When E-Book

Stuart Albert

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 419

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2013

Beschreibung

An elegant and counterintuitive guide to achieving perfect timing Timing is everything. Whether we are making strategic business decisions or the smallest personal choice, we must decide not only what to do, but when to do it. Act too early--or too late--and the results can be disastrous. Based on a 20-year investigation into more than 2,000 timing issues and errors, When presents a single and practical approach for dealing with timing in life and business. Good timing, Albert argues, is not just a matter of luck, intuition, or past experience--all of which may be unreliable--but a skill. He describes that skill and details the tools and methods needed to conduct a successful timing analysis. * The book is the first to offer an efficient and comprehensive way to think through any timing issue * Filled with dozens of lively stories illustrating good and bad timing in all walks of life--business, warfare, medicine, sports, entertainment and the arts * Written by Stuart Albert, one of the foremost timing experts in the world and developer of the first practical, research-based method for turning the skill of timing into a competitive advantage Engaging and counterintuitive, When will show everyone, regardless of the work they do, or the life they live, that "it's all in the timing."

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

More Praise for When

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Notes

Introduction

Why does Timing Elude Us?

Getting Beyond the Usual Suspects

A Timing Analysis

The Structure of the Book

The Art of Timing

Notes

Chapter One: Sequence

The Characteristics of Sequences

Sequence-Related Risks

Sequence Options and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Two: Temporal Punctuation

Characteristics of Temporal Punctuation

Temporal Punctuation Risks

Temporal Punctuation Options and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Three: Interval and Duration

The Characteristics of Intervals

Interval and Duration Risks

Interval and Duration Options and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Four: Rate

Characteristics of Rates

Rate-Related Risks

Rate Options and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Five: Shape

An Abridged Catalogue of Shapes

Shape-Related Risks and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Six: Polyphony

Tracking Polyphony

Using the Polyphony Lens

Polyphony-Related Risks

Polyphony Options and Opportunities

The Temporal Imagination

Notes

Chapter Seven: Using the Lenses

The Sequence Lens

The Punctuation Lens

The Interval and Duration Lens

The Rate Lens

The Shape Lens

The Polyphony Lens

Putting It All Together

Lessons Learned

Notes

Chapter Eight: A Timing Analysis

Step 1: Describe the Situation

Step 2: Sketch a Score Diagram

Step 3: Probe More Deeply

Step 4: Look for Windows of Opportunity

Step 5: Identify Timing-Related Risks

Step 6: Evaluate Your Options

Step 7: Act

Notes

Coda: Re-Imaging the World

Notes

Appendix: Temporal Architecture

Notes

Acknowledgments

About The Author

Index

More Praise for When

“Stuart Albert has given us an important, witty, and, yes, timely book about the role of timing in our decision-making. He helps us see that the timing of decisions lies within our control and that doing a timing analysis and having a ‘temporal design’ remains key to the success of any new venture. With examples not only from the business world, but also from politics and the arts, Albert reveals the fascinating complexity of something that we all engage in and yet rarely think about. What St. Augustine said about time applies as well to timing: ‘If no one asks, I know what it is. If I wish to explain it … I do not know.’ This book does a fabulous job of explaining timing; read it and you will know.”

—Thomas Fisher, dean, College of Design, University of Minnesota

“Stuart Albert takes us to a whole new level of understanding of the role of time. We learn how to see windows of opportunity, identify when risks materialize, and map rhythms, rates, sequences, and intervals so as to be able to see their patterns and act in the right moment. When is a gift to those wanting to learn not just what to do but when to do it, as we attempt to lead in a dynamic, unfolding world.”

—Deborah Ancona, Seley Distinguished Professor of Management and professor of organization studies, MIT, and director, MIT Leadership Center

Cover image: Adrian Morgan

Cover design: Laurence Mouton | Getty Images

Copyright , 2013 by John Wiley & Sons. All rights reserved.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Albert, Stuart, 1941-

When : the art of perfect timing / Stuart Albert. — 1 Edition.

pages cm

Includes index.

ISBN 978-1-118-22611-7 (hardback), 978-1-118-41950-2 (ePDF),

978-1-118-42109-3 (ePUB)

1. Time management. I. Title.

HD69.T54A43 2013

650.1'1 — dc23

This book is for Rosita

Preface

Conventional wisdom suggests that any attempt to understand timing is futile. No one, it is said, can time the market or credibly predict the future. The world is too complex. There are too many unknowns. Every situation is different in some important way that makes past experience an imperfect guide. Moreover, sometimes getting the timing right is just a matter of luck, being in the right place at the right time with the right product or service. There is an element of truth in all of these observations. But the view that we cannot acquire skill in matters of timing is not only overly pessimistic; it is simply not true. With the right tools, we can be far better at managing and deciding issues of timing than conventional wisdom suggests. This book describes the nature of those tools and how to apply them.

For me, the key insight into issues of timing came in 2004. I was working in a makeshift office in my mother-in-law's apartment in São Paulo, Brazil. My wife and I were staying there as Dona Ella fought her final battle with cancer. A life was ending, and time was on my mind. Each morning, the cold winter sun would brighten the dark rosewood wall in our bedroom, and I would listen for the sound of the rooster that had always been present in past visits. But this year the rooster was silent. The last sounds of the city's rural past had vanished. In this apartment, where we had stayed during summers and Christmas vacations for more than thirty years, I discovered the concept of temporal architecture that forms the heart of this book. Although I didn't quite realize it at the time, this concept opened up a new way to approach the challenge of timing.

When I first began the study of timing in the spring of 1991, I made an explicit decision not to follow the norms of my profession. I am a professor in a business school, trained in the hard and social sciences. In contrast to the work of my colleagues, there was no “hypothesis” or explanation of “the facts” that I needed to test, no controlled experiments to run or large-scale surveys to administer. I didn't need a computer to “analyze the data” or build mathematical models. I didn't need statistics because there was nothing to count or measure. In short, I didn't need any of the sophisticated tools of modern social science. Instead, I went back to the time before they were invented. I became a hunter-gatherer.

I read the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Economist cover to cover and clipped out every article, regardless of subject matter, that had anything to do with timing. I paid particular attention to timing errors: an action begun too soon or too late, a project unexpectedly delayed, and a sound business that, to everyone's surprise, collapsed overnight. In each case, I tried to determine how better timing could have improved the outcome.

I slowly began to create a classification system to keep track of the clippings I was acquiring, now over two thousand. This was not just an academic exercise. One reason we fail to see timing issues in advance is that we don't have a practical way to search for them. The best way to find anything is to give it a name and address within a known structure. That is what this book will do: give you a way to find, name, and address timing issues anywhere in your work and life.

While I was organizing this material, I began working with a number of companies. The issues were diverse. A business venture based on a new technology failed, and timing was clearly part of the reason. A company ended up in court over a broken contract, and, in my judgment, a better understanding of timing would have produced a different outcome. I worked with the owner of a company who was trying to decide whether to match the price structure of a competing firm. A timing analysis revealed that no action was needed: the problem would solve itself because of rapid changes in the industry.

Now that I could see how deeply timing was involved in so many aspects of business, I had to pause. The topic of timing seemed boundless. It had no center, no obvious beginning or end. It was also complex, because sometimes timing doesn't matter. Some things will succeed or fail regardless of when we act. So, for the first ten years, I wrote largely for myself. I put what became almost eight hundred pages of notes and analysis into a folder on my computer and labeled it A Book for My Own Use. In the course of writing those notes, I discovered that timing errors weren't random and that, because they weren't random, at least some of them could be prevented. As I got deeper into the subject, I discovered processes and phenomena that I hadn't seen before. In my work with companies, I found that the approach I was developing had immediate practical application.

Later, as I sat down to write what I discovered, I found myself facing the great irony of our time: no time. Busy people rarely have the time to read a book of any length or complexity, so I've condensed, cut, shortened. If you start this book as you board a transatlantic flight, you will have a good idea of what a timing analysis consists of by the time you land. And if your flight is delayed (as so often occurs), then you will have ample time to finish it. What better way to kill time than to read a book on timing?1

Notes

1 E. Brann, What, Then, Is Time? (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999); J. T. Fraser, Time and Time Again: Reports from a Boundary of the Universe (Boston: Brill, 2007).For a summary of research on time within management, see Academy of Management Review 26, no. 4 (October 2001). There is of course a vast literature dealing with time, which I will not attempt to reference. The best short review of philosophical approaches that I have found is Brann's What, Then, Is Time? For those interested in the interdisciplinary study of time, none can surpass the work of J. T. Fraser. See his Time and Time Again for a series of essays summarizing some of his work. I also call your attention to the work of the International Society for the Study of Time, which has triannual conferences and an edited book series.

Introduction

Timing matters. And it matters in every aspect of business: from the launch of a new product to decisions about when to change strategic direction, spin off part of a company, accept a counteroffer, or invest in new equipment. History is full of innovative products and services that failed because they were too early. The market wasn't ready. The technology had too many bugs. Supporting infrastructure didn't exist. More commonly, in a world racing on steroids, the fatal flaw is being late. We should have moved more quickly. Our strategy would have worked, if only we had executed earlier. Unfortunately, as Homer said, it is the height of folly to be wise too late.

I've written When for executives in all fields and for people at every level of an organization where it is important to get the timing right. Most individuals and organizations already have some way of taking timing into account. For the individual, it may be to rely on the feeling in your gut or on what you have done in the past; for the organization, there may be a formal planning process or sophisticated models or algorithms. Whatever the approach, timing errors are common.

Some timing issues are easily identified. We know about them in advance: When is the right time to launch a product or a new business, for example? Is it too early or too late? When will a window of opportunity open, and when will it close? What time-related risks am I running? Will my industry change overnight? How should I proceed: incrementally with caution or as quickly as possible? But some timing issues are not so easy to identify, and missing them can have tragic consequences. Suppose, for example, that your job was to oversee the launch of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada. Clearly, the key issue, as far as timing was concerned, would be to make sure that the venues were ready and that all construction was completed in time for the games to begin. To do that, you would employ the sophisticated tools of project management. Your focus would be on logistics and scheduling. If things were running late, you would look for ways to speed them up, and so on. The last thing you would be prepared for would be a tragic accident just before the opening ceremony. And, yet, that is what happened when twenty-one-year-old Georgian Nodar Kumaritashvili died in a high-speed crash on the luge during his final training run. Could you—or should you—have seen this catastrophe coming? An accident is terrible whenever it occurs, but the timing of a fatal accident, just at the start of the games, could not have been worse.