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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
How a broad range of new immensely powerful technologies is disrupting and transforming every corner of our reality—and why you must act and adapt
Unsupervised: Navigating and Influencing a World Controlled by Powerful New Technologies examines the fast-emerging technologies and tools that are already starting to completely revolutionize our world. Beyond that, the book takes an in-depth look at how we have arrived at this dizzying point in our history, who holds the reins of these formidable technologies, mostly without any supervision. It explains why we as business leaders, entrepreneurs, academics, educators, lawmakers, investors or users and all responsible citizens must act now to influence and help oversee the future of a technological world. Quantum computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain, decentralization, virtual and augmented reality, and permanent connectivity are just a few of the technologies and trends considered, but the book delves much deeper, too. You'll find a thorough analysis of energy and medical technologies, as well as cogent predictions for how new tech will redefine your work, your money, your entertainment, your transportation and your home and cities, and what you need to know to harness and prosper from these technologies.
Authors Daniel Doll-Steinberg and Stuart Leaf draw on their decades of building and implementing disruptive technologies, investing and deploying funds, and advising business leaders, governments and supranational bodies on change management, the future of work, innovation and disruption, education and the economy to consider how every area of our lives, society, economy and government will likely witness incredible changes in the coming decade. When we look just a bit further into the future, we can see that the task facing us is to completely reinvent life as we know it—work, resources, war, and even humanity itself will undergo redefinition, thanks to these new and emerging tools. In Unsupervised, you'll consider what these redefinitions might look like, and how we as individuals, and part of society, can prevent powerful new technologies from falling into the wrong hands or be built to harm us.
- Get a primer on the foundational technologies that are reshaping business, pleasure, and life as we know it
- Learn about the lesser known, yet astonishing, technologies set to revolutionize medicine, agriculture, and beyond
- Consider the potential impact of new tech across business sectors—and what it means for you
- Gain the knowledge and inspiration you need to harness your own power and push the future in the direction of good for all of us not just the few
- Explore the best ways to invest in the changes these technologies of the future will bring about
This is a remarkably thorough and comprehensive look at the future of technology and everything it touches. Shining a light on many unsupervised technologies and their unsupervised oligarchy of masters.
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Seitenzahl: 512
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Foreword
Preface
Tracking the Exponential
A World Rebooting
Introduction
Where the World Is Now
2030: A New Future
1998: So Last Century
Humans 2.0
Devices
People Going Binary—Computers Going Quantum
Notes
Suggested Reading
PART I: Important Technologies You Cannot Ignore
CHAPTER 1: Foundational Technologies
Artificial Intelligence
GPT
Quantum Computing
Sources of Data
Advanced Communications
Key Takeaways
Notes
CHAPTER 2: Enabling Technology
Blockchain
Blockchain Mechanisms
Smart Contracts
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
Tokenization
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency
Key Takeaways
Notes
CHAPTER 3: Consumer-Facing Hardware Technologies
Robotics
Internet of Things
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 4: Important Uses of Technologies You Cannot Ignore
The Metaverse
Energy
Sourcing
Use of Frontier Technologies in the Up-Front Design and Planning of the Grid
Use
The Bioeconomy and Biodigital Convergence
Health/Medicine
Frontier Technologies and the Human Body
Integrating Computer Technology into the Human Body
Nanotechnology and Genetic Engineering
The Future of the Human Body
Key Takeaways
Notes
PART II: The Impact and Implications on Humanity of Disruptive Technologies
CHAPTER 5: Reinventing the Economy
Money, Banking, Spending, and the Future of Finance
Manufacturing and Production
Physical Real Estate
Energy
Entertainment
Gaming
The Metaverse
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 6: Reinventing Work
Setting the Scene
Productivity
What Jobs Will Be Lost?
Where Will New Jobs Come From?
Review of Key Sectors
Moving Forward: How Will People Work?
Key Takeaways
Note
CHAPTER 7: Reinventing Education
How Technology Affects the Structure and Implementation of Education
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 8: Reinventing Information and Communication
Information Is Power
Controlling Measurement
Data Overload
Fake News
Fact Checking
Echo Chamber Mentality, Freedom of Expression, and Biases
Virtual Influencers
Privacy, Tracking, Behavior, and Deep Data
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 9: Reinventing Control
Security, Privacy, and Fraud
Cyberattacks and Ransomware
Monitoring
Controlling the Media and the Message
Attention Economy, Response Triggering, and Deep Fakes
Nudge Theory and Incentives
Predicting and Influencing the Future
The Military
Government Use of Technology
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 10: Reinventing the Planet
Resources
Products and Processes
Real Estate
War
Key Takeaways
CHAPTER 11: Reinventing Humans and Humanity
Transhumanism: Blending Frontier Technologies with Humanity
Key Takeaways
Note
CHAPTER 12: Technology Reinventing Itself
Physical Dematerialization
Cognitive Dematerialization
Where Are the Future Centers of Innovation?
Investing in Frontier Technologies for Profit and Social Benefit: A Quantum Leap?
Key Takeaways
Note
CHAPTER 13: Key Influencers on Frontier Technologies
Mark Zuckerberg
Xi Jinping
Elon Musk
Peter Thiel
Samuel Altman
Demis Hassabis
Jensen Huang
Satya Nadella
Jeff Bezos
Marc Benioff
Vladimir Putin
Changpeng Zhao (“CZ”)
Vitaly Buterin (“Vitalik”)
Tim Cook
Peter Diamandis
Anne Wojcicki
Tim Sweeney
Eric Schmidt
Marc Andreessen
Bill Gates
Klaus Schwab
Amaka
The President of the United States
Key Constituencies Who Should Have Influence on the Future of Frontier Technologies
Key Takeaways
Notes
PART III: Final Thoughts
CHAPTER 14: Ethics and Policy
What Are—or Should Be—the Dominant Laws of Frontier Technology?
Should/Can Technologies Be Built Not to Favor Certain People Over Others?
How Should Systems Deal with Data Discrimination?
How Do We Deal with Mistakes When They Occur? Who Is Responsible?
How Do We Handle Combining Technology with Our Human Bodies and Minds?
What Are the Complications and Considerations of Technology Becoming Semi and Fully Autonomous?
A Computer's View of Computer Ethics by ChatGPT
When Can Technologies Be Defined to Have Consciousness and, at That Point, Should They Be Afforded Rights?
Conclusion
Notes
CHAPTER 15: Conclusion
Note
CHAPTER 16: Final Word
About the Authors
Index
Copyright
Dedication
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 5
Table 5-1 Disruptions and Moore's Law
Guide
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Foreword
Preface
Introduction
Suggested Reading
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
About the Authors
Index
End User License Agreement
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Praise for Unsupervised
“Unsupervised is an inspiring work that serves as a clarion call for everyone to actively engage with the powerful new technologies rapidly shaping our world today.”
—Philippe van CaenegemMentor and advisor; ex Salesforce MD Strategic Innovation
“Unsupervised provides a detailed account of what is changing and how it manifests. Daniel and Stuart have done a masterful job.”
—Clara DurodiéCEO of Cognitive Finance Group and author of Decoding AI in Financial Services
“Unsupervised asks the questions; it leaves the answers to the reader in a tone that educates and informs without being patronizing. We have no more reasons to avoid taking a stance on the cognitive revolution around us.”
—Marta Piekarska-GeaterDirector of DAO and Web3 Strategy, Consensys
“Reading Unsupervised underlined for me just how fundamental technology-instigated changes will be in every aspect of education, healthcare, business, the military, and government. We must all open our eyes and face these opportunities and challenges head-on. A must-read for everyone.”
—Laurence GellerChancellor, University of West London; founder and CEO, Strategic Hotels and Resorts (BEE); Chairman, International Churchill Society
“Daniel and Stuart have managed to create a seminal work on evolving technology that is also a cautionary tale about unintended consequences. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to be prepared for how technology—much of which barely even exists today—will impact their business and their life.”
—Richard MackChief Executive Officer, Mack Real Estate Group and Claros Mortgage Trust; co-creator of the Wharton School's Real Estate Disruptions Course
“The authors cut through to people who might not usually read books like this, but know the time is now to do so. Really nicely written.”
—Stephen KhanEditor of The Conversation (50 million monthly readers globally)
“This is a book on how once again a handful of extremely powerful actors control the mainstream implications of technologies without any transparency, accountability, or fair use/allocation.”
—Amit PradhanFounder, Silicon Valley Blockchain Society and Rainfall AI; Responsible Leader, BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt; and board member, Norwegian Refugee Council
“Cutting through the clutter, this book has profound implications on the collective action to shape these technologies for our society, responsibly and inclusively.”
—Gokce Gizer CloverFounder, Mercurychange; cofounder, EdenBase; and previously creator of Extreme Tech Challenge (XTC)
“Inspiring, provocative, thoughtful. Having a clear view of these different technologies in combination and the paths they can take, allows investors to deploy funds consciously and ensure we build the right future.”
—Carolina Casas ForgaCofounder, Sangha Capital
“Finally a book for everyone that's low on jargon and realistic about the challenges, but that also helps us start to figure out how to make the best of the incredible opportunity we face.”
—Eric Van der KleijCofounder, EdenBase; previously Head of Level39, CEO Tech City
“Unsupervised is a personal revelation. This book will be instrumental in my journey, a must-read for anyone looking to stay ahead of the curve.”
—Matt CyrankiewiczFounder, Future Group
“By highlighting the trade-offs we face, the authors inspire readers to make the most of the manifold opportunities and challenges before us. With its compelling narrative and empowering perspective, this book is an essential guide for navigating the transformative era we find ourselves in.”
—Oskar HartmannFounder Hartmann Holdings, LARIX and SIMILE funds and Unicorn Angels community
Unsupervised
Navigating and Influencing a World Controlled by Powerful New Technologies
Daniel Doll-Steinberg
Stuart Leaf
Foreword
Throughout human history, “Promethean moments” have happened suddenly, but their impact would spread gradually. Today, technological innovation is increasing the frequency of these moments, which now happen suddenly with an impact that is increasingly sudden as well.
Profound changes are now taking place: the constructs of centralized power that have dominated our economic and societal fabric since the “physical Industrial Revolution” are now dissolving into a spiderweb of bits, where productivity is being redefined.
Increasingly, technology presents us with a new, expansive, and flexible fabric. Activity, productivity, and value are no longer tethered to capital assets; they now flow though wires and glass cables—and also through the air in radio waves, with low friction to mass scale. Massive aggregation of, and seismic shifts in, human collective energy can now express itself in monumental waves at speeds not seen before.
In some ways we are experiencing a “return to the past” in terms of the flexibility of life, away from the tethering of humans to machines, capital assets, and corporate structures that only recently came to dominate society. The tethering and geographic limitations of these structures previously limited reach and rate of change. Technology now can accelerate waves of collective human cognition; this is providing a universal fabric that can “super amplify” the breadth of reach, the frequency of seismic shifts in collective attitude, and the volatility of outcomes in everything from mass communication, productivity, and war and weaponry, to economic outcomes for people and nations.
As such, technology in the hands of humankind is now akin to a massive double-edged sword—a light saber, in fact, in the hands of an untrained child. Wielding it can create instant and possibly irreversible impact, for good or for bad, faster than one can realize what has happened.
Taking a step back to understand the dynamism of what's happening—through both an historical lens and a forward-looking framework—is important as it helps to put everything in perspective. It's incumbent on us now both to understand the elevation of the impact that is happening with each subsequent generation of technology and to establish guardrails to help nudge everything in the positive direction.
I've spent my working life delivering value across waves of technology, first in silicon, then computer and communication equipment, then networks, then applications in “cloud and mobile,” and now in AI, blockchains, and data science. My approach has been simple: leveraging technology to solve problems with a very simple formula: 1) lower friction to a solution, 2) make the solution massively replicable, and 3) make it deeply scalable. That simple formula brought immense good to this world at a critical time as we all saw with solutions like Zoom Video (I was the company's first backer to commit funding) in a time of worldwide crisis.
Daniel and Stuart's book is a great framework to look at the underlying components of what's happening and why, to examine why it's critically important to have a handle on its power to drive change—and to steer it toward positive promise.
—Bill Tai
Venture capitalist and athlete; creator of the Extreme Tech Challenge; Chair of ACTAI Global; seed / angel investor in Zoom, Canva, Dapper Labs and many more
Preface
“Hell is truth seen too late.”
—Thomas Hobbes
Technology is advancing at an exponential rate; it is already dramatically affecting our lives. Yet almost all of us remain unaware of its extent. Unless thoughtful and impactful steps are taken now, this evolution will continue to accelerate at a pace truly beyond current comprehension and, scarily, virtually unsupervised. The consequences, both intended and unintended, are existential in their level of importance, so it is vital we work together to help forge the future of humanity, not leaving technology and those who control it to forge us. And time is running out. Who knows, this may be one of the last books ever written exclusively without generative artificial intelligence.
To best understand the context of the issues ahead of us, Part I describes many of the disruptive frontier technologies currently on the market, to provide readers with a broad-based understanding of how they work and why they are potentially so significant. Part II explores how these frontier technologies are now positioned to change almost everything we do, even who we are; and includes profiles of the most important global players, surprisingly few in number, who dominate the current, and quite possibly the future landscape of technology. Finally, Part IIIdiscusses our thoughts on the inevitable dominance of frontier technologies and how we can conscientiously navigate this new tech-driven world.
With so much happening almost simultaneously, writing this book has often felt like inscribing a message in the sand with the tide coming in. And the pace is picking up, with some frontier technology advance making new waves every week. With that in mind, for this book, we concentrate on issues that are not simply meaningful but truly compelling and likely to have a direct influence on our future. Caveat lector—the rate of change is so rapid that continuing to keep up will require considerable ongoing effort on all our parts.
Whenever possible, we have also attempted not to impose our opinions. This revolution will impact everybody, and yet it is being orchestrated by very few. We do not merely want to add our names to the few but rather encourage discussion and simply be part of the many.
Tracking the Exponential
Throughout time, the human brain evolved to enable the tracking of a single animal moving or accelerating at a linear rate. We are not designed to track one animal in a herd all moving randomly, especially when each one is accelerating exponentially. That is what is happening in technology right now. We are experiencing a seismic change in modern humanity, and most of us are not even aware. And to massively complicate matters, a combination of things is happening all at once:
Computational speed continues to accelerate dramatically, powering widespread innovation. Many new technologies are becoming omnipresent, commercialized, and often misused.
Various powerful technologies are becoming directly accessible to and usable by the general public, no longer requiring domain experts or even programmers to develop them (general purpose). We describe these as frontier technologies.
There is a growing dependence on technology in every sector, and consumers are becoming addicted—often by design.
Individuals around the world are building formidable technologies unsupervised, without any real oversight.
Some of these technologies are able to completely replace targeted human functions, at lightning speeds, with no need to be paid or rest.
At the same time, after decades of coming together, the world is becoming more divided. Who controls key technologies is a factor not to be ignored.
Over the past two decades, the amount of money invested by institutions, individuals, venture capitalists, big technology companies, and governments in new technology products, services, and companies has been growing at an insane rate. While this might slow in a down-market cycle, the aggregate power, disruption, and value of these technologies will not.
People have started to realize the asymmetric advantage of these technologies and are building them fast (mostly for their own benefit and/or power).
These technologies represent both significant benefits and challenges to humanity. Over the past 20 years, with COVID-19 as an incredible accelerant, they have become an indispensable part of our lives. Going forward, they will completely change our world. It is up to us to determine how.
Over the period of human evolution, 99 percent of humans have lived with barely enough to sustain themselves and enjoyed very few basic rights. In many parts of the world, the past century has witnessed an unprecedented “democratization” (although massive disparities remain). Technology can either further this positive trend or lead to a dangerous consolidation of power. Do our leaders understand the issues, and can they handle them? To make sure, it is vital we all engage in the discussion, striving to maintain the rights we have fought so hard to earn. As these technologies replace aspects of what we do, will we start to lose these rights?
No matter how small our individual actions, the aggregate effect can be enormous—a “swarm effect.”
A World Rebooting
Over the course of history, a small number of “innovations” have had a massively disproportionate impact on the course and rate of change of human evolution:
Harnessing fire
The wheel
The astrolabe (then compass) for navigation
Asymmetric weaponry (e.g., longbow, gunpowder, atom bomb)
The printing press
Harnessing energy (hydro, steam, electricity)
The transistor, silicon chip, the Internet, the smartphone, and social media
The final items have particularly redefined the future and underpinned the mastery by homo sapiens over the rest of life on Earth. Yet they all pale in comparison to what humanity is on the very verge of experiencing.
To say we are undergoing an evolution of existing technologies that had their roots a half century ago vastly understates the exponential nature and magnitude of the changes. It is not simply the continuation of the Industrial Revolution, rather a Cognitive Revolution in information and computation—a veritable explosion of artificial intelligence and frontier technologies.
In fact, this switch from the end of the age of the Industrial Revolution to the start of the age of the Cognitive Revolution could be seen as a third Promethean moment in the use of knowledge—the first being the printing press and the second the Industrial Revolution. The difference this time is the unprecedented speed at which the changes are occurring. And this pace will continue to accelerate.
The new Cognitive Revolution, and its many associated evolving technologies, is a vast topic. Although much has been written, there remains a remarkable lack of understanding both of the technologies themselves and of the practical and social implications they create.
Simply ignoring these technologies is dangerous. Had we been more aware 20 years ago of the consequences of social media and other new technologies, would we have so casually followed this path? Awareness and action are vital.
Introduction
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
—Sun Tzu
Where the World Is Now
At the start of this project in late 2020, we believed that by 2025, the world would start to “reboot” due to a range of disruptive frontier technologies. It is only 2023, and the process is already underway on many fronts. These include the following:
The rapid evolution of AI, including the public launch of ChatGPT from OpenAI—a technology few had heard of two years ago when it could not even execute simple mathematical equations for us—that could be accessed and used by millions whatever their technical level, simply through a command prompt becoming truly general purpose. It can now independently conduct research and write papers at graduate-student levels. Each new release promises to be many times more sophisticated.
An acceleration in funding and real progress in quantum computing.
The ability for computers to create art—so good it has been banned on certain marketing platforms.
AI computer code generators starting to match many of the best developers in the world. GitHub Copilot can create usable computer code so impressive, Andrej Karpathy, the previous director of AI and autopilot vision at Tesla, tweeted that he uses it to write about 80 percent of his code.
A new system called VALL-E was announced that can use a mere 3-second sample to accurately simulate anyone's voice.
And combined, all of these lead toward a concentration of power not seen since the Industrial Revolution.
The Industrial Revolution started in the United Kingdom in the late 1700s with Thomas Newcomen's prototype of the first modern steam engine. By the 1830s, it led to mechanization and the modern factory systems of Europe and the United States and started to replace manual workers. The Industrial Revolution effectively and rapidly replicated and then bettered human beings’ physical capabilities starting in manufacturing and farming and led to more than 200 years of astounding human achievement. It has not, however, been without massive dislocation on every front. In the early 1800s, 90 percent of the U.S. population lived on farms; it is now around 1 percent.1 Humanity has adapted. And just as the developed world has settled in and the developing world is looking to follow, the rules have changed, and there is nothing gradual about it.
The increase in computational power and explosion of new technologies is often referred to as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), but this term greatly understates its seismic impact. It is forcing, at breathtaking pace, an entire shift in paradigm. Our cognitive abilities are being copied, matched, and replaced by technologies—the capabilities of which grow exponentially, while our own increase only linearly, if at all. Today, we are actually in the early stages of the Cognitive Revolution. Entrepreneurs, Big Tech, and governments are spending billions a year, racing to replace what humans have done for millennia, and we are now integrating these technologies into every aspect of our lives and world. As frontier technologies become increasingly general purpose (i.e., not requiring domain experts to create them), more and more people will be able to deliver and deploy them, making them virtually unstoppable. This has enormous upside potential, but also creates considerable challenges. As during every previous leap forward, there will be numerous externalities and unintended consequences.
Over time, technologies will increasingly simulate the world and the human brain more accurately, allowing them to fully execute human processes and activities. Over the past five decades, every 18 months to 2 years, the power of these technologies has doubled. This could slow, but the odds are much stronger that it will accelerate, perhaps at unimaginable rates.
Then there is, of course, the added possibility these technologies become sentient, in which case everything changes—an event referred to as the Singularity.
The Cognitive Revolution has already seen technologies take over human roles in agriculture, industry, and even post-industrial domains. This has delivered and will continue to generate huge benefits. But who will gain, and who will lose?
Much of this book focuses on technology and data, but understanding the relative impact on capital and labor is also important. There are two specific lenses:
Productivity and disruption
Economic and innovation cycles
By overlaying these two, we can begin to understand the drivers of why the world is entering a period of such enormous and significant change.
Before embarking on this journey, we should underline that the technologies we discuss are almost all designed by people who strive to achieve “technology for good.” And there is little doubt the past couple of decades have seen some of the greatest improvements in human living standards in recorded history, by almost every metric—lifespan, healthcare, child mortality, decreased famine, among untold others. Also, after years of ecological neglect since the Industrial Revolution, we have begun to take serious steps toward reversing the damage. Technology is clearly one of the primary drivers behind sustainability and continues to offer powerful solutions in most areas of our lives. The concerns aired in this book address the very important issue that technology is neither inherently good nor bad; it depends completely on how it is used and by whom. In the wrong hands, much damage can be done.
We must all pay attention.
2030: A New Future
“When it rains, look for rainbows. When it’s dark, look for stars.”
—Oscar Wilde
By 2030 the AI component alone of new frontier technologies could deliver an almost $16 trillion contribution to the global economy and replace up to 30 percent of current total hours worked, hugely impacting as many as one billion people.2 Such a market value is almost as large as the United States’ economy today, and it is growing much faster.
To put these numbers in perspective, the COVID-19 global lockdowns of 2020 were estimated to have temporarily cost the global economy 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), or around $4.6 trillion,3 and furloughed 400 million jobs. Yet merely converting to driverless transportation could replace as much as 8 to 10 percent of global jobs.4
New frontier technologies are starting to replicate our cognitive abilities and are quickly becoming general purpose, with the potential to boost productivity in every industry—and fast. Two years ago, OpenAI's Generative Pre-trained Transformer version 3 (GPT-3) had just launched, and our tests showed that while it was an amazing technical achievement, it was rather basic. Today, it writes chapters like this one—and soon will probably do so much better than we can.
Founded in 2015, OpenAI made ChatGPT public in November 2022, and it immediately became a major focus of attention because it forced leaders in every sector (and users around the world) to focus on how much technologies like this will impact so much of our lives. In fact, some in the education sector have already called for it to be banned. The Italian government even instituted a ban (now reversed) on ChatGPT over concerns it had processed and used Italian data, citing the EU's General Data Protection Regulations. Even Elon Musk, a cofounder of ChatGPT, along with more than 1,000 other signatories, including AI professors and researchers at DeepMind, signed a letter calling for a 6-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4. But it's too late. This is a battle among the new oligarchs. Each new version released biannually has been exponentially more powerful (particularly when used in conjunction with other evolving frontier technologies that are now being rapidly developed to augment it). At this rate, by 2030 it will be on version 7 and most likely thousands, or even millions, of times more powerful. Licensed by Microsoft, it is becoming clear the technology behind ChatGPT (and others currently in development) is already at a point that industries will be forced to adopt them or languish. Even the current version is truly transformative—both empowering and potentially devastating.
Most people think the next generation of technologies will be limited to AI like ChatGPT; many transformative applications, however, have already hit the mainstream. LEGO's Mindstorm range, which successfully abstracts and simplifies the complexities of building machines, has long enabled teens to quickly create relatively complex robotics with a combination of hardware and software elements that are easy to assemble and customize. Innovative LEGO creations have included ATMs, vending machines, guitar and piano players, and even T-shirt folders, knitting machines, and mini LEGO car-making assembly lines.
Even though so much of our life has already been changed by technology, most people dramatically underestimate the full impact on the global economy. This stems from three key concepts:
Tesler's Theorem.
AI is whatever hasn't been done yet.
Amara's Law.
We overestimate technology in the short term but underestimate it in the long term.
Metcalfe's Law.
As any network grows linearly in size and data, it becomes exponentially more powerful.
That said, it won't be long before we are using self-driving cars, holding smartphones that read our minds, and engaging the world through augmented reality (AR)–enabled glasses (or even smart contact lenses with AI and AR built-in) and/or holograms. And as with ChatGPT, almost none of us will be aware until it bursts onto the scene. And almost right away they will all seem so normal to some and threatening to others. The number of applications is unfathomable and, on the positive side, are allowing us to deal with apparently intractable problems such as global warming. While many negative outcomes are possible, there is much to be optimistic about as well.
Virtually the entire world experienced the power of these new technologies during COVID-19. The relative ease with which people in many countries could remain at home, work, study, get their provisions, etc., mitigated complete financial disasters at the time.
Overall, humanity benefited from the Industrial and Post-Industrial Revolutions, many moving from hard manual labor in the fields to marginally better jobs in factories and gradually into safer and/or more cerebral ones. The number of horses, however, declined almost 80 percent—from 20 million in 1900 to 4.5 million in 1959—as machines replaced most of their functions. They could not adapt and became victims of the unstoppable power of productivity gains. The Cognitive Revolution is real, is happening now, and is happening without direction. It is being led by a small group of people—those with the greatest ability to identify opportunities and pursue their self-interest— and the technologies they are building are made to their vision, largely unsupervised, and predominantly for their own gain. We need many constituents—lawmakers, frontier technology builders, educators, investors, and users, etc.—to step forward and be vocal. We cannot overemphasize the need for active and public debate. Since there is no single optimal pathway, much future leadership will come from unexpected sources, and, unfortunately, many outcomes will result simply from trial and error. However, if we want to avoid real disasters, we cannot afford to “ostrich” and bury our heads in the sand. Otherwise, we could become the next horse.
Frontier technologies will, like all technologies, mirror their founders and, until sentient, will operate on the principles by which they have been created. Whoever controls the technology controls our future. Given the vast implications, we all deserve a say; we all need to take ownership.
1998: So Last Century
“We gain our first measure of intelligence when we first admit our own ignorance.”
—Socrates
Every second, Google processes more than 100,000 search queries. Without technology, all Google employees combined probably couldn't manage this task in a decade. Behind every response, immensely powerful computers drive the process, constantly becoming more efficient by learning about us, monitoring our every move, and serving up bespoke responses. Each new piece of information helps enhance its efficiency. The goal is gradually to develop omniscience.
Computers have already begun to evolve their own cognitive ability and, in some instances, already do it better than we can. The programmers at Google merely code a framework that allows computers to catalog a huge universe of online data, together with the rules to capture both our detailed personal information and our every online move, and the search engines deliver results that iteratively become better and better. On the positive side, the search answers (and the products shown to us) generally better reflect our needs. The downside—computers and their handlers literally decide what each of us see. On an individual basis, technology is already the arbiter of what we should know or be allowed to know.
While you read the previous paragraphs, Google processed around three-and-a-half million searches, with each one learning a bit more about how to better increase Google's search superiority. Your computer and your phone are already not only deciding what you see and how you see it, but also working to ensure there are many things you just cannot do without.
Google was founded in 1998. So within just 25 years, the entire way we learn has changed. At that time, Jeff Bezos’ Amazon, a public company for just a year, was valued at a mere $10 billion; Mark Zuckerberg was just 13 and celebrating his bar mitzvah; Steve Jobs had just returned to Apple; there was no meaningful online e-commerce, nor Internet searching, and no smartphones; shoppers went out to shop, and computers and the huge systems behind them knew next to nothing about any of us as individuals.
Today, we have multiple new frontier technologies. As well as AI, this new generation of general purpose technologies includes additive manufacturing (3D and 4D printing), augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR), blockchain, always-on communications (such as 5G and soon 6G), cryptocurrency and tokenization, decentralization, Internet of Things (IoT), and robotics and automation. All verge on being “supercharged” with quantum computing. The rate of adoption has been increasing across almost every discipline.
Within a few years, quantum computing might be able to break RSA encryption, the public-key cryptosystem that is widely used for securing all our data. Without countermeasures, this will render the entire systems driving our economies vulnerable. Quantum will be able to retrospectively decrypt every bit of information ever securely stored and access every secure device, in every network, no matter how remote, around the world.
It will probably take a decade to adapt encryption for quantum computing; even if we start now, it is a race against time. Various countries, most visibly China, are believed to be amassing huge warehouses of secure data on everyone and everything globally. These cannot yet be decrypted, but as soon as quantum computing solutions become available, they will become transparent. Our data cannot be taken back. Think of a stranger owning a “copy” of your safe containing all your private details, just waiting for the key to be delivered. This type of power should keep us all awake at night.
Data security is merely the tip of the iceberg. Technology now allows Big Tech and governments to know (and soon to anticipate) almost all our moves. Our phones silently allowed track and trace to “ping” us when we came close to someone suspected of having COVID-19; our appliances can monitor our speech and actions; government and nongovernment actors are positioned to manipulate our elections. What is clear, for better or worse, is we are now dependent on many technologies and incapable of operating without them. These technologies will soon grow to include domains such as centrally controlled digital currencies, vehicles, medical and financial data, enhanced movement tracking, vast realms of behavioral science, and countless others. Every one of these can have enormous individual and collective benefits. But they can also be the source of enormous harm. Imagine any bad actor (or even a government) with this level of power—able to use all our data to identify, manipulate, stop/redirect a vehicle, or even eliminate assets, all at the push of a button. None of this is science fiction. As you read this, all these technologies are in development or already deployed to some extent.
What is next? By 2040, frontier technologies are likely to be thousands of times more powerful than today. And there are many innovators out there already trying hard to create what could become a “species” that is, by design, superior to us. For instance, in 2019 alone, Amazon spent $36 billion on research and development (R&D) to develop human replacement technologies, from robots to smart home assistants. This investment is greater than the GDPs of 34 countries.
The world as we know it—public and private—has long followed a linear path that grows incrementally and relatively manageably and stably; frontier technologies, however, are accelerating exponentially. The battle ahead is between our linear trajectory and technology's exponential one.
Humans 2.0
“Talent hits a target no one else can hit. Genius hits a target no one else can see.”
—Schopenhauer
While much attention over the past few decades has focused on robots replacing human labor, now that frontier technologies are reaching the general purpose stage, there is a distinct shift toward computers replacing cognitive jobs rather than physical ones. COVID-19 accelerated the movement toward working from home; ironically, if you can work from home, you become more digitally replaceable than if you are in a job that requires direct physical and/or human interaction. Despite the Industrial Revolution targeting manual work, the physical roles that remain are often more robot-immune, requiring dexterity, creativity, and empathy, or are more entangled in the human way of thinking. For the moment, robot creators and developers are also finding it hard to replicate many of the remaining physical skills. In contrast, computers relentlessly improve their abilities to deliver on cognitive tasks, as this is a new domain for them. They can now read and write contracts, trade financial services, manage your accounts, answer telephone calls, organize your day, and do many human tasks. And, as many of these human roles are already performed remotely, swapping them out with computers can be staged and seamless. When was the last time you visited a travel agent? Which professions are next? Much of what attorneys, accountants, bankers, insurance agents, and bureaucracies in general do is repetitive and codifiable. And, as Wright's Law captures, technologies get cheaper with scale. Humans do not.
Devices
“He wears a mask, and his face grows to fit it.”
—George Orwell
Twenty years ago, mobile phones were slow and cumbersome, used only for calls and texting. Today they are powerful computers as well as working and entertainment devices that are seemingly always in hand. We are not only addicted to them but actually dependent on them. And their functionality expands daily. We check our smartphones right before bed, when we wake up, and we carry them all day, almost as an extension of ourselves. They are indispensable, having become our core interface with the world, combining the physical with the digital. Creators seamlessly and constantly add new features, making obsolete so many products we have grown used to—radios, music players, maps, etc.—dematerializing our world. And soon, they will not need to be handheld, or perhaps even optional—we will access them through our glasses, contact lenses, or even implants. They can and will be permanently “on,” constantly assisting us, while at the same time continuously assessing us as well.
As frontier technologies become more general purpose, new products can be created by people who are not experts in the field, and eventually by virtually anybody. In fact, soon, frontier technologies will even be able to independently build products and eventually re-create themselves. Many newly deployed technologies have been developed (or acquired) by a small number of very large companies, mostly founded by brainy, well-intentioned young entrepreneurs, without meaningful regulatory control. Now, there are also millions of new entrepreneurs around the world experimenting with even more powerful technologies—once again virtually without oversight. The first group we know something about; the second we do not. The past quarter of a century has been the Wild West. Who can we entrust to be the new sheriff in town?
A snapshot of where the world is now should encourage readers to think about the future—harnessing the benefits of technology, while at the same time becoming more cognizant of the underlying dangers. None of us is too small to have our voice heard. As the Dalai Lama neatly summed up, “If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito.”
People Going Binary—Computers Going Quantum
“Being wrong might hurt you a bit, but being slow will kill you.”
—Jeff Bezos
While innovators are building a new and potentially superior intelligence in their own image, who is looking out for our well-being? Unfortunately, even those leaders and policymakers who believe they have our best interests in mind rarely have the knowledge, power, and capacity to deliver. And, from a practical basis, most are required to reach a consensus; the time this takes almost guarantees not only that they miss the target, but that the target they are aiming at is no longer even there. In most democracies, the stark reality is as follows:
Those who make the decisions need to be re-elected—meaning popularity is frequently more important than action.
As elected officials are often not around to see the results of their inaction (or actions), they need not fear being held accountable.
Our leaders’ seeming inability (or unwillingness) to look out for us is partially our own fault. The general public increasingly demands binary, yes/no answers, and instant results. Our governments (and media) look to deliver just that. Yet most issues are immensely complex and nuanced and often extend over timeframes that exceed their times in office. Yet by abdicating their responsibility to engage in what is really going on, our leaders are simply allowing technologies and their creators to become increasingly powerful and appear more than willing to just wait and see where the chips fall.
Humans’ historical ability to be flexible in processes and use diverse information sources is narrowing, becoming more unequivocal and dogmatic. In some ways, this can be linked to computerization—when we enter a search or program, we expect a result. And whereas Google provides a list of suggestions, ChatGPT now gives us a single answer. While humans tend to be analog in our thinking and have historically incorporated different viewpoints and accepted multiple outcomes, computers have been only digital—designed only to recognize and process ones and zeros. It is indeed ironic, as humans appear to move toward binary thinking, computers, with quantum methods and their ability to handle and accept multiple states simultaneously, may be moving toward the analog.
One result of our move from analog to binary thinking is the clear polarization we are seeing in many countries around the world. If we consider some of the more complex and challenging subjects of today—climate change, gender and race equality, the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic, etc.—we demand more and more definitive answers to questions that cannot be answered definitively without a blithe willingness to ignore evidence that does not fit the outcomes we want. This results in governments, the media, and other information sources deciding that unambiguous mistruths are better and more valued than the actual truth, which is often more nuanced and problematic. This hinders much discourse needed to deliver real answers to the real problems.
This trend must be challenged. The first step is to acknowledge that data is neither uniquely the solution nor the problem; it is a complicated combination of both. While much of our discussion concerns events that may be 10, 20, or even 50 years away, the first steps toward this future are being taken now. And the world ahead of us will depend on what we do today. Like a skyscraper, its strength is based on its foundations, which will never be seen after construction. It is we who are present at the foundation stage for many technologies, but it will be future generations who most enjoy or suffer from their output. Human nature sees most of us leaving decisions until the last minute, even though the closer we get to the point of no return, the greater the cost, complexity, and pressure. This is particularly true with frontier technologies, where the potential set of outcomes becomes exponentially more difficult to anticipate and manage over time.
We all have a part to play. Let's simply start by monitoring and limiting what information we hand over to others to potentially exploit. Let's more actively challenge the information we are presented by “echo chamber” news and information services, powered by these technologies. Let's think through (and even act on) exactly who we expect to make these decisions on our behalf, even at the most local level. And make a concerted effort to learn more about these technologies.
The more we know, the more diversity of thought we can bring to creating, challenging, and using them.
Notes
1
Beth Waterhouse, “PBS Online: Death of the Dream,” PBS (Public Broadcasting Service), accessed April 5, 2023,
www.pbs.org/ktca/farmhouses/sustainable_future.html
.
2
Anand S. Rao and Gerard Verweij, “PWC's Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Sizing the Prize,” PwC, 2017,
www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pdf
.
3
“Topic: Coronavirus: Impact on the Global Economy,” Statista (Statista Research Department, January 17, 2023),
www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impact-on-the-global-economy/#topicOverview
.
4
Vicky McKeever, “The Coronavirus Is Expected to Have Cost 400 Million Jobs in the Second Quarter, UN Labor Agency Estimates,” CNBC, June 30, 2020,
www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/coronavirus-expected-to-cost-400-million-jobs-in-the-second-quarter.html
.
Suggested Reading
In this book, we have provided explanations of a number of key frontier technologies. Our goal was to provide a baseline from which readers could then better follow many of the issues and problems we discuss.
In a rapidly changing world, this type of effort is a moving target. Many of the technologies we cover are evolving at an accelerating rate. There is simply not the space to cover many other technologies that might be extraordinarily important as well.
Therefore, rather than providing a static bibliography, we think it is more useful to create a living document of articles and pieces you might like to read. We have created the web page www.edenbase.com/unsupervised for those documents, which we will update over time.
PART IImportant Technologies You Cannot Ignore
“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do.”
—Mark Twain
The Cognitive Revolution is happening. It is a period of exploration as bold and daring as the eras of great explorers in the past. It is being propelled by the rapidly accelerating and iterative cycle of human thought and invention. Humanity conceptualizes, builds, and uses, which leads to the next round of conceptualization, building, and use, and on and on and on…. The difference today is that much of the technology being created has the capability itself of continuing to propel the cycle independently—with or without direct human intervention. These technologies have evolved on the back of silicon chips and computer power, doubling every two years (an exponential increase). Yet as new materials and applications become fully integrated, these exponential increases will actually seem small. At the same time, our own cognitive ability is increasing linearly, if at all. The clear implication is the potential for computers to rapidly reach or even surpass many human capabilities, certainly on a skill-by-skill basis, as machines did vis-à-vis our physical abilities during the Industrial Revolution.
Perhaps the hardest thing to fully comprehend and internalize today is that we are already beyond the period of mere imagination—vast numbers of practical applications already influence and, in some cases, dominate our daily lives. The technologies behind these changes are immensely varied and it would require an encyclopedic tome to encompass them all. The following, however, are the key building blocks to an untold number of far-reaching applications. And these technologies are built on huge data sets that existing and future technologies are capturing and will exploit:
Collection and storage.
As the amount of available data on virtually any topic is so enormous, only computers can now capture and store it all. And, once captured and stored, even if used properly today, data can be misused tomorrow, as data does not die. For example, massive amounts of information were collected, both transparently and otherwise, to minimize the dangers surrounding both 9/11 and COVID-19. Although some of this has certainly been helpful, as the immediate crises waned, vast amounts of data remain, much of which was previously assumed to be private—even sacrosanct. How will that data be used? How is it being used now? And which entities around the world have encrypted versions and are just waiting for the key? Unfortunately,
ex ante
, there is no way of predicting what becomes of all this sensitive information and what intrusions might result.
Yet government and corporate collection of data is only a fraction of the total amount being “created.” Much (possibly most) of all accessible personal and professional information has been offered up voluntarily by individuals and organizations. It began with text, then photos and video, and now genetic information to trace ancestry. What next?
Personal communications and daily online activity.
Originally through an extensive use of emails and texts, then through a love affair (perhaps addiction) with emerging social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, etc.), and now through an endless array of ubiquitous applications (Siri, Alexa, Google, Amazon, etc.), an unimaginably vast trove of information is being generated that can be used in untold applications going forward. Most of those responsible for publicly (or privately) posting information, using search engines, or engaging in online transactions, have little sensitivity or even interest in how useful this data might be to others in the future and for what purposes it may be used.
In the educational and professional world, technology has allowed for much simpler creation and sharing of information. The reasons are generally benign, but the rate of growth has been astounding. Many organizations, long before the pandemic, saw great value in group communication. COVID-19's evolution of work from home (WFH) massively accelerated this process, forcing corporations and individuals to find ways of being in effective contact and finding ways of managing processes and developing solutions in ways many had not fully explored before. Without a doubt, this has created vast amounts of recorded data that would not have existed if traditional communications through regular in-person meetings, classroom interactions, chats by the coffee machine, beers after work, etc., had not been (temporarily?) abandoned.
And, while the amount of available data has already mushroomed, the powerful techniques of collecting even more and storing it have grown at an even greater rate.
Management and use.
Up until this point, humans have been the primary actor in this phase. Either we have manipulated and used the data ourselves or created algorithms to do so. We are, however, on the verge of a major shift of process/power, to where computers become able to manage data themselves and, initially through “machine learning,” take over some of the decisions on when and how the data is used (without any direct human intervention). Is this good or bad?
We are bombarded with data. State and nonstate actors use arrays of “bots” to overwhelm us with contradictory and even fake data. Governments have entire divisions to use technology to collect and manipulate data to affect the behavior of both citizens and foreign nationals. The use of unsubstantiated or “carefully selected” data by questionable or self-anointed experts results in bad/biased analyses that clearly end in suboptimal actions and results. Would a more systematized approach run by computers with built-in checks and balances be a potentially better solution? In concept, perhaps, but circular logic brings us back to our current reality that behind every computer program is “someone” who needs to write the code or create the protocols to allow the system to generate future iterations. Yet the effective anonymity of these “someones” is astonishing, given the effective power they wield.
Our goal with this book is not to be an encyclopedic resource on innovative and disruptive technologies, which is impossible, as they are moving so fast. Rather, we aim to shine a light on the development and application of technologies you have probably heard about that are accelerating exponentially and already impacting us in uncountable ways—ways that will possibly change our entire lives in a timeframe many will find surprisingly short. Our greatest concern is that, despite people having a general familiarity with many of these areas, extremely few are fully aware of the following:
The breadth and scope of these technologies and their impacts.
The extraordinary concentration of power in a few individuals around the world who, at present, operate with remarkably few constraints.
To fully engage, it is useful to understand the underpinnings of these technologies, associated domains, and constructs.
The first section is divided into four parts:
Foundational technologies.
The intelligent systems behind the technological revolution. These include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and their communication systems.
Enabling technologies.
The tools that will allow the foundational technologies to rapidly deliver change. These include blockchain, decentralized autonomous organizations, tokenization, and cryptocurrencies.
Consumer-facing hardware deployments of foundational technologies.
Our focus is primarily on technologies already in use (or becoming general purpose). There are many areas that could change the world, but if the time frame is likely to be decades out, they are outside this scope. These include robotics, automation, Internet of Things, virtual reality, and augmented reality.
Important uses of technologies you cannot ignore.
There is probably no sector that does not use, directly or indirectly, at least one of the technologies described in the book. We have chosen three very different areas, two vital to the future of humanity (energy and healthcare) and one little focused on or understood but with significant potential ramifications (the metaverse).
We see this as similar to a marathon. The fastest runners are lined up near the starting line and know what to expect; first-timers are at the back and can take significant time even to get to and cross the starting line. We just want everyone to be able to finish comfortably.
CHAPTER 1Foundational Technologies
“Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.”
—Albert Einstein
Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced “always-on” communications are early-stage technologies that are set to completely change the way we think, interact, and operate. They will lead to the complete re-imagining of the way we interact with technology and one another through the reinvention of access points—our devices. They will quickly be able to replicate human processes and improve them to allow us to solve problems we can only dream of today.
Artificial Intelligence
“Creativity is intelligence having fun.”
—Albert Einstein
Artificial intelligence represents either the underpinning or, at least, an important tool set for the rest of these technologies and in topics well beyond. An obvious first question is, what is artificial intelligence? A currently acceptable definition might be, by simulating human cognitive functions, the ability of a computer or robotic system not only to undertake tasks conducted by human beings, but to learn from the accomplishment of these tasks and improve their execution over time. And, over the last few years, there has been enormous progress in the ability to deliver on this. For instance, Google's new language model, PaLM, can explain why a joke is funny, a key characteristic of human's common sense and reasoning; OpenAI's latest system, ChatGPT, can have conversations and answer queries; and, DALL·E 2 can create a photorealistic image from a text prompt such as “draw a cat driving a car.” A vast number of programs and apps use AI.
What makes a functional definition of artificial intelligence so hard is the necessary combination of several technologies that create and develop computers simulating human levels of intelligence. In the beginning, it referred to technologies that could pass the Turing test—i.e., whether a computer, in a conversation with a human, can avoid having that person realize it is not human. Although this definition remains relevant today, using a range of tools, products, and services (e.g., machine learning and natural language processing) AI has expanded to include many other features of our brains.
AI breaks down into three principal categories:
Weak or narrow AI.
This is the most common and is designed to tackle a single/specific problem. Some very widespread apps like Alexa and Siri are based on this.
Strong or artificial general intelligence (AGI).
AGI is the theoretical ability to perform, comprehend, and learn any human intellectual task and to be able to continue to learn contextually in a way similar to the human mind.
Artificial super intelligence (ASI).
While still theoretical, ASI is the ability to surpass the human mind and, as posited by Stuart Russell and Peter Norvig, be able to think and act not like humans but rationally (however, that might be defined). Too many dystopian futures (
The Terminator
,
The Matrix
, etc.) come to mind to make this outcome seem in any way appealing.
There are currently two primary theoretical approaches to AI: deterministic and stochastic.
The deterministic
