Geopolitics and Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Region E-Book

Yunis Gurbanov

• Herausgeber: transcript Verlag
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Serie: Edition Politik
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 503

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024

Beschreibung

Could the Caspian Region replace Russia's or the Persian Gulf's immense energy potential with their energy resources? Yunis Gurbanov explores the strategic importance of the region in post-USSR Eurasian policies of major global actors, namely China, the EU, the USA, and Russia, and examines Azerbaijan's, Kazakhstan's, and Turkmenistan's oil and gas resources as alternatives to conventional suppliers. He shows that the Caspian region's resources could serve as alternative energy sources on a global level, mitigating dependence on traditional suppliers and stabilizing energy prices.

Leseprobe

Yunis Gurbanov holds a BA in Art Manager and an MA in International Relations from Azerbaijani State University, an MA in Governance and Political Studies from the Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, an LLM in European Law from the Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, a Master in Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University in New York City, and Ph.D. in Politcal Science from the Cologne University of Germany. He tutored at the Institute for International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne. He conducted scientific research and worked at the Harriman Institute of Columbia University in New York City and Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. He worked in state, non-state and academic positions in Azerbaijan, Germany, and the USA.

Could the Caspian Region replace Russia's or the Persian Gulf's immense energy potential with their energy resources? Yunis Gurbanov explores the strategic importance of the region in post-USSR Eurasian policies of major global actors, namely China, the EU, the USA, and Russia, and examines Azerbaijan's, Kazakhstan's, and Turkmenistan's oil and gas resources as alternatives to conventional suppliers. He shows that the Caspian region's resources could serve as alternative energy sources on a global level, mitigating dependence on traditional suppliers and stabilizing energy prices.

Die freie Verfügbarkeit der E-Book-Ausgabe dieser Publikation wurde ermöglicht durch POLLUX – Informationsdienst Politikwissenschaft

und die Open Library Community Politik 2024 – einem Netzwerk wissenschaftlicher Bibliotheken zur Förderung von Open Access in den Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften:

Hauptsponsor: Fachinformationsdienst Politikwissenschaft – POLLUX Vollsponsoren: Technische Universität Braunschweig | Carl von Ossietzky-Universität Oldenburg | Universitätsbibliothek der FernUniversität Hagen | Freie Universität Berlin – Universitätsbibliothek | Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen | Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main | Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Bibliothek – Niedersächsische Landesbibliothek | TIB – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek | Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin | Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen | Universitätsbibliothek Eichstätt-Ingolstadt | Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München | Max Planck Digital Library (MPDL) | Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | Ruhr-Universität Bochum | Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Carl von Ossietzky, Hamburg | SLUB Dresden | Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin | Universitätsbibliothek Chemnitz | Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Darmstadt | Universitätsbibliothek „Georgius Agricola“ der TU Bergakademie Freiberg | Universitätsbibliothek Kiel (CAU) | Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig | Universität Wien | Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Düsseldorf | Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Münster | Universitäts- und Stadtbibliothek Köln | Universitätsbibliothek Bielefeld | Universitätsbibliothek der Bauhaus-Universität Weimar | Universitätsbibliothek Kassel | Universitätsbibliothek Osnabrück | Universitätsbibliothek St. Gallen | Universitätsbibliothek Vechta | Vorarlberger Landesbibliothek | Zentral- und Hochschulbibliothek Luzern | Zentralbibliothek Zürich | ZHAW Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften, Hochschulbibliothek Sponsoring Light: Bundesministerium der Verteidigung | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Dresden | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Technik, Wirtschaft und Kultur Leipzig | Bibliothek der Westsächsischen Hochschule Zwickau | Bibliothek der Hochschule Zittau/Görlitz | Hochschulbibliothek der Hochschule Mittweida | Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen (IfA) | Landesbibliothek Oldenburg | Österreichische Parlamentsbibliothek Mikrosponsoring: Bibliothek der Berufsakademie Sachsen | Bibliothek der Evangelische Hochschule Dresden | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Musik und Theater „Felix Mendelssohn Bartholdy“ Leipzig | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Bildende Künste Dresden | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Musik „Carl Maria von Weber“ Dresden | Bibliothek der Hochschule für Grafik und Buchkunst Leipzig | Bibliothek der Palucca-Hochschule für Tanz Dresden | Leibniz-Institut für Europäische Geschichte | Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) – Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Yunis Gurbanov

Geopolitics and Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Region

Developments after the Downfall of the Soviet Union

Political Science | Volume 172

Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche NationalbibliothekThe Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at https://dnb.dnb.de/

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (BY) license, which means that the text may be remixed, transformed and built upon and be copied and redistributed in any medium or format even commercially, provided credit is given to the author.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons license terms for re-use do not apply to any content (such as graphs, figures, photos, excerpts, etc.) not original to the Open Access publication and further permission may be required from the rights holder. The obligation to research and clear permission lies solely with the party re-using the material.

First published in 2024 by transcript Verlag, Bielefeld© Yunis Gurbanov

Cover layout: Maria Arndt, Bielefeld

https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839472934

Print-ISBN: 978-3-8376-7293-0

PDF-ISBN: 978-3-8394-7293-4

EPUB-ISBN: 978-3-7328-7293-0

ISSN of series: 2702-9050

eISSN of series: 2702-9069

I dedicate this work to the best motivators and the dearest people in my life. The first person I dedicate this work to is my dear dad, Tofig Yunis Gurbanov, who left us relatively early and unexpectedly. However, he had always believed in me no matter what happened and encouraged me to be good, fair, and honest, so I would like to use this opportunity to say: “Dad, I did it for you!"

The second person is my dear mom, Nargiz Vahid Alishova, who raised me as a good person and inspired me to work hard. She is my greatest motivation and my best friend. I want to tell my mom: “Mom, I love you so much! This work is for you!"

Overview

Cover

Titel

Impressum

Dedication

Table of Contents

List of tables

Table of Contents

Preface

Acknowledgement

List of abbreviations

List of figures, maps and tables

Chapter 1. Research overview, context and problematization

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Theoretical setting

1.2.1 Political realism

1.2.2 The history of political realism and political realism as a theory of international relations

1.2.3 Basic characteristics of political realism as a theoretical concept

1.2.4 Edward Hallett Carr and realism

1.2.5 Hans J. Morgenthau’s “Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace"

1.2.6 The six main principles of political realism as defined  by Hans Morgenthau

1.2.7 Geopolitics

1.2.8 Mackinder and his “Heartland"

1.2.9 Brzezinski and “the Grand Chessboard"

1.2.10  Political economy

1.2.11  Institutionalism

1.2.12  Theoretical characteristics of institutionalism

1.2.13  Comparison of realism and institutionalism

1.3 Methodology

Chapter 2. The Caspian Region and its role in the foreign policy of international political actors

2.1 The downfall of the USSR and the new states of the Caspian Region

2.1.1 The geostrategic significance of the Caspian Region

2.2 "The Great Game” (“Bolshaya Igra")

2.2.1 "The new Great Game"

2.2.2 Comparison between the “classical” and “new Great Game"

2.3 Conflicts as the major impediments to the regional security of the South Caucasus

2.3.1 Russia’s role

2.3.2 The first Nagorno‐Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan

2.3.3 Madrid Principles

2.3.4 The second Nagorno‐Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Chapter 3. Geopolitics in the Caspian Region

3.1 China’s policy in Central Asia

3.1.1 China’s policy in the South Caucasus

3.2 EU’s Central Asia policy

3.2.1 EU in the South Caucasus

3.3 US policy towards Central Asia

3.3.1 US policy in the South Caucasus

3.4 Russia’s policy towards Central Asia

3.4.1 Russia in the South Caucasus

3.5 Turkey

3.6 Iran

3.7 Azerbaijan

3.8 Kazakhstan

3.9 Turkmenistan

Chapter 4. The Caspian region’s energy resources and the history of their production and meaning for the world energy market

4.1 Azerbaijan

4.1.1 Oil industry history of Azerbaijan

4.1.2 “Neft Dashlari”

4.1.3 ACG

4.1.4 Energy industry after the acquisition of independence

4.1.5 Oil production

4.1.6 Azerbaijan’s oil dependence

4.1.7 Natural gas

4.1.8 Perspective natural gas fields

4.1.9 Azerbaijan as a significant natural gas exporter for the neighboring countries

4.2 Kazakhstan

4.2.1 Oil sector

4.2.2 Oil reserves and prospective oil fields

4.2.3 Production

4.2.4 Export

4.2.5 Natural gas production

4.2.6 Natural gas pipelines

4.3 Turkmenistan

4.3.1 Oil sector

4.3.2 Natural gas

4.3.3 China as the primary natural gas importer for Turkmenistan

4.3.4 Natural gas export to Russia

4.3.5 Turkmenistan as a potential natural gas supplier for Europe?

4.3.6 Economic difficulties of the country against the background of the gas sector

Chapter 5. The essential energy contracts between international energy concerns of the world and countries of the Caspian Region. The significant energy fields

5.1 "The Contract of the Century"

5.1.1 The signing of the contract and member companies of the agreement

5.1.2 Russia as the primary opponent of the singing of “the Contract of the Century"

5.1.3 Significance, positive and negative aspects

5.2 Shah Deniz natural gas project Stage‑1

5.2.1 Azerbaijan’s economic profit

5.3 Shah Deniz Stage‑2

5.3.1 Shareholders and agreements concerning the implementation

5.3.2 Development during last years and expectations

5.4 South Caucasus Pipeline

5.5 TANAP

5.5.1 Significance for Turkey and the EU

5.5.2 Hypothetical probability of Tehran’s joining

5.5.3 Increasing of export through Turkmen gas

5.6 Nabucco

5.6.1 Failure reasons

5.7 TAP

5.7.1 Significance for host countries

5.8 Kashagan

5.8.1 Resumed production after many years of delay

5.9 Tengiz

5.9.1 Expansion

5.10 Karachaganak

5.10.1  Important contracts and member companies

5.10.2  Production

5.10.3  Development stages

5.11 Galkynysh

5.11.1  Development

5.11.2  Member companies and their functions

5.11.3  Galkynysh as the primary natural gas export source of Turkmenistan

Chapter 6. Summary and Conclusion

6.1 A summary of primary findings and the results of hypotheses

6.2 Theoretical implications and further research

6.3 Policy recommendations

Appendices

List of references

Preface

This book looks at two central questions. First, does the Caspian Region have a strategic significance for the Eurasian policy of significant political actors of the world policy after the USSR’s fall? Second, can the oil and natural gas resources of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan be considered alternative energy sources to traditional sources such as Russia and the Persian Gulf countries? The research focuses mainly on the relevance of the Caspian Region in the foreign policy of China, the EU, the USA, and Russia. Additionally, it examines the oil and natural gas industries of the region’s newly independent states to measure these countries' energy potential. Finally, the research also looks at the role of oil and gas in these states' politics and economies.

Even though the Caspian Region is one of the world’s poorest regions, key political actors pay significant attention to this region. What factors drive the active foreign policy of the essential political actors of the world policy towards this region? In other words, one of the research puzzles is why, in their foreign policy towards Eurasia, the governments of China, the EU, the USA, and Russia pay close attention to the Caspian Region. Another research puzzle is the real energy potential of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Many books have claimed that these countries possess abundant oil and natural gas reserves after the USSR’s fall. However, the author has a different opinion. In other words, in contrast to the optimistic prognoses of some energy experts and the regional governments with regard to the giant energy reserves of the newly independent states, this book argues that the energy resources of these countries can never fully replace the immense energy potential of Russia or the Persian Gulf countries. Nevertheless, the author claims that the energy resources of the newly independent states of the Caspian Region could play the role of alternative energy sources in the world energy market to decrease its significant dependency on traditional energy suppliers. This could keep the price of energy resources in the world energy market stable.

Acknowledgement

First and foremost, I would like to express my deep gratitude to the project’s primary supervisor, Prof. Thomas Jaeger, for his exceptional support and continuous motivation as I worked on my Ph.D. thesis. Before working with him, I read his publications and two books and knew him from various political talk shows. Even though I was confident in my project’s scientific relevance, I thought he would not accept me, given the number of students who wanted to work with him. However, after having very constructive conversations, he expressed his belief in me and my project. Since then, he has been supporting me. His enthusiasm to help me through his valuable comments and feedback played a crucial role in writing an insightful dissertation.

I want to thank my second supervisor, Prof. Wolfgang Leidhold. All our discussions were exceptionally productive and constructive. He was always reachable. His recommendations helped me to improve the quality of the project significantly.

Every Ph.D. student knows that the work’s quality depends on his exceptional concentration and dedication to work. However, working and conducting an appropriate project without financial support is almost impossible. For this reason, it would be fitting to divide my Ph.D. dissertation into two periods: before having any financial support and after I won a scholarship for international Ph.D. students from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES). Thanks to this foundation, I have accomplished this project and my goals of researching at Columbia University in New York and Harvard University. My long discussions with the experts in these universities tremendously enriched the dissertation. I thank all from the FES who helped me, especially Ms. Dr. Kathrein Hölscher, Ms. Elisabeth Schulze Horn, Ms. Beate Eckstein, and Ms. Barbara Nauroth taking care of me and helping me to accomplish this project.

I thank my great friend Trio Wisudhanto for his permanent support and motivation. His continuous encouragement during challenging times helped me write and submit this project.

Last but not least, I am grateful to the best friends of my life, my mom and my dad, who believed, supported, and motivated me despite numerous difficulties at different stages of my life and while writing this work. I know it is impossible to compensate you for all sacrifices you have made for my well‐being, but I would be delighted if you would accept this work as a tiny mark of gratitude for everything you have done for me! You are the best, and I love you!

List of abbreviations

ACG

Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli

AIOC

Azerbaijan International Operating Company

AKP

Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party)

APEX

Analysis of Petroleum Exports

ATA

AMEC Tekfen Azfen

Azerbaijan SSR

Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic

BB

Billion Barrels

BBL/D/1K

Thousands of Barrels Per Day

BBS

Beineu‐Bozoi‐Shymkent

BCF

Billion Cubic Feet

BCM

Billion Cubic Meters

BMI

Business Monitor International

BN

Billion

BP

British Petroleum

BPD

Barrel Per Day

BT

Billion Ton

BTBA

Bukhara‐Tashkent‐Bishkek‐Almaty

BTC

Baku‐Tbilisi‐Ceyhan

BTE

Baku‐Tbilisi‐Erzurum

BTK

Baku‐Tbilisi‐Kars

CAC

Central Asia Centre

CACP

Central Asia – China Pipeline

CAS

Central Asia – Center

CCIC

Consolidated Contractors International Company

CEIC

European Institutional Investor Company

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

CNPC

China National Petroleum Corporation

CPC

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

CSTO

Collective Security Treaty Organization

DSKP

Dauletabad‐Sarakhs‐Khangiran

EAEC

Eurasian Economic Community

EaP

Eastern Partnership

EBRD

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

EC

European Commission

EDPSA

Exploration Development and Production Sharing Agreement

EEU

Eurasian Economic Union

ENP

European Neighborhood Policy

EP

European Parliament

EPCA

Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

EPCC

Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning

EPDK

Energy Market Regulatory Authority

EU

European Union

EUCO

European Council

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

FEED

Front‐End Engineering and Design

FGP‐WPMP

Future Growth Project and Wellhead Pressure Management Pro‐ject

FID

Final Investment Decision

FPSA

Final Production Sharing Agreement

GCA

Gaffney, Cline & Associates

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GPP

Gas Processing Plant

GUS

Gas‐supply Unique System

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

IIR

Iran Islam Revolution

IRI

Islamic Republic of Iran

ISIS

Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

KKK

Korpedzhe‐Kurt Kui

KMG

KazMunaiGaz

KPC

Karachaganak Processing Complex

KPDL

Karachaganak Project Development Limited

KPO

Karachaganak Petroleum Operating

KTG

KazTransGas

KTO

KazTransOil

LNG

Liquefied Natural Gas

MB

Million Barrel

MBD

Million Barrel Per Day

MCM

Million Cubic Meters

MCM/D

Million Cubic Meter Per Day

MT

Million Ton

NAR

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NCOC

North Caspian Operating Company

NCSPSA

North Caspian Sea Production Sharing Agreement

NGO

Non‐Governmental Organizations

NKAR

Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region

NYC

New York City

OGJ

Oil Gas Journal

OKIOC

Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company

OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

OSCE

Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

PfP

Partnership for Peace

PSA

Production Sharing Agreement

PSPA

Production‐Sharing Principles Agreement

SCF

Standard Cubic Foot

SCO

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

SCP

South Caucasus Pipeline

SCPC

South Caucasus Pipeline Company

SD

Shah Deniz

SD 2

Shah Deniz 2

SDB‐PR

Shah Deniz Bravo, Production and Risers

SDB‐QU

Shah Deniz Bravo, Quarters and Utilities

SGC

Southern Gas Corridor

SOCAR

State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic

SOFAZ

State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan

SU

Soviet Union

SREB

Silk Road Economic Belt

STEO

Short‐Term Energy Outlook

TANAP

Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline

TAP

Trans Adriatic Pipeline

TAPI

Turkmenistan‐Afghanistan‐Pakistan‐India

TCF

Trillion Cubic Feet

TCM

Trillion Cubic Meters

TCO

Tengizchevroil

TCP

Trans Caspian Pipeline

TÜRKPA

Türk Dili Konuşan Ülkeler Parlamenter Asamblesi (Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic‐Speaking Countries)

U.S. EIA

US Energy Information Administration

UN

United Nations

USA

United States of America

USSR

Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

USTDA

U.S. Trade and Development Agency

WW I

World War I

WW II

World War II

XUAR

Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region

List of figures, maps and tables

Map 1:Mackinder’s “Heartland” (“Geographic Pivot of History,” 1904) Map 2:Brzezinski’s map of the Eurasian ChessboardMap 3:The countries of the Caspian SeaMap 4:The strategic energy ellipseMap 5:The territory perceived as a region for the political and diplomatic confrontation between the British and Russian Empires from the end of 19 to the beginning of 20 centuryPicture 1:Second Afghan War, 1878. “Save Me from My Friends!” Amir Sher Ali of Afghanistan endeavors to stand between the Russian bear and the British lion as each eye the other with suspicion. Sir John Tenniel’s cartoon, 1878, Shortly after the outbreakMap 6:BTC pipelineMap 7:The South CaucasusMap 8:Territories of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia after the first Nagorno‐Karabakh warFigure 1:Azerbaijan crude oil productionFigure 2:Azerbaijan’s oil and gas export routesFigure 3:Oil production and gross domestic product growth rates, 2000–2013Figure 4:Azerbaijan GDPFigure 5:Oil production forecasts in Azerbaijan Figure 6:Budget revenues, spending, and deficit in Azerbaijan (bln. AZN) Figure 7:Azerbaijan natural gas consumption by sectorFigure 8:Kazakhstan Crude Oil Production between April 2022‐March 2023Figure 9.:Kazakhstan’s oil production between October 2022‐October 2023Table 1:Kazakhstan major oil and gas fieldsFigure 10:Kazakhstan crude oil exports by destinationMap 9:The major crude oil pipelines of KazakhstanFigure 11:Share of natural gas usage in energy consumption.Map 10:The major natural gas pipelines of KazakhstanFigure 12:Turkmenistan crude oil productionFigure 13:China’s natural gas import by source, 2021Map 11:Shah Deniz Contract AreaMap 12:SCP expansionMap 13:TANAPFigure 14:World natural gas reserves for the end of 2021Map 14:Nabucco projectMap 15:TAPMap 16:Tengiz fieldMap 17:Karachaganak fieldMap 18:Galkynysh natural gas field, Mary provinceMap 19:TAPI route

Chapter 1. Research overview, context and problematization

Abstract

The first chapter introduces the central research problem and considers the geopolitical and energy issues in the Caspian Region in the broader context. Moreover, a significant part of the chapter is dedicated to the theoretical settings of the work. The section starts with the theory of political realism, which is utilized to look at the Caspian region’s importance and role in contemporary geopolitics. Then, it narrates the history of political realism as one of the most important theoretical concepts of international relations. Besides, some essential characteristics of political realism are illustrated to illuminate it as a theoretical concept. Some prominent realists, such as Edward Hallett Carr and Hans J. Morgenthau, are also looked at. Another theory considered is institutionalism, which is used to analyze the binding energy contracts between international energy concerns and countries of the Caspian Region and the region’s significant energy fields. The chapter also compares realism and institutionalism. The last part of the chapter considers the methodological framework of the book.

1.1 Introduction

The “Russo‐Persian Treaty of Friendship,” signed on 26 February 1921, between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and Iran, divided the Caspian Sea into two parts. According to the treaty, only these two political actors had access to the Caspian Sea. Therefore, until the collapse of the Soviet Union (SU), the Caspian region was divided between the SU and Iran. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan became independent when the SU collapsed in 1991, and so, at present, there are five states around the Caspian Sea.

The USSR’s fall changed the region’s geopolitical constellation entirely, and the Caspian Region became a region of very complex political interests. As a result, both international actors and regional powers have their interests and political strategies in the Caspian Region.

For instance, disputes between Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan over the Caspian Sea’s legal status had gone almost 27 years.1The convention on the Caspian Sea status was signed between Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan in Kazakhstan on 12 August 2018. Due to the agreement, the central area of the Sea’s surface remains in the states' everyday use, and the bottom and subsoil are divided into sections by agreement between them based on international law. It is remarkable that even 27 years after the USSR’s fall, the states could not agree on whether the Caspian Sea should be perceived as a sea or a lake.

Until the collapse of the USSR, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan had to adhere to Russia and Iran’s existing agreement on the Caspian Sea’s legal status, according to which Russia was officially an owner of the Caspian Sea seabed along with Iran. Consequently, the newly independent countries had no legal right to sign energy contracts with energy companies to develop and produce the Caspian Basin’s energy resources. However, this situation changed after signing the “Contract of the Century” agreement between the Azerbaijani government and international energy companies in September 1994.

This contract was path‐breaking for Azerbaijan’s energy industry and state policy and the other two newly independent Caspian Sea countries, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Both countries also started to pursue a more active policy and laid claim to their sectors of the Caspian Sea. Russia and Iran were against the new political constellation in the region because they considered international political actors and energy companies a significant threat to their political dominance in the region.

Some factors can define the strategic significance of the Caspian region. However, there are two crucial issues, which demonstrate the importance of the Caspian region for the states involved in the geopolitics of the region:

The appreciable stocks of energy reserves;

The geographical position.2

The Caspian region plays an essential role in the different political actors' energy policy due to its rich hydrocarbon resources. In general, energy diplomacy is a crucial element of modern international relations. Energy diplomacy has played an enormous role in international relations after the oil crisis of the 1970s. It affects the states' economy and policy, but at the same time, energy diplomacy is used as a “political weapon” to attain political goals. For instance, Russia uses its hydrocarbon recourses, especially natural gas, as a political tool in its foreign policy towards European countries. This was at the heart of the Ukrainian energy crisis in 2006.

Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas is quite remarkable. According to statistics, Russia‐Gazprom’s leading natural gas company exported 199 billion (bn.) cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in 2019.3 This is the highest volume of natural gas ever exported in the history of Russia. The European Union (EU) imports significant Russian natural gas quantities, so almost 30% of Russian oil and natural resources are exported to EU countries. Consequently, Some EU countries, such as Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, depend 100% on Russian natural gas.

Due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the EU countries get their oil and natural gas resources from other sources. Moreover, the Russian government decided to decrease the flow of energy resources to the European market. It might be hypothetically predicted that the EU countries would continue importing oil and natural gas from Russia when the war in Ukraine is over.4The reasons are pretty simple. First, the EU country’s natural gas demand is so high that only Russia can meet this demand. Furthermore, Russian gas is relatively cheaper than gas from other sources such as Qatar, Algeria, etc.5

Some local experts6argue that Azerbaijan,7 Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan can significantly substitute Russian energy exports to Europe.8However, this thesis argues that it is not so. The newly independent countries' governments manipulate the amount of oil and natural gas resources to get an advantage in the new political constellation. Therefore, incontrasttoother expectations and prognoses concerning the enormous role of the Caspian states8 in the energy diversification policy of the EU,9this book does not claim that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan’s energy potential can be compared to Russia’s vast energy potential. However, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan could offer alternative energy sources to the world energy market and decrease energy importers' energy dependency in the European energy market on traditional energy sources such as Russia and the countries of the Persian Gulf.

Since the energy sector is the most critical branch for all states of the Caspian Sea, energy cooperation with international actors and international energy companies is crucially essential to the Caspian states' economy, especially for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Moreover, the newly independent states of the region consider energy a crucial political and economic “tool” to protect their statehood and independence. For this reason, energy diplomacy in the Caspian Region should not be treated merely from a financial point of view. Instead, they should also be seen as essential tools of political power.

Azerbaijan is very interested in energy partnerships with the West. The Baku‐Tbilisi‐Ceyhan (BTC) oil project and Shah Deniz (SD) natural gas projects are good examples of this partnership. The EU aims to decrease its dependency on traditional energy sources by importing oil and natural resources from the Caspian Basin. In its turn, Azerbaijan profits from the energy partnership with the EU economically and politically. The EU’s political support is vital for Azerbaijan.

For the diversification of the EU’s energy sources, a final agreement between the Azerbaijani government and the EU was signed on 17 December 2013. According to this agreement, Azerbaijan exports natural gas extracted from the Shah Deniz 2 (SD 2) gas field to Europe via Georgia and Turkey. The natural gas is supplied from Greece (Komotini), where the Trans‐Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) connects with the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to Albania and under the Adriatic Sea to Italy.

Also, it is planned to increase natural gas transport from Italy further on to Western Europe. If Turkmenistan’s natural gas is transported via this pipeline, this project might be a significant step toward the diversification of the natural gas sources of the EU. Due to its possible game‐changing role in diversifying the European natural gas sources, the EU backs this project.10The European Commission (EC) has granted the TAP the status of a “Project of Common Interest.”11

In general, Azerbaijan is relatively significant to international political actors due to its energy resources and geographical position between Iran and Russia, which don't have “warm” political relations with western countries. Some prominent politicians and political experts have emphasized the strategic importance of Azerbaijan in the Caspian Region. For instance, President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor from 1977–81, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who is recognized as one of the critical thinkers on modern international relations, characterizes Azerbaijan in his political work “The Grand Chessboard” as the vitally important “cork” that controls access to the “bottle” that contains the riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia:12

“Azerbaijan’s vulnerability has wider regional implications because the country’s location makes it a geopolitical pivot. It can be described as the vitally important “cork” controlling access to the “bottle” contains the riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. An independent, Turkic‐speaking Azerbaijan, with pipelines running from it to the ethnically related and politically supportive Turkey, would prevent Russia from exercising amonopoly on access to the region and would thus also deprive Russia of powerful political leverageoverthe policies of the new Central Asian states. Yet Azerbaijan is very vulnerable to pressures from powerful Russia to the north and Iran to the south. There are twice as many Azeris—some estimate as many as 20 million—living in northwestern Iran as in Azerbaijan. That reality makes Iran fearful of potential separatism among its Azeris, and hence it is quite ambivalent regarding Azerbaijan’s sovereign status, despite the two nations’ shared Muslim faith. As a result, Azerbaijan has become the object of combined Russian and Iranian pressures to restrict its dealings with the West.”

The Caspian Region is located at the cross of West‐East and North‐South corridors, so it is situated between the growing European and Asian energy markets and in the neighborhood of the largest energy sources, such as the Middle East and Russia.

The choice of transport routes is another essential characteristic of the new geopolitical constellation in the region. Almost all pipeline routes crossed vast areas of Russia even after the collapse of the USSR. However, after completing the BTC exporting Azerbaijani oil from the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (AGC) field via Georgia and Turkey to Europe, the Russian transport monopoly was broken in 2006. The project was backed by the EU and the United States of America (USA) and had a tremendous political impact.

1.2 Theoretical setting

Several political theories in international relations are used to study foreign policy, geopolitical, and states' energy interests. These theoretical concepts are valuable tools to measure the behaviors of international political actors. This work is based on four theoretical concepts: realism (international relations), geopolitics, political economy, and institutionalism, so the second chapter considers the core ideas of these theories.

1.2.1 Political realism

The study of international relations as a separate discipline resulted from World War I (WWI), which led to its birth as a new discipline.13 Scholars of international relations focus mainly on the study of states and interstate relations in international relations.14

Realism is one of the most central concepts of international relations. An essential characteristic of political realism is the definition of international relations' basic principles in the context of a realistic paradigm. The actors of international relations adhere to a so‑called “realistic political behavior strategy” because of international relations' real nature.15

Somescholarsarguethatpoliticalrealism’stheoryhaslostitsrelevancewiththeendofthe ColdWarbetweentheUSSRandtheUSA.16#_bookmark30Someadherentsofrealismhaveevenchanged their viewsandopinions.TheprominentexpertsofinternationalrelationslikeJ.Legroand A. Moravcsik find political realism an obsoletetheoretical concept:17

“Our criticism of recent realist theory is not a semantic quibble, an invitation to yet another purely abstract debate about the labeling and relabeling of international relations ideal‐types, or a philosophical inquiry into the development of research paradigms. It is a direct challenge to the theoretical distinctiveness of contemporary realism, one with immediate and significant practical implications. Recent realist theory has become a hindrancerather than a help in structuring theoretical debates, guiding empirical research, and shaping both pedagogy and public discussion. It no longer helps to signal the analyst’s adherence to specific deeper assumptions implicated in any empirical explanation of concrete events in world politics.”

However, the Caspian Region, generally, the post‐soviet region, differs from others due to its unique political nature. Therefore, the critical elements of the realist paradigm are relevant to geopolitics in the Caspian region. The regional conflicts, authoritarian or semi‐authoritarian states, the recent illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, and the Russian aggression against Ukraine’s sovereignty are the events that clearly show that the post‐Soviet region’s political processes deserve to be treated differently from other regions. Consequently, if the political processes in more or less democratic areas of the world are considered in the frames of the “soft power” conception, in contrast, the political constellation of the Caspian region should be treated through the “hard power” concept, an essential indicator of political realism.

The following factors characterize the political situation in the Caspian region:

Geopolitical competition between different political actors;

Absence of any political norms;

The egocentric attitude of the state;

Lack of trust between states.

Therefore, even though some scholars argue that political realism is obsolete as a political theory, it is still the most appropriate theoretical concept to explain current geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

1.2.2 The history of political realism and political realism as a theory of international relations

Political realism has a long history. Nicole Machiavelli, Carl von Clausewitz, andother prominent scholars, politicians, and diplomats played an essential role in studyingpolitical realism. Even though we primarily know political realism as an ideologicalconceptintheworksofsomeoutstandingscholarslikeThucydides,18 Machiavelli,19#_bookmark34the worksofsomefamoustheoristslikeE.Carr,20H.Morgenthau,21CarlvonClausewitz22andotherrealistscholarsplayedacrucialroleinthepopularizationofpoliticalrealism.Politicalrealism as a political ideology arose in the USA in the 1930s and the 1940s of the last century.One of the primary reasons for popularizing this concept was the authoritarian regimes'appearancearound Europe.

H. Carr wrote the first fundamental work in the style of modern political realism. “The Twenty Years Crisis: 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations” waspublished in 1939. However, the first work that described some fundamental political realism principles was George F. Kennan’s primary work: “Long Telegram.”23

Political realism is a form of a political approach to international relations based ona state‐centric political vision.24Consequently, the theory considers international relationsas interstate relations and the states as the only real political players. Political realism seesindividualstates'interestsinglobalpoliticsastheonlyfundamentalelementofinternationalrelations.

The main factors in international relations are national interests, the sovereignty of the state, and the balance of powers. This triad forms the basic principles of political realism. These three principles are seen as central to achieving the goals of states in international relations.

The actors use all possible means to achieve their goals in international relations. As political actors, they are willing to achieve their primary goals in any possible way, even if that means conflict and war. So, it follows that conflicts and wars are integral parts of international relations. Legal and moral principles have no value in international relations. Consequently, achieving complete peace through extant legal and ethical norms is impossible. Great powers only use notions like rights and morals to attain their goals. Otherwise, such concepts are simply ignored.25

One of political realism’s most critical ideas is anarchism’s existence in international relations. For this reason, the state, the main actor in international relations, can rely only on itself. However, since the international arena is characterized as anarchic by nature, the creation of alliances, coalitions and partnerships that promote power expansion is crucial for all actors of international relations. Especially the relatively small states have to collaborate with significant political actors because of preserving their sovereignty:26

“The Security Dilemma is the notion that in a context of uncertainty and bounded rationality perceived external threats (real or imagined) generate feelings of insecurity in those states that believe themselves to be the targets of such threats, thereby leading those states to adopt measures to increase their power and capability to counteract those threats (alliance creation, arms build‐ups, and so on.”

1.2.3 Basic characteristics of political realism as a theoretical concept

Political realism can, in short, be characterized by the following signs:

There are no steady rules in international relations, so they are based on anarchism and interstate political conflicts;

The states are the main and only actors in international relations;

The primary difference between the internal political systems of the countries andinternational relations is that international relations are unpredictable. In contrast, the internal policy is controlled and regulated by a system of law.

Existing norms are not essential in the anarchic political world system.

Since the international political arena is considered chaotic and anarchic, all states aspire to survive in the system of international relations. Therefore, preserving their existence and territorial integrity is the central goal of all states.

The primary tool in the anarchic world system is power and mostly military power.

The states have to be able to defend their political interests even through “hard power.” Therefore, a state’s use of military and economic power to protect its interests and goals in the international political arena is acceptable.

Since survival is the primary goal, all must increase their military power and cooperate with other political actors in international relations in terms of the security of their existence.

Once powers possess more authority and military power of enormous significance in international relations, relatively “small” participants of this “game” either lose their existence or have to accept being controlled by the “great” powers.

1.2.4 Edward Hallett Carr and realism

E.H. Carr is one of the most prominent political realism scholars who defined realism’s central principles. There are some works of E.H. Carr dedicated to the study of international relations and political realism. However, the critical work is “The Twenty Years' Crisis: 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations.” The book was written in the style of famous political scholars and philosophers like N. Thucydides, N. Machiavelli, and T. Hobbes.

In this work, E.H. Carr shares his thoughts concerning international relations. According to him, this work was written to resist a kind of dangerous impulse in assessing international relations. Moreover, he has a critical point of view regarding utopian ways of seeing international political relations, namely, ignorance of international relations' essential aspect as “military power.”27 Additionally, he criticizes the lack of a realistic approach to international relations in a utopic perception of international relations. He underlines the point that “hard power” has an enormous meaning in international relations.28

According to him, the Italian thinker Machiavelli put forward three primary principles that later formed the basis of political realism:29

History is a sequence of causes and effects. It means that it can be analyzed and understood.

Incontrasttotheutopian understanding of the political processes, Machiavelli claims that it is not the theory that creates practice, but practice establishes the theory.

Politics is not derived from morality as the scholars of utopic school claim it, but a politically dominant group plants morality. Morality is the product of power.

E. H. Carr says that international relations follow the same pattern. Dominant powers create so‑called theories of international morals. Moreover, he claims that politicians use notions like morals, justice, etc., to hide their state’s fundamental interests and create a negative image of other nations. Such attempts are merely to legitimize their interests, as a rule, these theories are helpful for dominant groups to impose their interests and point of view on the whole community.30

So, taking into account the world political system at the end of the 20th and thebeginning of the 21st century, we may agree with Carr, who thinks that since 1918 theEnglish‐speaking peoplehavedominatedtheworld.Thus,moderntheoriesservetomaximize their superiority and power in the international arena.31Additionally, he claimsthatrealismdoesnotdealwithanymoralnorms.Thus,themoralsininternationalrelationsare based on real politics. Carr thinks that international relations and politics cannot bebasedonuniversalethicalnorms,sotherearenouniversalmoralsorinterestsininternationalrelations.Thestatesinsistonuniversalnormsandbenefitstorealizeinterests.32

From his perspective, it is crucially important to understand that there is no place for utopian views in international relations. As an argument, E.H.Carr claims that World War II (WW2) happened because of abstract idealism. Therefore, the intellectual imaginations of a world without conflict led to a flawed assessment of reality.33

1.2.5 Hans J. Morgenthau’s “Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace"

Without any doubt, one of the most prominent scholars of political realism who played a significant role in the popularization of political realism as a concept of international relations is H. Morgenthau. Morgenthau’s most famous work is “Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace,” published in 1948. H. Morgenthau defined some fundamental concepts of modern political realism. The book is regarded as having laid the foundations of political realism in the USA and worldwide.

Morgenthau asserts that international politics is a competition of power, and power is a tool for controlling human minds and actions. Morgenthau sees the struggle for power as a competition between states to influence world policy. The main goal of all these political actors is to expand their authority and power. According to Morgenthau, authority should be accepted as the primary source of all states' maximal security and welfare. He argues that there are two main possible ways for states to assert authority: “military power” and “diplomacy,” which enable them to guarantee their authority and security.34

In the modern world, notions such as “national interests” or “state interests” are used instead of “power.” H. Morgenthau believes that political actors' aspiration to increase their authority in the international political arena leads to a “power balance.” Morgenthau sees this as the only way to guarantee security and save the world.35

Morgenthau has only two aspects: international law and morals, which hold back political actors within socially tolerable bounds. However, believing in peace based on international law and morals would be very unrealistic. Therefore, Morgenthau calls this process an illusion and an idealist scholar’s inexcusable mistake. The collective security strategy cannot solve the problem of war or peace.36

1.2.6 The six main principles of political realism as defined  by Hans Morgenthau

According to Morgenthau, there are six main principles of political realism. These principles are explained in the first paragraphs of his work-"Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace”:37

Objective laws govern politics just like they do in society. These laws are connected very closely with human nature, so realism is the only rational theory that can cover all these laws.

The main factor of political realism is rational self‐interest. This notion enables us to understand politics as a separate part of humanity. Political realism urges rational policy. Therefore, once a rational system is a valid policy, it decreases risks and increases gains.

In the context of political realism, the notion of interest is not constant but changeable. Therefore, it is connected very closely with the political and cultural context of international relations. The same principle is closely aligned to not only “interest” but also other notions such as “power” and “political balance” in international affairs.

Even though political and moral norms are accepted by political realism in general, it is almost impossible to achieve significant success in the international political arena by following ethical standards. For this reason, moral norms have to be considered within the context of place and time. The central moral rules are “caution” and “moderation,” according to political realism.

There are strong contrasts between a specific nation’s moral norms and the ethical dimensions that rule the world, so political realism does not accept any particular nation’s moral tendencies.

The theory of political realism is closely connected to human nature. Therefore, the so‑called “political human being” is like an animal. For his reason, the “political human being” does not stop despite any moral norms.

1.2.7 Geopolitics

Geopolitics is used in this work as a theoretical concept to analyze and understand the political actors' policy involved in the Caspian Region’s geopolitics and their political behavior in the region. The theory studies the geopolitical relations between states and current geopolitical and geoeconomic processes in the world arena. Geopolitics considers allfactorsrelating to the territorial issues of the states, their borders, etc. However, if a short definition of geopolitics is needed, it might be: geopoliticsisthedisciplinethatstudieshowgeographyinfluences power relationships in international relations.38

The appearance of geopolitics at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries was caused not only by the popularization of international relations as a science but also because there was a need to understand newly established political constellations. Scholars like F. Ratzel (August 30, 1844 – August 9, 1904), R. Kjellén (13 June 1864– 14 November 1922), K. Haushofer (27 August 1869 – 10 March 1946), and H. Mackinder (15 February 1861–6 March 1947) are the founders of “institutional” geopolitics. F. Ratzel wrote the first work on geopolitics. However, he had never used this terminology in his works.Ratzel’s significant work on geopolitics is “Political Geography,” published in 1897.

Geopolitics was initially used as a term by another prominent geopolitics' prominent face, Swedish scholar Rudolf Kjellén. Rudolf Kjellén considered geopolitics as an integral part of sociology. According to him, geopolitics is a study about the geographical organism embodied in space. He made a legendary statement: “The state is a living organism:”39

“Die Geopolitik ist die Lehre vom Staat als geographischem Organismus oder als Erscheinung im Raume: also, der Staat als Land, Territorium, Gebiet, am bezeichnendsten als Reich (The theory of the state as a geographical organism or phenomenon in space: so, the state as a country, territory, area, most typically as an empire).”

Classic geopolitics focuses on two notions: land power and sea power. Therefore,geopolitics implies a kind of geopolitical confrontation between sea and land powers.40According to classical geopolitical theory, the center of civilization is Eurasia.41America(Seapower)islocatedinthecenteroftheSea.42ThemightiestseapoweristheUSA,whileRussia is very often the land power. Therefore, the Land and the Sea are constantsaccordingtothegeopoliticaltheory.ThegeopoliticalstrategyoftheSeaisAtlantic,43whilethe geopolitical conception of Eurasia is Eurasianism.44 Therefore, the Sea and Landrepresenttwo different strategies and pointsofview.

Likeotherdisciplinesandtheories,geopoliticsisincontinualdevelopment.45Hence,sincegeopoliticsisascience,therehavebeenmanydiscussionsongeopolitics'objectsandsubjects.46 As international relations are dynamic geopolitical theory changes as worldpoliticschange.Therefore,moderngeopoliticshasbecomeacomplexdisciplinecoveringthepolitical processesanalysis attheglobal, regional, andsub‐regional levels.47

1.2.8 Mackinder and his “Heartland"

The most prominent founder of geopolitics is Sir Halford John Mackinder. His work, “The Geographical Pivot of History,” is a geostrategic theory first proposed by Mackinder intheGeographicalJournal in 1904. Mackinder’s legendary work on geopolitics is accepted as one of the major works written on geopolitics. Mackinder came up with the concept of the “Heartland.”

The “Heartland” of Mackinder is the classic geopolitical theory that looks at the geopolitical rivalry between coastal and continental powers. In Mackinder’s view, continental power is better than sea power as a continental power would, by definition, possess the center of the world, that is, Eurasia. Consequently, once control over the continent is established, the continental power can control the rest of the world.48

Mackinder improved his thoughts on the geopolitical constellation of the worldproposed by himself in 1904 in his work “Democratic Ideals and Reality,” published in1919. HedefinesEurasiaas the “Heartland"49as the “central continent:”50 “WhorulesEastEuropecommandsthe Heartland;Who rules the Heartland commands the World‐Island;Whorulesthe World‐Islandcommands theworld."

He calls Eurasia “the heart of the world” or the “Heartland.” According to him, this space covers the Far East and a part of Eastern Europe, and it is the center of the world (see Map 1). He called the “Heartland” “the world island.” “The Round World and the Winning of the Peace,” written by Mackinder in 1943, brought some amendments to his previous work. However, he still thought that the Eurasian continent has enormous meaning for command in world policy.51

He played a significant role in forming strategic British foreign policy and proposedthe most subversive version of the world’s political history.52However, even though he isseen as a critical geopolitical scholar who played an enormous role in popularizing thisflow, somescientists do not accept his thoughts.53

We can argue that Mackinder is the founder of Anglo‐Saxon geopolitics epitomized by the USA and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) today. The policy of the USAandNATOcanbeseen through the “Heartland” strategy of Mackinder. Consequently, the USA and NATO have expanded to the East.

Somescholarsargue54thatthesuggested “Heartland” theoryisobsoleteandcontroversial.55However, considering the current geopolitical constellation in the worldpolicy and especially in Eurasia, we have to give some credit to Mackinder’s legendarywork,eventhoughsomestatementsofthisworkarerelativelycontroversial.ThegeopoliticalrivalrybetweentheUSAandRussiaisstillrelevant.Forinstance,theannexationofCrimeabyRussia, the Kremlin’s aggression against Ukrainian statehood, theexpansionofNATOtoEastEuropeandCentralAsia,etc.,can beseen throughthis prism.

Map 1: Mackinder’s “Heartland” (“Geographic Pivot of History,” 1904)56

1.2.9 Brzezinski and “the Grand Chessboard"

Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger are the faces of 20th century US foreign policy. Dr. Brzezinski occupied high office in the White House under several different administrations. He was a member of the presidential administration during the presidency of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson and later became an advisor to the 39th president of the USA, Jimmy Carter. He even served as Barack Obama’s foreign policy adviser in the final years of his life.

His books, “Out of Control,” “The Grand Failure,” “The Grand Chessboard,” “Power and Principle” reflect Zbigniew Brzezinski’s point of view on the geopolitical processes in the world. However, despite some crucial works on geopolitics, his most famous book is “the Grand Chessboard,” published in 1997.

In his most significant work, “The Grand Chessboard,” Brzezinski shares his geopolitical thoughts on the future of the world’s political system and covers the long‐term geopolitical interests of the mightiest state of the world. This work could be accepted as one of the most significant works on geopolitics. The main message of the work is the need to strengthen the United States' geopolitical dominance in Eurasia.57

According to Brzezinski, Eurasia is a kind of chessboard where the political actorscompete to achieve command of the world. Under the region of the interests, he means thespace, which extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok and includes Central (Russia), West(Europe), South (the Middle East and Central Asia), East (Southeast Asia)58 (see Map 2).The political actor that once achieved dominance over this region will dominate the otherpartsoftheworld.

Therefore, Eurasia has enormous meaning in foreign policy, and the USA’s global primacy is directly dependent on its domination in this continent:59

“For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia. For half a millennium, world affairs were dominated by Eurasian powers and peoples who fought for regional domination and reached out for global power. Now a non‐Eurasian power is preeminent in Eurasia—and America’s global primacy is directly dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained.”

Map 2: Brzezinski’s map of the Eurasian Chessboard60

He underlines that, for the first time in history, the world’s mightiest world power is not a state from the continent (Eurasia) but the USA. Brzezinski’s thought could be interpreted to mean that the USA has an obligation to be the dominant power of the world and should not allow the emergence of a rival power, which could challenge its unipolar world dominance in the world political arena.61

A significant part of his work is dedicated to Russia as the SU’s successor after its fall. According to him, the collapse of its main rival, the SU, made the USA the only dominant power globally.62Mackinder’s statement on the importance of Eurasia:63

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;

Who rules the Heartland commands the World‐Island;

Who rules the World‐Island commands the world”

is a fundamental principle of Brzezinski’s thought on the Eurasian continent’s importance for world domination by the United States (US). He argues that some former states of the SU have particular significance in the US' Eurasian policy. Brzezinski underlines the vital importance of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine in the geopolitical confrontation between the West (USA) and Russia:64

“An independent Azerbaijan can serve as a corridor for Western access to the energy‐rich Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. Conversely, a subdued Azerbaijan would mean that Central Asia could be sealed off from the outside world and thus rendered politically vulnerable to Russian pressures for reintegration.”65

“Most important, however, is Ukraine. As the EU and NATO expand, Ukraine will eventually be in the position to choose whether it wishes to be part of either organization. It is likely that to reinforce its separate status, Ukraine will wish to join both, once they border upon it, and once its internal transformation begins to qualify it for membership.”66

1.2.10  Political economy

Political economy is used as a theoretical tool to analyze the content of the chapter, which deals with the Caspian region’s energy resources and the history of their production and meaning for the world energy market, including some topics such as oil and natural gas production of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, essential stages in the development of Azerbaijani oil industry, Kazakhstan’s oil reserves, and prospective oil fields, Turkmenistan’s potential natural gas export routes, etc.

Political economy was studied more than four centuries ago. However, only theappearanceofcapitalismledittobestudiedasaseparatesubject.Theestablishmentofthepolitical economy as a theoretical concept is a 19th‐century phenomenon.67 The termpoliticaleconomy istranslatedfromGreek-"politicos” asastate,public,oikonomia‐household management, and nomos‐law, custom. There are some definitions of politicaleconomy,68but the theoryof political economycanbeshortlydefined as thefollowing:

The political economy is a theoretical concept focused on studying society’s publichuman relations in the process of production,distribution, and consumption of vitalbenefits.

Therefore, the political economy deals with public relations, which are created in the process of production:69

Production;

Distribution;

Exchange;

Consumption of material benefits.

The founders of political economy are William Petty, Adam Smith, and David Ricardo. However, Thomas Robert Malthus and Claude‐Frédéric Bastiat have played an enormous role in the subject’s theoretical definition. The political economy’s central issue focuses on relations between people, participated groups, and social production companies. Alongside studying the means of social production, political economy deals with finding out the most useable strategies to achieve economic development and wealth.70

Thanks to the significant contributions of Adam Smith,71 David Ricardo,72 Thomas Robert Malthus,73 and Claude‐Frédéric Bastiat,74 the systems of concepts and categories of political economy were formed. According to them, society is based on industrial production. However, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels revolutionized the political economy. They considered economic phenomena like goods, money, and capital as a measure of relations between people.75

AntoinedeMontchrestien, a French economist and dramatist, used the term “political economy” for the first time in his treatise on political economy-"Traite d'economie politique” (“The Treatise on Political Economy"). The paper was published in 1615 and became Antoine de Montchrestien’s first and last work on the economy.

Adam Smith is one of the founders of the political economy, and his famous book is: “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,” better known as “The Wealth of Nations.” It is one of the two major works on political economy and Karl Marx’s “Capital,” published in 1867.

Even though different groups of political economists define some similarities, there are many flows of political economy. Marxist political economy is the largest politico‐economic school among them.

1.2.11  Institutionalism

Theformationoftheinstitutionalapproachininternationalrelationsbeganattheendof the 19th and 20th centuries.76Scholars such as Thorstein Veblen,77and Wesley ClairMitchell78are “pioneerscholars” ofinstitutionalismandplayedacrucialroleindevelopingandpopularizinginstitutionalismasatheoreticalconcept.Institutionalismwaslaterrenamed “classical intuitionalism.”

As a new perception of international relations, institutionalism was initially formed as an alternative to the economy’s neoclassical concept. Institutionalism is a concept in international relations, which deals with the economic perception of analyzing institutes. As a theoretical concept, institutionalism is based on the micro‐economical theoretical concept.

Thecoreconceptofinstitutionalismwasinitiallyestablishedandusedbyeconomists.However, institutionalism also started to be used by politicians very actively in the 20thcentury. Douglass North, the most famous scholar of institutionalism, was an economistand won the Nobel Prize. North has played a crucial role in understanding some criticalpoints like understanding the core principles of institutional approach in internationalrelations,thesignificantconnectionbetweenpoliticalandeconomicprocesses.79Moreover,he emphasizes the vital role of individualism in the development of institutionalism.However, he did not think that forcing the development of institutionalism in developingcountries would bringdesirableresults.80

Another prominent face of institutionalism is Stephen Krasner,81who coined a conceptof institutionalism for international relations regimes.82 Even though some scholars acceptStephenD.Krasnerasarealistscholaroftheinternationalpoliticaleconomy,institutionalismis essential. Therefore, thanks to him, the scientific community can better understand theinterconnectionbetweeninternationalregimesandsovereigntyandthecorecontrastsbetweencontrol and authority in politics. Due to his political approach, Stephen D. Krasner is oftendefined as a constructivist school member. He considers some points like the significance ofideas and identities in international relations and politics.83

1.2.12  Theoretical characteristics of institutionalism

As a concept, institutionalism explains political or economic cooperation between states or different actors. Additionally, the theory incorporates crucial issues like stability and security. The main idea of institutionalism is that potential cooperation between actors of international relations is possible and might help cooperated sides (states).84

Some essential principles are inherent to institutionalism:85

States are accepted as the leading representatives of the international political system;

Economic revenue is the most crucial goal of all actors;

Through cooperation, states intend to increase their economic gain;

Their self‐absorbed nature characterizes the actors of the global system;

International relations are based on self‐absorption.

In contrast to adherents of political realism, institutionalists argue that even though the international political system is anarchic, it is symbolized by interdependence between actors at the same time. Moreover, another essential characteristic of institutionalism is the fact that all states accept the extant “rules of the game” even though the short‐term effects of these “game rules” harm the states. Therefore, the actors accept these rules because they are sure that other actors will agree with these international relations' extant rules.86

The representatives of the liberal school generally have a positive attitude towardsintuitionalism.87Liberal scholars believe that the existence of institutes is a crucial factorin terms of achieving cooperation between states,88and having joint interests lead tocollaboration between actors.89So, the states are obsessed with maximizing their gains.Simultaneously, they do not care seriously about the lower benefits of other actors takingpart in cooperation.90

1.2.13  Comparison of realism and institutionalism

There are many systematic similarities and agreements between institutionalistandrealisticconceptualapproaches.Accordingtoboththeories,themainactorsofinternational relations are states. The primary goal of states consists in maximizing theirinterestsintheanarchicglobalsystem.91Thus,asbothconceptsacceptthattheinternationalsystem is anarchic, for this reason, the actors are interested only in their existence andsecurity.

Moreover,representativesofbothschoolsarguethatanarchyisthedefining feature of international relations. So, the global system is characterized by the absence ofcentral power. For this reason, there is no significant power that can bring order to theanarchicinternationalsystem.92Sincetheinternationalsystemisanarchic,andtherearenoexistingmoralnorms,allactorstrytoexpandtheirpoliticalandeconomicpowertosurviveinthis lawless world.

However,thetwoapproachesaredifferent.Internationalcooperation,forexample,isseendifferentlybythetwotheories.The