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Bill Gates claims that Covid-19 vaccines have saved humanity. In the next pandemic, something that the writer and activist gives as a fact, the vaccination process must be shortened. Six months after an outbreak is discovered, the entire world population should be vaccinated. Bill Gates´ proposal is called GERM: Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization. It would cost close to a billion dollars a year and would involve a team made up of some three thousand specialists in different areas: medicine and infectious disease, genetics, biology, information technology, communication, logistics, public policy experts, and product development experts. According to Gates, the world must prepare, but is the new pandemic really an imminent danger?
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Bill Gates’ Forecasts
Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the name of Bill Gates has been on the front page. The former software and computing guru, a billionaire thanks to his company Microsoft, in recent years had turned to philanthropy: his main areas of interest are climate catastrophes and renewable energies, and also vaccines and epidemics. His name, his ideas and his actions are praised by some and detested by others. Where some see a genuine commitment to curbing the pandemic, others find business. What for many was the only possible salvation – vaccines – for others was a device to control, harm or even reduce the population.
The truth is that Gates, in the years before Covid-19, had spoken out about the imminent dangers of a new virus that would attack humanity and spread rapidly, and would plunge us into a pandemic. He had warned that we were not prepared and that we had to start doing it seriously. As he explains on his blog, “The world did not prioritize global health until it was too late, and the result has been catastrophic. Countries failed to prepare for pandemics, rich countries reduced funding for R&D, and most governments failed to strengthen their health system”1.
Starting in 2022, Bill Gates redoubles the bet: the world needs to be prepared to face a possible pandemic, and it must do so in advance, with resources and with global coordination. He states that if the necessary steps are followed, the Covid-19 pandemic could be the last pandemic to hit humanity. In his book How to prevent the next Pandemic? Gates outlines the steps needed to make that happen.
Will it really be possible to avoid a new pandemic? His specific proposal is called GERM: Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization. It would cost about 1 billion dollars a year (but it would allow us to save trillions of dollars in the event of possible pandemics). His analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic, the numbers he proposes and the “miraculous” role of vaccines, allow him to outline a scenario in which avoiding pandemics is possible. His detractors, however, point out many dark spots, point out distorted numbers and, especially, point out hidden intentions behind his plans and words.
GERM
Gates lists 3 things we must (and can) do right now to prevent pandemics. The first: have better tools. He gives the example of messenger RNA technology and how this could create a basis for the rapid development of new vaccines. This includes an investment in vaccines and diagnostics. The second: GERM, to monitor the possible outbreak of new diseases. Finally, strengthen health systems, especially in developing countries.
But what is GERM? It is a permanent work team named Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization. Currently, says Gates, there are some agencies dedicated to detecting outbreaks or improving the response to an epidemic, but these are efforts with few resources, which depend on voluntary work and whose actions do not translate into global actions and much less into policies. One of the existing organizations is GOARN (Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network).
GERM should have a budget of 1 billion dollars a year. It will be a team made up of some 3,000 specialists from different areas: medicine and infectious diseases, genetics, biology, information technology, communication, logistics, public policy experts and product development experts. Specialists from all over the world based in a few countries and working full time. This team will play a fundamental role in monitoring outbreaks and controlling them to prevent their spread.
But the activity of the GERM team will also go beyond outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics. On the one hand, they will work to eradicate other existing diseases, such as polio, malaria or measles. But they will also work to improve health systems, especially in the poorest countries. In short, says Gates, they will contribute to improving global health and improving the world. Another fundamental activity will be the organization of drills simulating outbreaks of new diseases. This will allow us to detect weaknesses, failures, etc., and then work to improve them.
The budget contemplates the payment of salaries, mobilization, equipment and other expenses. GERM will work together with the WHO, according to Gates “the only group that can give it global credibility”, and its rendering of accounts must be public.
Gates claims that it is possible to eradicate respiratory viruses, including the flu. Under his plan, an outbreak could be effectively controlled within the first 100 days, which is the key period before a pandemic breaks out. He proposes that we imagine the following scenario: