Sports Betting For Dummies E-Book

Swain Scheps

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Lebensstil
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 766

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2020

Beschreibung

The sports gambling book you can bet on Sports betting combines America's national pastime (sports) with its national passion (gambling). In the U.S., more than a third of the population bets on at least one sporting event every year. With the recent lifting of the federal ban on sports gambling, states are pushing legislation to take advantage of the new potential source of revenue. The best sports betting books are data driven, statistically honest, and offer ways to take action. Sports Betting For Dummies will cover the basics, as well as delving into more nuanced topics. You'll find all the need-to-know information on types of bets, statistics, handicapping fundamentals, and more. * Betting on football, basketball, baseball, and other sports * Betting on special events, such as the Superbowl or the Olympics * Money management * Betting on the internet With handy tips, tricks, and tools, Sports Betting For Dummies shows you how to place the right bet at the right time--to get the right payoff.

Leseprobe

Sports Betting For Dummies®

Published by: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, www.wiley.com

Copyright © 2020 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada

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Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2020904219

ISBN 978-1-119-65438-4 (pbk); ISBN 978-1-119-74861-8 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-119-74862-5 (ebk)

Sports Betting For Dummies®

To view this book's Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and search for “Sports Betting For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box.

List of Tables

Chapter 1

TABLE 1-1 Sports Betting Revenue in Nevada

TABLE 1-2 Comparing Bettors

TABLE 1-3 State Laws on Sports Betting

Chapter 2

TABLE 2-1 Moneylines and Profits for Favorites

TABLE 2-2 Moneylines and Profits for Underdogs

TABLE 2-3 Parlay Payouts at –110 Odds

Chapter 5

TABLE 5-1 Sample ROI Worksheet

TABLE 5-2 Sample Profit Worksheet

Chapter 10

TABLE 10-1 NFL Major Rule Changes and Scoring Summary

TABLE 10-2 Quarter-by-Quarter Scoring by Season

TABLE 10-3 Spreads and Over/Under Results

TABLE 10-4 NFL Moneylines and Point Spreads

TABLE 10-5 Rest Days in the NFL

TABLE 10-6 Rest Differential

Chapter 11

TABLE 11-1 College Football Scoring Averages

TABLE 11-2 Ten-Year Averages of Power 5 Conferences

TABLE 11-3 College Football Parlay Odds

TABLE 11-4 Common College Football Teaser Odds

TABLE 11-5 The Effects of Rest Days

TABLE 11-6 Scoring by Quarter

TABLE 11-7 Rushing versus Passing

TABLE 11-8 Turnovers and Scoring

Chapter 12

TABLE 12-1 NBA Regular Season Totals of 225 or Higher

TABLE 12-2 Records of Home Favorites of 12 Points or More

TABLE 12-3 Regular Season versus Postseason Scoring

TABLE 12-4 Spread and Total Performance by Round and Seed

TABLE 12-5 NBA Margins of Victory

TABLE 12-6 Point Spreads and Moneylines

TABLE 12-7 NBA Quarter Stats

TABLE 12-8 Rest Days Home and Away

TABLE 12-9 Points per Game for Traveling Teams

TABLE 12-10 The Elevation and PPG

Chapter 13

TABLE 13-1 Total Points and Margins in Recent Seasons

TABLE 13-2 Results for Home and Road Favorites

TABLE 13-3 College Basketball Totals

TABLE 13-4 Comparison of 1st Half and 2nd Half Scoring

TABLE 13-5 ATS Wins and Losses by Month

TABLE 13-6 Standard Payoffs for Basketball Teaser Bets

TABLE 13-7 NCAA Tournament Results

TABLE 13-8 The Best Finishes for Each Seed

Chapter 14

TABLE 14-1 MLB Games with Moneyline and Run Line Odds

TABLE 14-2 Major League Baseball’s Recent Scoring History

TABLE 14-3 MLB Home Field Advantage

TABLE 14-4 Betting Big Favorites

Chapter 17

TABLE 17-1 Carolina Panthers 2018 Season

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1

FIGURE 1-1: Sharps versus squares.

Chapter 4

FIGURE 4-1: More sharp money is on the Utes, so the overall imbalance is accept...

FIGURE 4-2: The cone of uncertainty. As we project time out into the future, th...

Chapter 6

FIGURE 6-1: Lottery number patterns.

FIGURE 6-2: A bell curve of coin flip results.

FIGURE 6-3: The bell curve resulting from many trials of 100 coin flips each.

Chapter 10

FIGURE 10-1: How odds for NFL games are displayed.

FIGURE 10-2: NFL key numbers for point spread betting.

FIGURE 10-3: NFL total scores average around 45.4 points.

FIGURE 10-4: The frequency of total game scores.

Chapter 11

FIGURE 11-1: College football home margin frequency.

FIGURE 11-2: College football total score frequency.

Chapter 14

FIGURE 14-1: Baseball odds notation and explanation

Chapter 16

FIGURE 16-1: Pasting a relative reference.

FIGURE 16-2: Pasting an absolute reference.

FIGURE 16-3: Pasting a partially absolute reference.

FIGURE 16-4: Using named ranges.

FIGURE 16-5: Using the basic VLookup command.

FIGURE 16-6: Using vlookup with a named range.

FIGURE 16-7: Referring to a multi-column table.

FIGURE 16-8: Checking conditions with an IF statement.

FIGURE 16-9: Using IfError to sniff out bad data.

FIGURE 16-10: Tracking win percentage for bets other than –100 moneyline odds.

FIGURE 16-11: Column E gives you normalized results.

FIGURE 16-12: Calculating bet amounts with the Kelly formula.

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

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Foreword

By Norm Hitzges

Betting on sports is about looking forward, hoping to find clues or insights that will lead you to betting on the right side of a game. But good bettors also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will whisper, “You're a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain.

If you're about to step tentatively into the sometime mystifying world of sports wagering, you must first understand one truism: No matter how long you work at it, sports betting will always provide moments where you’ll feel like a dummy. Being wrong — sometimes badly, terribly, even embarrassingly wrong — is part of the deal.

And sometimes your luck will be so bad, you won’t even be granted the dignity of merely being wrong! Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby. You must accept them and move on as quickly as possible hoping that it all “evens out in the end.” (That sentiment, while true, has never made anyone feel one bit better.)

Sports betting also involves work. Are you ready for it? Anybody can make a bet on a “hunch” and win a few bucks and have some laughs, but this isn’t something you can dabble at if you expect to be consistently good at it. You’ll need to study the sports betting marketplace, get comfortable with betting strategies and odds, find ways to research teams and players, and learn to keep good records. It takes time, patience, and no small amount of courage. (Did I mention those bad beats?)

So why do so many of us participate? Sports betting is fun. Not just game-of-Parcheesi-fun or go-to-the-movies fun. I’m talking about genuine exhilaration. Betting takes what you already love about sports to the next level. When you pick a winner, it can feel like you’ve solved a seemingly impossible riddle or uncovered a secret that nobody else knows. When you win a bet that all of your friends said you were crazy to make, it’s a flavor of elation you won’t soon forget.

So put aside your fear of being a dummy and start reading! Good luck, and I’ll see you at the betting window… .

Norm Hitzges is a Texas Radio Hall of Fame member in his 45th straight year on the air in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Norm is a veteran horse and sports handicapper and industry insider whose picks are offered every Friday as his acclaimed “Picks of the Pole” segment on KTCK (1310 AM / 96.7 FM, “SportsRadio 1310 The Ticket”). Norm also donates considerable time and energy to charitable work for many organizations, including the Austin Street Center and Texans Can Academy.

Introduction

Let’s get one thing straight: Sports betting is an intellectual challenge with a tangible life-affirming, pocket-book-enhancing result at the end of each event (if all goes well). It’s a test of your puzzle-solving skills. Can you find the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that the rest of the world missed?

In the old days, you’d have to travel to Nevada or have “a guy” if you wanted to bet on a sporting event. As the internet evolved, those with enough patience and tolerance for risk could pursue bets through offshore casinos. Thankfully, in this modern age, there are now a handful of states and Canadian provinces that permit sports betting. So if you’re traveling to one of those regions, or if you’re like me and you maintain an account with an online bookmaker, this is the book for you.

About This Book

If you’ve ever placed a friendly wager on a sporting event, then you understand the potential for fun. This book is going to explain the how the gambling market evolved for sports. I’ll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I'll discuss how the sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate.

In addition to the structure of the bet, I’ll show you the step-by-step process for opening an account with an online bookmaker, and I'll show you how to read the menu of bets available at a casino or online bookmaker. I’ll then show you how to recognize good bets and walk you through the process of placing a wager. My goal is to help you understand what you’re up against, how you lose, and hopefully, how you win. Then I’ll go sport by sport and talk about what it means to handicap a game, pick a winner, and bring home the bacon over the long run.

Las Vegas sports books have had one losing month over the last decade (July 2013, if you must know). Don’t expect to stack money up by just throwing bets down on your favorite teams and players. Betting on sports is a process. Hobbyists are lucky if they break even. Professionals quit their day job if they can win 57 or 58 percent of their bets. I’ll talk about why that’s the case in this book, and I'll show you how you can emulate good bet-selection practices and payroll management.

But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I’m interested in putting you in a position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep uncontrollably in the same day. Does that happen in your book club? Does stamp collecting invoke such highs and lows? Does golf? (Okay, maybe golf does.)

Many gambling books are built on assertions and platitudes, with little backing data. The point of this book is to not only provide you actionable strategies but to also build a foundation for you to find your own. I will help you learn how to interpret the betting market and how to assess betting propositions logically and quantitatively. I'll help you recognize when a tout is giving you a line of b.s. (can't curse in Dummies books), of which there is far too much of in this arena. I’ll talk about the difference between something that’s been asserted and something that has numbers behind it.

Sure, this book has “principles” and “rules of thumb” in spades. You’ll learn lots of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that. But I also want to provide you with actionable intelligence. I’m holding nothing back: If I know a profitable approach to betting (like betting the home favorite the day after a double-header), I’m going to tell you about it. If I’ve learned bets to avoid, I’m going to tell you about them. I’m not only going to teach you to fish; I’m going to serve you some delicious sushi.

Gambling has its own private language, and sports betting has a sub-species of gamble-speak. This, more than the underlying concepts, can often be the biggest barrier to transitioning from a fan to a financially interested fan. So first and foremost, I’m going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports betting.

Just so you know in advance, I’ll set certain things apart in this book in specific ways so you know just what to do with the content:

When there’s a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should remember, I’ll

italicize

it and define it.

There will be a chapter devoted to statistics and probability, and where a stand-alone equation is necessary, I’ll explain each part to you.

Although it’s not a requirement, there will also be references to Microsoft Excel functions and Excel VBA code. Most of it is in

Chapter 16

.

Different parts of the world have different ways of presenting odds to gamblers. I plan on using American odds notation.

Before You Go Any Further

The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of information on sports betting. I'm going to promote beginners into functional sports betting dabblers. And I'm going to make knowledgeable gamblers out of dabblers. And if you think you’re already more than just a dabbler, the book will introduce you to the full variety of popular sports and handicapping methodologies.

Having said that, it’s not possible to cover every single opportunity to risk money on the outcome of a sporting event. There are so many sports and so many different kinds of bets out there. My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most underserved in libraries and bookstores today. If your “thing” is water polo or frog-jumping, or a sport or bet not covered in this book, I wish you much success, and I admit I won’t have much to add.

So here are the topics that will either be lightly covered or downright ignored:

Pari-mutuel betting (horse and dog racing, jai alai)

Season-long fantasy sports

Prediction markets (like betting on the Oscars or election results)

Office pools (I will talk about placing bets on the Super Bowl and March Madness, but the focus will be on wagering, not winning goofy office contests.)

E-sports

Daily fantasy sports

The sports I’ve selected for this book are the ones most appealing to American and fans and bettors. If you’re not a resident of North America, there is plenty in this book to help grow your understanding of sports betting in general and your approach to assessing and placing bets. But beware that if you have a specific sport you want to see addressed and it’s not a sport that’s terribly popular in North America, do yourself a favor and check the table of contents before embarking on this journey. I have no doubt that soccer, hockey, cricket, darts, handball, billiards, and bicycle racing are enthralling sports to watch and bet on, and I believe there are applicable lessons herein, but I’m sorry to say that I will not be specifically addressing those endeavors.

Foolish Assumptions

I can picture you, dear reader, reading this book. It was actually quite easy: When you ordered the book, your Alexa contacted my Alexa and told me everything about you. Here’s what she told me, and here’s the starting point for the book:

You’re probably a dude. Research says when it comes to gambling activities, women prefer games based on luck, and men prefer games where skill is involved. It’s a control thing. Given how much luck is involved in winning sports bets, you ladies should really give this hobby another look-see. This is a fun hobby, and if you’re a person of the female persuasion, I’d like to offer a non-threatening platonic high-five welcoming you aboard. We could use more gender equality in terms of the bettors and so-called celebrity experts.

There’s a distinct possibility that you are an avid fan of at least one major team sport; you might own a jersey with a spoiled millionaire’s name on the back. If the team’s any good, when their games are on TV, you cancel all plans, turn on your email “out of office” notification, and ask your significant other to find something else to do.

Let’s not kid each other. If you’re a North American, you love either college or pro football. You might gripe about somebody taking a knee during the anthem, but you’re not gonna stop watching. And you likely have a secondary sport like baseball or golf that you’ll watch as well. This book will devote a lot of pages to winning football bets because, well, do we have to keep talking about it?

You’re a fantasy sports player. That makes you not only a fan but also a stat connoisseur. That’s a good skill set to bring to the table. My guess is you get a little frustrated with the over-random nature of fantasy sports, which makes sports betting appealing to you.

I’d be willing to, er, bet, that you don’t have a moral objection to gambling. You might even have a friend who regularly places bets, and you’d like to be able to converse intelligently about sports betting with him or her.

For sports you’re less enthusiastic about, maybe it’s tennis or baseball, you know, or at least suspect, that your level of fan intensity will rise exponentially if you have a dollar riding on the outcome. You’ve discovered the secret joy of sports betting (which is that a $1 wager can turn basket-weaving into the last episode of

The Sopranos

).

If you have some familiarity with the art and science of sports betting, you know there’s more to learn, and you want to learn enough to keep your head above water. You don’t mind losing a few bucks, but you’d rather win a few bucks.

If you are a regular sports bettor, you are looking for ways to bump up your winning percentage, or maybe you just want to expand your horizons and dig into more detail about sports you might not normally watch or bet on.

Icons Used in This Book

The icons are like little signposts to help readers recognize when critical information is about to come their way.

If you see this icon, I'm giving you some advice that's so on-point and important, you’ll want to take note of it.

There are all kinds of pitfalls when it comes to gambling in general and with sports betting in particular. If they can be summarized neatly and succinctly, I’ll put this icon next to them so that you can avoid having something explode in your face.

This book is full of facts and concepts that you'll want to commit to memory, so you'll see this icon next to those paragraphs.

Beyond the Book

This book comes with a free online Cheat Sheet that gives you some simple reminders of sports betting tenets, definitions, and even some standard odds you should keep in mind when you bet.

To get this Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and enter “Sports Betting For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box.

Where to Go from Here

If you’re starting from scratch, and you don’t know how sports betting markets work, what a bookmaker is, or how they make money, I suggest you start at the start and work through the chapters of Part 1.

If you know the basics but need a little refresher on some of the more advanced concepts related to sports betting, skip ahead to Part 2.

If you’re a more experienced gambler and are interested in my approach to betting football, basketball, and/or baseball, you can head straight for Part 3 and beyond, where I’ll discuss specific sports and ways to master the craft.

Part 1

Sports Betting Basics

IN THIS PART …

Get off to a fast start with sports betting by learning the essentials: how it works, why it’s so popular, and what the law says about it.

Get a feel for the mechanics of a sports bet and learn some key terminology you’ll need to know to move forward.

Assess yourself as a sports bettor and set some realistic goals for yourself.

If you need a refresher, read up on the most popular bet types so you can bet like a pro in no time.

Dip your toe into the basics of betting math and probability.

Get to know the organizations that post the odds and take your bets, and discover how to make your first sports bet.