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Fred Spier

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big history and the future of humanity "This remains the best single attempt to theorize big history as a discipline that can link core concepts and paradigms across all historical disciplines, from cosmology to geology, from biology to human history. With additional and updated material, the Second Edition also offers a fine introduction to the history of big history and a superb introductory survey to the big history story. Essential reading for anyone interested in a rapidly evolving new field of scholarship that links the sciences and the humanities into a modern, science-based origin story." --David Christian, Macquarie University "Notable for its theoretic approach, this new Second Edition is both an indispensable contribution to the emerging big history narrative and a powerful university textbook. Spier defines words carefully and recognizes the limits of current knowledge, aspects of his own clear thinking." --Cynthia Brown, Emerita, Dominican University of California Reflecting the latest theories in the sciences and humanities, this new edition of Big History and the Future of Humanity presents an accessible and original overview of the entire sweep of history from the origins of the universe and life on Earth up to the present day. Placing the relatively brief period of human history within a much broader framework - one that considers everything from vast galaxy clusters to the tiniest sub-atomic particles - big history is an innovative theoretical approach that opens up entirely new multidisciplinary research agendas. Noted historian Fred Spier reveals how a thorough examination of patterns of complexity can offer richer insights into what the future may have in store for humanity. The second edition includes new learning features, such as highlighted scientific concepts, an illustrative timeline and comprehensive glossary. By exploring the cumulative history from the Big Bang to the modern day, Big History and the Future of Humanity, Second Edition, sheds important historical light on where we have been - and offers a tantalizing glimpse of what lies ahead.

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CONTENTS

COVER

PRAISE FOR BIG HISTORY AND THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY

DEDICATION

TITLE PAGE

COPYRIGHT PAGE

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TEXT BOXES

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Bibliography

A SHORT TIME LINE OFBIG HISTORY

1 INTRODUCTION TO BIG HISTORY

Introduction

Studying the Past

A Very Short History of Academic History

A Short History of Big History

A Historical Theory of Everything?

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

2 GENERAL APPROACH

Introduction

Matter and Energy

Complexity

Energy Flows and the Emergence of Complexity

The Goldilocks Principle

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

3 COSMIC EVOLUTION

Introduction

The Big Bang: No Complexity

Recent Issues Concerning the Big Bang Scenario

The Radiation Era: The Emergence of Complexity at the Smallest Scales

The Matter Era: The Emergence of Complexity at Atomic and Molecular Scales

Galaxy Formation: The Emergence of Complexity at Larger Scales

The Emergence of Stars

Stars as Nuclear Forges

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

4 OUR COSMIC NEIGHBORHOOD

Introduction

The Galactic Habitable Zone

The Emergence of Our Cosmic Neighborhood

The Solar System Habitable Zone

Major Characteristics of Earth

Early Inner Planetary History

Early Earth History

Life Is Very Special

The Emergence of Life

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

5 LIFE ON EARTH

Life, Energy and Complexity

Planetary Energy Flows and Life

The Gaia Hypothesis

The Emergence of Energy Harvesting from Outside

The Emergence of the Biological Food Web

The Emergence of Multicellular Organisms

The Emergence of Brains and Consciousness

The Increase and Expansion of Biological Complexity

Conquest of the Land

Further Increasing Complexity

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

6 EARLY HUMAN HISTORY

Introduction

What Makes Humans Different

Energy and Complexity

The Emergence of Early Humans

Improving Social Coordination

Tool Making and Brain Growth

Brains and Intestines

Fire Control

Migration

The Rise of Modern Humans

Early Religion

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

7 RECENT HUMAN HISTORY

Introduction

The Agrarian Revolution

The Developing Agrarian Regime

Social Effects of the Agrarian Revolution

The Emergence of Agrarian Religions

Increasing Agricultural Complexity and Declining Untamed Complexity

Early State Formation

The Emergence of Big States

The Emergence of Moral Religions

Energy and Complexity in State Societies

The First Wave of Globalization

Industrialization: The Second Wave of Globalization

Informatization: The Third Wave of Globalization

Energy, Complexity and Goldilocks Circumstances

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

8 FACING THE FUTURE

Introduction

A Very Short Overview of the Long Future of the Universe

The Future of Earth and Life

The Future of Humanity

The Availability of Matter and Energy

Exhaustion of Critical Resources and Growing Entropy

Will Humans Migrate to Other Planets?

Final Words

Bibliography

Recommended Reading

INDEX

END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

List of Tables

Chapter 02

Table 2.1: Some estimated power densities (reproduced with permission)

Chapter 07

Table 7.1: Energy consumption worldwide in 2011

CE

Table 7.2: Energy consumption in human history

Table 7.3: A few selected power densities

Chapter 08

Table 8.1: Estimated duration of nonrenewable energy sources

List of Illustrations

Chapter 01

Figure 1.1: Alexander von Humboldt in his library, Oranienburger Straße 67, Berlin, Germany. Chromolithograph, copy of water-color drawing by Eduard Hildebrandt, 1856

CE

.

Chapter 02

Figure 2.1: Goldilocks falling from a tree. Apparently, she has overstepped her boundaries. Soon, her complexity will be damaged as a result of the impact caused by gravitational energy.

Chapter 03

Figure 3.1: The variation in the cosmic background radiation provides evidence for the first emergence of greater complexity.

Chapter 04

Figure 4.1: The solar system habitable zone, orbits of planets not drawn to scale.

Chapter 05

Figure 5.1: Earth as seen by the astronauts of Apollo 17. The effects of geothermal and solar energy are clearly visible, including the shape of the continents and the location of deserts, which contribute to define the Goldilocks circumstances for life.

Chapter 06

Figure 6.1: A human effort to recreate the African savanna elsewhere on the planet, Amsterdam, Westerpark, winter 1995–6

CE

.

Chapter 07

Figure 7.1: The essence of agriculture: deciding what is going live and what is going to die; the Cconucuyca family weeding potatoes in January of 1986

CE

near the village of Zurite, Anta, Peru.

Figure 7.2: Religious-political remnant of early state formation? The Temple (literally: Altar) of Heaven, Beijing, China, where Ming and Qing emperors took part in annual ceremonies to procure a good harvest.

Figure 7.3: Firth of Forth Railway Bridge near Edinburgh, Scotland, exemplifying the Industrial Revolution: steel connecting distant shores carrying powered transportation linking the country.

Figure 7.4: The amazing expansion of human control over matter and energy during the twentieth century: the Apollo 8 astronauts during the roll-out of the Saturn V rocket that would propel them into lunar orbit and back, fall 1968

CE

.

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

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Praise for the first edition

‘Brilliant. It pushes the project of theorizing big history a lot further, in exactly the right way, alert to the dangers of over-theorizing or theorizing on too limited information. It will be a major contribution to the discipline.’

David Christian, Macquarie University, author of Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History

‘This book has convinced me not only that Big History is interesting and exciting, but has established a genuine intellectual basis for integrating historical knowledge, and historical method, with those of the natural world. This is a framework in which, ideally, all history should be investigated, taught and discussed.’

R. I. Moore, Emeritus Professor of History, Newcastle University

‘The most exciting book that I’ve read in 30 years. A masterpiece!’

Barry Rodrigue, University of Southern Maine

‘Narratives don’t come much grander than the current scientific view of the history of the Universe … Spier is one of a small band of exponents of big history, the effort to put the whole story together in an academically rigorous way … Everyone should have access to this.’

Times Higher Education Supplement

To William Hardy McNeill:The historian I admire the most in the whole wide world.

We remain submerged in a vast evolutionary process that began with the Big Bang (probably) and is heading to an unknown future – a system in which matter and energy evolve, stars form and break apart, the solar system took form and will eventually collapse (but not before life does), and human societies emerged on planet Earth, beginning an evolution whose end is not in sight.

(William H. McNeill, The Global Condition (1992), pp. xiv–xv)

BIG HISTORY AND THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY

SECOND EDITION

FRED SPIER

This edition first published 2015© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Registered OfficeJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex,PO19 8SQ, UK

Editorial Offices350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148-5020, USA9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UKThe Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK

For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services, and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell.

The right of Fred Spier to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books.

Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Spier, Fred, 1952– Big history and the future of humanity / Fred Spier. – Second edition.  pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index.

 ISBN 978-1-118-88172-9 (paperback) 1. Civilization–Philosophy. 2. History–Philosophy. 3. World history–Philosophy. 4. Human evolution. 5. Human ecology. 6. Biocomplexity. 7. Complexity (Philosophy) I. Title. CB19.S679 2015 909–dc23

      2014045124

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Cover image: Earthrise, from Apollo 8, 24 December 1968. Photo NASA

For teaching resources and more information about this book, please visit www.bighistory.info.

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: Alexander von Humboldt in his library, Oranienburger Straße 67, Berlin, Germany. Chromolithograph, copy of water-color drawing by Eduard Hildebrandt, 1856 CE. (Original in possession of the author)

Figure 2.1: Goldilocks falling from a tree. Apparently, she has overstepped her boundaries. Soon, her complexity will be damaged as a result of the impact caused by gravitational energy. (Drawing by Giulia Spier, 2007 CE, then 4 years old)

Figure 3.1: The variation in the cosmic background radiation provides evidence for the first emergence of greater complexity. (Source: NASA)

Figure 4.1: The solar system habitable zone, orbits of planets not drawn to scale. (Source: NASA)

Figure 5.1: Earth as seen by the astronauts of Apollo 17. The effects of geothermal and solar energy are clearly visible, including the shape of the continents and the location of deserts, which contribute to define the Goldilocks circumstances for life. (Source: NASA)

Figure 6.1: A human effort to recreate the African savanna elsewhere on the planet, Amsterdam, Westerpark, winter 1995–6 CE. (Photograph by the author)

Figure 7.1: The essence of agriculture: deciding what is going live and what is going to die; the Cconucuyca family weeding potatoes in January of 1986 CE near the village of Zurite, Anta, Peru. (Photograph by the author)

Figure 7.2: Religious-political remnant of early state formation? The Temple (literally: Altar) of Heaven, Beijing, China, where Ming and Qing emperors took part in annual ceremonies to procure a good harvest. (Photograph by the author, 2011 CE)

Figure 7.3: Firth of Forth Railway Bridge near Edinburgh, Scotland, exemplifying the industrial revolution: steel connecting distant shores carrying powered transportation linking the country. (Photograph by the author, 1970 CE)

Figure 7.4: The amazing expansion of human control over matter and energy during the twentieth century: the Apollo 8 astronauts during the roll-out of the Saturn V rocket that would propel them into lunar orbit and back, fall 1968 CE. (Source: NASA)

LIST OF TEXT BOXES

Origin of Cosmic World Views

Big History and Other Histories

De historiae utilitate and Mercator sapiens

Little Big Histories

The Second Law of Thermodynamics

More Power Density Calculations by Eric Chaisson

How Guano Changed the World: An Example of Energy, Matter and Goldilocks Circumstances

A Very Short History of Astronomy

Composition of the Chemical Elements

Climbing the Pyramid of Complexity (1): Nuclei of Chemical Elements

Climbing the Pyramid of Complexity (2): Large Structures

Exoplanets and Astrobiology

Climbing the Pyramid of Complexity (3): Atoms and Molecules

Key Molecules of Life

Climbing the Pyramid of Complexity (4): Life

The Origin of Feelings, Intuition, Creativity, Art, Humor, Religion and Empathy

Climbing the Pyramid of Complexity (5): Culture

William McNeill and Skills in Human History

Alexander von Humboldt on Agriculture and Collective Learning

Norbert Elias, Interdependencies and the Civilizing Process

Origin of Moral Behavior

Middle Classes and the Sciences, the Arts and Philosophy

How Violent Have Humans Been?

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The biggest philosophy, foundation-shaking impression was seeing the smallness of the Earth. … Even the pictures don’t do it justice, because they always have this frame around them. But when you … put your eyeball to the window of the spacecraft, you can see essentially half of the universe. … That’s a lot more black and a lot more universe than ever comes through a framed picture. … It’s not how small the Earth was, it’s just how big everything else was.

(Apollo 8 astronaut William Anders in Chaikin & Kohl (2009), p. 158)

This book is about big history, the approach to history in which the human past is placed within the framework of cosmic history, from the beginning of the universe up until life on Earth today. This book offers a fresh theoretical approach to big history that, I hope, will provide a better understanding not only of the past but also of the major challenges humanity will be facing in the near future.

My search for a theory underlying big history has been motivated by a deep concern about what humans have been doing to our living conditions on planet Earth. My environmental preoccupation, in its turn, came as a direct result of the Apollo moon flights during the late 1960s and early 1970s ce. The mission that left the most enduring impression took place in December of 1968 ce, when Apollo 8 went to the moon for the first time and orbited our celestial companion 10 times before returning to Earth. In the Netherlands, I watched their exciting black-and-white live transmissions from space, while snapping pictures with my photo camera mounted on a tripod in front of our television set. This was before the days of home video recorders or any other devices that could record television pictures. I felt that I was witnessing events of great importance, while I was not certain whether these images would be preserved or be available to me. I took pictures of the launch; of the first live broadcast from space, which included the first crude images of Earth; and of the moon’s surface as seen from lunar orbit. On our family television set, Earth from space looked like a white blob, the result of overexposure by the Apollo television camera. I was very curious to know what the astronauts were really seeing, what ‘the good Earth’ looked like from space, as Apollo 8 commander Frank Borman called our planet during the famous Christmas Eve broadcast from lunar orbit.

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!

Lesen Sie weiter in der vollständigen Ausgabe!