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Apply the tried-and-tested principles of Six Sigma to the fight against climate change In this much needed book, Dr Ron Basu delivers an insightful exploration as well as sage advice on how to apply the principles of Lean Six Sigma to today's climate crisis. Green Six Sigma: A Lean Approach to Sustainable Climate Change Initiatives is an adaption of Lean Six Sigma for climate change initiatives. How can we use Green Six Sigma urgently and effectively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the harmful effects of global warming? This practical and workable book covers topics that are highly relevant to the times we live in: * Climate change challenges and initiatives to mitigate them * Examination of the Green Six Sigma approach, its tools and techniques as well as modifications to incorporate both the digital revolution and sustainability * Applications of the Green Six Sigma approach to a variety of areas relevant to climate change and in all economic sectors including energy, transport, manufacturing, services and agriculture * Green Six Sigma in retrofitting houses and climate adaptation * Guides to the implementation of sustainable climate change initiatives This book is an eye-opening resource, perfect for anyone responsible for sustainability or climate change initiatives at their organisations, NGOs or regulatory agencies. It is also a must-read for academics, managers, participants and practitioners of Six Sigma and Operational Excellence.
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Preface
Background
About This Book
Who Should Use This Book?
Acknowledgements
About the Author
Chapter 1: Climate Change Challenges
1.1. Introduction
1.2. The Earth's Temperature Is Rising
1.3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Country
1.4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector
1.5. Summary
Chapter 2: International and National Climate Change Initiatives
2.1. Introduction
2.2. International Climate Change Initiatives
2.3. National Climate Change Initiatives
2.4. Summary
Chapter 3: The Evolution of Six Sigma, Lean Six Sigma and Green Six Sigma
3.1. Introduction
3.2. First Wave: As Is to TQM
3.3. Second Wave: TQM to Lean Six Sigma
3.4. Third Wave: Lean Six Sigma to FIT SIGMA and Green Six Sigma
3.5. More About Six Sigma
3.6. What Is Six Sigma?
3.7. The Structured Approach of Six Sigma
3.8. Certification of Black Belts and Master Black Belts
3.9. What Is Lean Six Sigma?
3.10. More on Lean Six Sigma
3.11. Why FIT SIGMA?
3.12. What Is Green Six Sigma?
3.13. Summary
Chapter 4: More of Green Six Sigma
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Fitness for the Purpose
4.3. Sigma (Σ) for Improvement and Integration
4.4. Fitness for Sustainability
4.5. Summary
Notes
Chapter 5: Green Six Sigma Tools
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Tools for Define
5.3. Tools for Measure
5.4. Tools for Analysis
5.5. Tools for Improvement
5.6. Tools for CONTROL
5.7. Tools for Sustain
5.8. Summary
Notes
Chapter 6: The Digital Revolution and Climate Change
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Information Technology and Systems
6.3. E-business
6.4. Big Data and Artificial Intelligence
6.5. Digital Tools for Green Six Sigma
6.6. Digital Technology Applications in Climate Change
6.7. Summary
Chapter 7: Green Six Sigma and Clean Energy
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Guiding Factors of Clean Energy
7.3. How Clean Energy Solutions Can Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
7.4. How Six Sigma Is Helping Clean Energy Initiatives
7.5. How Green Six Sigma Can Help Clean Energy Initiatives Further
7.6. Summary
Chapter 8: Green Six Sigma and Green Supply Chain
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Green Thinking and Climate Change Initiative
8.3. Why Green Six Sigma is Relevant to Green Supply Chain
8.4. Green Initiatives by Manufacturers and Suppliers
8.5. Green Initiatives by Retailers
8.6. Green Initiatives by Consumers
8.7. Green Initiatives by Farmers
8.8. How Green Six Sigma Can Help the Green Supply Chain
8.9. Summary
Chapter 9: Green Six Sigma and Green Transport
9.1. Introduction
9.2. Guiding Factors of Clean Transports
9.3. How Clean Transport Solutions Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
9.4. How Six Sigma Is Helping Green Transports Initiatives
9.5. How Green Six Sigma Can Help Green Transport Initiatives Further
9.6. Summary
Chapter 10: Green Six Sigma and Retrofitting Buildings
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Guiding Factors of Retrofitting Buildings
10.3. How Retrofitting Buildings Provides Solutions for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
10.4. How Six Sigma Is Helping Retrofitting Buildings Initiatives
10.5. How Green Six Sigma Can Help Retrofitting Houses Initiatives Further
10.6. Summary
Chapter 11: Green Six Sigma and Climate Adaptation
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Climate Adaptation in the Global Community
11.3. Climate Adaptation in Clean Energy
11.4. Climate Adaptation in Green Supply Chains
11.5. Climate Adaptation in Green Transports
11.6. Climate Adaptation in Retrofitting Houses
11.7. Climate Adaptation and Infrastructure Projects
11.8. Climate Adaptation and Innovation
11.9. Summary
Chapter 12: Implementation: Making It Happen
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Implementation of Climate Change Initiatives
12.3. The Implementation of Green Six Sigma
12.4. Implementation for New Starters
12.5. Green Six Sigma for ‘Stalled’ Six Sigma
12.6. Green Six Sigma for Small and Medium Enterprises
12.7. Green Six Sigma for Successful Organisations
12.8. External Consultants
12.9. Summary
Appendix 1: Carbon Footprint Factsheet
Carbon Footprint
Sources of Emissions
Appendix 2: Yield Conversion Table
References
Glossary
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1 Greenhouse gases
Table 1.2 Top 20 countries emitting CO
2
in 2020
Table 1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 Results of tossing 10 coins 100 times
Table 3.2 Sample of Black Belt training
Table 3.3 DMAIC and SCORE
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 The Six Sigma tools
Table 4.2 Outline of a deployment plan
Table 4.3 Self-assessment options
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Quantitative data of cola cans
Table 5.2 Operational efficiency
Table 5.3 Data points of a car pool
Table 5.4 Individual data in each class
Table 5.5 Major defects identified during manufacture of ICBs
Table 5.6 Construction of variable Control Charts
Table 5.7 Framework of a SWOT Analysis
Table 5.8 PESTLE Analysis
Table 5.9 Data of a toilet soap packing line
Table 5.10 List of project activities for production of a technical book
Table 5.11 Actual performance of the supplier and the expectation of the cus...
Table 5.12 An example of EFQM self-assessment scores
Table 5.13 CO
2
emissions: performance summary
Table 5.14 CO
2
emissions: car travel
Table 5.15 CO
2
emissions: wastes
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 Green Six Sigma by economic sector
Table 7.2 How much power do we need?
Table 7.3 Fuel share of primary energy in 2019
Table 7.4 Power density of energy sources
Table 7.5 Share of Clean Energy in 2019
Table 7.6 Hydropower
Table 7.7 Wind power
Table 7.8 Solar power
Table 7.9 Ranking in the nuclear power capacity of the top five countries
Chapter 8
Table 8.1 Toyota's 5R for Green Thinking
Chapter 9
Table 9.1 Emissions from transports
Table 9.2 Electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe
Table 9.3 Rail electrification in larger European countries
Chapter 10
Table 10.1 Air conditioning in households in the top five countries
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 Climate adaption for house design
Table 11.2 Improved technologies and materials for R&D
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Categories of savings
Table 12.4 Green Six Sigma Culture
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 The rise of CO
2
emissions since 1840
Figure 1.2 The rise of global temperatures since 1840
Figure 1.3 The rise of global temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions
Figure 1.4 The CO
2
emission rates for countries and regions
Figure 1.5 The CO
2
emission rates and CO
2
ppm
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Road map to operational excellence© Ron Basu
Figure 3.2 A histogram of tossing 10 coins
Figure 3.3 Normal distribution curve
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Main barriers to quality movement
Figure 4.2 FIT Σ fundamentals
Figure 4.3 Fitness for the purpose
Figure 4.4 FIT Σ process logic
Figure 4.5 Project organisation: a two-way communication process
Figure 4.6 A model showing a process towards a longer lasing outcome in proj...
Figure 4.7 Kaplan and Norton's Balanced Scorecard
Figure 4.8 The stages of performance management
Figure 4.9 Senior management review process (S&OP)
Figure 4.10 Balanced Scorecard hierarchy
Figure 4.11 EFQM model
Figure 4.12 Total solutions: a holistic approach
Figure 4.13 Manufacturing correctness profile
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Value stream for cola cans
Figure 5.2 SIPOC process diagram
Figure 5.3 A Flow Diagram
Figure 5.4 A CTQ tree
Figure 5.5 Six Sigma Project Charter
Figure 5.6 Example of a Run Chart
Figure 5.7 Example of a histogram
Figure 5.8 Cause and effect diagram
Figure 5.9 Pareto Chart
Figure 5.10 ABC Analysis
Figure 5.11 Control Chart
Figure 5.12 Regression Analysis
Figure 5.13 Force Field Diagram
Figure 5.14 Interrelationship Diagram
Figure 5.15 SMED: setup time reduction
Figure 5.16 Equipment time analysis
Figure 5.17 Soap production line
Figure 5.18 A Gantt Chart
Figure 5.19 Activity Network Diagram
Figure 5.20 Radar Chart
Figure 5.21 PDCA Cycle
Figure 5.22 Material Flow Analysis diagram
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Information technology strategy
Figure 6.2 Application software modules
Figure 6.3 Software development strategy
Figure 6.4 E-business building blocks
Figure 6.5 A typical flow of Big Data Analytics
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 Supply chain management
Figure 8.2 Green Thinking concept
Figure 8.3 Total Supply Chain Emission Chart
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Electric combi boiler solution
Figure 10.2 Air source heat pump: a schematic diagram
Figure 10.3 Ground source heat pump: a schematic diagram
Figure 10.4 Domestic solar energy: a schematic diagram
Figure 10.5 Circular economy for home appliances
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Framework of a Green Six Sigma implementation
© Ron Basu
Figure 12.2 Green Six Sigma programme organisation
© Ron Basu
Figure 12.3 Project planned and completed
©
Ron Basu
Figure 12.4 Value of planned and completed projects© Ron Basu
Figure 12.5 A typical time plan for a Green Six Sigma programme
Figure 12.6 Green Six Sigma structure for SMEs© Ron Basu
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Preface
Acknowledgements
About the Author
Begin Reading
Appendix 1 Carbon Footprint Factsheet
Appendix 2 Yield Conversion Table
References
Glossary
Index
End User License Agreement
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Green Six Sigma
A Lean Approach to Sustainable Climate Change Initiatives
Ron Basu
This edition first published 2021Copyright © 2022 by Ron Basu.
Registered officeJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom
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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher.
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Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is Available:
ISBN 978-1-119-86123-2 (hardback)ISBN 978-1-119-86125-6 (ePub)ISBN 978-1-119-86124-9 (ePDF)
Cover Design: WileyCover Images: © Mendelex/Shutterstock; © NPeter/Shutterstock; Courtesy of Ron Basu
To Catherine, Theresa, Harriet and Georgina
Preface
Background
While sailing on a Princess Cruise a few years back I had the privilege to listen to a lecture by Mary Robinson, previously President of Ireland and also UN High Commissioner of Human Rights. She spoke for half an hour on how to avoid climate change disaster. The idea of writing a book to address these issues was conceived then in my mind. Before Mrs Robinson's lecture I was also influenced by the ‘Blue Planet II’ documentary on plastics pollution by David Attenborough and the movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ by Al Gore. Then, on the eve of COP26 in Glasgow there were climate-related disasters in Western Europe, North America, China and South Asia. I decided that it was now the time to write a book on climate change so that I can look into the eyes of my grandchildren and say that I have tried to do my bit.
I am not an environmental scientist but have some expertise in Six Sigma applications in achieving operations excellence in organisations. My research revealed that there were many publications on climate change and also on Six Sigma and its hybrids (e.g. Lean Six Sigma) but there was no bridge between the two. Thus, the concept of Green Six Sigma, which is basically the adaptation of Lean Six Sigma for climate change initiatives, was developed.
About This Book
There are 12 chapters in this book. Three chapters are devoted to the concept of Green Six Sigma with its tools and techniques. The other nine chapters deal with the causes of climate change and how we can mitigate and adapt to its consequences, assisted by Green Six Sigma. Green Six Sigma is not a silver bullet. It is a catalyst to accelerate climate change initiatives leading to sustainable processes and environmental standards.
Who Should Use This Book?
This book is aimed at a broad cross-section of readership including:
Leaders of the global community with the responsibility for climate change initiatives will find this book informative to sponsor the training and applications of Green Six Sigma in the current and future projects of climate change.
Functional managers, participants and practitioners in Six Sigma and Operational Excellence will find that this book will provide them with a comprehensive insight into the tools and techniques of sustainable improvement in a single package for climate change initiatives.
Senior executives, both in the manufacturing and service industries, will find that this book gives them a better understanding of basic tools and techniques and helps them to support climate change initiatives and sustain a strong competitive position.
Professional management and training consultants will find the comprehensive approach of tools and techniques as an essential handbook for Six Sigma related climate change assignments and seminars.
Universities, management schools, academies and research associations will find this book valuable to fill the visible gap in the basics of operational excellence especially focused on climate change.
The readership will be global and particularly cover North America, the UK, Continental Europe, Australia and the Asia Pacific countries.
I have made an effort to furnish you with both simple and more complex concepts that are nonetheless easy to understand. At the end of each chapter some simple tips named ‘Green Tips’ are included. Mahatma Gandhi once said, ‘Be the change you want to be in the world’. I hope this book will in some way help you to bring about that change in climate change that we urgently need.
Ron Basu
Gerrards Cross, England
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to the many contributors for the case examples and research papers on climate change included in the book with special mentions to Dr Michael Cross and Dr Avik Basu.
Every effort has been made to credit the authors, publishers and websites for materials used in this book. I apologise if inadvertently any sources remain unacknowledged and if known I shall be pleased to credit them in the next edition.
My sincere thanks go to the staff of my publisher John Wiley & Sons Ltd, especially to Gemma Valler and Purvi Patel for getting this project off the ground.
Finally, the project could not have been completed without the encouragement and help of my family, especially my wife Moira, sister-in-law Reena, son Robi and daughter Bonnie. Bonnie's contributions to edit draft chapters have been invaluable.
Ron Basu
About the Author
Ron Basu is director of RB Consultants and a visiting fellow at Henley Business School, England. He is also a visiting professor at SKEMA Business School, France. He specialises in operational excellence and supply chain management and has research interests in performance management and project management.
Previously he held senior management roles in blue-chip companies like GSK, GlaxoWellcome and Unilever and led global initiatives and projects in Six Sigma, ERP/MRPII, Supply Chain Re-engineering and Total Productive Maintenance. Prior to this he worked as management consultant with A.T. Kearney.
He is the co-author of Total Manufacturing Solutions, Quality Beyond Six Sigma, Total Operations Solutions and Total Supply Chain Management and the author of books with titles Measuring e-Business Performance, Implementing Quality, Implementing Six Sigma and Lean, FIT SIGMA, Managing Project Supply Chains, Managing Quality in Projects, Managing Global Supply Chains and Managing Projects in Research and Development. He has authored a number of peer reviewed papers in the operational excellence and project management fields.
After graduating in manufacturing engineering from UMIST, Manchester, Ron obtained an MSc in Operational Research from Strathclyde University, Glasgow. He has also completed a PhD at Reading University. He is a fellow of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, the Institute of Business Consultancy and the Chartered Quality Institute. He is also the winner of the APM Project Management Award.
Chapter 1Climate Change Challenges
‘What humans do over the next 50 years will determine the fate of all life on the planet.’
– David Attenborough
1.1. Introduction
‘Climate change’ as a scientific term may well sound quite tame and vernacular, and possibly does not convey a sufficient sense of urgency. It becomes confusing when scientists additionally talk about ice ages and other natural changes to the climate that have occurred throughout the history of our planet. The term ‘global warming’ has also been used as another phrase for the same thing, but, by contrast, this expression clearly imparts an unambiguous message concerning the imminent danger posed to humans and other living objects on earth.
What is beyond dispute is that the earth's temperature is rising, and even growth of two degrees centigrade would melt the ice sheets of the Polar Regions, resulting in a sea level increase of many metres. I have to admit that in the context of discussions regarding our future well-being I do prefer the term ‘global warming’. However, as ‘climate change’ is the official term being used by the United Nations (e.g. UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change and IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change), I shall also use this phrase primarily to express the impact of global warming.
The world is producing 51 Gigatons or 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases every year. These greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), water vapour (H2O) and ozone (O3), as shown in Table 1.1.
Carbon dioxide has been found to be the most important greenhouse gas related to global warming. It constitutes 82% of all greenhouse gases and stays in the atmosphere for a long time. Recent studies have shown that 75% of carbon will not disappear for a time calculated to be between centuries to thousands of years while the other 25% will stay with us forever. Methane causes many times more warming, molecule for molecule, than carbon dioxide when it reaches the atmosphere, but methane does not stay in the atmosphere as long as carbon dioxide. In addition, man-made (anthropogenic) activities are creating a serious global warming crisis that could last far longer than we ever thought possible – unless we act immediately.
Let us consider the basic principle involved here. A greenhouse is made of glass to allow sunlight to pass through and warm the air inside. The heat is trapped by the glass and the interior becomes warmer and warmer. We experience this so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ when our cars are parked in the sun and their interiors can become much hotter than the external temperature. Greenhouse gases work in a similar fashion but on a massive scale to increase the earth's temperature; hence this familiar term. Carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for a long time and trap the heat that would otherwise escape to the atmosphere, thus causing the earth's temperature to climb.
Table 1.1 Greenhouse gases
SOURCE: US EPA (2019).
Greenhouse Gases
Percentages
Carbon dioxide
82
Methane
10
Nitrous oxide
6
Others
2
Let us now examine how much the earth's temperature is rising and why this is causing serious concern.
As carbon dioxide commands the lion's share of greenhouse gases, the emission of all gases is expressed as a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e).
1.2. The Earth's Temperature Is Rising
Greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, have increased gradually since 1840 and dramatically since 1950, as shown in Figure 1.1.
Sunlight passes through the thick layer of greenhouse gases without getting absorbed to reach the earth's surface and therefore warms up the planet. The earth radiates some of the heat energy back towards space and this hits the greenhouse gas molecules. This in turn makes the molecules vibrate faster, thus heating up the atmosphere. Only molecules of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have the right structure to absorb radiation and thus to heat up the earth's temperature. Therefore, it is not surprising that the average global temperature since 1840 has also risen almost at the same rate as the increase of carbon dioxide (see Figure 1.2).
Figure 1.1 The rise of CO2 emissions since 1840
SOURCE: Global Carbon Project Report (2019).
Figure 1.2 The rise of global temperatures since 1840
SOURCE: Global Carbon Project Report (2019).
The significant correlation between global temperatures and CO2 emissions is clearly visible in Figure 1.3.
Scientists acknowledge (IPCC, 2021) that there is uncertainty about how much or how quickly the temperature will increase and exactly what effect these higher figures will have. The jury is out regarding the accuracy of the numbers, but there is no doubt that the earth is warming and that this is occurring as a direct result of human activities.
Scientists are debating the direct impact of global warming. However, IPCC reports are clear that global warming is the major factor involved in causing the harmful effects of climate change. There is growing evidence that global warming is making storms wetter and the occurrence of severe cyclones more frequent. A hotter climate also means that there will be more frequent wildfires. An alarming effect of global warming is that sea levels will rise mainly because the polar icebergs are melting. Rising sea levels will be even worse for the poorer people in the world such as those living in Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands.
Figure 1.3 The rise of global temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions
SOURCE: Global Carbon Project Report (2019).
The potential impacts on plants and animals also make for very bleak reading. The prediction in IPCC reports is that a rise of two degrees centigrade could destroy the geographic range of animals by 8%, plants by 16% and insects by 18%. There were 7,300 major disasters in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019, resulting in 1.2 million deaths and wiping out $3 trillion (3.7%) from the global economy (IPCC, 2021). The scientific evidence would lead us to believe that, although the impact is gradual, at some point it will become catastrophic and irreversible. Even if the ‘best case’ scenario of that point is 50 years away, the inevitable conclusion from the data is that we must act now.
Let us start by exploring the root causes of global warming in more detail.
1.3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Country
The rate of greenhouse gas emissions from a country, especially carbon dioxide, depends upon many considerations. The two main factors are the generation and consumption of electricity and the population of the country. David Mackay of Cambridge University has produced a graph (Gates, 2021, page 6) which shows that the income per person of a country is proportional to the energy used per head. It was evident from the graph that richer countries (for example, the USA, Canada, Qatar) consume many times more energy per person than the poorer countries (such as Niger, Ethiopia, Haiti). Greater energy consumption means more carbon dioxide emissions. However, it is not the richer nations alone who are causing the higher emission rates of carbon dioxide. Standards of living are going up in emerging economies with a rising demand for energy, cars, buildings and refrigerators. In addition, the global population is also rising.
Figure 1.4 shows the emission rate over the last two decades for populous countries and regions. It is evident that emissions from advanced economies like the USA and European Union have stayed fairly flat, but if we look at emerging economies, especially China, they are growing rapidly. Of course, undoubtedly it is good news that people are improving their standards of living thanks to globalisation, but the unfortunate consequence is that this is bad news for the planet we all live on. As standards of living are accelerating rapidly in developing countries like China, India, Brazil and Nigeria, both energy consumption and carbon emissions are also increasing at a commensurate rate. It is important to note that in the future there will be an even faster growth in carbon dioxide emissions from these emerging economies.
Figure 1.4 The CO2 emission rates for countries and regions
SOURCE: Gates (2021, page 41).
Each country, depending on its power generation process, power consumption and population, emits differing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Table 1.2 shows data that estimates carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (the main component of greenhouse gases) from the combustion of coal, natural gas, oil and other fuels, including industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. It shows the ranking of the top 20 countries as the highest emitters of carbon dioxide in 2020.
Table 1.2 Top 20 countries emitting CO2 in 2020
SOURCE: Earth Systems Science Data (2020).
Rank
Countries
CO
2
emissions (Giga tonnes)
Percentage (%)
1
China
10.06
28
2
USA
5.41
15
3
India
2.65
7
4
Russian Federation
1.71
5
5
Japan
1.16
3
6
Germany
0.75
2
7
Iran
0.72
2
8
South Korea
0.65
2
9
Saudi Arabia
0.62
2
10
Indonesia
0.61
2
11
Canada
0.56
2
12
Mexico
0.47
1
13
South Africa
0.46
1
14
Brazil
0.45
1
15
Turkey
0.42
1
16
Australia
0.42
1
17
United Kingdom
0.37
1
18
Poland
0.34
1
19
France
0.33
1
20
Italy
0.33
1
The top 20 carbon dioxide emitting countries account for 79% of the total CO2 emissions of the world and the top 5 countries (China, USA, India, Russia and Japan) are responsible for 58% of the total emissions.
A very useful way to show the impact of CO2 in the atmosphere is by ppm, or parts per million. This number tells us how many parts of carbon dioxide there are in one million parts of air. Figure 1.5 shows the rapid rise of CO2 ppm levels along with the rise in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere over the last 100 years.
Carbon dioxide concentrations are rising mostly because of the fossil fuels that people are burning for energy. Fossil fuels like coal and oil contain carbon that plants pulled out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis over the span of many millions of years; however, now we are returning that carbon to the atmosphere within a timespan of just a few hundred years. The current level of ppm in 2020 is 410, but this figure is growing. The danger level of CO2 could occur when we are exposed to levels above 5,000 ppm for a number of hours. A further critical point is that even higher levels of CO2 can cause asphyxiation as carbon dioxide replaces oxygen in the blood. We do know that exposure to concentrations of around 40,000 PPM is immediately dangerous to life and health.
Figure 1.5 The CO2 emission rates and CO2 ppm
1.4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector
It is disturbing to learn that greenhouse gas emissions are anthropogenic, which means that these environmental changes are caused mainly by human behaviour, that is everything that humans do to live and prosper in a society. The share of emissions depends on the various sectors of the economy contributing to our lifestyle, such as how we make things, how we grow our foods, how we are plugging into electricity and how we are getting around.
We can see that there are some paradoxes involved. For example, while we would all agree that we need both cement and steel to build our infrastructures, however making steel and cement alone accounts for approximately 10% of all emissions. There are some variations in the proportion of data for greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector depending on the sources and their chosen categories. I have chosen the categories and data from IPCC (2014a) as shown in Table 1.3.
From this table, we can note that electricity and energy account for just over a third of all greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, the burning of coal, natural gas and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Table 1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector
SOURCE: IPCC (2014a).
Economic Sector
Percentages
Electricity and other energy
35
Agriculture and land
24
Industry
21
Transports
14
Buildings
6
Greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture and land sector come mostly from agriculture (the cultivation of crops and livestock) and the practice of deforestation. The gas emissions from cattle and sheep are also a significant source in this sector.
Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on site at facilities for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption and emissions from waste management activities.
If we consider the transportation sector, greenhouse gas emissions primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector arise from onsite energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. Emissions from the electricity and other sectors are covered in Chapter 7.
1.5. Summary
From the evidence-based analysis in this chapter some key points can be summarised:
The global warming debate is over. There is incontrovertible evidence now that over the last 50 years our planet is warming between 0.5 degrees centigrade and 1.5 degrees centigrade. If no action is taken, the temperature will continue to rise and consequently sea levels will increase, with impacts on our weather cycle, including more frequent cyclones, wildfires and incidences of flooding.
The world is producing 51 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases every year; the biggest contributor is carbon dioxide (82%) generated mainly from the combustion of coal, natural gas, oil and other fuels.
The world's most advanced economies (e.g. USA, Japan, EU, UK and Canada) have been producing greenhouse gases. However, the growth in emissions will come from the emerging and populous economies (e.g. China, India, Brazil, Russia, Nigeria and Indonesia).
The largest economic sector of CO
2
emissions is the generations and consumption of energy (35%). Fossil fuels (e.g. coal, gas and oil) are the major sources of power plants and energy consumption in industries and houses.
To avoid the climate disaster we must act now. We need to invest in future research for breakthrough solutions, but we have to deploy the tools we already have, such as solar and wind.
If we have a breakthrough process solution now we must apply it immediately. We should also aim for a sustainable outcome. The United Nations (United Nations Foundation, 2020) projected 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to be achieved by 2030, of which climate change is the 13th goal. Sustainability focuses on meeting the requirements of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
Green Six Sigma (a hybrid of Six Sigma) is designed to provide both breakthrough process solutions and sustainable outcomes.
Green Tips
Remember three numbers: 51 billion, zero and 2050: 51 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases are added to the atmosphere every year and our target is net-zero emission by 2050.
Carbon dioxide is the biggest contributor (82%) of greenhouse gases.
We must act now with urgency to avoid a climate disaster.
Chapter 2International and National Climate Change Initiatives
‘We must now agree on a binding review mechanism under international law, so that this century can be called the century of decarbonisation’
– Angela Merkel
2.1. Introduction
It was not until 1972 that environmental issues received serious attention from any national or international organisations. In June 1972 the first Earth Summit held in Stockholm adopted a declaration that set out principles for the preservation and enhancement of the human environment. The conference also proposed the establishment of stations to monitor long-term trends in atmospheric properties; however, at this stage, climate change was not the central preoccupation. Over the next two decades concerns for the global climate slowly gained traction and garnered international interest. From around the late 1980s global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer became increasingly prominent in the sphere of international public debate and a fixture on the political agenda, with the formation of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 1988.
As a sense of urgency gained momentum and demands increased for stronger international action on climate change, the United Nations General Assembly decided to convene the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. This summit was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The most significant event during the conference was the agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was signed by 158 States.
2.2. International Climate Change Initiatives
Against this backdrop, a number of international initiatives on climate change were established including:
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Kyoto Protocol
International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP)
The Paris Climate Agreement
The Conference of Parties (COP)
IPCC
2.2.1. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty addressing climate change signed by 158 states at Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The United Nations established a Secretariat headquartered in Bonn to implement the Rio de Janeiro agreement.
The treaty established three categories of signatory states with differential responsibilities. The categories are: developed countries (Annex 1), developed countries with special financial responsibilities (Annex 2) and developing countries. Annex 1 countries are members of the EU and thirteen Eastern European states in transition to market economies. This group is called upon to adopt national policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Annex 2 countries include all Annex 1 countries except the thirteen East European states. This group is asked to provide financial resources to meet the costs of developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the developing countries of the third category are required to submit progress reports of their individual commitments on climate change and emission targets for greenhouse gases.
The UNFCCC has been criticised for its apparent ineffectiveness in reducing levels of emissions of greenhouse gases since its creation. However, it should take the credit for being the major international forum of climate change and the source of other international climate change initiatives such as the Kyoto Protocol, ICAP, COP and IPCC, which will be discussed below.
2.2.2. The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto in December 1997 by 192 countries. It extends the 1992 UNFCCC objective to reduce greenhouse gas emissions based on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and that CO2 emissions as a result of human activity are causing this. The Kyoto Protocol applies to the six components of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as the main contributors.
The Protocol acknowledges that developed and developing countries have different capabilities in combating climate change and places the obligation more heavily on developed countries. The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and 36 countries fully complied with it. The second commitment period, known as the Doha Amendment, commenced in 2012, under which 37 countries, including EU and Australia, have binding targets. However, there have been stumbling blocks along the way. Japan, New Zealand and Russia have participated in Kyoto but have not committed to the second-round targets. Other developed countries without second-round goals are Canada (which ceremonially withdrew from the Protocol in 2012) and the United States (which has not ratified). Of the 37 countries with binding commitments, 34 have ratified and 147 states have accepted the Doha Amendment in principle.
Following the much-publicised departure of Canada in 2012 and the lack of ratification by many countries including the USA, the Kyoto Protocol is considered to have failed to deliver. This resulted in the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 as a separate instrument under the UNFCCC.
2.2.3. International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP)
The International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) was founded in Lisbon in 2007 by more than fifteen government representatives as an international cooperative forum. From its Secretariat based in Berlin, ICAP coordinates the sharing of best practices and monitors the progress of the ETS (Emission Trading Scheme). ETS is an incentive-based approach for reducing emission pollutants, also known as ‘cap and trade’. A maximum ‘cap’ or limit is set on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by all participating members.
ICAP regularly publishes the status report of emission trading worldwide (ICAP, 2021). The partnership currently counts 32 full members and five observers. The UK launched its own domestic ETS following its departure from the European Union while the Chinese government officially announced the start of the first compliance cycle of its domestic ETS in January 2021, ending in December 2021.
ICAP advocates for a Paris Agreement that supports countries in using market mechanisms on a voluntary basis to help achieve their intended nationally determined contributions.
2.2.4. The Paris Climate Agreement
The Paris Climate Agreement (also known as the Paris Accord) is an international treaty on the climate crisis. Its stated aim is to radically reduce global carbon emissions and restrict the rise in the Earth's temperature to less than 2 degrees centigrade. This treaty was signed by all 189 participating countries in Paris in December 2015 at COP 21.
There are four guiding principles for the Agreement:
To support Parties in transferring part of their mitigation outcomes to other Parties for compliance, leading to greater emissions reductions than can be achieved individually.
To provide for a sound and transparent accounting framework for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes and build trust among Parties.
To encourage the development and use of robust monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) standards and ensure that the environmental integrity of Parties’ mitigation commitments is not undermined.
To build upon the knowledge and institutions developed by countries and the UNFCCC.
The participating countries are also required to report every two years on how much greenhouse gas is being produced within their geographical boundaries. These reports are called ‘greenhouse gas inventories’. Countries must also provide feedback on their efforts regarding climate change adaptation responses.
The treaty is bound by international laws. Although the participating countries are not bound by law to aim towards one universal goal, they are required to establish and review their own climate targets and plans every five years. These objectives must be set on a consistent basis. The plans and targets are known as NDCs or nationally determined contributions. With 189 nations having ratified the landmark accord since 2015, the USA is the only country in the world to have formally withdrawn from it in June 2017. However, the succeeding US administration of President Biden re-joined the Paris Climate Agreement in February 2021.
Notwithstanding the fact that, inevitably, some doubts arose when President Trump began the process of extracting the USA from the Paris Agreement, the treaty has proved to be remarkably resilient. The key axis of the EU and China has remained intact. There are other successes such as the inclusion of 1 degree centigrade as the aspirational target, a powerful movement towards ‘net-zero emissions’ as well as a multiplicity of successful actions on climate by large businesses. However, even with all these positive steps, emissions have continued to rise globally. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reported that releases escalated from 50 billion tonnes in 2015 to 55 billion tonnes in 2019.
Despite the evident challenges, there is once again a sense of optimism around what can be achieved with President Joe Biden re-joining the Paris Agreement on his first day in office, and China's President Xi Jinping committing the world's largest emitter to a zero emissions target by 2060.
2.2.5. The Conference of Parties (COP)
The COP is the decision-making body of the UNFCCC and can produce some very important outcomes. For example, the Paris Climate Agreement was signed at the COP 21 in 2015. All States that are Parties to the Convention are represented and work together to make the relevant decisions that safeguard the successful implementation of the Convention. The COP meets annually and reviews the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties. The COP dates back to March 1995 when the first COP meeting was held in Berlin, Germany, while the most recent, COP 25, took place at Madrid in 2019.
COP 26 was to be held in Glasgow in 2020 but was rescheduled as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and is due to occur in November 2021. It will take place in an atmosphere of anticipation, and expectations are high as President Biden has prioritised climate change, promising to convene a climate summit of the world's major economies within 100 days of taking office. All eyes will be on those countries who have not yet committed to long-term net-zero targets. There will also be an appetite to see progress from those nations who have already dedicated themselves and who have already offered detailed plans for cutting emissions by 2030.
2.2.6. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a highly respected body of the United Nations and was established in 1988. In conjunction with former US Vice-President Al Gore, the IPCC won the Nobel Prize in 2007.
The group works to produce reports on climate change which are commonly held to be the official consensus of scientists, experts and global governments. These documents allow the IPCC to assess, summarise and provide an overview of knowledge, progress, impacts and the future risks of climate change. The reports are drafted and reviewed by the scientific community at various stages, thus guaranteeing objectivity and authenticity.
2.2.7. Other International Initiatives
There are other international bodies involved in climate change initiatives, albeit with lower profiles, including GEF and GCP.
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was set up in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit. GEF supports 184 countries in partnership with some private sector groups and civil society organisations to address global environmental issues. GEF also provides financial support for projects related to climate change, international waters, the ozone layer and environmental pollutions. The organisation has financed or co-financed more than 4,800 projects in 170 countries.
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 as a global research project of Future Earth, a network of the international science community. Based in Canberra, its aim is to decelerate the escalation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The primary focus of GCP research is carbon management and the group regularly publishes Global Carbon Project reports in English, Chinese, Japanese and Russian.
2.3. National Climate Change Initiatives
Both developed and developing countries, as part of UNFCCC and the Paris Climate Agreement, are contributing to climate change initiatives as well as submitting reports on greenhouse gas inventories. In addition, many states are proactively following national climate change strategies. In this section, some of these national and regional initiatives are discussed.
2.3.1. European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was launched in 2005 as the first large greenhouse trading scheme.
All installations must monitor and report their greenhouse gas emissions. A maximum cap is set on the total quantity of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by all participating installations. EU allowances for emissions are then auctioned off and can subsequently be traded. If emissions exceed the amount permitted by allowances, an installation must purchase allowances from others. Conversely, if an installation has performed well and has demonstrated success at reducing its emissions, it can sell its leftover credits. This is known as ‘the cap and trade principle’.
In 2013 the EU ETS covered more than 11,000 installations of the power stations and factories of all 27 EU member countries. Subsequently, the EU ETS was also extended to EU airports.
We will now examine in more detail how some key global economies are performing in terms of climate change, with a focus upon some of the worst ‘sinners’ in this area.
2.3.2. UK Climate Change Initiatives
British climate change initiatives are ambitious. The UK aims not just to meet the tenets of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce all greenhouse emissions by 12.5% from 1990 levels by 2012. In fact, new commitments will set the UK on a path to slash its carbon emissions by 78% by the year 2035. Furthermore, the 2008 Climate Change Act commits the UK government to cut national greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100% of 1990 levels (net zero) by 2050.
Achieving these targets would require more widespread use of electric cars, low-carbon heating and renewable electricity as well as cultural changes to food purchasing habits by a reduction in the consumption of meat and dairy products. Following Brexit, the UK entered its own UK-only ETS, although this is broadly similar to the EU ETS described above and the same ethos applies. Industries and power plants receive permits to emit greenhouse gases and can trade them at the market rate. Increasing renewable energy production, by wind, solar and nuclear power is one fundamental way that will allow the UK to meet its binding net-zero target by 2050.
At the COP 21 meeting held in Paris, Britain joined ‘Mission Innovation’ with a group of twenty countries, pledging to ‘double spending on clean tech R and D’.
2.3.3. USA Climate Change Initiatives
The United States of America is the second highest polluter of greenhouse gases but arguably holds maximum power and influence in global climate change initiatives. A look at the varying policies of US administrations towards green initiatives in this century reveals rather a ‘swing of the pendulum’ effect. It is evident that recent Republican presidents (viz. George W. Bush and Donald Trump) have sought to protect fossil fuel industries while their Democrat counterparts (Barack Obama and Joe Biden) are more proactive supporters of global and national climate change initiatives.
The USA, although a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, has neither ratified nor withdrawn from this agreement. President Clinton in 1993 committed the United States to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. However, in 2001 George W. Bush announced that the United States would not implement the Kyoto Protocol.
Bush's successor adopted a different and more proactive approach to the pressing problem of climate change. In 2009 President Obama announced that the USA would enter a ‘cap and trade’ system to limit global warming. He also established a new office, the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change, and appointed Todd Stern as the Special Envoy for Climate Change. In 2013 President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping formulated a landmark agreement to reduce CO2 and two years later, in 2015, President Obama became a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement. In the same year the United States committed to reducing emissions to 26–28% below 2005 levels by the year 2025, a reflection of the US goal to convert the national economy into one of low-carbon reliance.
However, 2017 saw another reversal of attitudes with a change of administration, when President Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and appointed Scott Pruitt, a climate change denialist, as his director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Since taking office in 2021, the Biden administration has re-joined the Paris Climate Agreement and created a National Climate Task Force. President Biden has also proposed spending on climate change in his infrastructure bill, including $174 billion for electric cars and $35 billion for research and development into climate change initiatives.
2.3.4. China Climate Change Initiatives
China accounts for 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is the world's number one polluter due to an energy infrastructure heavily reliant upon the use of fossil fuels and coal. Furthermore, major industries including the construction and manufacturing sectors contribute heavily to the country's enormous levels of carbon dioxide emissions. China is already experiencing the severe impacts of global warming upon its agriculture, water resources and the environment.
However, as a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, the nation appears to be committed to climate change initiatives. President Xi Jinping announced in 2020 at the UN General Assembly that his country would hit peak carbon emissions before 2030, aiming
