Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are not as complex as they might seem. In fact, all of the information, financial models, and software needed to successfully invest in and manage a portfolio of these securities are available to the investment professional through open source software. Investing in Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities + Website shows you how to achieve this goal. The book draws entirely on publicly available data and open source software to construct a complete analytic framework for investing in these securities. The analytic models used throughout the book either exist in the quantlib library, as an R package, or are programmed in R and incorporated into the analytic framework used. * Examines the valuation of fixed-income securities--metrics, valuation framework, and return analysis * Covers residential mortgage-backed securities--security cash flow, mortgage dollar roll, adjustable rate mortgages, and private label MBS * Discusses prepayment modeling and the valuation of mortgage credit * Presents mortgage-backed securities valuation techniques--pass-through valuation and interest rate models Engaging and informative, this book skillfully shows you how to build, rather than buy, models and proprietary analytical platforms that will allow you to invest in mortgage- and asset-backed securities.

Sie lesen das E-Book in den Legimi-Apps auf:

Android
iOS
von Legimi
zertifizierten E-Readern

Seitenzahl: 469

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2016

Bewertungen
4,8 (16 Bewertungen)
13
3
0
0
0
Mehr Informationen
Mehr Informationen
Legimi prüft nicht, ob Rezensionen von Nutzern stammen, die den betreffenden Titel tatsächlich gekauft oder gelesen/gehört haben. Wir entfernen aber gefälschte Rezensionen.



Table of Contents

Series Page

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Part One: Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities

Chapter 1: The Time Value of Money

1.1 Present Value

1.2 Future Value

1.3 Present Value of an Annuity

1.4 Future Value of an Annuity

1.5 Solving Financial Questions with Present and Future Value

1.6 Application to Fixed-Income Securities

Chapter 2: Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

2.1 The Rational or Pure Expectations Hypothesis

2.2 The Market Segmentation Theory

2.3 The Liquidity Preference Theory

2.4 Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates

2.5 Application of Spot and Forward Rates

Chapter 3: Fixed-Income Metrics

3.1 Maturity

3.2 Yield to Maturity

3.3 Weighted Average Life

3.4 Duration

3.5 Convexity

3.6 Fisher-Weil Duration and Convexity

3.7 Effective Duration

3.8 Effective Convexity

3.9 Summing the Aforementioned Measures of Duration and Convexity

3.10 Key Rate Duration

Chapter 4: The Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities

4.1 A Valuation Framework for Fixed-Income Securities

4.2 Application of the Framework to Structured Securities

4.3 Twist and Shift: Characterizing Changes in the Level, Steepness, and Curvature of the Term Structure

4.4 Case Study: 4.00% 30-Year MBS

4.5 Scenario Comparative Analysis

Chapter 5: Fixed-Income Return Analysis

5.1 Return Strategies

5.2 The Components of Return

5.3 The Buy-and-Hold Strategy

5.4 Total and Absolute Returns

5.5 Deconstructing the Fixed-Income Return Profile

5.6 Estimating Bond Returns with Price and Risk Measures

Part Two: Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities

Chapter 6: Understanding Mortgage Lending and Loans

6.1 Classification of Real Estate

6.2 Residential Mortgage Loan Amortization

6.3 Deconstructing the Amortization Table

6.4 Mortgage Servicing

Chapter 7: Modeling Cash Flows

7.1 Prepayment Conventions

7.2 Modeling MBS Cash Flows

Chapter 8: Mortgage Prepayment Analysis

8.1 Big Data—What Is It?

8.2 The Statistical Learner

8.3 Survival Analysis

8.4 The Cox Proportional Hazards Model

8.5 Data Types

8.6 Case Study: FHLMC 30-Year Loan Level Prepayment Analysis

8.7 Survival Analysis—Modeling Loan Cohorts

Chapter 9: The Predictive Prepayment Model

9.1 Turnover

9.2 Loan Seasoning

9.3 Seasonality

9.4 Borrower Incentive to Refinance

9.5 Borrower Burnout

9.6 Application of the Prepayment Model

Part Three: Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities

Chapter 10: Mortgage Dollar Roll

10.1 Evaluating the Dollar Roll

10.2 Risk Associated with the Dollar Roll

Chapter 11: Relative Value Analysis

11.1 Liquidity

11.2 Static Cash Flow Analysis

11.3 Return Analysis

Chapter 12: Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

12.1 Numerical Methods of Modern Financial Theory

12.2 Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure

12.3 Calibrating the Model

12.4 Building the Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) Model

12.5 OAS Analysis as a Decision-Making Tool

12.6 OAS Distribution Analysis

12.7 OAS Analysis Strengths and Limitations

Part Four: Structuring Mortgage-Backed Securities

Chapter 13: Introduction to REMICs

13.1 Background and Legal Structure

13.2 Two-Tiered REMICs

13.3 REMIC Arbitrage

13.4 Bond Lab MBS Structuring Model

Chapter 14: Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities

14.1 Key Rate Duration Analysis

14.2 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

14.3 The Information Content of the IO-PO Market

Chapter 15: Sequentially Structured REMIC

15.1 Key Rate Duration Analysis

15.2 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

15.3 Weighted Average Life and Spot Spread Analysis

15.4 Static Cash Flow Analysis

Chapter 16: Planned Amortization Class (PAC) and Companion REMICs

16.1 The PAC Bond Sinking Fund Schedule

16.2 Key Rate Duration Analysis

16.3 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

16.4 OAS Distribution Analysis

16.5 A Final Word Regarding PAC Bands

16.6 Static Cash Flow Analysis

Chapter 17: Sequential IO REMIC

17.1 Key Rate Duration Analysis

17.2 OAS Distribution Analysis

Chapter 18: PAC-Floater-Inverse Floater REMIC

18.1 Structuring the Floater and Inverse Floater

18.2 A Framework for Floating Rate Securities

18.3 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

18.4 Key Rate Duration Analysis

Chapter 19: Accrual REMIC Z-Bond

19.1 Key Rate Duration Analysis

19.2 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

Part Five: Mortgage Credit Analysis

Chapter 20: Mortgage Default Modeling

20.1 Case Study FHLMC 30-Year Default Analysis

20.2 Other Variables Influencing Borrower Default

20.3 Spread at Origination (SATO) and Default

20.4 Default Model Selection

Chapter 21: The Predictive Default Model

21.1 Constant Default Rate

21.2 Borrower Original Loan-to-Value Default Multiplier

21.3 Updated Loan-to-Value Default Multiplier

21.4 Spread at Origination (SATO) Default Multipliers

21.5 Completing the Prepayment Model

Chapter 22: The Basics of Private-Label MBS

22.1 I Structure

22.2 H Structure

22.3 Y Structure

22.4 Shifting Interest

22.5 Deep Mortgage Insurance

MI

22.6 Excess Interest

22.7 Overcollateralization

22.8 Structural Credit Protection

22.9 Hedging Asset/Liability Mismatches

Chapter 23: Sizing Mortgage Credit Enhancement

23.1 Simulating Borrower Default Rates

23.2 Estimation of Cumulative Default Rates

23.3 Translating Credit Enhancement to a Third-Party Guarantee Fee

23.4 Role of the Credit Rating Agencies (NRSROs)

About the Website

Introduction to BondLab

Source Code for the BondLab R Package

Installation Instructions

Bibliography

Index

End User License Agreement

Pages

ii

v

xv

xvii

xviii

xix

xx

xxi

xxiii

xxiv

xxv

xxvi

1

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

149

150

151

152

153

155

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

166

167

169

170

171

172

173

174

175

176

177

178

179

181

182

183

184

185

186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

202

203

204

205

206

207

208

209

210

211

212

213

215

216

217

218

219

220

221

222

223

225

226

227

228

229

230

231

232

233

234

235

236

237

238

239

240

241

242

243

244

245

246

247

248

249

250

251

252

253

254

255

256

257

259

260

261

262

263

264

265

266

267

268

269

270

271

272

273

274

275

276

277

278

279

280

281

282

283

284

285

287

288

289

290

291

292

293

294

295

296

297

298

299

300

301

302

303

304

305

306

307

308

309

310

311

313

314

315

316

317

318

319

320

321

322

323

324

325

326

327

328

329

330

331

332

333

334

335

336

337

338

339

340

341

342

343

344

345

346

347

348

349

350

351

352

353

354

355

356

357

359

360

361

362

363

364

365

366

367

368

369

370

371

372

373

374

375

376

377

378

379

380

381

382

383

384

385

386

387

388

389

390

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1: The Time Value of Money

Figure 1.1 Present Value of a Single Payment

Figure 1.2 Future Value of a Single Sum Today

Figure 1.3 Present Value of Annuity Payment

Figure 1.4 Internal Rate of Return

Chapter 2: Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Figure 2.1 Interest Rate Swap Curve, Jan. 30, 2006

Figure 2.2 Forward and Spot Swap Rates, Jan. 30, 2006

Chapter 3: Fixed-Income Metrics

Figure 3.1 Price to Yield to Maturity

Figure 3.2 Coupon versus Duration

Figure 3.3 Maturity versus Duration

Figure 3.4 Convexity versus Duration

Figure 3.5 Hypothetical Spot and Forward Rate Curves

Figure 3.6 30-Year 4.0 MBS% Key Rate Duration

Chapter 4: The Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities

Figure 4.1 The Valuation Framework for Fixed-Income Securities

Figure 4.2 Yield Curve Steepens 50 Basis Points

Figure 4.3 Cash Flow Comparison—Swap Curve Steepens 50 Basis Points

Figure 4.4 Key Rate Duration—Swap Curve Steepens 50 Basis Points

Figure 4.5 Yield Curve Flattens 50 Basis Points

Figure 4.6 Cash Flow Comparison—Swap Curve Flattens 50 Basis Points

Figure 4.7 Key Rate Duration—Swap Curve Flattens 50 bps

Chapter 7: Modeling Cash Flows

Figure 7.1 PSA Mortgage Prepayment Assumption

Figure 7.2 Cash Flow Share Assuming 0% PPC

Figure 7.3 Pool Cash Flow Assuming 100% PPC

Chapter 8: Mortgage Prepayment Analysis

Figure 8.1 FH 30-yr. Cum. Survival

Figure 8.2 FH 30-yr. CPR

Figure 8.3 Distribution of Borrower Incentive

Figure 8.4

Loess Model

—Functional Form of Borrower Incentive

Figure 8.5

Actual Data

—CPR

Figure 8.6

Loess Data Fit

—CPR

Figure 8.7 Housing Turnover

Figure 8.8

Model Fit

—CPR

Figure 8.9

Actual Data

—CPR

Figure 8.10 Seasonal Factors

Figure 8.11 Loan Purpose

Figure 8.12

Test

—Refinance

Figure 8.13

Test

—Cash-out

Chapter 9: The Predictive Prepayment Model

Figure 9.1 Loan Seasoning

Figure 9.2 Model vs. Actual Seasonals

Figure 9.3 Slope

Figure 9.4 Inflection

Figure 9.5 ,

Figure 9.6 ,

Figure 9.7 S-curve by Loan Seasoning

Figure 9.8 S-curve Fast and Slow Payer

Figure 9.9 Burnout

Figure 9.10 Burnout

Figure 9.11 Loan Seasoning Multiplier

Figure 9.12 Seasonality Multiplier

Figure 9.13 S-curve Fast/Slow Payer

Figure 9.14 Burnout

Figure 9.15 Bond Lab® Mortgage Prepayment Model

Chapter 10: Mortgage Dollar Roll

Figure 10.1 Mechanics of the Mortgage Dollar Roll

Chapter 11: Relative Value Analysis

Figure 11.1 Forward Yield Curve

Figure 11.2 Return Analysis

Chapter 12: Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

Figure 12.1 CIR Simulated Interest Rate Paths

Figure 12.2 CIR Model with = 0.1

Figure 12.3 CIR Model with = 0.7

Figure 12.4 CIR Model with = 0.02

Figure 12.5 CIR Model with = 0.10

Figure 12.6 CIR Model with = 0.015

Figure 12.7 CIR Model with = 0.00

Figure 12.8 CIR Model Fit: Actual Swap Prices less Fit Swap Prices

Figure 12.9 CIR Model—Single Path

Figure 12.10 CIR Model Yield Curve

Figure 12.11 CIR Model, Simulated Short-Term Rate, 2- and 10-Year Swap Rates

Figure 12.12 CIR Model, MBS 5.50 Predicted SMM Vector

Figure 12.13 Short Rate Paths = 125

Figure 12.14 Short Rate Paths = 250

Figure 12.15 Short Rate Paths = 500

Figure 12.16 Short Rate Paths = 5,000

Figure 12.17 The Valuation Framework for Fixed-Income Securities

Figure 12.18 Price Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 12.19 Price Dist. MBS 5.50%

Figure 12.20 ZV Spd. MBS 4.00%

Figure 12.21 ZV Spd. MBS 5.50%

Figure 12.22 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 12.23 WAL Dist. MBS 5.50%

Figure 12.24 YTM Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 12.25 YTM Dist. MBS 5.50%

Chapter 13: Introduction to REMICs

Figure 13.1 REMIC Execution

Chapter 14: Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities

Figure 14.1 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00% Pass-Through

Figure 14.2 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00% Tranche 1 (IO)

Figure 14.3 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00%

Figure 14.4 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00% Tranche 2 (PO)

Figure 14.5 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 14.6 WAL Dist. Tranche 1 (IO)

Figure 14.7 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 14.8 WAL Dist. Tranche 2 (PO)

Figure 14.9 YTM Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 14.10 YTM Dist. Tranche 1 (IO)

Figure 14.11 YTM Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 14.12 YTM Dist. Tranche 2 (PO)

Figure 14.13 Price Dist. Tranche 1 (IO)

Figure 14.14 Price Dist. Tranche 2 (PO)

Chapter 15: Sequentially Structured REMIC

Figure 15.1 Sequential Principal Cash Flow Diagram

Figure 15.2 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00%

Figure 15.3 Key Rate Duration Tranche A

Figure 15.4 Key Rate Duration Tranche B

Figure 15.5 Key Rate Duration Tranche C

Figure 15.6 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 15.7 WAL Dist. Tranche A

Figure 15.8 Tranche A—Spot Spread Distribution

Figure 15.9 WAL Dist. Tranche B

Figure 15.10 Spot Spd. Dist. Tranche B

Figure 15.11 WAL Dist. Tranche C

Figure 15.12 Spot Spd. Dist. Tranche C

Figure 15.13 Average Life Analysis

Chapter 16: Planned Amortization Class (PAC) and Companion REMICs

Figure 16.1 PAC Bond Schedule

Figure 16.2 PAC Bond Schedule

Figure 16.3 Broken PAC Bond Principal Repayment vs. Scheduled

Figure 16.4 Key Rate Duration MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.5 Key Rate Duration Tranche 1 (PAC)

Figure 16.6 KRD MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.7 KRD Tranche 2 (Comp.)

Figure 16.8 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.9 WAL Dist. PAC

Figure 16.10 Spot Spd. MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.11 Spot Spd. Dist. PAC

Figure 16.12 WAL Dist. MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.13 WAL Dist. Companion

Figure 16.14 Spot Spread MBS 4.00%

Figure 16.15 Spot Spread Dist. Comp.

Figure 16.16 Average Life Analysis

Chapter 17: Sequential IO REMIC

Figure 17.1 SMBS 4.00% Key Rate Duration

Figure 17.2 SEQ IO Key Rate Duration

Figure 17.3 SMBS 4.00% IO Price Dist

Figure 17.4 SEQ IO Price Dist.

Chapter 18: PAC-Floater-Inverse Floater REMIC

Figure 18.1 Interest Rate Cap Forward Curve Analysis

Figure 18.2 Key Rate Duration—Floating Rate Bond

Figure 18.3 Key Rate Duration—Inverse Floating Rate Bond

Chapter 19: Accrual REMIC Z-Bond

Figure 19.1 Comparison of Companion Bond Execution

Figure 19.2 Average Life Analysis

Figure 19.3 Z-Bond Key Rate Duration Analysis

Figure 19.4 MBS 4.00% Avg. Life Dist.

Figure 19.5 Z-bond Avg. Life Dist.

Figure 19.6 MBS 4.00% Spot Spd. Dist.

Figure 19.7 Z-bond Spot Spd. Dist.

Chapter 20: Mortgage Default Modeling

Figure 20.1 FH 30-yr. Cum. Survival

Figure 20.2 FH 30-yr. CDR

Figure 20.3 Default Freq. Orig. LTV

Figure 20.4 Default Freq. Updated LTV

Figure 20.5 Orig. LTV Odds Ratio

Figure 20.6 Updated LTV Odds Ratio

Figure 20.7 Orig. Loan-to-Value Odds Ratio

Figure 20.8 Change in Loan-to-Value Odds Ratio

Figure 20.9 Borrower Credit Score Odds Ratio

Figure 20.10 Borrower Debt to Income Odds Ratio

Figure 20.11 Borrower SATO Odds Ratio

Figure 20.12 Default Model Comparison

Figure 20.13 Default Model SATO Comparison

Chapter 21: The Predictive Default Model

Figure 21.1 Baseline Agency Default Assumption

Figure 21.2 Baseline Agency Default Assumption

Figure 21.3 Updated Loan-to-Value Ratio Default Multipliers

Figure 21.4 Borrower SATO Default Multipliers

Figure 21.5 Predicted Default 80% LTV and −0.50% SATO

Figure 21.6 Predicted Default 100% LTV and 1.25% SATO

Chapter 22: The Basics of Private-Label MBS

Figure 22.1 Prime MBS Credit Enhancement at Deal Inception

Figure 22.2 H Credit Enhancement Structure

Figure 22.3 Y Credit Enhancement Structure

Figure 22.4 Agency Mortgage Default Timing Curve

Figure 22.5 Hedging with an Interest Rate Cap

Figure 22.6 Hedging with an Interest Rate Cap

Chapter 23: Sizing Mortgage Credit Enhancement

Figure 23.1 Home Price Paths Short Rate = 0.25%

Figure 23.2 Home Price Paths Short Rate = 20.00%

Figure 23.3 Simulated Annualized Default Rate

Figure 23.4 Simulated Cumulative Default Rates

Figure 23.5 Prime Mortgage Cumulative Loss Distribution

Figure 23.6 Prime Mortgage Cumulative Density Loss Function

List of Tables

Chapter 2: Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Table 2.1 Spot Rate Curve (zero coupon yields)

Table 2.2 1-Year Forward Rate in 1 Year

Table 2.3 1-Year Forward Rate in 2 Years

Table 2.5 Nelson-Siegel Terms

Table 2.6 Calculation of Forward Rates

Chapter 3: Fixed-Income Metrics

Table 3.1 Estimated YTM

Table 3.2 Yield to Maturity

Table 3.3 Yield to Maturity, Sinking Fund Bond vs. Single Payment at Maturity

Table 3.4 Zero Coupon Bond Portfolio Weighted Average Life

Table 3.5 Weighted Average Life

Table 3.6 Macaulay Duration Calculation

Table 3.7 Calculation of Convexity

Table 3.8 Hypothetical Yield Curve

Table 3.9 Fisher-Weil Duration

Table 3.10 Fisher-Weil Convexity

Table 3.11 Parametric Comparison of Yield to Maturity vs. Spot Rate Curve Valuation

Table 3.12 Comparison of Duration and Convexity Measures

Table 3.13 Hypothetical Coupon and Spot Rate Curve

Chapter 4: The Valuation of Fixed-Income Securities

Table 4.1 MBS Base Case Parametric Analysis

Table 4.2 Base Case Yield Curve—Jan. 10, 2013

Table 4.3 Yield Curve Scenarios

Table 4.4 Effective Duration—Swap Curve Steepens 50 Basis Points

Table 4.5 MBS Steepen Parametric Analysis

Table 4.6 Effective Duration—Swap Curve Flattens 50 Basis Points

Table 4.7 MBS Flattening Parametric Analysis

Table 4.8 Comparative Analysis of Scenario Outcomes

Chapter 5: Fixed-Income Return Analysis

Table 5.1 Return Matrix Input—Coupon Income

Table 5.2 Return Matrix: Coupon Income plus Reinvestment

Table 5.3 Hypothetical Swap Rate Curve

Chapter 6: Understanding Mortgage Lending and Loans

Table 6.1 Economics of Foreclosure Liquidation

Table 6.2 Economics of Foreclosure Liquidation with PMI

Table 6.3 Net Operating Income

Table 6.4 Mortgage Amortization Table

Chapter 7: Modeling Cash Flows

Table 7.1 MBS Cash Flow Table

Chapter 8: Mortgage Prepayment Analysis

Table 8.1 Kaplan-Meier Survivorship

Table 8.2 Referent Cell Coding

Table 8.3 Cox Model—Incentive

Table 8.4 Cox Model—LoanAge, Incentive

Table 8.5 ANOVA—Incentive vs. LoanAge, Incentive

Table 8.6 ANOVA—Incentive, LoanAge vs. Incentive, LoanAge, Month

Table 8.7 ANOVA Loan Purpose

Table 8.8 Loan Purpose Coefficient Analysis

Table 8.9 Results of Model Stratification on Time

Chapter 9: The Predictive Prepayment Model

Table 9.1 Model Parameter

Table 9.2 Seasonals

Table 9.3 Fast, Slow Payer Tuning Parameters

Table 9.4 Burnout Tuning Parameters

Table 9.5 Refinance Analysis by Original Balance

Chapter 10: Mortgage Dollar Roll

Table 10.1 Breakven Drop Calculation

Table 10.2 Implied Cost of Funds

Table 10.3 Hold-versus-Roll Analysis

Chapter 11: Relative Value Analysis

Table 11.1 Bid-to-Offer Recovery Analysis

Table 11.2 Jan. 10, 2013, Swap Curve

Table 11.3 MBS 4.00% Cash-Flow Analysis

Table 11.4 MBS 5.50% Cash Flow Analysis

Chapter 12: Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

Table 12.1 Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

Table 12.2 Price Distribution Summary Statistics

Table 12.3 Spot Spread-Adjusted Spread Analysis

Chapter 14: Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities

Table 14.1 REMIC IO-PO Analysis

Table 14.2 REMIC IO-PO OAS Analysis

Table 14.3 REMIC IO-PO OAS Analysis

Table 14.4 IO Prepayment Sentiment

Chapter 15: Sequentially Structured REMIC

Table 15.1 REMIC Sequential Analysis

Table 15.2 REMIC Sequential OAS Analysis

Chapter 16: Planned Amortization Class (PAC) and Companion REMICs

Table 16.1 PAC Bond Cash Flow Example

Table 16.2 REMIC PAC-Companion Analysis

Table 16.3 REMIC PAC-Companion OAS Analysis

Chapter 17: Sequential IO REMIC

Table 17.1 REMIC Sequential OAS Analysis

Table 17.2 REMIC Sequential OAS Analysis

Chapter 18: PAC-Floater-Inverse Floater REMIC

Table 18.1 REMIC PAC-PAC IO-Floater-Inverse Floater

Table 18.2 REMIC PAC-PAC IO-Floater-Inverse Floater OAS Analysis

Chapter 19: Accrual REMIC Z-Bond

Table 19.1 REMIC PAC-Companion-Z OAS Analysis

Chapter 20: Mortgage Default Modeling

Table 20.1 Logistic Default Model

Table 20.2 Logistic Default Model

Table 20.3 Confusion Matrix Model Comparison

Chapter 21: The Predictive Default Model

Table 21.1 OAS Analysis

Table 21.2 OAS Analysis

Chapter 22: The Basics of Private-Label MBS

Table 22.1 Available Funds Cap Calculation

The Wiley Finance series contains books written specifically for finance and investment professionals, as well as sophisticated individual investors and their financial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk management, financial engineering, valuation and financial instrument analysis, as well as much more. For a list of available titles, visit our website at www.WileyFinance.com.

Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers' professional and personal knowledge and understanding.

Investing in Mortgage-Backed and Asset-Backed Securities

Financial Modeling with R and Open Source Analytics + Website

GLENN M. SCHULTZ, CFA FOREWORD BY FRANK J. FABOZZI, PH.D., CFA

 

Copyright © 2016 by Glenn M. Schultz. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002.

Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Names: Schultz, Glenn M., author.

Title: Investing in mortgage and asset backed securities, $+$ website :

financial modeling with r and open source analytics / Glenn M. Schultz ;

foreword by Frank J. Fabozzi.

Description: Hoboken : Wiley, 2016. | Series: Wiley finance | Includes

bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2015035916 (print) | LCCN 2015047714 (ebook) |

ISBN 9781118944004 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119221531 (ePDF) |

ISBN 9781119221500 (ePub)

Subjects: LCSH: Mortgage-backed securities. | Securities. | Investments. |

BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Investments & Securities.

Classification: LCC HG4655 .S387 2016 (print) | LCC HG4655 (ebook) | DDC

332.63/244—dc23

LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015035916

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © Max Krasnov/Shutterstock

To Missi and Blake

Foreword

Glenn's 20+ years of experience in structured finance is reflected in this book. Portfolio management, MBS investment banking and structuring, and loan level prepayment modeling are among his expertise. Glenn contributed to The Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, several editions of The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities, and The Handbook of Nonagency Mortgage-Backed Securities. In 2003, he was honored for his structuring expertise with the IDD/ASR award for the Most Innovative ABS Transaction of the Year.

Glenn's broad experience highlights that investing in mortgage-backed securities requires a multidisciplinary approach including securities law, structuring techniques, and the modeling of econometric data and consumer behavior, both of which fall under the rubric of big data analysis. Furthermore, the proliferation of data and the analysis thereof have brought the concept of reproducible research to the forefront. Ultimately, research or experiments that can be reproduced are more reliable than those which cannot be reproduced. Reproducing the research of others is not only a checking process but it also provides a jump-point for future exploration. Investing in Mortgage-Backed and Asset-Backed Securities was written in the spirit of reproducible research and introduces Bond Lab, the first object-oriented and open source software that Glenn created for the analysis of mortgage- and asset-backed securities.

Bond Lab is programmed in R, the statistical computing language of choice, and allows the reader to replicate the analysis presented herein, view the code that created the results, and extend the analysis in any direction one chooses. Furthermore, the commercial acceptance of R on cloud computing platforms offers the investor a promise of unlimited scalability. By harnessing the power of R and open source computing, Bond Lab charts the course for the investor to create a custom technology stack meeting and expressing one's unique view with respect to the mortgage-backed securities market, thereby creating true alpha.

Frank J. Fabozzi, Ph.D, CFAProfessor of Finance, EDHEC Business SchoolandEditor, Journal of Portfolio Management

Preface

It is not the critic who counts;…The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena,…who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!