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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Keep your head in the game! Make smarter, confident trades in global markets Trading is 80% psychology and 20% methodology. Trading Psychology For Dummies helps you develop the mindset you need to respond correctly in any market condition. Make more money on your trades as you develop mental strength, act confidently, and avoid the typical mistakes traders make when they don't understand their own minds. This book is for traders with any portfolio size and any risk tolerance. With the clear and easy approach that has made Dummies investing books so wildly popular, you can take your trading skills to the next level. When you stop underestimating how much your psychology governs your returns, you'll discover ways to tweak your own thought process for better trading results. * Learn how human psychology influences decision making in financial markets and other areas of life * Discover advice and techniques that you can try right away to make more rational trades * Examine how institutional investors account for market psychology when they predict price movements * Earn better returns with the perspective of veteran traders who apply psychology-based techniques daily Trading Psychology For Dummies gives an edge to novice and experienced traders alike. Gain confidence and maintain a flexible and open mind when trading.
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Seitenzahl: 455
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022
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Trading Psychology For Dummies®
Published by: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, www.wiley.com
Copyright © 2022 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Published simultaneously in Canada
The German original published 2021 under the Title Trading Psychologie fuer Dummies
Copyright © 2021 by Wiley-VCH GmbH, Germany.
All rights reserved
This translation published under license with the original publisher Wiley-VCH GmbH. Germany.
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2022941293
ISBN 978-1-119-87958-9; ISBN 978-1-119-87959-6 (ePDF); ISBN 978-1-119-87960-2 (epub)
Trading Psychology For Dummies®
To view this book's Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and search for “Trading Psychology For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box.
Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Introduction
About This Book
Conventions Used in This Book
What You Don’t Need to Read
Foolish Assumptions
How This book Is Organized
Icons Used in This Book
Beyond the Book
What’s Next
Part 1: The Sovereign Trader
Chapter 1: Brain-Compatible Trading
Recognizing the Human Barriers to Trader Success
Using Neurofinance to Look Deep Inside the Trader Brain
Recognizing Typically Human Behavioral Patterns
Leveraging Neuroscientific Discoveries
Trading Success Factors
Chapter 2: Developing Mental Strength
Preparing the Mind
Avoiding Trading Stress Traps
Becoming More Resilient
Part 2: Making a Successful Trade
Chapter 3: Developing Your Personal Trading System
Working with Demo Accounts
Pattern Recognition: Where Practice Makes Perfect
Recognizing and Developing Your Trading Strengths
Chapter 4: Implementing Your Trading Plans
Managing Your Opportunities Intelligently
Balancing Opportunities and Risks (Risk/Reward Ratio)
Resisting the Evolutionary Urge to Cash In
Recognizing That Fear Is a Bad Advisor
Gaining Emotional Distance
Keeping Greed in Check
Managing Losses: The Trader Psyche at Its Limit
Part 3: Emotional Sovereignty
Chapter 5: Seeing Trading as Personality Development
Keeping a Trading Journal
Getting to Know Your True Trader Personality
Trading as a Team Sport: Avoiding Tunnel Vision
Chapter 6: Practicing Mental Self-Coaching
Benefitting from Self Hypnosis: Seeing Your Subconscious Mind as a Trading Ally
Chapter 7: The Psychology of Coping with Losses
Registering the Psychological Impact of Losses
Developing Mental Strategies for Coping with Losing Trades
Chapter 8: Adopting Techniques for Coping with Stress and Anxiety
Harmonizing the Body with the Mind
Working with the Images in Your Mind
Part 4: Making Decisions Safely
Chapter 9: Untangling Decision-Making's Hidden Path
Recognizing Systematic Perceptual Disorders
Tracing Selective Perceptions
Dealing with Gross Oversimplifications
Channeling Dangerous Emotions
Maintaining an Overview in the Face of Information Overload
Acknowledging the Perils of Storytelling
Telling Trading Stories
Chapter 10: Using Evolutionary Rules of Thumb
Leveraging Mental Shortcuts When Under Pressure
Fashioning the World You Want, Not the World That Is
Practicing Humility Instead of Indulging in “I Told You So”
Escaping the Dissonance Trap
Chapter 11: Finding the Right Basis for Decision-Making in Trading
Seeing Why Investors Hold On to Losing Shares and Sell Winning Shares Too Early
Plumbing the Secrets of Success
When Fear of Loss Makes You Lose Your Mind
Part 5: Keeping Bad Behavior in Check
Chapter 12: Avoiding the Obvious Mistakes
Putting Reference Points in Perspective
Synchronizing Risk Tolerance
Chapter 13: Dealing with the Stock Exchange's Collective Misbehavior
Living the Stone Age Life
Caution: Contagion Ahead!
Dealing with Information Overload
Discovering Slowness
Chapter 14: Getting a Better Grip on Your Trading Ego
Dismantling the Myth of Learning from Your Mistakes
The Illusion of Control: Not Having the Handle on Things You Think You Have
Thinking That the World Dances to Your Tune
Living with Hindsight Bias
Reining in Overconfidence Bias
Handling Optimism Bias
Chapter 15: Fear: Your Constant Trading Companion
Reckoning with the Dominance of Emotions
Recognizing How Your Trading Fears Affect You
Finding Your Way Out of the Fear Trap
The Fear of Feeling Regret
Part 6: The Parts of Ten
Chapter 16: Ten Psychological Traps to Avoid When Trading
Dismissing Demo Accounts Out of Hand
Insisting On Flying by the Seat of Your Pants
Letting Your Ego Rule the Roost
Believing That Goals Are for Wimps
Attempting to Bat 1000
Indulging in Revenge Trading
Overtrading
Doubling Down to Recover Losing Trades
Failing the Marshmallow Test
Being (Unnecessarily) Contrarian
Chapter 17: Ten Success Secrets of Mentally Superior Traders
Gaining the Right Inner Attitude to Trading
Adopting a Process-Oriented Trading Approach
Prioritizing the Protection of the Capital in Your Trading Account
Carrying Out the Necessary Mental Loss Management
Exercising Mental Opportunity Management
Staying Humble
Taking Responsibility
Keeping a Trading Journal
Finding Your Personal Trading Style
Maintaining the Balance between Cognition and Emotion
Chapter 18: Ten Guiding Principles for the Perfect Trading Day
Planning Out the Technical Aspects of the Day
Planning for Unexpected Scenarios
Managing Risks Beforehand
Filtering Relevant Information
Being Mentally Prepared
Keeping Your Parameters in Mind
Managing Ongoing Trades Professionally
Controlling Your Emotions in Advance
Evaluating Your Trading Day
Learning from Your Mistakes and Developing Further
Index
About the Author
Connect with Dummies
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 4
TABLE 4-1 Doing the Math
TABLE 4-2 The Impact of a Drawdown on Your Portfolio
List of Illustrations
Chapter 3
FIGURE 3-1: A requirement profile for traders.
FIGURE 3-2: The competence atlas for traders.
FIGURE 3-3: A motivational profile as a graphical overview.
Chapter 4
FIGURE 4-1: Trading's vicious circle.
Chapter 5
FIGURE 5-1: Page 1 of a typical trading journal.
FIGURE 5-2: Page 2 of a typical trading journal.
Chapter 11
FIGURE 11-1: The pyramid trading strategy in an upward trend with long position...
FIGURE 11-2: The pyramid trading strategy in a downward trend with short positi...
Guide
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
Index
About the Author
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Introduction
Trading psychology — the psychological basis of securities trading— generally isn’t taken very seriously, even though experts maintain that your emotions and your mental state are actually what determine the success or failure of your trading business. Those in the know are clear on this point: Trading is 80 percent psychology and 20 percent methodology. Trading is fundamentally a matter of character.
Trading — the common term for the short-term trade in securities, currencies, and financial derivatives — has become increasingly popular recently. Discount brokers especially have been seeing record numbers since 2020. They promise they'll make stock market trading as easy as pie with the help of their various trading apps. This has a certain attraction for a younger, less experienced generation and encourages gambling. But a word to the wise: If you're looking for an adrenaline rush and you think that leveraged products will make you rich overnight, you're sure to hit the rocks sooner or later. Trading in financial instruments is a sophisticated business and requires not only lots of patience and discipline but a clear head as well. You don’t stand a chance without a plan, a strategy, and processes you can rely on.
Regarding terminology, I'd like to make one thing clear from the start: When I say traders in this book, I'm referring to those private investors who independently invest their own money on the stock market at their own risk and on a short-term basis. The time period can be as short as a few minutes (scalping) or as long as a few weeks (position trading).
Fundamentally, trading in this sense is the opposite of a long-term investment. You're looking for calculated short-term profit. If you make regular contributions to a stock portfolio in order to prepare for retirement, you're a long-term investor, not a trader. Admittedly, you could turn a trading position into a long-term investment now and then, perhaps because you don’t want to sustain a loss, so you use a bit of mental jujitsu on yourself and — voilà — your short-term investment is now presented as something you'd always intended as a long -term investment. (I talk more about this bias known as mental accounting later on in this book. I know: The suspense is killing you.)
The stock market is all about psychology, and trading places psychology under a magnifying glass. Limiting beliefs, self-doubt, a lack of self-control, unprocessed traumatic experiences from the past, those negative conversations you hold with yourself (self-talk, to use the current jargon), and harmful patterns of thought will all come to light sooner or later as you go about your work as a trader. As such, trading turns out to be quite an expensive way to work through your personality issues. After all, you're risking your own money on the markets — conceivably, money in the form of savings you worked very hard to accrue. And the numbers are against you because (according to statistics) over 90 percent of all private traders on the stock exchange don’t earn any money. The vast majority close their trading account within a few months, feeling frustrated — often, after suffering a total loss. The success rate is particularly low for those operating in the short-term arena.
An old stock market proverb puts it well: If you don’t know yourself, the stock market is an expensive place to figure out who you are. The traders who are successful have not only often learned some quite expensive lessons but have also experienced quite the emotional roller-coaster ride. However, they have moved beyond themselves, overcoming that which initially limited them. It’s worth the effort, as experienced traders will readily acknowledge. Having finally obtained their financial freedom, independence, and self-determination, they'll refuse to give up such hard-earned gains voluntarily.
When you have dealt with the trading business long enough, you discover that it’s always the very same problems that continue to drive you up the wall — coping with loss, your fear, your own greed, your lack of discipline, the loss of control, stress, being overburdened, or overconfidence. All such ills are direct consequences of the special features of financial markets you have to contend with — namely, uncertainty, volatility, hyperbolic situations, barely visible actors, and, to top it all off, automated programs and algorithms that don’t care a fig whether you win or lose. Price movements are neither as predictable nor as controllable as you think, and they happen to be more random.
You won't move the markets as an individual trader. You have no influence on what is happening in the market. What you can do is you can work with probabilities and patterns, and you can also change your perception of the markets — your attitude and point of view, in other words. You control those things that are within your power to control: yourself. You keep a clear head. This is how mental strength is created.
Never let the markets take control of you and your trader psyche. A successful process orientation and a fixed set of rules protect you from losing control. Protecting your portfolio is your top priority.
Our evolutionary heritage weighs heavily; we are not naturally suited to trading. The human brain isn’t designed to operate successfully on financial markets. The way the stock market works contradicts our naturally acquired ways of thinking and behavior. Therefore, it’s even more important to internalize fixed routines and to systematize your trading so that you can protect yourself.
You'll develop as a trader when you find out what you can control, what you can change, and why. What are your trading goals? What are your expectations? What trading style matches your personality? Only then can you address the question of a) how you want to proceed and b) which methods you want to use. The challenge with trading is a psychological challenge. Trading platforms and systems are important but do not determine your success. You alone are responsible for what you earn with your trading — not the technology, not the systems, and not the markets, either.
About This Book
This book about trading psychology isn’t one of those heavy theoretical tomes — I wanted it to be a practical book where I can offer advice. The idea is to provide you with multiple examples, practical tasks, and useful exercises designed to build the psychological foundations you need in order to prepare yourself for the specific requirements of trading. Beginners, in particular, underestimate the psychological stress factors involved in trading. Getting rich quick on the stock exchange is a tempting proposition but not at all realistic, as the statistics confirm. This book will save you from many painful and expensive experiences. I'll provide you with the mental armor you'll need in order to trade in a successful, brain-compatible manner.
Trading is a hard-core business that punishes mistakes and weaknesses immediately. You're playing with the top echelon right from the start. Whether you're a professional or an amateur, you're all competing in the same markets. Regardless of which market you choose to be active in, you'll be unable to move it one way or another. It's the other ones, the big professional actors, who move the markets. Let this fact teach you to be humble, but don't let it intimidate you too much. Your status as a small fish means that you're flexible; you're not subject to investment guidelines or other practical constraints. Your niche isn't competing with anyone. You're trading under the radar of the big fish, and you can profit from that fact.
This book is addressed to all market participants. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, the psychological effects apply to you all, albeit to different extents. You'll be sure to profit when you understand how the distorted and biased way you make financial decisions affects your portfolio. Neither will it hurt to see to what extent your trading performance depends on your emotional state.
If you read this book from start to finish, you will
Be in a better position to know whether trading really and truly is something for you
Find out which character traits and core competencies are needed for trading
Familiarize yourself with mental self-coaching techniques and understand how to develop psychological resilience and mental strength
Understand that developing as a trader involves psychological development
Conventions Used in This Book
This book is written in the most practical and realistic manner possible, regarding the topic of trading psychology. I avoid complicated and extensive scientific explanations. I hope you can forgive me that my explanations about exciting discoveries in modern brain research tend to be a tad theoretical. After all, neurofinance is my passion. (If you’re keeping track, most of the more theoretical paragraphs in this book sport the Technical Stuff icon.)
I am looking forward to your feedback and your opinions. I am grateful for any suggestions and corrections. Please share your experience. That will provide material for any revised editions. If the topics in this book speak to you or you realize with some embarrassment that you’re not familiar with one particular corner of the trading world and you want to inform yourself, go to my website at www.roland-ullrich.com. There, you'll find a wealth of blog articles, videos, coaching materials, and workshops.
What You Don’t Need to Read
This book is structured in a reader-friendly way — that means you don't need to read its 300 pages from beginning to end. Browse the book at your leisure and read the parts and chapters that interest you. The cross-references in the book provide you with more in-depth information on topics you want to know more about. The modular structure gives you the option to read individual parts of the book independently. This obviously has the consequence that you will see repetition. If you read the book from end to end, you'll know all about the fact that such repetitions are the key to stabilizing the neural circuits and synaptic connections in your brain.
You can skip the text in the sidebar boxes, if you like. Those contain further information, entertaining stories, and anecdotes that aim to loosen up the book. (Of course, feel free to read them — they may bring a smile to your face.)
Foolish Assumptions
Because you’re obviously interested in the topic of trading psychology, I assume that you have some experience with the stock exchange. That means you have presumably made profits and losses with your own money. There's a slight chance you may have experienced a number of involuntary emotional outbursts. In my experience, some people will have experienced more severe losses. In any case, you should understand that psychology plays an important role in trading.
Here are some further assumptions I have made about you:
You want to understand what goes on in your brain when you make financial decisions.
You want to know what influence evolution has had on your thought and behavioral patterns.
Sometimes, you can’t get a grip on your emotions.
You need support when you experience fear and stressful situations.
You want to learn how to make better and smarter decisions.
You want to be able to deal with unavoidable losses in a more sensible manner.
You’re looking for methods to develop mental strength and psychological resilience in trading.
You can’t find a strategy, niche, or trading style that suits you.
You want to know which character traits and core competencies are important in trading.
You want to know whether trading is truly something for you.
How This book Is Organized
This book has six parts. Its simple structure is easy to understand, and it should help you navigate the content. The structure looks like this:
Part 1: The Sovereign Trader
Does the fact that it's difficult to consistently earn money on the stock market surprise you? The explanation is as simple as it is sobering: You're human! And that means you have all the genetic dispositions associated with being a human being. The first part of this book explains the evolutionary development process and the neural structure of the human brain. When it comes to brains, everyone gets the standard model — no upgrades are available.
It turns out that your fundamental nature isn’t particularly suited to trading. Don’t worry, though: You can learn to be suited for it, simply because the human brain is quite capable of change and development. You can learn the mental prerequisites for brain-compatible trading. With the right mindset, you can preemptively recognize and avoid trading errors. The innovative discoveries of modern neurofinance research have revealed the necessary success factors for brain-compatible — and therefore successful — trading.
Part 2: Making a Successful Trade
Successful trading depends on how consistently you practice trading and develop your trading skills. Using a demo account makes it easier for you to test your strategies; paper trading trains the sequences and processes involved in trading until you can automatically call them up. In this part, I show you the advantages of frictionless trading processes and how you can profit from training plans. I introduce you to the secrets of explicit and implicit pattern recognition — the supreme trading discipline! You'll find out how to improve your profit opportunities while limiting your risk exposure. I show you how to get a grip on losing streaks impacting your portfolio as well as getting a grip on your psyche.
Part 3: Emotional Sovereignty
You'll get tons of very practical tips and notes in this part. The many exercises and tasks should help you develop your personality as a trader as well as help you act in an emotionally sovereign, strong-willed way. An important technical and psychological component to your development involves keeping a trading journal. It’s the key to your personal development. With it, you'll be in a position to recognize and solve psychological patterns affecting your trading behavior. With all this knowledge, you'll be able to find a trading style that suits your personality.
A further important component involves self-coaching techniques. All the exercises I discuss are designed to provide you with the mental strategies you need in order to deal with losses, stress, and fear in a healthier way. You'll find out how you can work to set aside the beliefs you hold that are sabotaging your success as well as how to quiet that stream of negative self-talk that is holding you back. From this inner work, you'll gain confidence and strengthen your self-esteem.
Part 4: Making Decisions Safely
In this part, you'll lay the foundations for smart and well-thought-out trading decisions. You'll see how to deal with subconscious decision-making processes and how to better manage your susceptibility to failure. After having grasped the evolutionary development of your brain, you'll be able to preempt irrational thought and behavioral patterns and to make use of the trading rules of thumb I introduce in this section. This is how to find the correct foundation for trading decisions.
Part 5: Keeping Bad Behavior in Check
This part is all about recognizing and understanding how irrational and biased your behavior has been so far, including when trading. Behavioral finance research has made some exciting discoveries in this area. Keep in mind that systematic miscalculations, cognitive and emotional biases, and a pronounced herd mentality tend to have grave consequences. You'll find out how to recognize this kind of incorrect behavior and avoid it. You'll also see how to better deal with your ego and better understand your feelings of fear and regret.
Part 6: The Parts of Ten
Picture The Parts of Ten as a hit list of important stock exchange knowledge. It’s a significant component of the For Dummies series. Without attempting to be exhaustive, I present ten avoidable psychological trading traps that you should always keep in mind when you’re trading. Then I show you the ten secrets of success of mentally superior traders. If you take these to heart, there is practically nothing standing in your way when it comes to becoming a successful trader. Finally. I explain the ten basic rules for the perfect trading day.
Icons Used in This Book
It's part of the For Dummies tradition series to use icons. They’re meant to catch the eye and loosen up the structure of the book. In this book, you'll find the following symbols.
The Tip icon marks bits of information you will find particularly helpful. When you’re skimming the book, these tips should pop out to give you a quick grasp of the topic.
The Remember icon marks information that’s important to keep in mind. Sometimes it reviews topics from earlier in the book that are relevant to the information being presented.
The Technical Stuff icon marks information of a technical nature that is more important to someone working in the field who might need to see a bit more depth.
The Warning icon points out bits of information you can use to avoid issues you might encounter.
Here you'll find examples that help get the point across.
Beyond the Book
In addition to the introduction you’re reading right now, this book comes with a free, access-anywhere Cheat Sheet containing information worth remembering about the nature of trading psychology and the trading brain. To get this Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and type Trading Psychology For Dummies Cheat Sheet in the Search box.
What’s Next
Now that you've had a chance to read the operating manual for this particular book, I hope you realize what you’re in for. So, get going! Start wherever you want when it comes to its 300 pages. Look for topics that most interest you. Use this book as a reference book and advisor. Try out the techniques and exercises provided. They’re definitely worth your while, and they will propel you further down the road of trading success.
I hope you have lots of fun with these lessons and that you have lots of success implementing them in the exciting world of trading.
Part 1
The Sovereign Trader
IN THIS PART …
See why humans have such a hard time acting successfully in financial markets
Trace the evolutionary development and the neuronal structure of the human brain
Master the art of brain-compatible training
Build on your strengths and cope with your weaknesses
Chapter 1
Brain-Compatible Trading
IN THIS CHAPTER
Seeing how human evolution has impacted financial decision-making processes
Looking more closely at the trader brain
Understanding neural circuits and biochemical processes
Tracing the miracle of neuroplasticity
Using process orientation for success
In this chapter, I take you way back — way, way back. Across millions of years, the evolutionary selection process has made us humans what we are today. We must take that knowledge into account when we’re surprised about behaviors that no longer fit in our modern time — including behaviors on the trading floor. To better understand what’s going on, it pays to take a closer look at the trader brain. (I hope to convince you that this closer look will provide some answers.) Modern brain research has made some exciting discoveries about how the decision-making process actually takes place — which parts of the brain are involved and which biochemical processes occur simultaneously, for example. In fact, the research has progressed to such an extent that experts in the field are able now to predict financial decisions by the activity of specific areas of the brain.
By their very nature, your brain and its interconnections are not quite suitable for the trading business. But you can train them to overcome their inherent weaknesses. The human brain is changeable and can adapt to changing conditions. In other words, you can learn behaviors for successful trading — brain-compatible trading, in other words.
The key to successful trading is process orientation — what I call the systemization of your trading approach. You need professional rules and a proven trading strategy in order to survive in unpredictable markets. When you add that to a trading style that suits your personality, there may not be much holding you back when it comes to a successful trading career.
Recognizing the Human Barriers to Trader Success
In the last decades, science has closely investigated human behavior in the area of economic decision-making. The findings are sobering. The science tells us that humans are characterized by emotional patterns of thought and behavior that have been formed in the course of evolution. The science is also telling us that there's a good chance that these subconscious automatic behaviors are unsuitable when it comes to making wise financial decisions. In numerous studies, behavioral economists have demonstrated how irrational humans are when they’re making investments. The truth is, financial decision-making behavior can be distorted by many factors, including these:
Overestimating your abilities
Learning from your mistakes seems beyond your power
Letting emotions, such as fear and greed, unconsciously determine your behavior when making financial decisions
Letting yourself get carried away by the crowd
Being unable to objectively assess risks
Letting the situation — rather than calculation — determine your appetite for risk
Taking profits too early and letting losses run on
Taking a closer look at the brains of investors and traders demonstrates why the failings listed here occur and how they impact the decision-making process. Laboratory experiments within the relatively young field of neurofinance provide some exciting answers.
Using Neurofinance to Look Deep Inside the Trader Brain
Neurofinance is an interdisciplinary area of research that resulted from the combined efforts of economists, behavioral psychologists, and neuroscientists in the 1990s. Neurofinance research, by making use of modern brain research methods, focuses on analyzing financial decision-making processes. These are the central questions: How does the human brain deal with money? Which neural structures are involved in processing financial decisions? What is the importance of the biochemical processes in the brain when it comes to dealing with money? Neurofinance studies of the drivers of choice behavior pay special attention to the trading behavior of financial market actors, focusing on the central question of how behavioral and cognitive biases distort the rational decision-making of investors. Another aspect is the influence of personality traits on investor behavior.
The neurobiological correlates of financial decision-making processes have been decoded. A brain scanner can display the enormous influence of emotions, cognitive biases, and archaic instincts in real time. Most of the time humans may not act rationally. Many of the phenomena described in behavioral finance research can be explained by taking a closer look at the trader brain. Today, brain researchers are able to predict and influence investor behavior.
Professor Bernd Weber, a clinical neuroscientist and dean of the Medical Faculty at the University of Bonn, has come to the conclusion that, because of their evolutionary development, humans are incapable whatsoever of rational thinking and acting. That would also suggest (quite highly, in fact) that the human brain simply isn’t made to invest successfully in the stock market. The laws and functioning of financial markets contradict learned human behaviors.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRAIN SCANNER
With the help of new measuring procedures, brain research in the past 30 years learned more about the workings of the human brain than in the previous 100 years combined. Neuroscientific research tools — in particular, functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) — make the activities of the brain visible and show which regions are activated when carrying out specific tasks. You can see the brain at work in real time, so to speak. This means it’s possible to analyze human behavior when dealing with money from a neuroscientific perspective. Laboratory experiments explain irrational financial decisions, emotions, and the impact of evolution on human behavior on capital markets.
The neural networks in the human brain have developed over the past million years and have adapted to the respective living conditions faced by said humans. We today are the result of an evolutionary selection process, where the genetic makeup and the structure of the human brain has changed incredibly slowly. As a matter of fact, according to leading neuroscientists the human brain hasn’t changed much over the last 50,000 years. In the face of the rapid developments of the world in the last centuries, evolution has been unable to keep up. Unconscious and highly automated behaviors probably arose as the best possible adaptation to prevailing environmental conditions. Automated behaviors when faced with threat situations probably kept humans alive in the Stone Age (fight-or-flight reflex), but present-day threat situations still trigger the same stimulus-response patterns.
The living conditions of the human species have changed drastically, but evolution isn't that fast. The human brain comes from another time. Deeply rooted instincts still determine our behavior, especially when we are under emotional duress. These instinctual mechanisms do not suit the ways present-day financial markets function. Humans are conditioned to act, while the stock exchange often rewards patience and waiting.
Is our evolutionarily ancient brain system even suited to make sensible trading decisions? Neurofinance research has answered this question with a resounding No. We were given a brain to help us survive in a harsh environment; its nature isn’t suited to making economically rational decisions in complex financial markets.
Recognizing Typically Human Behavioral Patterns
Today we understand that our brain, over the millennia, has always tried to adapt in the best possible manner to our respective living conditions. In comparison to the millions of years of our history of evolution, the past centuries are only a tiny window of time, but one with a dynamic speed of change that never occurred before this. That means the neural circuits in our brain may require a few generations until they have adapted to modern life.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the behavior and thought patterns of many market participants aren’t always rational and therefore can be explained better within an evolutionary context.
Deeply rooted reflexes and unconscious reactions from previous epochs seem to determine our financial decisions. This applies to individual traders as well as to the majority of market participants. Strong price movements are emotionally contagious and can lead to collective herd behavior. That’s why the stock exchange is, at its most fundamental level, psychology. To fully comprehend the psychological nature of the stock exchange, you must realize that the dominant emotions experienced there stem from another era and that they are characterized by irrational exaggeration in both directions. Speculative bubbles and stock market crashes repeat at regular intervals, as the history of the stock market shows.
This may sound quite sobering for traders, but it explains market realities.
Don’t let yourself be fooled: The neurobiological prerequisites for successful trading are not a given.
But there is hope: You can balance many human inadequacies and learn to acquire the necessary equipment for brain-compatible trading. It requires a lot of practice and training. Self-awareness and self-reflection are the first step. As a trader, you should understand and accept how your brain works. Be clear that the structure of your brain isn’t suited to financial market mechanisms. You have no other option but to accept that fact. You have only one brain.
You can’t change anything about your genetic makeup, but you can learn to deal more consciously with your emotions and natural reflexes. You need to do so from the position of an objective observer. When you learn to perceive your response patterns in a more conscious manner, you can avoid all sorts of evolutionary traps. You'll be in a position to adapt your behavior to markets by observing, analyzing, and following the markets in a conscious manner.
Our expert knowledge and our own analytical logical powers of thought can be called up only when we can reduce the negative impacts of emotions. This is the only way to be balanced and in full possession of our cognitive capacity — with unfiltered access to our intellect and intuition.
The discoveries of modern brain research can build a bridge between the realities of human behavior and the way that financial markets function. Neurofinance can provide you with an important set of tools as you make your way down the path to becoming a successful trader.
Leveraging Neuroscientific Discoveries
Accepting the limitations of the structures of your brain initially sounds frustrating. However, modern brain research has some good news: The human brain isn’t hard-wired — it’s capable of change throughout our lives.
Fifty years ago, science was still convinced that human brains were fixed and incapable of change. Today, we know that the central nervous system and our brain slowly but steadily change in response to our actions and experiences over the course of our entire lives.
Neuronal (also known as synaptic) plasticity refers to the ability of our brain to change and optimize processes and sequences when used effectively. To simplify, one can say that the brain works like a muscle: When you don’t use neuronal structures and synaptic connections, they tend to degrade over time. Networks you do use intensively tend to stabilize and strengthen over time. This is visible on a brain scanner and can be easily recognized.
The psychologist Donald Hebb is considered to have discovered synaptic plasticity. In 1949, he formulated the learning rule named after him (Hebb’s rule) which states that learning processes take place in neural networks by means of synaptic transfer between neurons (in other words, “Neurons that fire together wire together”). Consistent repetition creates stable new connections and strengthens memory.
Neuroplasticity always works in both directions, independent of age. By that, I mean that you can
Lose abilities if you don’t use them
Learn abilities if you practice them consistently
You probably use a navigational system when you're driving in an unknown area. (It’s practically basic equipment for cars these days.) This leads to cognitive offloading, where the hard work of cognitive processing is shifted to somebody (or something) else. (The evidence for such cognitive offloading is quite clear, as research on brain scanners shows.) Research has proven that our natural orientation skills significantly worsen with the use of navigational systems.
The determining factor in learning any new skill is regular repetition. Practice makes perfect, as the old saying goes. We can do anything we want if we practice regularly and intensively. Abilities aren’t genetic; there is no natural talent for trading. Because it’s now a simple matter to open a trading account and just start trading, lots of newbies underestimate the amount of time, stamina, and practice required in order to trade successfully.
According to best-selling author Malcolm Gladwell, you can achieve anything with discipline and hard work. In Outliers, his book from 2008, he explains how extremely successful people — athletes and professional musicians, for example — train on the average for 10,000 hours over the course of their career. Practice is much more important for success than talent, the author claims.
Trading Success Factors
Even if current studies on the topic of peak performance in general come to the conclusion that talent is the most important factor when it comes to success, this applies to only a limited extent to the trading business. If you want to be successful in trading, you require large measures of motivation, discipline, and stamina. All three have more to do with attitude than with talent. Without the appropriate mindset, you won't achieve your goals. If you want to master your field, you need to develop constantly and train consistently. Expert status will not just fall from the sky and you certainly don’t get it at birth. Training and performance are tightly linked — no doubt about it.
In looking at trading success, I've determined that there are a few basic success factors, all of which can be divided into these four main areas:
Processes
Practice
Personality
Talent
The secret to success in trading is to have clear processes and structures as well as predefined strategies and trading plans. You must train for these, until the fixed sequences become part of your flesh and blood. Routines provide you with the support and stability you need in stressful situations without having to think about them. Habits keep your head free, saving cognitive energy that you can use for more important tasks in trading. Formulated in a neuroscientific manner: Repetition builds and consolidates the neural circuits of process orientation until they can be recalled automatically. This doesn’t sound particularly exciting, but it’s the key to success. After all, your behavior won't change by changing your opinion. A new conviction is formed only when you have drilled the new behavior into you.
Trading is a particular psychological and emotional challenge that humans aren’t ready for in their natural state. Tried-and-tested processes provide you with security and prevent old reflexes from taking over in stressful situations.
Your personality as a trader plays an important role here. This is because markets will hold up an unfiltered mirror to you and will lay bare your specific strengths and weaknesses. This is why having a good mix of strong personal characteristics and competencies is so important.
Every trader has individual talents for certain trading styles and market segments or niches. With a lot of practice, you can perfect your personal abilities. In this way, you'll become an expert in your particular niche. The trick is finding the right trading environment for your personality. (For more on how to determine your trader personality and trading style, see Chapter 3.)
Using psychological testing tools to identify your personality traits and determine your fields of competency helps you discover your special strengths and develop them in the most effective way. I can assure you that this method has helped many traders achieve real breakthroughs in their development.
This is why it’s in your hands — well, your head, to be exact — to create the prerequisites and the foundation for successful trading.
Expertise requires many years of hard work and a lot of practice. What sets successful traders apart is goal orientation, a strong will, a lifelong desire to learn, and a willingness to always develop further. The brain of a successful trader has developed and consolidated the corresponding neural circuits because, as you have now found out, trading is first and foremost a head thing, not a market thing.
Chapter 2
Developing Mental Strength
IN THIS CHAPTER
Defining mental strength
Aiming for self-analysis instead of market analysis
Moving step-by-step toward your goal
Dealing with stress
Building mental resilience
Traders report that one of the biggest problems they encounter is a lack of discipline. They note that this lack of discipline sometimes leads to a loss of control as well as avoidable errors in the preparation and execution of trades. The truth is, what they lack is the mental strength necessary for the trading business. Motivation is no substitute for discipline.
The development of mental strength — the focus of this chapter — is an essential prerequisite for your success in trading. That development begins with the mental preparation of each trading day. A positive mindset promotes self-discipline and allows you to focus on the success parameters of your trading strategies. In this way, you continually learn and develop, which is always your own best strategy for avoiding stress and lessening emotional pressures. Mental strength and stress resilience are mutually dependent. In the face of incalculable and volatile markets, you need a good portion of mental resilience.
Preparing the Mind
How do you prepare for a typical trading day? You probably invest a lot of time in the analysis of fundamental data, market indicators, and charts. You read studies and carefully view the daily flood of news on various channels. You follow one or two experts and include their market assessments when you prepare your trading plans.
Viewed from the psychological point of view, these efforts serve to reduce the extent of uncertainty and give you a feeling of control. This creates self-confidence in a market environment that is always hard to predict. Therefore, some traders put a considerable amount of effort into market analysis.
Searching for the holy grail
Let's be honest: All traders are secretly looking for the perfect strategy, the much-cited holy grail (the dream of guaranteed success on the stock exchange, in other words.) That’s why traders invest so much energy into sophisticated forecasting models and complicated calculation models.
The holy grail strategy originated in the United States with Linda Bradford Raschke, known the world over as one of the best commodities and futures traders. In the mid-1990s, she developed a set of trading setups — strategies that were supposed to predict the optimum entry point during clear trend movements to maximize profits and minimize risks. The defined trading signals were supposed to enable an optimum risk-reward ratio. These classic trend-following systems, however, require stable trends to work. They lose their halo in volatile sideways markets. According to the Arthurian legend, the original Holy Grail disappeared and its secret was never discovered. In the trading world, the search for the grail continues unabated. (It’s a wistful goal, in my humble opinion.)
In retrospect, the holy grail has achieved notoriety by way of its name rather than its track record for producing profitable trading strategies, but that doesn't mean that Linda Raschke’s holy grail strategy doesn't deserve a closer look. In my opinion, her "legendary" trading approach provides three valuable fundamental principles that are worth remembering for newbies as well as experienced traders:
Insisting on consistent risk minimization and loss limitation with every single trade
Developing systematic and structured trading processes
Opening a trade only if it has clearly identifiable chart patterns
Seeing why a market analysis isn’t sufficient
Why would I even suggest that an in-depth analysis of the markets isn’t sufficient for success? The answer is quite simple: because the human factor comes into play on the stock market. The trader’s psyche is the weak link in the process chain. Technical and fundamental preparation is just as important as mental preparation for what happens on the market. Your mental constitution and your attitude determine whether you will benefit from your technical expertise. Experience shows that it’s much harder to implement a tested strategy according to the rules than it is to find a new profitable strategy — apart from the fact that, unfortunately, there are no perfect consistently profitable strategies.
Don’t allow yourself to be fooled by the dubious promises of some self-appointed experts: “Guaranteed dream returns with my XYZ system” remains a pipe dream and serves only one purpose: to extract money from your pocket.
Doing self-analysis instead of market analysis
What is the correct procedure? First off, you need to shift your focus. Rather than focus exclusively on market analysis, devote more attention to self-analysis. Emotional stability, as well as the knowledge of your personal strengths and weaknesses, may offer significantly higher potential returns than crunching the numbers. In practice, there will always be more profitable strategies than profitable traders. Let me assure you: You need mental strength to implement your own strategy consistently — always based on your own pre-defined rules, in other words.
Self-analysis requires the willingness to engage in some introspection. You need to learn how to recognize your thought and behavior patterns as well as your emotional patterns early enough for it to be useful. Write down all anomalies immediately — because memory can deceive you after some time has passed.
Experience has taught me to write down patterns of any kind in a trading journal the moment I notice them, and I strongly suggest that you do the same. Otherwise, you give your ego time to correct unpleasant truths as it sees fit. At the end of the day, you can evaluate the entries in peace and reflect on them. (See Chapter 5 for more about trading journals.) Such reflection often leads to some useful insights, such as the ability to
Identify harmful patterns and their impact on profitability
Recognize useful patterns that you were not even aware of
Adopting the position of a neutral observer who is only documenting facts can be the best way to recognize your own strengths and weaknesses. That is the prerequisite for positive change and further development.
In Chapter 3, I go into detail about the various forms of pattern recognition.
The inability, or in some cases the unwillingness, to be introspective is a reason that many traders stagnate from the beginning and then give up after some time. Almost every trader has problem patterns. The art is to recognize these patterns and break through them.
With the right mindset, you can turn every trading day into a positive experience. You can't prevent loss days, and you’re unlikely to make money on the stock exchange every day. It’s therefore important that you refuse to identify with the losses, or you'll end up feeling like a loser.
If you focus on your strengths, implement your trading plans according to the rules, and limit your losses at an early stage, there’s no reason to doubt yourself. Just continue to learn and develop your strategies.
Observe your own behaviors carefully, ask the right questions, work on your trader personality, and develop mental strength rather than look for the holy grail.
Learning from experience: Small steps, big impact
As most everyone knows, no one can predict the future — you can only be prepared for certain likely developments. As a result of your thorough preparation, you’re sure to regularly make good and rational decisions — decisions that, despite their goodness and rationality, will turn out to be completely wrong. The best models don’t protect against wrong decisions.
According to a well-known trader adage, “If you set out to be smarter than the market, then you have already lost.” The trader who can realistically assess their abilities, however, still stands a chance.
The market holds up a mirror to you every single day. This may disrupt your self-image, but the market doesn’t care. The market immediately punishes personal weaknesses, emotional reactions, and a lack of preparation.
