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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Trading stocks, commodities, and ETFs, made simple—for Canadians
Trading For Canadians For Dummies offers you a tried and trusted approach to enhance profits. This updated edition presents a proven system for analyzing stocks, trends, and indicators and setting a buy and sell range beforehand to decrease risk in any type of market. Even if you’ve never made a single trade before, you can use this hands-on guide to get you started. And if you’re an intermediate trader looking to take it to the next level, you’ll find stress-free approaches to position trading, technical analysis, and due diligence. Adapted for Canadian readers with Canada-specific examples, this Dummies guide discusses the Toronto Stock Exchange and brokerage options in Canada.
- Learn how to trade successfully in up markets, down markets, and during recession
- Earn profits by trading stocks, options, and EFTs
- Update yourself on current tax laws and regulations to reduce your liability and risk
- Discover strategies and methods that are proven to enhance results and take the guesswork out of trading
Trading For Canadians For Dummies is for investors at all levels who are looking for a clear guide to successfully trading stocks in any type of market.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024
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Trading For Canadians For Dummies®
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Introduction
About This Book
Foolish Assumptions
Icons Used in This Book
Beyond the Book
Where to Go from Here
Part 1: Getting Started with Trading
Chapter 1: The Ups and Downs of Trading Stocks
Distinguishing Trading from Investing
Seeing Why Traders Do What They Do
Successful Trading Characteristics
Tools of the Trade
Taking Time to Trade More Than Just Stocks
Going Long or Short
Managing Your Money
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
Getting a Grip on Technical Analysis
Putting Trading Strategy into Practice
Trading at Higher Risk
Remembering to Have Fun!
Chapter 2: Exploring Markets and Stock Exchanges
Introducing the Markets and Exchanges
Reviewing Stock Exchanges
Understanding Order Types
Chapter 3: Going for Broker: Discovering Brokerage Options
Defining Why You Need a Broker
Exploring Types of Brokers and Brokerage Services
Analyzing the Services a Broker Provides
Knowing the Types of Brokerage Accounts
Choosing the Right Broker
Getting to Know the Rules
Chapter 4: Putting Your Key Business Tool to Work: The Computer
Making the Most of Your Computer
Finding Price Charts
Digging Up Fundamental Data
Accessing Analyst Reports
Selecting a Trading Platform
Determining Computer Requirements
Accessing the Internet
Part 2: Reading the Fundamentals: Fundamental Analysis
Chapter 5: Fundamentals 101: Observing Market Behaviour
Recognizing the Basics of a Business Cycle
Employing a Sector Rotation Strategy
Understanding Economic Indicators
Using Data from Economic Indicators
Chapter 6: Digging into Fundamental Analysis
Checking Out the Income Statement
Looking at Cash Flow
Scouring the Balance Sheet
Figuring Your Ratios: Comparing One Company’s Stock to Another
Determining Stock Valuations
Chapter 7: Listening to Analyst Calls
Getting to Know Your Analysts
The Function of Analysts
Pointers for Listening to Analyst Calls
Locating Company Calls
Identifying Trends in the Stock-Analyst Community
Part 3: Reading the Charts: Technical Analysis
Chapter 8: Seeing Is Believing: An Introduction to Technical Analysis
Understanding the Methodology
Answering the Detractors
Executing Your Trading Plan
Using StockCharts.com
Chapter 9: Reading Bar Charts Is Easy (Really)
Creating a Price Chart
Identifying Simple Single-Day Patterns
Recognizing Trends and Trading Ranges
Searching for Transitions
Chapter 10: Following Trends to Boost Your Probability of Success
Identifying Trends
Supporting and Resisting Trends
Seeing Gaps
Waving Flags and Pennants
Withstanding Retracements
Dealing with Failed Signals
Chapter 11: Calculating Indicators and Oscillators
The Ins and Outs of Moving Averages
Understanding Buy and Sell Pressure through Stochastic Oscillators
Tracking Momentum with the MACD
Revealing Relative Strength
Part 4: Developing Strategies for When to Buy and Sell Stocks
Chapter 12: Money Management Techniques: Building a More Robust Portfolio
Achieving Your Trading Goals with Smart Money Management
Managing Your Portfolio
Protecting Your Principal
Understanding Your Risks
Chapter 13: Combining Fundamental and Technical Analyses for Optimum Strategy
Seeing the Big Picture
Selecting Your Trading Stock
Trading Strategies
Chapter 14: Minimizing Trading Risks Using Exchange-Traded Funds
What Is an ETF?
Does Family Matter?
Sector Rotation Strategies
Analyzing ETFs
Portfolio Construction
Chapter 15: Executing Your Trades
Entering and Exiting Your Trade
Selling Stocks Short
Avoiding Regulatory Pitfalls
The Tax Man Cometh
Chapter 16: Developing Your Own Powerful Trading System
Understanding Trading Systems
Selecting System-Development Tools
Developing and Testing Trading Systems
Keeping a Trading Journal
Evaluating Trading Systems for Hire
Part 5: Risk-Taker’s Paradise
Chapter 17: The Basics of Swing Trading
Selecting Stocks Carefully
Looking at Swing-Trading Strategies
Using Options for Swing Trading
Getting a Grip on Swing-Trading Risks
Tackling Taxes (of course)
Chapter 18: The Basics of Day Trading
What Day Trading Is All About
Understanding Account Restrictions
Strategies for Successful Day Trading
Recognizing That Risks Are High
Avoiding the Most Common Mistakes
Chapter 19: Doing It by Derivatives
Types of Derivatives: Futures and Options
Buying Options and Futures Contracts
Getting Out of Options
The Risks of Trading Options and Futures
Minimizing Risks
Chapter 20: Going Foreign (Forex)
Exploring the World of Forex
Understanding Money Jargon
Looking at How Money Markets Work
Taking Necessary Risks in the World Money Market
Getting Ready to Trade Money
Part 6: The Part of Tens
Chapter 21: More Than Ten Huge Trading Mistakes
Fishing for Bottoms
Timing the Top
Trading Against the Dominant Trend
Winging It
Taking Trading Personally
Falling in Love
Using After-Hours Market Orders
Chasing a Runaway Trend
Averaging Down
Ignoring Your Stops
Diversifying Badly
Enduring Large Losses
Chapter 22: Ten Trading Survival Techniques
Build Your Trading Tool Chest
Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analyses
Choose and Use Your Favourite Tools Wisely
Count on the Averages to Make Your Moves
Develop and Manage Your Trading System
Know Your Costs
Have an Exit Strategy
Watch for Signals, Don’t Anticipate Them
Buy on Strength, Sell on Weakness
Keep a Trading Journal and Review It Often
Index
About the Authors
Advertisement Page
Connect with Dummies
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 3
TABLE 3-1 Examples of Full-Service Broker Fees
TABLE 3-2 TFSA Dollar Limit and Cumulative Total per Year
Chapter 6
TABLE 6-1 Home Depot Gross Profits*
TABLE 6-2 Lowe’s Gross Profits*
TABLE 6-3 Comparing Gross Margin Ratios by Year
TABLE 6-4 Home Depot Interest Payments*
TABLE 6-5 Lowe’s Interest Payments*
TABLE 6-6 Comparing Interest Coverage Ratios
TABLE 6-7 Home Depot Profitability*
TABLE 6-8 Lowe’s Profitability*
TABLE 6-9 Comparing Profitability Margins
TABLE 6-10 Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities*
TABLE 6-11 Total Cash Flow from Financing Activities*
TABLE 6-12 Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities*
Chapter 7
TABLE 7-1 Common Stock Recommendations from Analysts
Chapter 11
TABLE 11-1 Simple Moving Average of HUM Closing Price
TABLE 11-2 Exponential Moving Average of HUM
Chapter 12
TABLE 12-1 Percentage Gain Required to Recover Loss
Chapter 19
TABLE 19-1 ABC Stock Sample Option Quotation (in Dollars)
Chapter 20
TABLE 20-1 Common Currency Symbols
List of Illustrations
Chapter 5
FIGURE 5-1: The basic business cycle.
FIGURE 5-2: The Sector Rotation Model.
FIGURE 5-3: S&P sector ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
Chapter 8
FIGURE 8-1: To create charts, you set numerous chart attributes, overlays, and ...
Chapter 9
FIGURE 9-1: Axes of a daily price chart.
FIGURE 9-2: A single price bar.
FIGURE 9-3: A daily chart shows price and volume.
FIGURE 9-4: A single bullish bar.
FIGURE 9-5: A single bearish bar.
FIGURE 9-6: A bullish reversal pattern.
FIGURE 9-7: A bearish reversal pattern.
FIGURE 9-8: Hubbell gets stuck in a trading range after an initial run up.
FIGURE 9-9: Chevron is in a distinct uptrend.
FIGURE 9-10: Intuit’s stock is shown here in a clear downtrend.
FIGURE 9-11: Genuine Parts Co. stock breaks out of its trading range.
FIGURE 9-12: Banner Corp. stock prices show a cup and handle pattern.
FIGURE 9-13: ShockWave Medical (SWAV) shows a well-defined double bottom.
Chapter 10
FIGURE 10-1: ConocoPhilipps stock reaches higher intermittent highs and higher ...
FIGURE 10-2: RDFN falls to lower intermittent highs and lower intermittent lows...
FIGURE 10-3: Drawing a trend line in an uptrend along the price lows.
FIGURE 10-4: A channel.
FIGURE 10-5: A breakout gap and common gaps.
FIGURE 10-6: Continuation gaps.
FIGURE 10-7: An island gap.
FIGURE 10-8: Flags and pennants.
FIGURE 10-9: A five-step retracement pattern.
Chapter 11
FIGURE 11-1: This chart shows a nine-day simple moving average for Humana.
FIGURE 11-2: This chart shows a nine-day exponential moving average for Humana....
FIGURE 11-3: A chart of SPY, an ETF that mirrors the S&P 500, with a 50-day SMA...
FIGURE 11-4: A chart of PBF Energy with the slow stochastic oscillator below th...
FIGURE 11-5: A daily chart of Vertex Pharmaceuticals with the MACD and an MACD ...
FIGURE 11-6: The chart of MDYG shows a bearish divergence between price and the...
FIGURE 11-7: A daily chart of Chevron using the Price-Performance indicator to ...
Chapter 12
FIGURE 12-1: A daily chart of XME, the Metals and Mining ETF.
FIGURE 12-2: A broken pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
FIGURE 12-3: A weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index, 2003–2009.
FIGURE 12-4: A weekly chart of the Financial Sector (XLF), 2005–2022.
Chapter 13
FIGURE 13-1: A 10-year snapshot of interest rates, including the 30-, 10-, and ...
FIGURE 13-2: A 10-year snapshot of industrial production.
FIGURE 13-3: Weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index reflects a bull market in 2020 a...
FIGURE 13-4: Weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index reflects a bear market in 2022.
Chapter 15
FIGURE 15-1: A quote screen for AT&T stock.
FIGURE 15-2: A weekly chart of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), 200...
FIGURE 15-3: A weekly chart of the ProShares Short S&P500 Fund (SH), 2007–2011....
Chapter 16
FIGURE 16-1: Spreadsheet analysis for Donchian channels.
Chapter 17
FIGURE 17-1: An example of an orderly pullback.
FIGURE 17-2: A chart of National Oilwell Varco (NOV) showing pullback trading e...
FIGURE 17-3: A chart of ConocoPhillips (COP), in a trend channel.
FIGURE 17-4: A chart of Genzyme General (GENZ) shows stock prices bounding with...
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Begin Reading
Index
About the Authors
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Trading For Canadians For Dummies®, 2nd Edition
Published by: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, www.wiley.com
Copyright © 2024 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Published simultaneously in Canada
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2023952211
ISBN 978-1-394-20797-8 (pbk); ISBN 978-1-394-20798-5 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-394-20799-2 (ebk)
Introduction
Trading used to be the purview of institutional and corporate entities that had direct access to closed securities trading systems. Technical advances levelled the playing field, making securities trading much more accessible to individuals. After Canada’s Bre-X Minerals scandal of 1997 and the general stock market crash of 2000, when many people lost large sums of money because professional advisers or mutual fund managers didn’t protect their portfolio principal, investors chose between two options — getting out of the market altogether and seeking safety, or finding out more about how to manage their own portfolios. Many who came back into the market ran from it again in late 2008, when the market saw its worst year since the Great Depression. In 2017, the stock market roared to a high of the S&P/TSX Composite Index topping 16,000. The race up the ladder continued until it reached a high of 22,000 in March 2022, but then the next correction began. The TSX closed at 19,462 on October 13, 2023 — still considerably higher than the 2017 top of 16,000.
The concept of buying and holding forever died after that 2000 stock crash; it saw some revival from 2004 to 2007, but then suffered another death in 2008. Despite Canada’s decent recovery in 2009, people today look for new ways to invest and trade. Although investors still practise careful portfolio balancing using a buy and hold strategy, they look much more critically at what they are holding and are more likely to change their holdings now than they were before the crash. Others have gotten out of the stock market completely.
Still others have moved on to the world of trading. Many kinds of traders ply their skills in the markets. The ones who like to take on the most risk and want to trade as a full-time business look to day trading. They seldom hold a position in a security overnight. Swing traders hold their positions a bit longer, sometimes for a few days or even a few weeks.
But we’re not focusing on the riskier types of trading in this book; instead, we focus on position trading, which involves executing trades in and out of positions and holding positions for a few weeks or months and maybe even a year or more, depending on trends that are evident in the economy, the marketplace, the commodity prices for Canada’s natural resources, and ultimately, individual stocks.
About This Book
Many people have misconceptions about trading and its risks. Most people think of the riskiest type of trading — day trading — when they hear the word trader. We’re definitely not trying to show you how to day trade. Instead, we want to introduce you to the world of position trading, which is much safer, less risky, and yet a great way to build a significant portfolio.
Don’t get the wrong idea: Trading in securities always carries risks. Never trade with money you can’t risk losing. That means aggressive trading with your children’s Registered Education Savings Plan isn’t a good idea. If you want to trade, set aside a portion of your savings that isn’t earmarked for any specific use and that you believe you can put at risk without ruining your lifestyle.
Obviously, we plan to show you ways to minimize risk, but we can’t promise that you won’t take a loss. Even the most experienced traders, the ones who put together the best trading systems, don’t have a crystal ball and periodically get hit by a market shock and accompanying loss. By using the basics of fundamental and technical analyses, we show you how to minimize your risk, how to recognize when the market is ripe for a trade, how to identify which specific sectors in the market are the right places to be, how to figure out which phases economic and market cycles are in, and how to make the best use of all that knowledge.
As you dip into and out of this book, feel free to skip the sidebars (shaded boxes). They contain interesting information but aren’t essential to understanding important points of trading.
Within this book, some web addresses may break across two lines of text. If you’re reading this book in print and want to visit one of these web pages, simply key in the web address exactly as it’s noted in the text, pretending as though the line break doesn’t exist. If you’re reading this as an e-book, you’ve got it easy — just click the web address to be taken directly to the web page.
Foolish Assumptions
We’ve made a few assumptions about your basic knowledge and stock-trading abilities. We assume you’re not completely new to the world of investing in stocks and that you’re familiar with the stock market and its basic language. We review many key terms and phrases as we explore the basics of trading, if everything you read sounds totally new to you, you probably need to read a basic book on investing in stocks before trying to move on to the more technical world of trading.
We also assume you know how to operate a computer and use the Internet. If you don’t have high-speed Internet access now, be sure you do have it before trying to trade. Many of the resources we recommend in this book are available online, but you need high-speed access to be able to work with these valuable tools.
Icons Used in This Book
For Dummies books use little pictures, called icons, to flag certain chunks of text. Here’s what they actually mean:
Watch for these little flags to get ideas on how to improve your trading skills or where to find other useful resources.
If something is particularly important for you to remember, we mark it with this icon.
The trading world is wrought with dangers and perils. A minor mistake can cost you a bunch of money, so we use this icon to point out particularly perilous areas.
When you see this icon, know that we’re discussing higher-end, more technical material for the experienced trader.
Beyond the Book
In addition to the material in the print book or e-book you’re reading right now, this product also comes with some access-anywhere goodies on the web. When you just want a quick reminder of trading basics, check out the free Cheat Sheet at www.dummies.com; just search for “Trading For Canadians for Dummies Cheat Sheet.” There you find explanations on how to identify the beginning of bull and bear markets, how to trade in those types of markets, and how to develop your own trading system. We also recommend websites that offer trading information, analysis, and advice.
Where to Go from Here
You’re ready to enter the exciting world of trading. You can start anywhere in the book; each chapter is self-contained. But if you’re totally new to trading, starting with Chapter 1 is the best way to understand the basics. If you already know the basics, understand everything about the various markets and exchanges that you care to know, have a broker picked out, and have all the tools you need, you may want to start with fundamental analysis in Part 2. Remember, though, to have fun and enjoy your trip through the exciting world of trading!
Part 1
Getting Started with Trading
IN THIS PART …
Know what you’re getting into before you begin trading stocks by reviewing the ups and downs you may encounter.
Get familiar with the various stock markets and the different types of market orders.
Pick an appropriate trading partner by finding a broker who’s right for your trading style.
Figure out the minimum hardware and software requirements and check out recommended websites and programs.
Chapter 1
The Ups and Downs of Trading Stocks
IN THIS CHAPTER
Making sense of trading
Exploring trading types
Gathering your trading tools
Discovering keys to success
Making lots of money is the obvious goal of most people who decide to enter the world of trading. How successful you become as a trader depends on how well you use the tools, gather the needed information, and interpret the data you have. You need to develop the discipline to apply all that you know about trading toward developing a winning trading strategy.
Discovering how to avoid getting caught up in the emotional aspects of trading — the highs of a win and the lows of a loss — is key to developing a profitable trading style. Trading is a business and needs to be approached with the same logic you’d apply to any other business decision. Setting goals, researching your options, planning and implementing your strategies, and assessing your success are just as important for trading as they are for any other business venture.
In this book, we help you explore the world of trading and the fundamentals of trading activity. In this chapter, we give you an overview of trading and an introduction to the tools you need, the research skills you must use, and the basics of developing all this information into a successful trading strategy.
Distinguishing Trading from Investing
Trading is not the same thing as investing. Investors buy stocks and hold them for a long time through successive waves of markets that go up and go down. Long-term investors do not change their horses very often. Traders, on the other hand, hold stocks for as little as a few minutes or as long as several months, and sometimes possibly even a year or more. The specific amount of time depends on the type of trader you want to become. Online trading has become increasingly popular in recent years as it is much faster and more efficient than traditional methods.
Investors want to carefully balance an investment portfolio among growth stocks, value stocks, domestic stocks, and foreign stocks, along with long-, short-, and intermediate-term bonds. A well-balanced Canadian portfolio generally offers investors a steady return of between 5 percent and 8 percent, depending on the type of investments and amount of risk they are willing to take.
For investors, an aggressive portfolio with a mix of 80 percent invested in stocks and 20 percent in bonds, if well balanced, can average as high as a 12 percent annual return for investors during a 20-year period; however, in some years, the portfolio will be down, and in others, it will go through periods of high growth. The opposite, a conservative portfolio with 20 percent invested in stocks and 80 percent in bonds, is likely to provide a yield on the lower end of the spectrum, closer to 5 percent. The volatility and risk associated with the latter portfolio, however, would be considerably less. Investors who have ten or more years before they need to use their investment money tend to put together more aggressive portfolios. Those who need to live off the money tend to put together less aggressive portfolios that give them regular cash flows, which is what you get from a portfolio invested mostly in bonds.
As a trader, you look for the best position for your money and then set a goal of exceeding what an investor can otherwise expect from an aggressive portfolio. During certain times within the market cycle, your best option may be to sit on the sidelines and not even be active in the market. In this book, we show you how to read the signals to decide when you need to be in the market, and how to find the best sectors in which to play the market and the best stocks within those sectors.
Seeing Why Traders Do What They Do
Improving their potential profit from stock transactions is obviously the key reason why most people decide to trade. People who want to grow their portfolios rather than merely maintain them hope their investing strategy will outperform average market returns. Regardless of whether traders invest through mutual funds or stocks, they hope the portfolio of securities they select gives them superior returns — and they’re willing to work at it.
People who decide to trade make a conscious decision to take a more active role in increasing their profit potential. Rather than just riding the market up and down, they search for opportunities to find the best times and places to be in the market based on economic conditions and market cycles.
Traders who successfully watched the technical signals before the stock crash of 2008 either shorted stocks or moved into cash positions before stocks tumbled and then carefully jumped back in as they saw opportunities for profits. Some position traders simply stayed on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to jump back in. Even though they were waiting, they also carefully researched their opportunities, selected stocks for their watch lists, and then let technical signals from the charts they kept tell them when to get in or out of a position.
Successful Trading Characteristics
To succeed at trading, you must be disciplined and, more than likely, work against your natural tendencies, fighting the urge to prove yourself right and accepting the fact that you’re going to make mistakes. As a trader, you must develop separate strategies for when you want to make a trade to enter a position and for when you want to make a trade and exit that position, all the while not allowing emotional considerations to affect the decisions you make on the basis of the successful trading strategy you designed.
You want to manage your money, but in doing so you don’t have to prove whether your particular buying or selling decision was right or wrong. Setting up stop-loss points for every position you establish and adhering to them is the right course of action, even though you may later have to admit that you were wrong. Your portfolio will survive, and you can always reenter a position whenever trends indicate the time is right again.
You need to make stock trends your guide, ignoring any emotional ties that you have to any stocks. Although you may indeed miss the lowest entry price or the highest exit price, you nevertheless will be able to sleep at night, knowing that your money is safe and your trading business is alive and well.
Traders find out how to ride a trend and when to get off the train before it jumps the tracks and heads toward monetary disaster. Enjoy the ride but know which stop you’re getting off at so you don’t turn profits into losses.
Tools of the Trade
The first step you need to take in becoming a trader is gathering all the right tools so that you can open and operate your business successfully. Your computer needs to meet the hardware requirements and other computer specifics we describe in Chapter 4, including processor speed, memory storage, and screen size. You may even want more than one screen, depending on your trading style. High-speed Internet access is a must; without it, you may as well never open up shop.
We also introduce you to the various types of software in Chapter 4, showing you what can help your trading business ride the wave to success. We evaluate traders’ charting favourites, such as StockCharts and TradeStation, along with Internet-based charting and data-feed services. We also talk about the various trading platforms available and how to work with brokers.
After you have all the hardware and software in place, you need to hone your analytical skills. Many traders advocate using only technical analysis, but we show you how using both technical and fundamental analyses can help you excel as a trader. (Part 2 covers fundamental analysis, and Part 3 discusses technical analysis.)
Taking Time to Trade More Than Just Stocks
The ways traders trade are varied. Some are position traders, while others are swing traders and day traders. Although many of the tools they use are the same or similar, each variety of trader works within differing time frames to reach goals specific to the type of trades they’re making.
Position trading
Position traders use technical analysis to find the most promising stock trends and enter and exit positions in the market based on those trends. They can hold positions for just a few days, a few months, or possibly as long as a year or more. Position trading is the type of trading that we discuss the most in this book. After introducing you to the stock markets, the types of brokers and market makers with whom you deal with, and the tools you need, we discuss the basics of fundamental analysis and technical analysis to help you become a better position trader.
WEATHERING A CHANGING MARKET
Global stress from the COVID recession, the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine followed by a surge in inflation in 2021, as well as the global supply-chain crisis, threw the market into bear market territory after the longest bull market in history. Investors still need to determine the long-term effects of the pandemic on the global economy.
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite index peaked at 22,005.94 on March 25, 2022, but since that time has been on a downward trend. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates because of an inflation surge to help cool the markets. Markets do favour low interest rate environments because they encourage growth and encourage companies to spend. An economic slowdown is on the horizon. China imposed a zero-COVID strategy in addition to a regulatory crackdown, leading to a decline in Chinese prices. Emerging markets were hit by the worst sell-off in decades. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF had returns of –20 percent in 2022.
We are definitely in a time of great global uncertainty, and you must take careful steps to determine your strategies for entering and exiting the current volatile market.
Short-term swing trading
Swing traders work within much shorter time frames than position traders, rarely holding stocks for more than a few days and looking for sharp moves that technical analysis uncovers. Even though we don’t show you the specifics of how to become a swing trader, we nevertheless discuss the basics of swing trading and its strategies in Chapter 17. You can also read about the basics of technical analysis and money management strategies, both of which are useful topics to check out if you plan to become a swing trader. However, you definitely need to seek additional training before deciding to pursue this style of trading — reading Swing Trading For Dummies by Omar Bassal, CFA (Wiley) would be a good start.
Day trading
Day traders never leave their money in stocks overnight. They always cash out. They can trade into and out of a stock position in a matter of hours, minutes, or even seconds. Many outsiders watch day traders in action and describe it as more like playing a video game than trading stocks. We discuss this high-risk type of trading in Chapter 18, but we won’t be showing you the specifics of how to do it. If day trading is your goal, this book takes you only part of the way there. You discover the basics of technical analysis, but you need to seek out additional training before engaging in this risky trading style — check out Day Trading For Dummies by Ann C. Logue, MBA (Wiley).
Going Long or Short
Before you start trading, you absolutely have to know what stocks you want to buy and hold for a while — named going long, or holding a long stock position. You likewise have to know at what point holding that stock is no longer worthwhile. Similarly, you need to know at what price you want to enter or trade into a position and at what price you want to exit or trade out of a position. You may be surprised to find out that you can even profit by selling a stock without ever owning it, in a process named shorting. We discuss these trading strategies in Chapter 15.
You can even make money buying and selling options on stocks to simulate long or short stock positions. Buying an option known as a call enables you to simulate a long stock position, in much the same way that buying an option known as a put enables you to simulate a short stock position. You make money on a call when the option-related stock rises in price, and you make money on a put when the option-related stock falls in price.
When placing orders for puts and calls, you’re never guaranteed to make money, even when you’re right about the direction a stock will take. The values of options are affected by how volatile stock prices are in relationship to the overall direction (up or down) in which they’re headed. We discuss options and how they work in greater detail in Chapter 19.
Managing Your Money
Managing your trades so that you don’t lose a bunch of money is critical. Although we can’t guarantee that you’ll never lose money, we can provide you with useful strategies for minimizing your losses and getting out before your stock portfolio takes a huge hit. The key is knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em, and we cover that in great detail in Chapter 12.
One point we can’t emphasize enough is that you must think of your trading as a business and the stocks you hold as its inventory. You can’t allow yourself to fall in love and thereby hang on to a stock out of loyalty. You can find it especially hard to admit you’ve made a mistake; nevertheless, you have to bite the bullet and exit the position before you take a huge hit. You discover that housecleaning and developing successful strategies for keeping your inventory current are important parts of managing a trading portfolio.
Setting a target price for exiting a position before ever trading into it is the best way to protect your business from major losses. Stick with those predetermined exit prices and you can avoid a major pitfall that many traders face — holding a position too long and losing everything. You obviously don’t want to turn a profit into a loss, so as your position in a stock produces a profit, you can periodically raise your target exit price while continuing to hold the position to ensure you keep most of that profit.
Understanding your risks — market risks, investment risks, and trading risks — helps you to make better trading decisions. We review the different kinds of risks as they relate to specific situations at several points throughout the book.
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
You’ve probably heard the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Well that’s true, and we show you how understanding the basics of the business cycle can help you improve your trading successes. In Chapter 5, you find out how to identify periods of economic growth and recession and how these differing periods impact bull and bear stock markets. We also explore sector rotation and how to use it to pick the right sectors for your trading activities.
You can also discover plenty of information about how money supply, inflation rates, deflation, unemployment, and consumer confidence impact the mood of the market and stock prices and how the economy can be driven by how confidently (or not) political and monetary leaders speak out about it. We discuss the roles of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the American Federal Reserve (Fed) and how when the governor of the BoC or the chairman of the Fed speaks, the markets listen.
Essentially, fundamental analysis looks at company financial performance, as well as the performance of the economy, to analyze the future profit potential of a stock or other equity purchase. Understanding how the economy works isn’t the only fundamental analysis tool that’s important to you. You also need to read financial statements to understand the financial status of the companies you want to buy. We delve into financial statements in Chapter 6.
A company’s income statements, on the other hand, give you a look at the results for the most recent period and provide a basis for comparison with prior years and periods. You can use these statements to look at whether revenues are growing, and if they are, by what percentage. You also can see how much profit the company is keeping from the revenue it generates. The cash flow statement shows you how efficiently a company is using its cash and whether it’s having problems meeting its current obligations. The balance sheet gives you a snapshot of a company’s assets and liabilities and shareholders’ equity.
You can use this information to develop your own estimate of a company’s growth and profit potential. In Chapter 6, we show you how to do a few basic ratio calculations that you can use to compare similar stocks and then choose the one with the best potential.
Analysts use this information to project a company’s financial growth and profits. You never should depend entirely on what analysts say, but you should always do your own research and collect the opinions of numerous analysts. One of the best ways to find out what analysts are saying and what aspects of the financial statements may raise a red flag is by looking at the analyst call. In Chapter 7, we explain how you can listen in on some of these calls and understand the unique language used in them to make better choices when selecting stocks. We also discuss the pros and cons of using analyst reports.
Getting a Grip on Technical Analysis
You use fundamental analysis to determine what part of the business cycle the economy is in and what industries offer the best growth potential. Then you use that information to select the best target companies and identify prices at which you’d want to buy their stocks.
After choosing your targets, you then use technical analysis to follow trends in the prices of the target stocks, so that you can find the right time to get in and ultimately to get out of a stock position. These targets become part of your stock-watch list. After you establish that list, you then use the tools of technical analysis to make your trades.
In Chapter 8, we introduce you to the basics of technical analysis, how it works, and how it needs to be used. Although some people think of technical analysis as no more than fortune-telling, others believe it yields significant information that can help you make successful trades. We obviously believe that technical analysis provides you with extensive tools for your trading success, and we show you how to use those tools to be profitable.
Your first step in technical analysis is finding out how to create a chart. We focus on the most popular type — bar charting. In Chapter 9, you discover the art of deciphering simple visual stock patterns and how to distinguish between trends and trading ranges, all so you’re able to spot when a stock moves from a trading range into either an upward or downward trend and know when you need to act.
In Chapter 10, we show you how to use your newfound skill of identifying trends to locate areas of support and resistance within a trend that ultimately help you find the right times to make your move. You find out how to read the patterns in the charts to identify trading signals and what to do when you acted on a failed trading signal.
Chapter 11 fills you in on moving averages and how to use them to identify trends. You also find out about oscillators and other indicators that traders use for recognizing trading signals. As a newbie trader, you probably find that your greatest risk is paralysis by analysis — you may find you’re having so much fun reading the charts or are just so confused about which chart has the right signal that you feel paralyzed by the variety of choices. We show you how to create and use a tiny subset of tools available in today’s charting software packages to simplify your life and make your choices easier. You likewise discover how to use such odd-sounding but critical tools as a moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator or a stochastic oscillator, and we help you take advantage of the powerful concept of relative strength.
Putting Trading Strategy into Practice
After you get used to using the tools, it’s time to put your new skills into practice making money. In Chapter 13, we show you how to put together your newfound affinities for fundamental analysis and technical analysis to develop and build your trading strategy. Using fundamental analysis, you can
Determine which part of the economic cycle is driving the market.
Determine which sector makes the most sense for stock trading.
Figure out which sectors are in the best positions to go up.
Find out which stocks are leading in the ascending sectors.
Evaluate where the BoC and the Fed stand on the economy and which of their potential moves can impact the strength of the market.
Evaluate and hopefully anticipate potential shocks to the market. Although doing so may seem like gazing into a crystal ball, you really can pick up some signs by checking out the key economic indicators. We show you what they are.
After you complete your fundamental analysis, we show you how to use your new technical analysis skills successfully to
Trade within the overall technical conditions.
Confirm which economic cycle a market is in by using index charts.
Determine whether an ascending sector is stuck in a range or ready to enter a new upward trend.
Determine whether leading stocks are stuck in ranges or ready to break out in upward trends.
Finally, we show you how to use your newfound skills to manage risk, set up a stop-loss position, and choose your time frame for trading.
In Chapter 14, we introduce you to techniques for using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to ride the trends rather than taking the risk of finding just the right company in each sector. Sector ETFs have become a major trading tool for position traders who want to take advantage of sector rotation, which we talk about in Chapter 5.
After honing your skills, you’re ready to start trading. So in Chapter 15, we focus on the actual mechanics of trading by
Discussing how to enter or trade into a position
Explaining bid and ask prices
Discussing the risks of market orders
Explaining how to use limit and stop orders
We also explore how to exit or trade out of a position and still stay unattached emotionally, when to take your profits, and how to minimize your losses, in addition to discussing potential tax hits and how to minimize them.
After you know how to research the fundamentals, effectively use the technical tools, and mechanically carry out a trade, the next step is developing and managing your own trading system, which is discussed in Chapter 16. We explore the basic steps to developing the system, which include
Design and keep a trading log.
Identify reliable trading patterns.
Develop an exit strategy.
Determine whether you use discretionary trading methods or mechanical trading. We explore the pros and cons of each.
Decide whether to develop your own trading system or buy one of the ones available off the shelf.
Test your trading systems and understand their limitations before making a major financial commitment to your new system.
We also discuss assessing your results and fixing any problems.
After you designed, built, and tested your system, you’re ready to jump in with both feet. The key to getting started: Make sure you begin with a small sum of money, examining your system and then increasing your trading activity as you gain experience and develop confidence with the system that you develop.
Trading at Higher Risk
Some traders decide they want to take on a greater level of risk by practising methods of swing trading or day trading or by delving into the areas of trading derivatives or foreign currency. Although all these alternatives are valid trading options, we steer clear of explaining even the basics of how to use these high-risk trading alternatives. Instead, in Part 5 (Chapter 17 through 20) we provide you with a general understanding of the ways these trading alternatives work and the risks unique to each of them.
If you decide, however, that you want to take on these additional risks, don’t depend on the information in this book to get started. Use the general information we offer here to determine what additional training you need to feel confident before moving into these trading arenas.
Remembering to Have Fun!
Although you are without question considering the work of a trader for the money you can make, you need to enjoy the game of trading. If you find you’re having trouble sleeping at night because of the risks you’re taking, then trading may not be worth all the heartache. You may need to put off your decision to enter the world of trading until you’re more comfortable with the risks or until you’ve designed a system that better accommodates your risk tolerance.
You may find that you need to take a slower approach by putting less money into your trades. You don’t need to make huge profits with your early trades. Just trading into and out of a position without losing any money may be a good goal for you when you’re just starting out. If you notice your position turning toward the losing side, knowing you can trade your way out of it before you take a big loss may help you build greater confidence in your abilities.
Making a losing trade doesn’t mean that you’re a loser. Even the most experienced traders must at times face losses. The key to successful trading is knowing when to get out before your portfolio takes a serious hit. On the other side of that coin, you also need to know how to get out when you’re in a winning or profitable position. When you’re trying to ride a trend all the way to the top, it sometimes starts bottoming out so fast that you lose some or possibly even all your profits, causing you to end up in a losing position.
Trading is a skill that takes a long time to develop and is perfected only after you make mistakes and celebrate successes. Enjoy the rollercoaster ride!
Chapter 2
Exploring Markets and Stock Exchanges
IN THIS CHAPTER
Brushing up on the markets
Diving into the exchanges
Reviewing order basics
Billions of shares of stock trade on exchanges in North America and around the world every day, and each trader is looking to get a small piece of the action relative to institutional investors, such as pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies. Before moving into the specifics of how to trade, we first want to introduce you not only to the world of stock trading, but also to trading in other key markets — futures, options, and bonds. In this chapter, we also explain differences and similarities among key stock exchanges and how those factors impact your trading options. After providing you with an overview of the markets, we delve into the different types of orders you can place with each of the key exchanges.
Introducing the Markets and Exchanges
You may think the foundation of the Canadian economy resides at the Royal Canadian Mint in Winnipeg, where the country manufactures billions of loonies and toonies, or that the foundation of the United States economy resides inside Fort Knox, the largest of three reserves with 147.3 million ounces of gold, according to U.S. Mint website. Nope. The continent’s true economic centres are Bay Street and Wall Street, where billions of dollars change hands each and every day, thousands of stocks are traded, and millions of people’s lives are affected.
Stocks are not the only commodities sold in the financial markets. Every day, futures, options, bonds, and cryptocurrencies also are traded. Although we focus on stock exchanges in this chapter, we first need to briefly explain each type of market.
Stock markets
Individual and institutional investors buy and sell stocks of public companies on stock exchanges. Companies that are not public are owned by their founders or families, and they can be quite large, such as Jimmy Pattison Industries, A&W Food Services, and Custom House Global Foreign Exchange in Canada. According to Forbes magazine, the top privately held corporations in the U.S. are Cargill, Koch Industries, Publix Super Markets, and Mars. Many of the large private U.S. corporations that are not traded publicly do have provisions for employee ownership of stock and must report earnings to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), so they straddle the line of public versus private corporations.
When someone owns stock, they have a share of ownership in the company that issued the stock. Few shareholders own large enough stakes in a company to play a major decision-making role. The majority of shareholders purchase stocks in hopes that the stocks will rise in price and be sold at a profit at some time in the future. In addition, some investors buy stocks that provide a dividend. Traders rarely hold the stock long enough for dividends to be a primary decision factor in whether to buy a stock.
In this chapter, we focus on the three top stock exchanges in North America:
The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
NASDAQ (the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system)
Later in this chapter, we also introduce you to the evolving world of Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) on which you can trade stocks directly, thus bypassing brokers.
Futures markets
Futures trading actually started in Japan in the 18th century to trade rice and silk. This trading instrument was first used in North America in the 1850s for trading grains and other agricultural entities. Basically, futures trading means establishing a financial contract in which you try to predict the future value of a commodity that must be delivered at a specific time in the future. (Yup, a working crystal ball would be very useful here.) This type of trading is done on a commodities exchange. The largest such exchange in North America today is the CME Group. Commodities include any product that can be bought and sold. Oil, cotton, and minerals are just a few of the products sold on a commodities exchange.
Futures contracts must have a seller (usually the person producing the commodity — a farmer or oil refinery, for example) and a buyer (usually a company that actually uses the commodity). You also can speculate on either side of the contract, basically meaning:
When you buy a futures contract, you’re agreeing to buy a commodity that is not yet ready for sale or hasn’t yet been produced at a set price at a specific time in the future.
When you sell a futures contract, you’re agreeing to provide a commodity that is not yet ready for sale or hasn’t yet been produced at a set price at a specific time in the future.
The futures contract states the price at which you agree to pay for or sell a certain amount of this future product after it’s delivered at a specific future date. Although most futures contracts are based on a physical commodity, the highest-volume futures contracts are based on the future value of stock indexes and other financially related futures.
Unless you’re a commercial consumer who plans to use the commodity, you won’t actually take delivery of or provide the commodity for which you’re trading a futures contract. You’ll more than likely sell the futures contract you bought before you actually have to accept the commodity from a commercial customer. Futures contracts are used as financial instruments by producers, consumers, and speculators. We cover those players and futures contracts in much greater depth in Chapter 19.
Bond markets
Bonds are actually loan instruments. Companies and governments sell bonds to borrow cash. If you buy a bond, you’re essentially holding a company’s debt or the debt of a government entity. The company or government entity that sells the bond agrees to pay you a certain amount of interest for a specific period of time in exchange for the use of your money. The big difference between stocks and bonds is that bonds are debt obligations (money owed) and stocks are equity (value of shares). Shareholders actually own a share of the corporation. Bondholders lend money to the company with no right of ownership. Bonds, however, are considered safer, because if a company files bankruptcy, bondholders are paid before shareholders. Bonds are a safety net and not actually a part of the trading world for individual position traders, swing traders, and day traders. While a greater dollar volume of bonds is traded each day, the primary traders for this venue are large institutional traders. Many individuals will use short-term bonds and treasury bills as a safe place to park their cash while waiting to enter a trading position. We want to mention them here but don’t discuss them further in this book.
Options markets
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, either to buy or to sell the underlying asset upon which the option is based at a specified price on or before a specified date. Sometime before the option period expires, a purchaser of an option must decide whether to exercise the option and buy (or sell) the asset (most commonly stocks) at the target price. Options also are called derivatives.
