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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
THINKERS 50 TOP 10 BEST NEW MANAGEMENT BOOKS 2025
INTERNATIONAL BOOK AWARDS FINALIST
Harness emerging technologies for business success while putting the human first
In What Matters Next: A Leader's Guide to Making Human-Friendly Tech Decisions in a World That's Moving Too Fast, renowned author and consultant Kate O'Neill delivers a roadmap to achieve business growth, transformation, and innovation through the use of emerging technologies—but crucially, in a human-centric manner that benefits both business and humanity. Drawing on her experience working with organizations like Google, Yale, and the United Nations, O'Neill offers a unique blend of strategic guidance, ethical considerations, and practical application to help organizations not just survive, but thrive through bold and empathetic leadership.
In this book, readers will learn about:
- Making better strategic decisions by moving from questions, to insights, to “Bankable Foresights”
- Creating a model that aligns focus, purpose, values, and resources across an organization
- Understanding the intersection and potential harmony of human knowledge and machine intelligence
- Ensuring digital transformation and innovation efforts frame the future in human terms
What Matters Next is an essential read for all business leaders and individuals interested in the impact of emerging technology on business and humanity and seeking to effect positive change for the benefit of all.
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Seitenzahl: 418
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2025
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Table of Figures
Preface
INTRODUCTION A Brighter Future Requires Better Decisions
Our Journey Continues
The Now-Next Continuum
Harms of Action vs. Inaction
Commitment to Purpose
Freeing Ourselves for the Future
The Next Challenge
Future Ready, Tech Ready, Human Ready
PART I: A World That’s Moving Too Fast
CHAPTER 1: The Conflicting Challenges of Leading in the Too-Fast World
The Extreme Approaches to Strategic Leadership
Longtermism: Overstepping the Present
Shortsightedness: Sacrificing the Future
Integrating the Extremes
Transformation and Innovation
The Challenge of Acceleration
The Dawn of the Acceleration Era
Acceleration as a Force
Acceleration as a Cost
Balancing Economic Growth and Human Well-Being
Acceleration as a Philosophy
Move Fast, but Don’t Break Humanity
Ethical Acceleration: The Need for Balanced Speed
Missteps and Oversights
The Human Impact of Tech Decisions
Correcting Course
Avoiding the Pitfalls of Longtermism
The Challenge of Scale and Connectedness
Making Human-Aligned Decisions at Scale
The Two Scales
The Power of Connectedness
Avoiding the Pitfalls of Shortsightedness
The Consequences of Shortsightedness
Insight and Foresight
Asking Meaningful Questions
The Challenge of Hesitation
Half-Hearted Commitments
The Rippling Consequences of Failure
Commit to Evolving
The Clarifying Power of the Now-Next Continuum
Decision Tool: Questions, Insights, Foresights, Adaptive Strategy
CHAPTER 2: Future Visioning
Vision and Agility: The Netflix Miracle
The Power of Leading with Vision in a Too-Fast World
Uncertainty Is Everywhere
The Paradox and Principle of Uncertainty
The Human Experience and Meaning Making
From Uncertainty to Probability
The Practicality of Probability
Tackling Uncertainty as a Team
Questions for Future Visioning
Clarifying Questions
Preparatory Questions
Prioritizing Questions
The Calibration Question
From Questions to Actions
Future-Ready, Not “Future-Proof”
What Future-Readiness Requires
The Reality of Future-Ready Leadership
Balancing Present and Future
Strategic Optimism
Purposeful Future Visioning Leads to Strategic Clarity
Tools of Future Visioning: Prediction, Forecasting, Insights, Foresights
PART II: Making Human-Friendly Tech Decisions
CHAPTER 3: Future-Ready Decision-Making at Scale
Deciding, Fast and Slow
Slow Down to Speed Up
From Quick Fixes to Insight-Driven Strategies
Deciding to Decide Better
Guiding Future-Ready Decision-Making with the Insights-Foresights Model
The Inquiry Stage: Meaningful Framing Questions
The Power of Meaningful Questions
I Don’t Know
The Anatomy of a Good Question
Shaping the Future with Questions
Tool: Mining for Meaningful Questions
The Gathering Stage: Collecting Partial Answers
The Gift of Partial Answers
From Conflicting Answers to Insights
Finding Insights Amid Partial Answers
The Synthesis Stage: Timeless Insights
Timeless Thinking with Insights
What Are Insights, Really?
The Power of Insights in Decision-Making
Insights, Foresights, and Empathy
A Tool for Your Journey: The Insights Inventory
The Context Mapping Stage: Context, Externalities, and Trends
Monitoring and Understanding External Trends
Trends as Bankable Foresights
Tracking Externalities
The Decision Point Stage: Timely Actions and Bankable Foresights
The Beauty of Bankable Foresights
Insights Inform Foresights
Bonus Step: Using AI for Brainstorming
Circling Back
Data, Insights, and Intuition
The Deceptive Duality of Data
False Equivalencies: Correlation versus Causation
Cherry-Picking: Seeing What We Want to See
Trustworthy Data
Measure and Anticipate
Ethical Decision-Making in an AI-Led World
Balancing Optimization and User Needs
The Limits of AI Systems in Decision-Making
Implications across Sectors
Decision Tool: Building to Bankable Foresights
CHAPTER 4: Through-Line Thinking
The Harms of Action vs. the Harms of Inaction
Existing Models for Ethical Decision Making
Through-Line Thinking: Working through Past Actions to Understand the Future
Ecosystem Effects and Through-Line Thinking
Misalignment and Consequences at Scale
Ecosystem Effects in Tech Decisions
Unintended or Unanticipated? Unexpected or Unforeseen?
Perverse Incentives
Tech Mongooses
Misconceptions About Ethics Meet the AI Age
Demystifying How We Talk and Think About AI
Knowing Our Own Minds
Thinking Language
The Embodiment of Intelligence
Applying the Strengths of Human and Machine Intelligence
What Humans Decide vs. What Machines Decide
Why Decisions Involving AI and Data Systems Are Complex
Technical Debt, Societal Technical Debt, Ethical Debt, Decision Debt
Ethical AI Requires Transparency and Explainability
The Importance of Explainability in AI Innovation
Explainability Beyond Bias
Ask the Hard Questions
Transparency in AI
Dehumanizing Implications
The Accountability Gap
AI’s Promise and Peril
Human-Centered AI along the Now-Next Continuum
Data Systems at Scale
Putting Privacy in Perspective
Digital Twins and Deepfakes
Trusting AI to Know When AI Can’t Be Trusted
The Ethics of Personhood
Whack-a-Mole Regulations
Ahead of Regulations
The Climate Footprint of AI Systems
Now What? Now-Next
A Call to Action for Human-Friendly Tech Leadership
Decision Tool: Harms Consideration Checklist
CHAPTER 5: Ethical Acceleration
Harnessing Technology for Human Betterment
Tech that Uplifts Humanity
Language as a Key to Meaning
Language as a Tool of Strategic Purpose and Clarity
AI, Meaning, and Probability
Language Is a Human Tool for Meaning
The Role of Improbability in Meaning
The Ongoing Importance of Meaning-Making
External vs. Internal Purpose
We Can’t Leave Meaning up to Machines
Output vs. Outcome
Making Tech Human-Friendly
Creativity
Creativity in Constraint
Creative Blocks
The Songwriting Approach
The Boldness to Rethink
Curiosity
Outsourcing Thought
Cycles of Influence
Curiosity: The Antidote to AI Malaise
Collaboration and Play
Designing for the Human Scale
Balancing Automation and Empathy
Automation beyond Efficiency
The New First Rule of Technology
Universal Basic Meaning
The Purposeful Role of Business Leadership
Future Visioning
From Amsterdam to Your Organization
Tech Humanist Leadership for Ethical Acceleration
The Path to Purpose-Driven Growth
Ethical Acceleration in Practice
Navigating Setbacks
Growth without Purpose
Purpose, Principles, and Profit
Learning to See Tomorrow
What Matters/What Is Likely to Matter: Future-Readiness through Agility
Decision Tool: What’s Your “Gift for Tomorrow” Project?
Note
CHAPTER 6: Future-Ready Evolution
Jeans 2.0
Unpacking the Meaning of Transformation
Personal Transformations: The Heart of Change
Professional Transformations: The Business of Change
Experience-Driven Transformation
Beyond Digital Transformation
Why Might Transformation Projects Fail?
Digital Transformation Canvas 2.0
Transformation at Scale
Moving Past Reactivity toward Foresight
Siemens Chengdu Factory’s Foresight
From Reactive to Proactive
Crafting Future-Ready Strategy with Through-Line Thinking
Pivoting Harmful Inaction into Harm-Reducing Action at Scale
A Costly Scandal
The Road to Redemption
Beware of Creating an IT Dumping Ground
Driving Responsible Scaling and Meaningful Innovation
Lessons Learned for Future-Readiness
Transformation and Ethical Considerations
Designing for Billions, Thinking for One
The Power of Active Empathy
Casting the Right Net
Structured Solutions for Specific Problems
Balancing Specialization and Generalization
Work Transformation
Cycle of Inquiry
Optimization and Integration
Integration: The Bigger Picture
Practical Steps for Leaders
What Matters: Climate Action
What Matters: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Decision Tool: Reflective Checklist for Meaningful Innovation
PART III: A Leader’s Guide to the Future
CHAPTER 7: The Leadership That Matters Next
The Invisible Currency of Work
Trust in the Digitally Transformed Age
How We Show Up for Each Other
Meaningful Measures of Work and Clear Expectations
A Culture of Empathy
Leading with Perspective and Empathy
Empathy Coupled with Curiosity for Tech Humanist Leadership
Empathy in Decision-Making
The Role of Empathetic Leadership in a Tech-Heavy World
Surveillance and the Paradox of Trust
Leading toward a Trustworthy Future
Building Trust into Tech: Actionable Steps
How Much Management Should We Delegate to Algorithms?
Future of Work Considerations
Humans and Machines in Harmony
Purpose-Driven Workforces
The Future Workplace
The Human Experience in Virtual Workplaces
Preparing for the Near-Future Workplace
Integrating AI Meaningfully into Future-Ready Human Work
Participative Leadership
Influence without Authority
Future-Ready Decision-Making for Leadership Legacy
Decision Tool: An Interactive Reflection on Purposeful Leadership
Conclusion: Building a More Human-Friendly World
Adopting Tech Humanist Principles to Lead the Way to What Matters Next
The Brighter Futures Challenge
Aligning with History
A Tech Humanist’s Guide to the Future
APPENDIX: Creating Your “What Matters Next” Action Plan
References
About the Companion Website
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 The two extremes of future-ready flaws.
Figure 1.2 The now-next continuum.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 The now-next continuum and outcomes.
Figure 2.2 Future visioning.
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 The insights-foresights model.
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Harms of action and inaction along the now-next continuum.
Figure 4.2 Skills of through-line thinking.
Figure 4.3 The now-next continuum and ecosystem effects.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Meaning in communication.
Figure 5.2 Tech Humanist leadership.
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Strategy Articulation Canvas for Human-Centric Digital Transforma...
Figure 6.2 From transformation to innovation along the now-next continuum.
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Table of Figures
Preface
Introduction A Brighter Future Requires Better Decisions
Begin Reading
Conclusion: Building a More Human-Friendly World
Appendix: Creating Your “What Matters Next” Action Plan
References
About the Companion Website
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Index
End User License Agreement
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Praise for What Matters Next
“Kate O’Neill has the unique ability to take the speed out of a world that is moving fast, sometimes too fast, and allow our brains to absorb things in digestible bites. Decision-making is difficult with so many variables affecting the outcomes. What Matters Next is a must-read for that reason.”
—Faisal Hoque,#1 Wall Street Journal best-selling author of REINVENT and founder of Shadoka
“Kate O’Neill’s What Matters Next is a transformative guide for leaders navigating the intersection of technology and humanity. With actionable insights and a compelling vision, O’Neill equips readers to encode human-centric values into our technological future. An absolute must-read for anyone looking to stand out and make a difference in our digital world.”
—Dorie Clark,Wall Street Journal best-selling author of The Long Game and executive education faculty at Columbia Business School
“In the ongoing and often exhausting debates about AI and the future, Kate O’Neill is a voice you can trust. What Matters Next is not just a masterful playbook for better decision-making. It’s a catalyst for how to show up, lead, and champion humanity–today, tomorrow, and in the years to come.
—April Rinne,Global Futurist and Author of Flux: 8 Superpowers for Thriving in Constant Change
“In What Matters Next, Kate O’Neill doesn’t just provide answers—she provokes the right questions. It’s a guide for leaders who understand that in the race to innovate, we must preserve our purpose and the integrity of our decisions. A timely and necessary reflection on leadership ethics in a tech-driven world.”
—Dan Pontefract,Leadership Strategist and author of Work-Life Bloom
“If you’ve ever thought that tech, especially AI, would swallow up humanity, Kate O’Neill just wrote the treatise on how leaders can avoid exactly that. What Matters Next will help you identify what’s most important to you, to those you lead, and in the future you want to create. This is the book that will lead you to sharper decisions and, better yet, meaningful outcomes.”
—Carla Johnson,Innovation Architect, RE:Think Labs
“What Matters Next answers the critical question of how leaders can make tech decisions that are both ethically grounded and strategically sound in a world that’s moving too fast. Kate O’Neill tackles the problem of balancing rapid technological advancement with the need to prioritize human well-being. What I appreciate most about Kate’s work is her real-world approach. She’s not just theorizing—she’s drawing from deep experience in the tech industry and a genuine concern for the human side of innovation. Kate is focused on helping leaders navigate the “Now-Next Continuum,” making decisions that are not only tech-ready but also human-ready. This kind of forward thinking, grounded in empathy and strategic foresight, is exactly what we need more of in today’s fast-paced world.
—Dr. Diane Hamilton,Author of Curiosity Unleashed
“Kate O’Neill has given us practical solutions to the fast-paced decision-making challenges that leaders face when wanting to move quickly while still making ethical decisions. With the tools in What Matters Next, uncertainty doesn’t have to cause anxiety.”
—Caleb Gardner,Founding Partner at 18 Coffees, and former Digital Director for BarackObama.com
“What Matters Next by Kate O’Neill is a game-changing book for leaders navigating our complex, fast-paced world. She presents a powerful framework that challenges us to pause, reflect, and embrace the tension of uncertainty with curiosity and courage.
Her innovative model of insight and foresight equips leaders with an invaluable tool to cultivate a mindset of inquiry, enabling them to make decisions that not only address immediate challenges but also shape a better future for all. This book is an essential read for visionary leaders who understand that true progress comes from asking the right questions and embracing the journey of discovery.
This book is nothing short of transformative—it’s a beacon for those seeking to lead with purpose, empathy, and foresight in an increasingly unpredictable world. What Matters Next is a road map for creating meaningful change and lasting impact. For any leader committed to making a difference, this is your essential guide to navigating the complexities of tomorrow, today.”
—Jeanette Bronée,Culture Strategist and Author of The Self-Care Mindset
“The heartbeat of business will be decided by how well we can blend technology with our humanity. Never has this been a more pressing issue than today—as AI teeters on the brink of changing not only how we define ‘work’ but the very essence of ‘intelligence.’ One of the best bridges for this gap is Kate O’Neill. What Matters Next allows us to pump the brakes on the speed of change… to ask the right questions and develop the right road maps so that we have the best future possible.
—Mitch Joel,founder ThinkersOne, author of Six Pixels of Separation and CTRL ALT Delete.
“In the roller coaster of modern work, What Matters Next shows us how to move from hanging on for dear life to steering the course with confidence. Kate beautifully breaks down why the future of work isn’t just coming—it’s practically sprinting towards us—and she gives us the playbook for making tech decisions that are both human-friendly and future-proof. If you want to stop playing catch-up and start making decisions that matter, this book is your new best friend!”
—Henna Pryor,author of Good Awkward
About Thinkers50
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Founded in 2001, the Thinkers50 definitive ranking of management thinkers is published every two years. The Thinkers50 Distinguished Achievement Awards, which recognize the very best in management thinking and practice, have been described by the Financial Times as the “Oscars of management thinking.”
Since 2016, the Thinkers50 Radar has been identifying emerging thinkers with the potential to make a significant contribution to management theory and practice. The Thinkers50 Booklists of Management Classics and Best New Management Books, introduced in 2022, highlight the most influential management books past and present, as selected by the Thinkers50 Community.
WHAT MATTERS NEXT
A LEADER’S GUIDE TO MAKING Human-Friendly TECH DECISIONS IN A WORLD THAT’S MOVING TOO FAST
KATE O’NEILL
Copyright © 2025 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved, including rights for text and data mining and training of artificial technologies or similar technologies.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.Published simultaneously in Canada.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: O’Neill, Kate (Technology expert), author.
Title: What matters next : a leader’s guide to making human-friendly tech decisions in a world that’s moving too fast / Kate O’Neill.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2025] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2024036554 (print) | LCCN 2024036555 (ebook) | ISBN 9781394296422 (hardback) | ISBN 9781394296446 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781394296439 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Business enterprises—Technological innovations. | Technological innovations—Moral and ethical aspects.
Classification: LCC HD45 .O54 2025 (print) | LCC HD45 (ebook) | DDC 658.4/03—dc23/eng/20240924
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2024036554
Subjects: LCSH: Business enterprises—Technological innovations. |
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2024036555
Cover Design: Paul McCarthy
To all the tech humanists <3
Table of Figures
Figure 1.1 The two extremes of future-ready flaws
Figure 1.2 The now-next continuum
Figure 2.1 The now-next continuum and outcomes
Figure 2.2 Future visioning
Figure 3.1 The insights-foresights model
Figure 4.1 Harms of action and inaction along the now-next continuum
Figure 4.2 Skills of through-line thinking
Figure 4.3 The now-next continuum and ecosystem effects
Figure 5.1 Meaning in communication
Figure 5.2 Tech Humanist leadership
Figure 6.1 Strategy Articulation Canvas for Human-Centric Digital Transformation
Figure 6.2 From transformation to innovation along the now-next continuum
Preface
This book is about how certain kinds of decisions matter more than others. In my own life, one of the biggies was moving across the country in the mid-1990s to Silicon Valley. Picture a young woman in a Toyota Camry, windows rolled down, driving aimlessly around the Bay Area. The air is crisp and carries the scent of eucalyptus trees. Alanis Morrissette’s Jagged Little Pill CD plays on repeat. As I navigate my way through this strange new landscape, I can’t help but notice the billboards advertising high-tech services such as computer chip design conversion. I recall one to this day: “MIPS 2 RISC.” It strikes me then for the first time that billboard advertisements really say a lot about what uniquely defines a place’s character.
The job that had lured me west to California from Chicago was in San Jose at Toshiba America Electronic Components. Fresh from my undergraduate degree in languages and linguistics—German major, Russian and linguistics double minor, concentration in international studies—I was embarking on what seemed like a pretty unexpected journey. The career I had envisioned was in translation and interpretation. I had dreams of someday working in one of those booths at the United Nations, bridging gaps between nations through language. But when Toshiba offered me a role as a technical writer, the allure of the adventure was irresistible.
As it turned out, it was a more fitting path for tech than I could have imagined. Plus, I was a prolific writer and a self-taught technologist. At a time when websites were still a novelty, I had built the website for my university’s language laboratory. This was a testament to a pattern that recurred throughout my career: curiosity coupled with initiative often paves the way for innovation. So, at Toshiba, I taught myself how to stand up a UNIX server and host the files on a remotely accessible network to assist my team in accessing the hardware documentation they needed across offices. Unbeknownst to me at the time, I had built the company’s first intranet.
As I dove into the Silicon Valley ecosystem, my career unfolded in a series of start-ups led by charismatic leaders. Each start-up had identified intriguing problems in diverse fields—from manufacturing to online learning to health care and, notably, online DVD rental—and had secured enough funding to explore potential solutions. I found myself drawn to these early-stage start-ups. In this fast-paced environment, my skill set rapidly expanded: content management, business analysis, project management, product management, and beyond. One common theme emerged, though: No matter my role or responsibilities, I was consistently the person most focused on the user or the customer. I became increasingly convinced that tech cannot—and should not—be isolated from humanity nor from business.
In an unexpected twist, I found that I had indeed become a translator. Not in the traditional sense of the word, but a translator nonetheless. I was the bridge connecting business needs to the tech folks, and tech constraints to the business folks. I found myself advocating for the user while analyzing technology requirements. This unique role, which I coined as being a Tech Humanist, gradually evolved for me over the years. It taught me to merge the perspectives of business, technology, and humanity into a single, coherent focus.
Fast-forward to today, my role as the Chief Tech Humanist for my own strategic advisory firm has allowed me to consult and speak for top companies, world governments, and everything in between. It has given me the opportunity to use my interdisciplinary skills—systems thinking, strategy, forecasting, and ethics—to help these organizations navigate their path forward. I could never have imagined a job so wide-ranging, so fulfilling, and with such potential for impact.
And yes, my dream of speaking at the United Nations did come true. Only, instead of translating languages, I translated the power of technology in human terms.
I should be clear: despite what the theme of this book might suggest, I’ve never been one to play it safe. Caution isn’t my watchword. I have a playful and spontaneous nature, which is best encapsulated by novelist Tom Robbins in one of my favorite quotes: “Humanity has advanced, when it has advanced, not because it has been sober, responsible, and cautious, but because it has been playful, rebellious, and immature.” But after nearly three decades in tech, I’ve seen the field shift toward relentless acceleration, often at the expense of people’s well-being. Conversely, I’ve also seen how businesses outside of Silicon Valley are often too cautious and suspicious of tech, missing their chance to innovate and adapt. I’ve had to learn the benefits of a moderate approach and advise my clients to do the same.
For almost 30 years, my job has been to translate. I’ve translated needs, requirements, priorities, and perspectives. I’ve translated from the technologists to the business leaders, from the businesses to the technologists, from corporate-speak to customer needs, and back again. I’ve translated from the future to the present and the present to the future. And always, throughout, I’ve translated the voice of the user, the customer, the human. This is the most important, most challenging work. It’s when I communicate the power of the underlying tech humanist ideas to leaders for whom it is new. When they adopt this way of thinking, they not only transform their companies but also shape entire industries by their example. They do better business and redefine what better business means. It’s a privilege to help leaders translate their vision in ways that align with the best futures for the most people.
INTRODUCTIONA Brighter Future Requires Better Decisions
If you sense that things are moving at a staggering speed, you’re not alone, and it’s not your imagination. That acceleration is measurable in at least a few ways, such as computing power. You may be familiar with Moore’s law, which states that every two years, you can assume a doubling of transistors on a microchip—in other words, double the computing power. From 1965 to 2015, computing power grew by a factor of 12 orders of magnitude, or indeed a doubling approximately every 1.3 years.i
That’s exponential growth. And the thing about exponential growth is that while it’s not unprecedented in nature, it’s not the model of change we’re adapted to. This presents us with challenges when it comes to making decisions that will make any sense just a few iterations down the road.
It’s not just speed, either; it’s scale, too. For years now data-driven decision-making and algorithmic optimizations set against a globally interconnected mega-network have been hurtling us forward at a dizzying speed on an incomprehensible scale. With this speed and scale comes significant consequences. Missteps can lead to unintended consequences, missed opportunities, or even lasting harm.
And this was before the advent of the generative AI era changed the game—or rather, upped the stakes. Since then, skills that once looked uniquely and safely human have been encroached upon. Capabilities that companies defended as their competitive advantage became tauntingly reproducible by the masses.
All of this is why I’ve heard often from leaders like you: amid all this chaos, decisions are getting harder to make. Why? Increasingly, we’re juggling an intricate balance between the immediate needs of our current realities (what matters now) and our long-term hopes and future visions (what is likely to matter).
In the spirit of the old chestnut, “price, quality, and schedule—pick two,” three factors in the tech-accelerated business environment often misalign, making wise choices feel all but impossible: future, tech, and human. You can choose the path that propels you into the future the farthest and fastest. While future predictions aren’t always accurate, we can typically deduce among a set of options which one seems the most open to change. You’ll also need to pick a winner in the technology you invest in. And how do any of these choices affect human beings over time? Are we inadvertently setting precedents that undermine privacy, that are ripe for misuse by bad actors, or by overzealous law enforcement?
We also have to be honest in confronting our own shortcomings: we don’t always make the most rational decisions. The field of neuroscience has shed plenty of light on how we decide. We humans are constantly collecting information and using it to stack the decks of our perceptions and judgments. When we move to choose, we are evaluating among options to select what matches best. Classical economics, too, would have us believe we are rational beings, only ever making decisions that make sense in an objective model of value and trade-offs.
Except, as the meme goes, that’s not how any of this works.
Why not? What gets in the way? Simply put: our biases.
Evolutionarily, biases have served us well. They’ve helped us discern patterns for survival. That animal is big; don’t go near it. That unfamiliar berry is red and reminds me of the one that made me sick last time; don’t eat it.
But our evolutionary heritage also favors the tendency to play it safe, even when rational assessment suggests opportunities that others might not see.
But what if we could make better, more informed decisions? What if there was a way to minimize these risks? A method to ensure that each step we take is purposeful, meaningful, and aligned with our organization’s vision?
This model offers that clarity. It starts with insights and foresights. These help us leverage data, market trends, and consumer behavior, tap into empathy, understanding, and wisdom, and in so doing, they illuminate the path ahead, enabling leaders to make more informed decisions. These aren’t just reactive responses to immediate problems but proactive steps toward the desired future. It’s about moving forward with purpose, keeping both the present and the future in sight as we transform and innovate.
Yet here is where we take a step back and rethink what we understand by transformation and innovation.
Often, transformation is used to play catch-up, a means of adjusting to the realities of our present situation. Transformation very often is about catching up to “what matters now.”
Innovation, on the other hand, is the kid in us who looked at a cardboard box and saw a spaceship. It’s our leap into the future. Innovation is often about venturing into “what is likely to matter.”
This is why it is so exciting to draw a line between these two ideas and shine a light on the next steps we need to move forward.
What matters next isn’t disregarding the present for the future or being stuck in the now without a vision for tomorrow. It’s understanding that the present and the future are a continuum. It’s planting a seed today and knowing, with patient nurturing, it will grow into a tree tomorrow.
What Matters Next invites you as a reader to pause and reflect, to take a step back from your busy life and consider what truly matters to you and to those you lead and serve.
But more than just a title, it is also a question, a challenge even. What will matter most in your future? As I pondered this question while writing this book, I realized it was a question I had been asking myself throughout my career. And it’s a question I’ve been asked, as well, by leaders like you.
I recall an interaction with a senior operations executive from a tech company who approached me in the labyrinthine halls of a tech conference after I had delivered that day’s opening keynote. She asked a question about one of the main points I’d made, and in answering I invited her feedback, at which point she looked down and got quiet. We were surrounded by exhibitors proclaiming solutions that did enough shouting: their kiosks had all the latest buzzwords—AI, blockchain, quantum computing. Suddenly she waved her hand wildly at it all and asked, “I guess what I’m asking is, what does any of this mean?” At first, I thought she was playing at not understanding the terminology. But as she continued, I saw where she was going: “What does all this mean for any of us? Or for our teams, for the people we serve? How can we possibly know?”
Coming up as a leader in the technology sector, I’ve always been fascinated with the future, always thinking about what’s next. But the future is a tricky thing. It’s a shifting, nebulous entity, always just out of reach. Yet we are asked to make decisions, to take actions that will have lasting impacts on this uncertain future. So how do we navigate this balance between current realities and future visions? And how do we do it so that it has any meaning for us, for others, for society as a whole?
I believe the answer lies in taking the next most meaningful step.
Moving toward what matters next, then, challenges us to break free from the perpetual cycle of problem-solving for the present. It urges us to align with what we believe the future may hold and to take a meaningful step, however small, in its direction.
Our Journey Continues
Some of what I’ve included in this book reflects my own journey, but it’s also a conversation. It’s an invitation for you to join me in this exploration of what truly matters in our fast-paced, technology-driven world. It’s a call to action, to take meaningful steps toward your future, steps that are grounded in understanding and insight.
This book in a sense picks up where my last two books, Tech Humanist and A Future So Bright, leave off. It not only builds upon their foundational ideas but also explores in greater depth how to achieve those ideas. Consider this book as the next stage in the ongoing journey to the bright future that we dreamed together. This installment, though, comes with a special focus on the leaders who are at the forefront of making the crucial tech decisions that will shape our future. It examines what it takes to navigate the complex landscapes of technology and innovation, offering valuable insights and guidance to those poised to make the decisions that will take us there.
This book aims to equip you with the tools and frameworks needed to make high-quality decisions that lead to better outcomes with fewer long-term consequences.
Of course, we cannot eliminate uncertainty. Instead, we can learn to manage uncertainty, making it a navigable part of our journey rather than a roadblock. It’s about taking calculated steps forward, bringing the future vision closer without losing touch with the present.
Prioritizing today’s realities versus tomorrow’s visions is a false dichotomy; they aren’t opposites. They are a continuum. It’s not a question of either-or, but rather a blend of both. Effective leadership is both/and: Both the present and the future matter, and both require our attention. The decisions we make today should lay the foundations for the road we want to travel tomorrow.
After all, it’s not just about reaching the destination. It’s about the journey, about the steps we take and the courage with which we take them, and the understanding we gain along the way.
▄ ▄ ▄
The Now-Next Continuum
Imagine a line. On one end is the past, which is familiar and known. On the other end is the future, unfamiliar and unknown. In the middle is now, our current reality, about which we know or can know a great deal. Our task is not to jump from one end to the other, to run headlong into the future. Instead we must take meaningful and informed steps along this line to guide our organizations toward what is next.
But how do we do that? How do we span the present and the future? How do we make progress without losing sight of where we’ve come from and where we’re going?
That’s where the now-next continuum comes in. As the primary conceptual model in this book, it’s really three tools in one: It is a bridge across time, guiding us to consider our past actions and decisions in the context of present realities, as a clue to what may be knowable about the near future and predictable farther ahead. It’s a tool for understanding transitions, both large and small, and for managing the complexities of our tech-driven world where change often feels too fast. And it’s a map that helps us identify the most probable outcomes in the future and the most preferred outcomes and understand the effort it might take to narrow the gap between those two points.
Harms of Action vs. Inaction
The concepts in this book are powerful tools for decision-making. They guide us to act in small, incremental yet meaningful steps that don’t exceed our understanding of the technology or its consequences. We know we won’t reach the mountaintop in one leap, so we take one step at a time, adjusting our course as we go.
But let’s be clear, this is not a green light for timid incrementalism. It’s not about hiding behind caution when bravery is needed, or avoiding action when inaction could cause harm.
This difference matters when the harms of inaction outweigh the harms of action.
This paradox highlights the dual challenges of tech leadership: some companies go too fast, racing ahead of their understanding of consequences and impact, causing harm through their actions. Other companies lag behind, lacking the boldness they need to overcome the problems they could solve through more courageous action. In their case, harm is caused through their inaction.
We need leaders to have bold visions of the future, visions that harness the power and potential of tech while prioritizing equity, balance, and sustainability.
To realize these visions without racing beyond our current knowledge or understanding of potential harms and consequences, What Matters Next advocates for incremental action. It’s about taking a small, carefully monitored step, evaluating the feedback, gaining insights, and adjusting accordingly before taking the next steps toward the future.
What if uncertainty about the future leaves you feeling stuck? Even then, this book can help. It provides a way forward, guiding you to take thoughtful and ambitious steps, as aware as we can be of potential consequences. It’s about being brave, but not foolhardy; careful, but not paralyzed by fear.
Weighing the harms of action versus harms of inaction does more than just help us make decisions. It also provides a counter to the common bias toward risk aversion. It pushes us to consider the future risks that could be associated with current harms. It reminds us that inaction, too, can be a form of risk.
Commitment to Purpose
For companies to truly progress, they need to go beyond just taking the next logical step. Instead, they should be committed to a road map guided by purpose: a clear, defined sequence of steps that lead them profitably toward goals that matter more than money.
After all, success isn’t just about making a profit. It’s about making a difference. There’s a purpose that fuels you, and it may be to drive innovation, solve complex problems, or make the world a better place. Whatever it is, this vision becomes a guiding light, illuminating a path forward.
But what does this commitment look like in practice, especially in a world that’s constantly changing?
Purpose should be closely related to a company’s core organizational strategy and lived every day through its operating model. Day-to-day decisions should be based not just on profits, but on values.
This is where humanistic and ethical considerations take shape. They help us consider the impact of our actions, not just on our bottom line, but on our customers, employees, and the world at large. Aligning decisions through purpose means they tie together our insights and understanding and help us avoid unintended consequences.
It’s not just about taking the next logical step. It’s about taking the next meaningful step, the one that takes you closer to your purpose. It’s about making the kind of progress that makes you nimbler, wiser, more adaptable, and more aligned with humanity and a brighter future overall.
Freeing Ourselves for the Future
Moving toward what matters next is a bit like stepping off a treadmill and taking to the road. We stop running in place, only dealing with the present, and start taking meaningful steps toward what we believe our future holds.
This journey involves soul-searching. It requires shedding the weight of what mattered before and freeing ourselves to embrace the future.
It’s easy to become entangled in blame for past mistakes, regret over what used to matter to us, and anxiety about what lies ahead. Yet, when we concentrate on moving toward what matters next, we can dream bolder dreams about what will matter in 10 or 20 years, not to act on those dreams immediately, but to ensure our next steps align with this grand vision and carry us in the right direction.
The Next Challenge
The challenge for leaders is to artfully blend our immediate needs, what matters now, with our hopes for the future, or what is likely to matter.
In short, we need you to create bold visions for not only effective technology, but equitable technology. Not just fast, but fair. Powerful, yet progressive. We need leaders who make decisions that go beyond mere profit, to consider potential pitfalls. Leaders who guide organizations that listen, adapt as needed, and then take the next meaningful step, again and again.
Ultimately, decisions that prioritize equity, fairness, and the well-being of all stakeholders are what truly matter next.
With this mindset, we advocate for a significant shift in our decision-making perspective: from technology that simply functions well to technology that works well for everyone.
Future Ready, Tech Ready, Human Ready
Most of all, this is meant to be a guide. It’s a collection of lessons learned through practice, offered to you for your own practice.
No disrespect to academics, but this isn’t meant to be a scholarly treatise on decision-making. I’m not writing as a neuroscientist who studies, say, which lobe of the brain lights up when making decisions under duress—although that would undoubtedly make for fine reading. Instead, I have spent my career in and around technology strategy in business, making influential decisions of my own, and then over the past decade, advising leaders around the world on their own significant decisions at great speed and scale. My aim here is to distill the insights I’ve collected from across the span of that experience and to provide you with the same truth-speaking, the same compassionate guidance I would offer to a client.
Moreover, our goal here isn’t speculative futurism. We don’t need to take inventory of every kind of cutting-edge technology and its potential far-reaching impact to understand the patterns. What we need is a strategic map to understand the patterns. I’ve never fully identified with the “futurist” label anyway. What this book reflects is my approach to futurism as a strategist.
When you’re an idealist, strategy is how you get pragmatic.
And there’s more than enough idealism to go around: read between the lines, and you’ll see plenty of it, nestled in between all the strategic models. There’s a belief that business can thrive and be a force for human thriving. There’s a lifelong fascination with technology and its potential. There’s a genuine love for the wide world of people I’ve met on my travels, and a wholehearted concern for their well-being.
And there’s a belief in the power of transformative leadership to integrate all these priorities. So more than anything, this book is meant to help you transform. The discussion, diagrams, and tools I’ve provided are there to help you see the world and the future a little differently: to make more sense of it, to proceed with greater clarity and confidence, and to make decisions you can feel proud of.
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Vipra, J. & Myers West, S. (2024, April 19). Computational power and AI. AI Now Institute.
https://ainowinstitute.org/publication/policy/compute-and-ai
PART IA World That’s Moving Too Fast
CHAPTER 1The Conflicting Challenges of Leading in the Too-Fast World
In 2020, as the world was battling a pandemic, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) was taking on another fight: suing Clearview AI, a then-burgeoning tech start-up, for violating privacy rights. Clearview, a facial recognition company that used AI to match faces to identities, had been collecting the faceprints of millions of people around the world, according to the ACLU suit, but there was at least one jurisdiction where that data was protected: Illinois. Collecting the facial biometric data of Illinois residents without their consent was a violation of the Illinois Biometric Information Privacy Act (BIPA). After two years, Clearview settled the lawsuit, agreeing to a nationwide ban on selling its database to most private companies and requiring opt-in consent from Illinois residents before capturing faceprints.
Why did the ACLU go to such lengths? And why should we care? Because, at its core, this case illustrates one of the most significant challenges we face in our technologically driven world: the tension between the promise of the future and the realities of the present.
Don’t get me wrong. Facial recognition is an exciting technology. It boasts benefits other technologies can only dream of: convenience and security, identifying criminal perpetrators, locating missing persons, speeding through airport security, making unlocking a phone easier for visually impaired people or those with mobility limitations—or anyone with their hands full in the grocery line. All of it sounds incredible. But to deliver on all those wildly exciting promises, the tech asks for a big trade-off: trust and vulnerability. The sheer volume of data and the kinds of data needed, as well as the integration of that data between private and public services, and the lack of transparency in the algorithmic processing—all of these factors make it hard for experts to recommend that facial recognition is ready for primetime. But companies such as Clearview have raced ahead to create offerings built on datasets that one might argue (especially if you’re the ACLU) compromise the security or privacy of the public. At least for now.
