Brexit For Dummies E-Book

Nicholas Wallwork

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 325

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2019

Beschreibung

Your practical and fearless guide to surviving the world's biggest break-up Whether you're a staunch Remainer, a buccaneering Brexiteer, or are wavering between the two camps, you'll want to be fully au fait with all the issues surrounding Britain's exit from the EU--wherever in the world you and your business are based. This book, by leading businessman and entrepreneur Nicholas Wallwork, will arm you with everything you need to negotiate the post-Brexit landscape and end up just where you need to be. Kicking off with the history behind the tightly fought June 23 referendum, Brexit for Dummies covers the origins of British Euroscepticism right up to the most recent legal and policy changes in place following the vote. As well as looking at the influence Brexit has already had--both domestically and internationally--the book takes a glimpse at what lies ahead, giving you vital insights into how to protect your business right now and to capitalize on new opportunities in the future. * Changing customs: how to negotiate the new import-export rules * Think global: how is Brexit influencing the international economy? * Get moving: what do immigration policy changes mean for my business? * Buy or sell?: make the smartest foreign investment decisions both inside and outside Britain Love it or loathe it, Brexit has profound implications for your business, and this guide will help you stop worrying and prove that au revoir doesn't mean goodbye for good.

Leseprobe

Brexit For Dummies®

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Brexit For Dummies®

To view this book's Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and search for “Brexit For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box.

Table of Contents

Cover

Introduction

About This Book

Foolish Assumptions

Icons Used in This Book

Beyond This Book

Where to Go from Here

Part 1: Getting Familiar with Brexit

Chapter 1: What Is Brexit and What Does It Mean for You?

The Votes Are In, But How Did We Get Here?

Breaking Down the Brexit Timeline

Looking at the Key Elements of the Brexit Negotiations

Deal or No Deal? Brexit Goes Down to the Wire

How Businesses Reacted to the Brexit Decision

Assessing the Potential Impact of Brexit on Your Business

Chapter 2: The Road to Brexit: The UK’s Rocky Relationship with the EU

From Empire to the Aftermath of World War II

Flares and Friends: The UK and Europe Cozy Up in the 1970s

Things (Start To) Fall Apart: The UK and Europe in the 1980s and Early 1990s

Rising Euroscepticism from the 1990s Onward

Right, Lads, Let’s Have a Vote

Drawing the Battle Lines: Looking at the Key Issues in the Brexit Referendum

Part 2: Breaking Up Is Hard to Do

Chapter 3: Negotiating the UK’s Exit from the EU

Understanding the Scope of the Withdrawal Agreement

The A-Team? Introducing Each Side’s Negotiating Team

Exploring the Draft Withdrawal Agreement

Getting Parliamentary Agreement on the, er, Agreement

Chapter 4: Everybody Needs Good Neighbors: Looking at Long-Term UK–EU Relations

Understanding the Declaration on Future Relations and How It Differs from the Withdrawal Agreement

Trading in Goods and Services in the Future

Building Regulatory Cooperation between the UK and the EU

Solving the Thorny Issue of Customs Arrangements

Considering What “No More Free Movement” Will Mean in Practice

Forming the Basis for Formal Post-Brexit Negotiations

Part 3: Getting Down to Business: The Impact of Brexit on UK Companies

Chapter 5: Importing and Exporting Goods and Services between the UK and the EU

Looking at UK Trade around the World

Understanding Big-Picture Importing and Exporting Issues

Will UK Businesses Lose Access to the Single Market?

Planning for Changes in UK–EU Imports and Exports

And What About Services?

Going Further Afield: Trading With Customers outside of the EU

Chapter 6: Tackling Transport and Logistics Challenges

Looking at Big-Picture Logistics Issues

Preparing for More Stringent Border Controls

What Happens When Your Delivery Vehicles Travel in Europe?

Planning for Potential Supply Chain Disruption

Transporting Goods to and from Non-EU Countries

Chapter 7: Employing EU Citizens in the UK (And Vice Versa)

Looking at the Big Picture: How Will Brexit Affect Employment Law?

Managing the Impact on Your Existing European Employees

Supporting All Your Employees through Uncertain Times

Making Sure You Have Ongoing Access to the Labor You Need

Employing UK Citizens in Europe

What if Your (UK Citizen) Employees Need to Visit Europe on a Business Trip?

Chapter 8: Eyeing Other Key Business Considerations

Preparing for Changes for European Branches and Subsidiaries

Safeguarding Your Intellectual Property: Copyright, Trademarks, Designs, and Patents

Continuing to Comply with Environmental Standards

Maintaining Product Safety Standards

Keeping Up with Other Legal and Regulatory Changes

What to Do If You Have a .eu Domain Name for Your Company Website

GDPR and Managing the Personal Data of EU Citizens

Reviewing Your Business Contracts

Chapter 9: Carrying Out a Brexit Impact Assessment for Your Business

Assessing the Impact on Your Workforce

Considering the Impact on Trade and Logistics

Looking at the Money Side of Things

Bringing Standards, Licensing, and Qualifications Up to Date

Assessing IT and Data Implications

Covering Miscellaneous Considerations

Making Sure You Have a Contingency Plan

Part 4: The Part of Tens

Chapter 10: Ten (Or So) Ways to Protect Your Business against Brexit Uncertainty

Doing a Brexit Impact Assessment

Working with a “Dream Team” of Experts

Staying in the Loop on Brexit Developments

Engaging with Government Support and Business Resources

Keeping Your Foot On the Gas

Diversifying and Creating Multiple Streams of Income

Keeping Staff Engaged and Motivated

Communicating with Your Customers

Communicating with Your Suppliers

Chapter 11: Ten (Or So) Business Opportunities for a Post-Brexit World

Exploring New Markets Beyond the EU

Growing Domestic Demand for Products and Services

Capitalizing on Reduced Regulation

Solving Your Customers’ Brexit-Related Problems

Building Your Personal Reputation as a Leader in Your Industry

Automating Business Processes

Seeking Investment from Overseas Investors

Picking Up Business from Companies That Have Left the UK

Capitalizing on Homegrown Support for British Businesses

Chapter 12: Ten Brexit Developments to Keep an Eye On

The Transition Period

Trade Negotiations with the EU and Beyond

The Irish Border

Scottish Independence

Repatriation of UK/EU Laws to Westminster and Devolved Parliaments

Will Companies Pull Out of the UK?

The Changing Political Landscape in Britain

Workforce Pressures Affecting the Public and Private Sectors

The Impact on Currency and Financial Markets

Accessing Helpful Resources to Help You Stay Up to Date

Index

About the Author

Advertisement Page

Connect with Dummies

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 2

TABLE 2-1 UK Countries Brexit Vote Results

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

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Introduction

Welcome to Brexit For Dummies and thank you for choosing me to guide you through the tricky topic of Brexit.

When the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU) on June 23, 2016, the result sent shockwaves around the world. In the years since, we’ve witnessed a complex (and seemingly never-ending) negotiation process, all sorts of political point-scoring, and a whole heap of steaming uncertainty. This book is designed to cut through all that and get to the critical information you need to understand and navigate Brexit.

Let me say upfront that I’m not a politician, I’m not a political journalist, I’m not an economist, and I’m not a civil servant. So, what, you might be wondering, qualifies me to write Brexit For Dummies?

I’m a British business owner, investor, and entrepreneur. I own and run several businesses in the UK, each one impacted by Brexit in slightly different ways. This gives me a solid foundation to write a book aimed at others — especially those in business in the UK — who have been scratching their heads at the news and wondering what Brexit means for them.

And what if you’re not in the UK? What if you’re in Europe or the United States, for instance, and you find yourself looking at Brexit from the outside in, wondering what the heck is going on? If that’s the case, I welcome you to our (not very) sunny shores and look forward to giving you a Briton’s perspective on Brexit.

About This Book

Few words have the power to divide the nation like Brexit. Walk into any pub, shop, or office in the UK and ask the people inside what they think about Brexit, and you’ll get very different answers. In fact, the Brexit referendum divided opinion like nothing I’ve ever seen before. People who grew up together voted in opposite directions. Meals among friends descended into heated political debate. The “B-word” was banned from many a family gathering.

Few Brits were or are “on the fence” about Brexit. In my experience, most people in the UK feel pretty strongly one way or the other. In addition, most newspapers skewed heavily for or against Brexit.

Because of this, unbiased information about Brexit can be hard to come by. Yet, regardless of which way we voted, neutral information is exactly what we all need at this point in the Brexit journey. The UK has voted to leave the EU; when it does leave, we must all begin to navigate the UK’s new relationship with the EU.

For example, what happens to EU citizens living in the UK (and vice versa)? What might change for British businesses that export/import goods to/from the EU? How should businesses prepare for what comes next? What positive opportunities lie ahead for companies in the post-Brexit world?

In these pages, I answer all these questions and more — and always in an impartial way. You might say I’m on the fence and I’m staying there, at least for the duration of this book! Come join me up here. There’s plenty of room, and the view’s great.

Precisely because I’m a political “outsider,” I can deliver the unbiased information you need. In other words, I’m not trying to get you to vote for me, and I’m not trying to “spin” the facts to further my own agenda. Like you, I’m just trying to deal with Brexit, strip away the hype, and prepare myself and my businesses for life after Brexit.

So, as you may have guessed, impartiality is a core concept of this book. Here are two other concepts that Brexit For Dummies is built upon:

We get it — Brexit is a serious topic, with serious, real-world implications. But do we have to be bored to tears (or, worse, whipped up into a furious rage) while reading about it? I don’t think so. That’s why this book is designed to explore Brexit in an interesting, engaging way, as well as in a balanced way.

The UK’s relationship with the EU is complex and wide-reaching. To cover every aspect of negotiations and the UK’s future relationship with the EU would be impossible in a short, easy-to-read guide like this. That’s why this book leans more toward the business aspects of Brexit, as opposed to implications for areas like security, defense, foreign policy, and so on. For many people, whether they own a business or are employed in a business, it’s the business implications that present (potentially) the biggest headaches.

One final, practical thing to note about this book: Within this book, you may note that some web addresses break across two lines of text. If you’re reading this book in print and want to visit one of these web pages, simply key in the web address exactly as it’s noted in the text, pretending as though the line break doesn’t exist. If you’re reading this as an e-book, you’ve got it easy — just click the web address to be taken directly to the web page.

Foolish Assumptions

Most authors have a specific audience in mind as they write. I’m no different. So, while I was writing this book, I made some assumptions about you as a reader:

You’re looking for a balanced guide to Brexit, written by someone who’s not out to score political points or put the fear of God into you. You want the facts, and you want to be left to your own political opinions, thanks very much.

You sometimes feel like you’re suffering from information overload or Brexit exhaustion. You know you

need

to be informed about Brexit; you just want someone to pull together the “must-know” info in one easy-to-read resource.

You run a business or work in a business, and you’re concerned how Brexit might impact your everyday business processes. You want to know how to assess the potential impact and make a realistic plan for the future.

If that sounds like you (and I hope it does!), this book is just what you need.

Icons Used in This Book

To help you get the most out of this book, I highlight key points of advice with the following eye-catching icons. Look out for these helpful symbols throughout the book and you can be sure you’re picking up on the most important info:

You’ll no doubt want to commit certain info from this book to memory. But how do you know what’s key and what’s not? Check out this icon for the must-read Brexit info that you’ll want to remember.

I use this icon to highlight handy hints and tips that are designed to save you time or effort, or generally make your life a little bit easier as you navigate the world of Brexit.

This icon draws your eye to things to avoid, or areas where professional advice is a must.

Anything marked with the Technical Stuff icon is, well, a bit technical. It’s not essential to your understanding of the subject at hand, but if you’re a wonky sort, you’ll probably find this material fascinating!

Beyond This Book

In addition to the book you have in your hand, you can access some helpful extra content online. Check out the free Cheat Sheet for bonus Brexit content. You can access it by going to www.dummies.com and entering Brexit For Dummies in the Search box.

You can also find lots of additional information for business owners at www.dummies.com. Whether you’re just starting a business or looking to expand your skills in networking, leadership, project management or whatever, you’ll find plenty of inspiration and advice on the website.

Where to Go from Here

Right then, where do you want to start?

One of the great things about For Dummies books is that they’re designed to be read in any way that works for you. So, if you want to read the entire book from cover to cover, go for it.

But maybe you have a burning desire to understand how the UK came to hold a referendum on EU membership. In which case, skip ahead to Chapter 2 and read about the UK’s rocky relationship with the EU. Need to know how Brexit affects employees from the EU? Chapter 7 is what you’re looking for. Interested in potential business opportunities after Brexit? Turn to Chapter 11, my friend. You can pick and choose the chapters that appeal to you most, so flip through the table of contents and take it from there.

Not sure where to begin? That’s fine, too. Just turn the page and see what comes next.

Part 1

Getting Familiar with Brexit

IN THIS PART …

Get a quick overview of Brexit.

Understand the ups and downs of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union.

Chapter 1

What Is Brexit and What Does It Mean for You?

IN THIS CHAPTER

Breaking down the UK referendum result and key issues that led to the result

Setting out the timeline for the UK’s exit from the EU

Delving into the key negotiation points for the UK’s withdrawal agreement

Attempting to get parliamentary consensus on the withdrawal agreement

Looking at the reaction from business leaders

Preparing your business for Brexit and looking to the future

In 2016, the United Kingdom (UK), which comprises Great Britain and Northern Ireland, voted to leave the European Union (EU).

Europe had become a bitterly divisive issue in the country, and especially within the ruling Conservative Party. The country was essentially split down the middle, with “Remainers” on one side, arguing that the UK benefited greatly from membership in the EU, and “Leavers” (“Brexiters” or the even more jaunty-sounding “Brexiteers”) on the other, arguing that it was time to take back control from the EU.

The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, hoped that a referendum would settle the issue for at least a generation. Firmly on the Remain side, he took a gamble that the voting public would choose to stay in the EU, and the more Eurosceptic elements of his party would have to put up and shut up. But things didn’t quite work out the way he planned, and the public voted, albeit by a narrow margin, to say au revoir, adios, and auf Wiedersehen to the EU. And so began the British exit from the EU: Brexit.

In this chapter, I take you on a whistle-stop tour through the referendum, the Brexit process, and what the UK’s departure from the EU means for the UK and Europe — not to mention us regular folk who have to navigate this incredibly complex labyrinth.

The Votes Are In, But How Did We Get Here?

The 2016 referendum wasn’t the UK’s first vote on Europe. In 1975, there was a referendum on whether the UK should stay in the European Economic Community (EEC; see the sidebar “Do you speak Brexit?,” later in this chapter, for a breakdown of all the Brexit lingo you need to know). The result of that referendum was a firm “Yes, please, we’d like to stay in,” with 67.2 percent of voters voting in favor.

Looking at the 2016 results in more detail

Fast-forward a generation, and the 2016 referendum turned the previous result on its head, but by a narrower margin. Overall, 51.89 percent voted to leave the EU, while 48.11 percent voted to stay in.

But the UK is made up of four different countries, and, interestingly, the individual countries voted in quite different ways:

England voted Leave, by 53.38 percent to 46.62 percent.

Scotland voted Remain, by 62 percent to 38 percent.

Wales voted Leave, by 52.53 percent to 47.47 percent.

Northern Ireland voted Remain, by 55.78 percent to 44.22 percent.

Why did people vote to leave? Well, the answer will vary depending on who you ask. But some of the key reasons Leavers wanted out of the EU included the following:

Having to make financial contributions to the EU’s annual budget

Free movement of people and the perception that immigration from Europe was too high

Wanting the UK to be able to negotiate its own trade deals, instead of negotiating as part of the EU bloc

Perceived lack of UK “sovereignty” or control, with the UK being bound by EU rules and regulations

Meanwhile, those on the Remain side pointed out that, as with any EU member, the UK directly benefited from the EU budget — and from free movement of people and the EU single market, for that matter. Many Remainers also felt that the UK should be integrating closer with Europe, not distancing itself from its closest neighbours and biggest trading partner. Read more about these knotty referendum issues in Chapter 2.

Understanding the UK’s complex relationship with Europe

It’s fair to say that the UK never really bought into the dream of a fully integrated Europe, and it kept Europe at arm’s length whenever possible. When the EEC was formed in 1957, the UK didn’t sign up. And when the UK did apply, in the 1960s, its entry was vetoed by a skeptical France.

The UK eventually joined the club in the 1970s but remained, in its own way, distant from Europe. Over the years, the UK has voted against or opted out of key EU arrangements, such as the euro single currency or the Schengen passport-free travel area (see the nearby sidebar “Do you speak Brexit?”).

Throughout the 1990s and later, as Europe moved toward greater integration (political and social integration, as well as economic integration), Euroscepticism really began to grow in the UK. Nationalist parties like the UK Independence Party (UKIP), whose main mission was to get the UK out of the EU, grew in popularity and tapped into voter concerns around immigration in a very effective way. UKIP finally won a seat in the UK Parliament in 2014; a year later, in the run-up to the UK general election, the Conservative Party manifesto included the promise of an EU referendum. The Conservatives won, and the referendum took place a year later.

Read more about the UK’s past relationship with Europe in Chapter 2.

DO YOU SPEAK BREXIT?

Brexit is a topic that’s dominated by political and economic jargon, and loaded with more acronyms than you can shake a stick at. What does it all mean? Read on.

European Union (EU): The political and economic union that comprises 28 member states, with a total population of around 500 million. That’s including the UK, however — there will be 27 member states when the UK leaves the EU. So, when you hear people talk about the EU27, they’re referring to the remaining 27 countries of the EU, excluding the UK. The EU is built upon four key principles, or freedoms: free movement of people, goods, services, and money across all member states.Eurozone: Those members of the EU that have adopted the euro currency. Not all EU members are part of the eurozone; the UK, for example, chose not to adopt the euro, while newer EU members like Bulgaria and Romania are working toward adopting the euro.Schengen Area: An area of passport- and border-free travel within Europe. It comprises most (not all) EU countries, plus some non-EU countries, such as Switzerland. The UK did not participate in Schengen.European Economic Community (EEC): In very simple terms, the precursor to the EU. Created in 1957, it aimed to bring about greater economic integration between member countries in Europe. The UK wasn’t an original member of the EEC, and it didn’t end up joining until the 1970s. When the EU was eventually formed in the 1990s (reflecting the fact that European integration was now about much more than economic cooperation), the EEC was essentially folded into the EU.Single market (or common market): The EU’s free trade area. The single market means participating countries can trade freely with each other without trade barriers (like tariffs). For this to happen, all countries in the EU single market generally follow the same rules, regulations, and standards, and accept the free movement of people, goods, services, and money. You cannot be a member of the single market without accepting free movement of people.EU customs union: Different from the single market. A customs union means all members agree to charge the same tariffs on imports from outside the union. You can be a member of the customs union (and apply the same agreed-upon tariffs as the EU) but not be part of the single market — Turkey has this arrangement with the EU. Conversely, you can be a member of the single market but not the customs union — Norway has this arrangement with the EU.European Economic Area (EEA): An agreement that allows some non-EU countries to participate in the EU single market. The EEA is made up of all the EU countries, plus three extra countries: Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.European Free Trade Association (EFTA): A free-trade area comprising four countries: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. It ensures free trade and economic integration between members, but it also has close ties with the EU. EFTA members participate in the EU single market and Schengen, but are not part of the EU customs union.Soft Brexit: The term used for a future relationship in which the UK and EU remain closely aligned, perhaps by the UK remaining in the single market or customs union or both. Supporters of a soft Brexit argue that such a scenario would minimize disruption to businesses.Hard Brexit: The term used to signify more of a “clean break” with Europe, that would see the UK out of the EU, the single market, and the customs union — thereby leaving the UK free to negotiate its own trade deals and external tariffs with other countries. As negotiations wore on, hard Brexit also became synonymous with no-deal Brexit. Which brings me to… .Brexit deal: The Brexit withdrawal agreement (see Chapter 3), which sets out the terms for an orderly departure from the EU, including a transition period.No-deal Brexit: The UK leaving the EU without signing off on the withdrawal agreement, thereby ending free movement and participation in the single market and customs union overnight, with no transition period, which many people have argued could cause major disruption to businesses.Article 50: The clause in the EU’s constitution that sets out the path for member states to leave the EU. For the UK to formally start the process of leaving the EU (incidentally, the UK is the first independent country ever to decide to leave the EU), it had to trigger Article 50.Irish backstop: It’s complicated, and I recommend you turn to Chapter 3 for a more detailed explanation. But, put very simply, the backstop is an insurance policy in the withdrawal agreement that aims to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (which is part of the EU). The backstop means the UK and the EU would remain in a customs union until a formal trade deal is agreed on by the two parties — something that could take many years.

Breaking Down the Brexit Timeline

Although the UK voted to leave the EU back in 2016, so far, the Brexit process has taken longer than most people ever imagined — and, factoring in future trade negotiations, may not be properly concluded for years.

Interestingly, the word Brexit pre-dates the 2016 referendum by a few years — check out the sidebar “Where did the word Brexit come from?” to discover more.

The basic timeline is as follows:

June 23, 2016:

The British public votes to leave the EU.

March 29, 2017:

Prime Minister Theresa May (who took over after David Cameron quit in the wake of the referendum result) triggers Article 50, giving the UK two years to negotiate its exit from the EU.

April 18, 2017:

Theresa May calls a surprise general election, hoping a big win will give her greater negotiating power with the EU. But her plan backfires, and the election (held on June 8, 2017) sees her Conservative party actually lose its majority. The Conservatives remain in power, just about, by forming a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland, although May was politically weakened by the result.

June 2017:

Three months after triggering Article 50, the UK formally begins negotiating the terms of its withdrawal with the EU. Read more about both sides’ crack teams of negotiators in

Chapter 3

.

November 2018:

The EU and the UK publish their draft withdrawal agreement and a non-binding political declaration on future EU–UK relations. Both are swiftly approved by EU27 leaders.

January 15, 2019:

The UK Parliament finally gets to vote on whether to approve the negotiated deal (the original vote, scheduled for December 2018 was postponed). The deal is rejected by an overwhelming majority.

March 29, 2019:

Two years after Article 50, this is supposed to be the date that the UK actually leaves the EU. However, amidst chaotic scenes in the UK Parliament as the withdrawal deal was repeatedly rejected by Members of Parliament (MPs), Article 50 had to be extended and the UK’s exit was postponed by a couple of weeks.

April 12, 2019:

The new Brexit date … but not for long.

October 31, 2019:

The new, new Brexit date, as agreed between the EU27 and the UK at an emergency summit on April 10, 2019. With no immediate solutions in sight, and both sides wanting to avoid a no-deal Brexit, the delay is inevitable. However, should May manage to get her deal through Parliament before October 2019, the UK will be able to leave early.

December 31, 2020:

The transition period, as set out in the withdrawal agreement, ends. (Although, given the delay to Brexit, it’s likely we may see the transition period change as well.) During the transition period, the UK is still bound by EU rules and is part of the single market; free movement of people, goods, services, and capital can continue as normal. However, the transition period is dependent on approval of the withdrawal agreement. (Therefore, a no-deal Brexit means no transition period.)

December 31, 2022:

The transition period could be extended until this date, if both sides agree.

Turn to Chapter 3 to read more about the negotiation process, terms of the withdrawal agreement, and the chaotic parliamentary approval process. In Chapter 4, you can read more about the much-less-talked-about political declaration on future relations, and take a peek at how our future relationship might evolve.

WHERE DID THE WORD BREXIT COME FROM?

In 2016, the year of the referendum, Collins dictionary named Brexit the “word of the year,” due to the massive increase in use of the word. But where did the word come from?

Combining Britain and exit, the word Brexit was first used to describe the UK’s potential departure from the EU way back in 2012, long before David Cameron confirmed he would be holding a referendum on EU membership.

The word was inspired by Grexit, the name given to Greece’s possible exit from the euro single currency — a story that dominated news in Europe in 2012. (In the end, Grexit never came to pass, and Greece ended up staying in the eurozone.)

Taking inspiration from this, a man called Peter Wilding, founder of the British Influence think tank wrote in 2012 that, without a real push for Britain to lead in Europe, “then the portmanteau for Greek euro exit might be followed by another sad word, Brexit.”

It took a little while for the word to take off. In fact, we nearly had Brixit instead of Brexit; a few news sources, including the Economist and the Daily Mail originally wrote about the potential for a Brixit instead of Brexit. In the end, though, it was the exit bit that swung it, and, by the year of the referendum, Brixit had long faded from memory and all anyone talked about was Brexit.

And in case you’re wondering which side of the Brexit fence Wilding is on, during the referendum campaign itself, he campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU. In other words, we have a Remainer to thank for Brexit — well, the word, at least!

Looking at the Key Elements of the Brexit Negotiations

The withdrawal negotiations between the UK and the EU seemed to go on forever, but really they’re just the tip of the iceberg.

That’s because the withdrawal agreement only covers the UK’s departure from the EU. It doesn’t agree on critical elements of the future relationship between the two, such as trade. The withdrawal agreement is purely about getting the UK out of the EU in an orderly manner. Trade negotiations — and agreements that cover cooperation in areas like security and defense — will not begin until after the UK has left the EU. This was a big area of misunderstanding for a lot of people, who assumed the “Brexit deal” was essentially a trade deal.

So, what does this orderly exit involve? To ensure the UK’s exit would be as smooth as possible, the two sides negotiated the following key points as part of the withdrawal agreement (you can read more about these points in Chapter 3):

The

divorce bill,

or how much the UK has to pay to cover its existing commitments to the EU.

The

transition period

(also known as

implementation period

), which is designed to ensure a controlled transfer, and give governments and businesses time to prepare for life after Brexit.

The rights of EU citizens already living in the UK (and the rights of UK citizens living in the EU) to retain their residency status after Brexit. Also, that the free movement of people would continue until the end of the transition period. Theresa May had made it clear during negotiations that free movement of people would have to end after the transition period — it was one of her “red lines” that she refused to budge on.

The fact that the UK will have to abide by EU laws for the duration of the transition period — something that raised a lot of eyebrows among Brexiteers.

How to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The withdrawal agreement includes a provision for a temporary customs union between the UK and the EU until a trade deal is agreed upon, and this is known as the

backstop.

This backstop measure proved extremely unpopular among Brexiteers (and even many Remainers), even though it was designed to prevent a hard border and protect peace on the island of Ireland.

The UK’s ongoing relationship with the EU in areas such as trade is not part of the withdrawal deal because, at the time of writing, none of that has been negotiated yet. The political declaration (see Chapter 4) sets out a vague aim to agree on a trading relationship that’s as close as possible, but it avoids any specific details.

Deal or No Deal? Brexit Goes Down to the Wire

Although the EU27 leaders signed off on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration, Theresa May had her hands full trying to get approval from the UK Parliament.

The original parliamentary vote, which was scheduled for December 2018, was postponed at the last minute when it became obvious that almost no one in Parliament was prepared to support the deal. The Irish backstop was the main objection for most people, amidst concerns that it could inadvertently trap the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU — without the option to withdraw from that customs union in the future.

The vote eventually took place in January 2019, at which point the UK Parliament spectacularly rejected (by a record majority) the deal that May and her team had spent almost 18 months negotiating.

But, like a fading Hollywood franchise that refuses to die, Theresa May brought the withdrawal deal back for a second vote, and a third, both in March 2019. Both times, Parliament rejected the deal. With just a couple of weeks to go until the intended exit date, the UK was on the verge of crashing out of the EU with no approved deal, meaning no transition period and potential chaos for UK businesses.

The EU looked on open-mouthed as chaotic scenes unfolded in Parliament. Meanwhile, the British public (and their Parliament) split further into factions: Some wanted to leave the EU with no deal, some wanted to delay Brexit and start negotiations again, some called for Brexit to be canceled altogether (a prospect that the EU had paved the way for when it agreed that the UK could just revoke Article 50 without getting the EU’s agreement), and many called for a second EU referendum.