Technology Roadmap: Cases and Opportunities E-Book

Suzana Borschiver

• Herausgeber: Editora Appris
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 152

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024

Beschreibung

This book discusses the concepts of Technological Foresight and Technological Roadmap, which are essential for preparing the Case Studies presented on Biogas, Automation and Information Technologies for Occupational Health and Safety, and Digital Technologies in Occupational Health. The book aims to provide decision-makers with a foundation for strategic planning, anticipating market and technological trends, as well as windows of opportunity.

Leseprobe

Sumário

INTRODUCTION

1

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP – CASE STUDIES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Marcello José Pio

Suzana Borschiver

2

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

Suzana Borschiver

Andrezza Lemos

3

TECHNOLOGY ROUTES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF BIOGAS FROM STRAW

Fernanda de Souza Cardoso

Suzana Borschiver

Aline Souza Tavares

4

AUTOMATION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES APPLIED TO OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY (OHS) MANAGEMENT

Aline Souza Tavares

Suzana Borschiver

5

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Suzana Borschiver

Aline Souza Tavares

Andrezza Lemos Rangel da Silva

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Pontos de referência

Cover

Sumário

Technology Roadmap

Cases and Opportunities

Editora Appris Ltda.

1.ª Edição - Copyright© 2024 dos autores

Direitos de Edição Reservados à Editora Appris Ltda.

Nenhuma parte desta obra poderá ser utilizada indevidamente, sem estar de acordo com a Lei nº 9.610/98. Se incorreções forem encontradas, serão de exclusiva responsabilidade de seus organizadores. Foi realizado o Depósito Legal na Fundação Biblioteca Nacional, de acordo com as Leis nos 10.994, de 14/12/2004, e 12.192, de 14/01/2010.Catalogação na Fonte

Elaborado por: Dayanne Leal Souza

Bibliotecária CRB 9/2162

B738t - 2024

Borschiver, Suzana

Technology roadmap: cases and opportunities

Suzana Borschiver e Aline Souza Tavares.

1. ed. – Curitiba: Appris, 2024.

[recurso eletrônico]

1 arquivo digital : EPUB

Inclui referências.

ISBN 978-65-250-6261-7

1. Technology roadmap. 2. Innovation management. 3. Technology management.

I. Borschiver, Suzana. II. Tavares, Aline Souza. III. Título. IV. Série.

CDD – 600

Livro de acordo com a normalização técnica da ABNT

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Printed in Brazil

Impresso no Brasil

Suzana Borschiver Aline Souza Tavares

Technology Roadmap

Cases and Opportunities

Curitiba, PR 2024

ficha técnica

Editorial

Augusto Coelho

Sara C. de Andrade Coelho

Comitê editorial

Ana El Achkar (UNIVERSO/RJ)

Andréa Barbosa Gouveia (UFPR)

Conrado Moreira Mendes (PUC-MG)

Eliete Correia dos Santos (UEPB)

Fabiano Santos (UERJ/IESP)

Francinete Fernandes de Sousa (UEPB)

Francisco Carlos Duarte (PUCPR)

Francisco de Assis (Fiam-Faam, SP, Brasil)

Jacques de Lima Ferreira (UP)

Juliana Reichert Assunção Tonelli (UEL)

Maria Aparecida Barbosa (USP)

Maria Helena Zamora (PUC-Rio)

Maria Margarida de Andrade (Umack)

Marilda Aparecida Behrens (PUCPR)

Marli Caetano

Roque Ismael da Costa Güllich (UFFS)

Toni Reis (UFPR)

Valdomiro de Oliveira (UFPR)

Valério Brusamolin (IFPR)

SUPERVISOR DA PRODUÇÃO

Renata Cristina Lopes Miccelli

PRODUÇÃO EDITORIAL

Bruna Holmen

Revisão

Bruna Fernanda Martins

Diagramação

Andrezza Libel

capa

Kananda Ferreira

REVISÃO DE PROVA

Bruna Santos

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Postgraduate Program in Chemical and Biochemical Process Engineering (EPQB) at the School of Chemistry (EQ) of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and the Academic Excellence Program (PROEX-CAPES), linked to EPQB, for their invaluable support.

PREFACE 1

The uncertainty about the future is impacted as much by the past as it is by the present and affects industrial processes, management practices, the supply and quality of inputs and the regulatory environment that surrounds us. It is essential to have the ability to draw possible futures, so that we can be better positioned for more assertive decision making and lower uncertainty.

The theoretical and practical work developed over the past 20 years by the Center for Industrial and Technological Studies at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) under the enlightened leadership of Prof. Suzana Borschiver, is once more offered to the general public with the publication of the second edition of this book, now with an emphasis on case studies.

The case studies illustrate the practical application of the methodology described and are examples of the strength of the theory and the value of its conclusions. Technology Roadmaps are presented in the themes of straw biogas, the application of automation technology, information, management of occupational security and safety.

The use of Technology Roadmaps is certainly the smartest way to prepare us for the diverse and potential futures be it in the industrial, governmental, or academic environments. It consists of an important tool for strategic planning, that is aligned to the status of the market, product, and technology. One’s goal – and that is the usefulness of this book – is to decide today the paths that increase the probability, not only of survival, but also of remaining relevant in an increasingly uncertain future. Businessman and entrepreneurs need to familiarize themselves with the existing tools, recommended for the design of the future.

This book represents a very important contribution to society. It should be on the shelf of all who seek a deeper knowledge on ‘future studies’ with a technological perspective. I hope it serves an inspiration for companies all over the World.

Pedro Wongtschowski

President of the Superior Council of Innovation and Competitiveness of Fiesp

PREFACE 2

The book Technology Roadmap: Case Studies and Opportunities consolidates the leadership of Prof. Suzana Borschiver in this important area of research. Today, the decision-making process for a company to invest in a specific technology or business opportunity involves several aspects. Besides the capital and operational expenditures, the life cycle analysis of a technology, together with the knowledge of competing technologies and players are of prime importance. Thus, Technology Roadmap studies can help in this step, identifying current technologies and players in a particular subject or business opportunity, also forecasting how they may evolve within a particular time frame. Therefore, it is becoming an important tool for executives and the technical staff of companies to take decisions with respect to investments and new business opportunities.

The first chapter encompasses the philosophy and methods related to the strategic planning. In any decision-making process, the first step must involve a view of the future. In other words, it is where the company wants to be in relation to a particular technology or position in the forthcoming years. Thus, mapping the potential expectations and threats is part of the strategic planning. The chapter also highlights some of the most used methods for defining the strategic planning, such as Swot and Pestel analyses, as well as interviewing approaches, like the Delphi Method.

In chapter two, the authors describe the main theory and methods used to construct a Technology Roadmap. Besides the technology itself, a Technology Roadmap may also encompass aspects of business, strategy, and innovation, being an essential tool in the decision-making process. The types of Technology Roadmaps and the taxonomy normally used are detailed, providing a strong theoretical basis for students and professionals who want to be familiarized with this tool. In addition, some particular methodologies of Technology Roadmap creation are highlighted, including the one developed by the Neitec group at UFRJ.

The next chapters describe case studies, but also serve to showing how the theory and methods explained in the first two chapters can be used. Chapter three is focused on the Technology Roadmap for biogas production from straw. It begins with a contextualization of the topic, covering the production and uses of biogas, as well as its importance in a scenario of energy transition. Then, a detailed description of the R&D strategy, based on information available in websites, press releases, patents and articles is included, together with the most important drives that characterize the subject and that may be used to construct the Technology Roadmap, such as process, product, equipment, type of treatment and feedstock. In the sequence, a deep discussion of the Technology Roadmap is presented and associated with short, medium, and Long Terms, providing a complete view of the technologies and players related to the subject, not only in current days, but also with a view to the future.

Chapter four is dedicated to Occupational Health and Safety Management (OHS). This subject may sound out of scope for a book related with technology, but it exemplifies how broad and of general scope a Technology Roadmap can be. Initially, the chapter contextualizes what OHS is in terms of prevention, protection, and management of the work force. In this sense, sociological aspects related to OHS are discussed, taking into account data of the European Union and United States, mainly. Then, the investments in OHS were considered in terms of information and automation technologies. Thus, a brief description of the concepts of industry 4.0, big data, internet of things (IOT), machine learning and robotics are included, always relating these topics with respect to OHS. Then, the same methodology of identifying the main drivers and players, together with the potential evolution within a time frame, is applied and carefully discussed throughout the text and figures.

The fifth and last chapter of the book reports the use of Technology Roadmap in the digital transformation related to occupational health. Again, this is a topic that may be regarded as social, rather than technological in its nature, but the authors were able to identify the main trends of the digital transformation related to health issues. The concept of occupation health was discussed but focusing on digital transformation. The analysis Technology Roadmap was created following the same methodology developed by the NEITEC team, connecting the players with the drivers that were previously defined within the time frame of interest.

It is worth mentioning that each chapter covering a case study ends with a conclusion remark, which highlights the main findings and conclusions of that particular study. Overall, the book will serve as a reference guide for those interested in knowing the concepts and potential applications of Technology Roadmap studies. The book is recommended for executives and professionals of companies and governmental agencies, but it will certainly be of great importance for students who want to pursue a career in this fast-growing research area.

Claudio J. A. Mota

Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)

PREFACE 3

The Technology Roadmap tool enables a better understanding of technological advances over time, identification of the most promising technologies, stakeholders, and opportunities for companies and public policy formulation. Professor Suzana Borschiver and researcher Aline Tavares present an important book that outlines the main stages in drawing up and interpreting a technological roadmap. In today’s world of information overload, it is crucial to have tools that can help organize and systematize knowledge to aid in decision-making.

This book features the country’s top experts on the Technological Roadmap, who have provided consultancy services to various companies, organizations, and high-impact journals. It is a valuable resource that fills a significant gap in knowledge.

Pietro Adamo Sampaio Mendes

Secretary of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME)

INTRODUCTION

This book is about the second edition of the first book Technology Roadmap: Strategic Planning to Align Market-Product-Technology, released in 2016 by Andrezza Lemos Rangel da Silva and myself.

In the first book the focus was the construction of the technological Roadmap and in this one we will apply the methodology developed by the Nucleus of Industrial and Technological Studies (NEITEC/UFRJ), to show practical case studies, developed both in the scope of scientific research and in projects with companies and research centers.

In the first chapter, the book reviews strategic planning, future studies and methodologies, such as Swot Analysis, Scenarios, Pestel, Delphi, and Bibliometrics. In the second chapter, a review of concepts, origin, formats and methodology is also carried out.

In the third chapter, the construction of the “Technology Routes for the Production of Biogas from Straw” is presented, where the anaerobic digestion process for the synthesis of biogas is discussed, and the main results, focusing on the use of straw as raw material.

In the fourth chapter, the case study refers to the work carried out in partnership with National Industry Observatory to SESI Innovation Center on OHS Management Systems with a focus on “Automation and Information Technologies Applied to Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Management”. The concepts of Industry 4.0 such as Big Data, Internet of Things, Machine Learning and Robotics are addressed, and their applications in the work environment so that it can bring healthier and safer conditions to the worker and physical, mental and social well-being.

Finally, the fifth and last chapter deals with these technologies with a specific focus on occupational health, under the theme “Digital Transformation in Occupational Health”. In partnership with SESI Viva+, an arm of the Social Service for Industry (SESI), the work addressed the use of telemedicine, wearable devices and apps, for example, to improve the management of information on workers’ health in Brazilian companies.

It is hoped that this book, the result of my 20 years of experience in the areas of Technological Prospecting, Strategic Planning, Knowledge Management and Business Models, will be another contribution to the understanding of this strategic planning tool that is so important for making safe decisions in relation to the future direction of technologies and markets to be followed.

Suzana Borschiver

Full profess or at the School of Chemistry – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)

1

Technology Roadmap – Case Studies and Opportunities

Marcello José Pio

Suzana Borschiver

1.1 Strategic planning, future studies and methodologies

Make time to think. The speed of change should not be an excuse for a lack of strategy.

(Michael Porter)

To manage is to forecast and plan, to organize, to command, to co-ordinate, and to control.

(Henry Fayol)

Strategic planning has been one of the most important management issues. One of the most relevant names in the sector, Henry Fayol, quotes that “managing means looking ahead”.The objective of strategic planning is to look to the future and anticipate needs and demands, offering efficient answers to face problems and control risks and uncertainties, and thus generate a direction considered adequate for the organization.Strategic planning can be considered a management tool that enables the establishment of the course to be followed by a company, aiming at achieving a level of optimization in its relationship with the environment.

This look to the future has been a constant exercise by organizations to prepare to surpass their competitors and, therefore, conquer space in the competitive environment.Since it is not possible to predict the future with 100% accuracy, reflections on threats and opportunities are supported and guided by varied techniques and studied with greater consistency and application specificity.

Decisions are based on the expectation of holding an event or situation. Thus, it can be said that to decide is to take a stand in relation to the future.Depending on the time available for decision making and the volume of information that can be obtained within that period, the individual will stand between the state of certainty, when his decision is unique and of a deterministic character; or uncertainty, when it will depend on a set of hypotheses of a probabilistic character.The future, besides being inevitable, is uncertain. However, it is possible to predict some future events because of past acts and decisions or subject to a regular calendar (Santos, 2004).

The literature presents two types of future models: extrapolative (forecasting) and exploratory (foresighting).The exploratory model is based on evaluating the evolution of a given quantity over a period, considering a certain degree of confidence/probability. In this model, future hypothesesare proposed based on these data.In the extrapolative model, projections are created from the extension of a past evolution.

The literature points outthose extrapolative techniques are nowadays understood as simpler in terms of conceptual understanding and in relation to their application in practical cases.In face of this, they have become widespread among professionals in different areas of knowledge. Despite their simplicity and dissemination, such models are not always effective as forecasting resources, as they sometimes need to be combined with other techniques and approaches.This is because in general, forecasting models require data that are based on the premise that the future will look like the past, which, in reality, does not always happen.In addition, it is known that, in most cases, databases, when available, are unreliable, incomplete or without periodicity of updating, with different measurement units and little data relevant to the study.However, extrapolation on past trends relies mostly on reliable historical data, which should cover a relatively long period, preferably longer than the projected period, and with uniform patterns of collection over time.Despite presenting limited applications, this approach brought historical contributions to the subject. However, in many cases, it should be replaced by alternatives that are more suitable.Reflections of this nature allowed a better adaptation of methodologies and tools to the objects of study, leading consequently, to the definition of new concepts. The exploratory alternative (forecasting) mentioned above shows greater adherence to the foresight approach, or foresight, discussed below.

According to Cuhls and Grupp (2001), foresight can be defined as a

Process that systematically seeks to examine the long-term future of science, technology, economy, and society, aiming at identifying areas of strategic research and emerging generic technologies that tend to generate the greatest economic and social benefits.

While narrowing the focus on the Long Term, this definition is broad across its sectors of application. Subjectively, it considers the decision-making process as a central aspect of foresighting.This same factor is explicitly presented in Marcial and Grumbach´s approach (2006), where foresighting is an ongoing process of thinking about the future thus identifying elements for better decision-making and taking into consideration the economic, social, environmental, scientific, and technological aspects.

As for the characteristics, Godet’s (1982) foresight studies involve understanding the phenomenon as a whole (nothing remains the same); variables (qualitative, not necessarily quantifiable, subjective, known or hidden); relationships (dynamic, with evolving structures); explanation (the future is the “raison d’être” of the present); future (multiple and uncertain); method (intentional analysis, with qualitative and stochastic models); and attitude towards the future (active and creative).As they constitute the focus of prospective exercises, definitions of technological prospecting are also presented, aiming to broaden the understanding of the subject. Technological prospecting is the term applied to studies that aim to anticipate and understand the potential, evolution, characteristics, and effects of technological changes, particularly its invention, innovation, adoption, and use.

For Kupfer and Tigre (2004), technology foresight is the systematic means of mapping future scientific and technological developments, capable of significantly influence an industry, economy, or society.

1.2 Technological Planning and Technology Foresight