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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
An essential, in-depth guide to mining investment analysis Written by a mining investment expert, The Mining Valuation Handbook: Mining and Energy Valuation for Investors and Management is a useful resource. It's designed to be utilized by executives, investors, and financial and mining analysts. The book guides those who need to assess the value and investment potential of mining opportunities. The fourth edition text has been fully updated in its coverage of a broad scope of topics, such as feasibility studies, commodity values, indicative capital and operating costs, valuation and pricing techniques, and exploration and expansion effects.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2012
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MINING AND ENERGY VALUATION FOR INVESTORS AND MANAGEMENT
Dr VICTOR RUDENNO
First published in 2012 by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd 42 McDougall St, Milton Qld 4064
Office also in Melbourne
First edition first published by John Wiley & Sons in 1998 Second edition first published by John Wiley & Sons in 2004 Third edition first published by John Wiley & Sons in 2009
Typeset in 11/13.8 ITC Berkeley Oldstyle Std Book
© Victor Rudenno 2012
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication data:
Author: Rudenno, Victor
Title: The mining valuation handbook : mining and energy valuation for investors and management / Victor Rudenno
ISBN: 9780730377078
Notes: Previous ed.: 2009.
Subjects: Mine valuation — Australia.
Mines and mineral resources — Valuation — Australia.
Dewey Number: 338.2029
All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example, a fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All inquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.
Cover design by Rob Cowpe
Cover image (open pit mine): © iStockphoto.com/Pgiam
Figure 6.2 photo (A Mobile Drilling Rig): © Steve Lovegrove/Shutterstock.com
Figures 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 4.1, 4.4, 4.5, 4.8, 4.9, 4.10, 4.11, 4.12, 4.13, 5.10, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.12, 11.1, 11.2, 16.2, 20.2, 20.5 Microsoft Excel charts reproduced with permission from Microsoft.
Printed in China by Printplus Limited
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Disclaimer
The material in this publication is of the nature of general comment only, and does not represent professional advice. It is not intended to provide specific guidance for particular circumstances and it should not be relied on as the basis for any decision to take action or not take action on any matter which it covers. Readers should obtain professional advice where appropriate, before making any such decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the author and publisher disclaim all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any person taking or not taking action based on the information in this publication.
The Mining Valuation Handbook 4th Edition: Mining And Energy Valuation For Investors And Management
Table of Contents
To my parents, who always encouraged and provided me with the opportunity to acquire the most valuable of all commodities: knowledge.
Acknowledgements
Once again I have been fortunate enough to have good friends and colleagues to help with the provision of ideas, information and proofing. For this edition my grateful thanks go to Bob Adamson, Jeremy Atkinson, Rod Elvish, Warren Kreyzig, Michael Potter, Keith Skipper and Paul Umgeher.
A number of people have helped with past editions, which have laid the foundations for this one. My thanks go to Andy Border, Howard Brady, Bob Cameron, Arron Collaran, Ann Diamant, Andrew Driscoll, Joel Forwood, Tim Gerrard, Tim Goldsmith, Phil Gray, Tim Knapton, Murray Kornweibel, Garry Lowder, Richard Kuo, Mick Lucas, Creagh O’Connor, Paul Pinnock, Peter Rose, Neil Seage, Trevor Sykes and Wayne Zekulich. A special thank you to Robert Champion de Crespigny for his kind words in the foreword to the first and second editions of this book.
And as always, to my wife Sue, I give my greatest thanks for her continued support and help in all my endeavours.
Introduction
Over the last 35 years, I have been fortunate enough to lecture to university students in mining engineering and geology, to industry practitioners at seminars and workshops, to students of the Securities Institute of Australia and Kaplan, to investors through the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and to fund managers around the world. I have often been asked if there is a text that covers the myriad related and interrelated financial issues in the resources industry. Although there are many good books that cover specific issues, some of which unfortunately are out of print, I was motivated to write the first edition in the form of a handbook in an attempt to bring everything into one easy-to-use reference work. In the second and third editions, as well as updating historical information, I expanded on some issues, added additional project examples and covered several aspects raised in reviews of the prior editions.
I have again tried to add new ideas and commentary, and where possible provided more up-to-date examples. However, although some examples may be a little old, I have kept them only because I have been unable to find examples that explain the point any more clearly. This updated edition once again goes further towards covering these issues, including more commentary on forecasting, real option theory and allocation of fundamental value. Hopefully the book will continue to act as a reference for those in the mining industry who are seeking information of a more financial nature, and for those in the finance industry who are looking for simple detail of the characteristics of the resources industry in a financial light. For the non-professional who is keen to invest in resource companies, this book will hopefully remove some of the mystique that often surrounds technical disciplines.
In attempting to cover a large number of issues, it is always difficult to decide upon the order of presentation. Often, to help explain an issue, it would be great to explain several subsidiary issues simultaneously. This is of course not possible, so please bear with the text and hopefully the worked examples will help make everything clear in the end. As far as possible each topic is self-contained so that those readers who have knowledge of a particular topic can move on to the next chapter.
Important issues have been highlighted with the heading ‘Tip’ so that they can be easily located; by important, I mean those issues that, in my experience, often play a key part in the equity market’s appreciation of the value of a listed equity. That is not to say that this book is specifically designed with listed resource companies in mind, but it is the major area of experience from which I speak, and hopefully will be a suitable guide for both the professional and non-professional investor, as well as for management of resource companies who wish to get the most from their investment or project.
On occasions in this book I will refer to ‘mining’ and ‘resources’ interchangeably and, unless otherwise indicated, these will include both hard and soft rock mining and the hydrocarbon industries. A detailed glossary is provided at the end of this book. I also hope to provide many of the worked examples on my website, www.revaluate.com.au, to try to make it easier to understand how the myriad numbers were calculated. In chapter 8 I have provided cost curves, which I will occasionally update on the website with additional project data and indexed to a more recent date.
Since writing the third edition only three years ago, we have continued to see an amazing rollercoaster of fortunes in the equity markets, in particular in resources and in commodity prices. After suffering the global financial crisis (GFC) just before the publication of the last edition, the commodity markets recovered strongly, especially with the emergence of China and to a lesser extent India as economic powerhouses. Now as I write this text, the European credit crisis has unfolded and, if one can believe the International Monetary Fund, another depression is possibly around the corner! Hopefully this will not eventuate and, as you read these words in the coming months and years, most of the financial problems might have been resolved and resource stocks will once more be on the rise.
Finally, as always, the views and opinions expressed in this book are mine and mine alone. If you would like to send me a note on any of the issues raised, please feel free to email me at <[email protected]>.
Dr Victor Rudenno Sydney January 2012
Chapter 1: The resources industry
The mining and processing of raw materials have played a critical part in the development of modern civilisation. Towards the end of the twentieth century there was a subtle, but important change through the development of increasingly diversified multinational mining companies while leaving grassroots exploration to smaller resource companies. Indeed, the level of exploration and, importantly, exploration success declined significantly in the late 1990s and the impact of low commodity prices restricting the availability of funds saw a significant reduction in new mining operations.
What no one foresaw was the significant growth among developing nations, particularly China and to a lesser extent India, as they raced to increase the quality of life for their people, generally reflected in increasing per capita consumption of metals and energy. Figure 1.1 (overleaf ) shows an index of primary base metal prices since January 2004. The price rose slowly, and then there was a dramatic 100 per cent plus rise between 2005 and 2007, often referred to as the Super Cycle. The arrival in 2008 of the global financial crisis (GFC) showed just how fragile commodity prices could be, as they are directly linked to world economic growth. With expectations of recession and reduced consumption, commodity prices also fell, as shown in the commodity price index. However, by March 2009 commodity markets were on the rise again and after a 65 per cent price fall they had made up two-thirds of the lost ground in a matter of 24 months. More particularly, bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal have shown amazing strength, fuelled primarily by economic growth in China. Commentators and mining companies remain bullish at the outlook for commodity prices over the next few years, although during the latter part of 2011 the European economic crisis resulted in concerns over economic growth and a further weakening in commodity prices.
Figure 1.1: index of primary base metal prices, March 2004–September 2011
Higher commodity prices have meant that many previously discovered resource projects have now become economically viable. The mining industry is very capital hungry as a result of the large development costs and the high level of mechanisation necessary to ensure greater productivity through economies of scale. The removal of available funding by debt or equity markets should significantly curtail, if not totally prevent, the development of many new projects or major expansions in the near term, particularly those with high operating costs per unit of output. Some of the larger and better projects may yet proceed, but most likely only by companies that have funding available from their own balance sheets. This delay in new sources of commodities may go some way to offset reduced demand, but it will take time.
What resource companies do
The primary aim of resource companies is to find, develop and extract mineral resources. The definition of a mineral resource is an economic occurrence of an element in nature. There are a large number of minerals and many occurrences, but the trick is to find a deposit that is economic to mine. For the mining of mineral deposits we talk about ore, which is a naturally occurring concentration of minerals, and waste or gangue rock in which the ore is found. For hydrocarbon deposits, we talk about reservoirs in which oil or gas has been trapped in the pores of the rock that make up the reservoir.
Steps that resource companies generally undertake in the development of a new resource are:
• Exploration. A little over US$12 billion was spent worldwide in 2010 to find exploitable nonferrous minerals (nearly half for gold) and US$440 billion for exploration and development of oil and natural gas. Various techniques are employed to locate deposits, which, more often than not, are located below the surface with little or no surface expression (see chapter 5 for more detail). Successful exploration can result in a dramatic increase in the value of a company and is therefore of great significance to the equity (stock) markets.
• Definition. Once a mineral discovery has been made it is important to define the size of the orebody in tonnes and the grade or quality — for example, the amount of gold as grams per tonne of ore. This will ultimately set the parameters by which the deposit will be valued and hence the value to the company and, if listed, the company’s share price.
• Feasibility studies. The economic viability of the resource project has to be established. Engineering and financial models of the project are constructed to determine, within a framework of commodity prices and exchange rates, the economic return that can be expected. If the return, generally by way of future cash flows, is sufficient to warrant the capital expenditure needed to develop the mine, then the project may go ahead.
• Development. If the feasibility study has justified the project, then access to the orebody is required either by open cut (open pit) or underground mining methods, or, in the case of oil and gas, through production wells. Infrastructure must be constructed to support the project — including transport, power and water facilities, and the processing plant. Often the remote location of a project will require the construction of a town or living quarters for the workforce.
• Extraction. The mineralised orebody or hydrocarbons must be removed from the surrounding (waste) rock. For open cut mines, where the orebody is close to the surface, large volumes of waste rock may have to be removed to expose the orebody. For underground mines, where the orebody is too deep to be exploited by open cut mining methods, a shaft or decline, or both, will be constructed to gain direct access to the orebody. For oil and gas fields a sufficient number of production wells will have to be drilled to adequately recover the hydrocarbons.
• Processing. Most minerals will require some initial on-site processing. For bulk commodities, such as coal, some upgrade may be needed to meet the quality requirements of the purchaser. For low-grade ores, concentration will be undertaken to reduce the amount of waste material within the ore, which would otherwise be transported to another location for further recovery of the economic element. An increasing number of mines are introducing technology that allows for the recovery of the economic element, such as copper, at the mine site itself.
• Refining. Concentrate sent from the mine site may undergo further processing, either by hydrometallurgical (liquid) or pyrometallurgical (heat) processes, or by a combination of both, to recover the saleable commodity. In the case of petroleum the oil will be refined to produce various products, such as diesel or petrol.
What makes resource companies different from industrials?
There are a number of significant differences between resource and industrial companies. These differences are unique to resource companies and require specific knowledge, hence the motivation for writing this book. That is not to say that industrial-based companies — such as those in the telecommunications industry, for example — do not have complex issues that require specialist knowledge that is often technical in nature. However, it seems easier for the public to relate to industrial companies, perhaps due to the familiarity they have with many of the products and issues that surround those types of industries. On the other hand, due to the isolation of mining projects, few members of the public have had the opportunity to visit mining sites and become familiar with the resources industry.
Volatility of share prices
Share price volatility for resource stocks has historically been greater than for industrials. Figure 1.2 shows the percentage monthly change in two Australian indices on the ASX — the S&P/ASX Industrials Index versus the S&P/ASX Materials Index, which contains the resource companies.1
Figure 1.2: S&P/ASX Industrials Index compared with S&P/ASX Materials Index, February 2007–December 2011
While the Materials Index has been more volatile than the Industrials over the last few years (based on ASX indices), Industrials appear to have overtaken Materials in volatility, although over the period shown in figure 1.2 (2007–2011) they have been quite similar. However, individual resource stocks can still show significantly greater price variation than Industrials.
The factors that influence the volatility are discussed later. The resources market can therefore provide a potentially higher return in the short term, but this is balanced by the higher risk — the resource stocks can fall more abruptly. For example, in figure 1.2 the largest one-month increase for the Materials Index was 13.7 per cent while the largest fall was 23.5 per cent.
Exploration
A unique feature of the mining industry is the need to explore in order to find and define an economic resource on which a mining project can be built. Industrial companies are not confronted with this difficulty. The success rate for exploration is also relatively low. For example, in the oil industry as a whole the success rate can be of the order of one in ten. A company therefore requires large amounts of risk capital (exploration dollars) long before there is an opportunity to develop an income-producing project.
Most of the risk capital is lost in the ground. For example, a study by Mackenzie and Bilodeau (1984) found that in the period from 1955 to 1978 a total of $1618 million (dollars of the day) had been spent on exploration (excluding oil and gas) and thousands of mineral occurrences discovered. However, only about 43 of these discoveries were considered to be economic, with even fewer ultimately being developed. This equated to an average finding cost of $38 million (in 1984 dollars) per deposit. Adjusted for inflation the current finding cost would be approximately $100 million. For 2011 the Australian annualised mineral exploration expenditure was approximately $4 billion, which suggests that some 40 economic discoveries could be made annually. However, this statistic obviously does not indicate the size or type of deposit or the likelihood that any would ultimately come to production.
Finite reserves
Any mineral resource has a finite volume, and therefore will have a finite life that will vary according to the production rate. This is a problem not usually confronted by industrial companies. Once they have a raw material supply (often provided by the resources industry) and a market for their product they are in theory able to operate for an indefinite length of time.
Following an exploration success, a mining company will undertake a drilling program to define the resource. As the number of holes drilled increases and additional information is obtained, the confidence level in the amount of ore (tonnage) or hydrocarbons (volume) available will also increase. Confidence will also grow in the quality or level of the economic element contained within the resource. The industry has a number of standards that define the operator’s confidence (discussed in more detail in chapter 6). Reserves that are economically recoverable are classified as proven (high confidence) and probable (medium confidence). An example of a proposed copper mine is shown in table 1.1.
Table 1.1: project ore reserves for a proposed copper mine
For this project the total reserve (proven plus probable) consists of 54 000 tonnes of copper metal dispersed within 5 million tonnes of rock (ore). There is additional ore that is classified as a measured resource — this has not been included within the reserve, as economic constraints have not been applied. The measured resource or some part of it may or may not become a reserve at a future date.
It is within these confidence levels of a finite reserve and resource (and those resources still to be converted to a reserve) that an economic decision will need to be made on whether to develop the project, knowing that the project will have a finite life.
Resource companies should always ensure that quoted reserves and resources are clearly defined, and investors should always check and ensure that they fully understand how the companies have compiled and quoted their figures.
Commodity price volatility
Resource stocks are exposed to greater external commodity price volatility than most industrial stocks. Most of the world’s major exporters of raw mineral commodities are price takers rather than price makers. In other words, they rely on international commodity prices — in a very competitive market — which in turn are very much dependent on world economic activity and overall levels of supply, demand and inventories. For example, even though Australia is a major producer of mineral sands, their price is still dependent on international economic activity. The primary use of rutile is in the production of white pigment (due to its high titanium content) for the paint industry. The major consumers of paint are the housing and automotive industries, the largest being in the United States (US). Therefore the price of rutile is dependent on housing starts and car sales in the US, which are obviously beyond the control of Australian producers.
In figure 1.3 the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the previous Metal Price Index have been plotted since 2004. Although the CPI is not the best indicator of industrial prices, it does show a fundamental trend of ever-increasing prices in an inflationary environment. On the other hand, the prices received by resource companies are more volatile, and after a strong upward trend until June 2007 there was a dramatic downturn, caused by the GFC, which placed pressure on producers to reduce costs, alter operating procedures and, for some, close operations. While much of the lost ground had been recovered by mid 2011, recent uncertainty has again weakened commodity prices, as previously discussed. However, in real terms over the period shown, base metal prices are up 34 per cent, which equates to an annual real increase of 3.8 per cent since 2004.
Figure 1.3: CPI and Metal Price Index, January 2004–October 2011
Because a large portion of sales are to overseas markets, and prices are predominantly quoted in US dollars, earnings for resource companies outside the US are also very much influenced by movements in their local exchange rate.
Capital intensity
The mining industry, by its very nature, is capital intensive. The factors that influence this high level of expenditure include:
• Exploration. As mentioned, considerable funds are needed to find and delineate mineral resources. Most of the $4 billion spent in Australia on mineral, oil and gas exploration each year does not result in new economic discoveries.
• Economies of scale. Given the relatively low value per unit of production due to low levels of value adding (raw commodities), it is necessary to move large tonnages cost effectively. The industry therefore often requires expensive and, at times, complex equipment. For example, the value per tonne of ore can range from a low of around US$15 to a high of US$750, with an average of around US$235, compared with an average price of US$325 per tonne of wheat and US$18 000 per tonne of wool.
• Isolation. Mining projects, including initial processing, are undertaken where the mineral reserves are found, often in remote locations. As a result, infrastructure (for example, roads, railways and townships) is developed in conjunction with the project, increasing the capital costs. An increasing trend in recent years to reduce this cost has been the provision of fly-in–fly-out facilities, where the workforce work on site, typically for 12-hour shifts for several weeks, before returning home for an extended break.
• Power and water. Critical requirements for all mining projects are power and water. Power in the form of fuel oil or diesel is required for the earthmoving fleets, while electrical power is required for the processing plant and electrically driven mine machinery such as longwall units in underground coalmines. Because of the isolation, a common mode of generating electrical power is by diesel electric generators. Obviously, if main grid electric power is available, it is preferred, as diesel-generated power is more expensive. The use of natural gas to generate electric power is increasing, given its lower operating cost, despite the higher initial capital cost. Mines are often located in arid areas and ensuring an adequate and reliable water supply may require considerable expenditure.
Figure 1.4 shows a typical distribution of capital costs for a base metal mine constructed in Australia. The distribution varies, depending on the location and type of mine, but it does highlight the additional capital cost for power and water (22 per cent), which is often not a consideration for industrial operations.
Figure 1.4: typical capital costs for a base metal mine in Australia
Environment
Protection of the environment is important for both industrial and resource companies. In Australia, for example, state and federal legislation has set increasingly high environmental standards. Within practical limitations, companies must ensure minimum impact on the environment. These measures increase capital and operating costs. Given the impact on the landscape, these costs can be very high for resource companies, as shown in table 1.2, although they only represent some 1 per cent of total current expenses for the mining industry.
Table 1.2: operating and capital environmental protection expenditure, 2000–01 ($ million)
An environmental impact statement (EIS) is required for the development of new resource projects. The EIS describes the project and its impact on all aspects of the environment in detail. Some of the issues that will be addressed are the project’s impact on water quality and use, noise, air quality and the landscape, and the disposal of waste.
Mineral processing can affect air and water quality, and also have a direct physical and visual impact on the land, caused by plant mine waste dumps and tailings dams. For an average mine the approximate levels of water consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions per tonne of ore milled are shown in table 1.3. Obviously, other types of emissions may also occur. The CO2 figure compares with a major iron ore open cut operation with minimal treatment and high economies of scale that produces some 3 kg of CO2 per tonne of ore and overburden mined. Concern over the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in the introduction of a carbon tax in Australia from July 2012. Under the scheme the cost per tonne of coal mined is estimated to increase by $3 for the introduction of a $23 per tonne of carbon tax, which will rise to $4.60 per tonne of coal for a carbon tax of $40 per tonne.
Table 1.3: environmental impact per tonne of ore milled
Sulphur dioxide emissions near residential areas can be of major concern, and additional equipment may be required to reduce these emissions.
Financial bonds are often required by governments to ensure remedial work is undertaken at the conclusion of the mining operation. The plant is removed and equipment and machinery are re-used at other sites. The waste dumps (overburden) will be contoured to resemble low hills and revegetated, so that they blend into the surrounding landscape as much as possible. An underground mine will generally be closed from the surface and present little, if any, impact on the surrounding environment. However, open cut mines are generally left open to perhaps fill with water and provide an artificial lake. It is not economically practical to refill the open cuts, although some portion of the pit may be filled with waste towards the end of the mining life if this doesn’t interfere with the mining operation, or if suitably situated they may be used for landfill. Strip mines, such as those in coal mining, use the shallow open cuts as a disposal site for waste from the next sequence of mining. Due to the bulking of the waste, once it is mined, small hill-like structures are produced.
Tailings dams, which contain the waste residue from the mine plant (water and finely ground low-grade ore), are compacted, covered with soil and revegetated.
Land rights
The rights of traditional owners have become an increasingly important and complex issue in a number of international jurisdictions. Although industrial-based companies may also be faced with these issues, they are not as exposed as mining companies, which are often involved in exploration on land not covered under freehold title. See appendix B for more information on Australian land rights.
1 An S&P/ASX index is a numerical value that is adjusted to reflect the net price change of all of the listed companies that make up that index. If the index rises by 1 per cent, this tells us that the total capitalisation of the quoted shares of the companies in the index rose by 1 per cent. Readers should note that a company may have on issue additional shares that for various reasons, such as vendor escrow, are not listed by an exchange such as the ASX and are therefore not included in the company’s market capitalisation, which can lead to erroneous calculations regarding market capitalisations — a major fault of S&P/ASX indices.
Chapter 2: A quick guide to financials
Valuation of listed securities and resource projects relies on the analysis of financial data. For those readers unfamiliar with the process it is important to provide a simple overview of the various parameters that make up the numbers. This should help make the detailed sections that follow more meaningful.
The principal aim of this type of analysis is to effectively forecast the future financial performance of the company, which most often relates to the future financial performance of the company’s resource project(s). Each project needs to be categorised into its major financial components and, as more advanced studies are undertaken, the level of detail will increase substantially. The major financial components are:
• capital costs
• revenue
• operating costs
• other costs
• depreciation
• taxation
• cash flow.
We will look at these individually.
Capital costs
The costs of constructing a mine or developing a hydrocarbon field and associated infrastructure can be far ranging. The mine’s capital costs will generally include the cost of developing access to the orebody — which, in the case of underground mines, includes such items as shafts — while for open cut mines it may include the removal of large volumes of waste material. Mining equipment to extract the ore will also be required; however, the use of contract mining should result in a reduction in capital costs associated with mining equipment. Most ores require some level of processing before sale. The processing can vary from simple concentrating to reduce the amount of waste material shipped, to more complex on-site processing, to the production of final saleable product.
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