Snake Oil E-Book

Richard Heinberg

• Herausgeber: Clairview Books
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2014

Beschreibung

The rapid spread of 'fracking' (hydraulic fracturing) has temporarily boosted natural gas and oil production, particularly in the USA, but it has also sparked a massive environmental backlash in local communities. The fossil fuel industry is promoting fracking as the biggest energy development of the century, with seductive promises of energy independence and benefits to local economies. Snake Oil casts a critical eye on the oil-industry hype that has hijacked the discussion over energy security. This is the first book to look at fracking from both economic and environmental perspectives, informed by the most thorough analysis of shale gas and oil drilling data ever undertaken. Is fracking the miracle cure-all to our energy ills, or a costly distraction from the necessary work of reducing our fossil fuel dependence?

Leseprobe

Praise for Snake Oil

Those who think fracked gas is a panacea for our energy future would do well to read this cautionary account—it has an undeniable whiff of reality about it.

— Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org and author ofOil and Honey: The Education of an Unlikely Activist

Many long-time observers of the world energy scene have been wondering whether claims being made for US shale gas and tight oil are “too good to be true.” Here is hard evidence that they are indeed. America will achieve real, long-term energy independence and security only by doing two things: reducing energy demand and developing distributed renewable energy sources.

— Michael Klare, Director of Five College Program in Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, author ofThe Race for What’s Left

Snake Oilexposes the unsustainable economics behind the so-called fracking boom, giving the lie to industry claims that natural gas will bring great economic benefits and long-term energy security to the United States. In clear, hard-hitting language, Heinberg reveals that communities where fracking has taken place are actually being hurt economically. For those who want to know the truth about why natural gas is a gangplank, not a bridge,Snake Oilis a must-read.

— Michael Brune, Executive Director of the Sierra Club and author ofComing Clean

Unconventional production from shales has been hyped mercilessly by the oil and gas industry. Richard Heinberg does an outstanding job of purging the myths and bringing sensibility to a dialogue which, unfortunately, has been driven by a brand of thinking on the part of energy producers that closely mimics the mentality of Wall Street.

— Deborah Rogers, founder of Energy Policy Forum, former Wall Street financial analyst

We are already living with the false promise that fracking would not harm the environment. Now read the facts about the false promise that it will provide an energy-secure future and lots of jobs.Snake Oildebunks all the myths. It is a must-read for our elected leaders.

— Maude Barlow, Board Chair of Food & Water Watch and author ofBlue Covenant

It always sounded too good to be true . . . Richard Heinberg authoritatively explains the fine print beneath the hype—sure enough, fracking is the 21st-century version of snake oil. The real deal is energy efficiency along with solar and wind power. It’s time for a sober and honest debate about our energy future. That’s whySnake Oilis essential reading.

— David W. Orr, Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics at Oberlin College, author ofDown to the Wire

InSnake Oil, Richard Heinberg reveals two key themes everyone should understand: The promise of shale oil and gas abundance is exaggerated and misleading, and the cost of producing the shale oil supply has reached a level that is inconsistent with economic growth.

— Arthur Berman, consulting geologist and Director of Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The shale “revolution” might be over sooner than you think.Snake Oildoes what the mainstream media have failed to do: ask the tough questions—particularly about the economics—and closely examine the real potential of fracking for oil and gas. This book is an important counterpoint to what has been little more than regurgitated industry press releases thus far and is an essential read for investors and policy makers.

— Chris Nelder, energy analyst and author ofProfit from the Peak

When some things are too hard or painful to understand, it takes a heroic effort to even try to get a message across. Richard Heinberg is a beacon of light cutting through the fog of wishful thinking to illuminate the critical issues by which the human project may stand or fall: energy and economy.

— James Howard Kunstler, author ofToo Much MagicandThe Long Emergency

Published in Great Britain in 2014 by Clairview Books, Russet, Sandy Lane, West Hoathly, W. Sussex RH18 5ES

E-mail: [email protected]

www.clairviewbooks.com

© Richard Heinberg 2014

First published in an earlier edition by Post Carbon Institute, Santa Rosa, California, in 2013

All rights reserved. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, electrical, chemical, mechanical, optical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. Inquiries should be addressed to the Publishers

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Print book ISBN 978 1 905570 72 0 Ebook ISBN 978 1 905570 64 5

Cover by Morgan Creative Typeset in the United States of America, with additional setting by DP Photosetting, Neath, UK

Contents

PREFACE TO UK EDITION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

INTRODUCTION:A Front-Row Seat at the Peak Oil Games

1. THIS IS WHAT PEAK OIL LOOKS LIKE

Peak Oil: What the Fuss Is About

Okay, When?

It Gets Worse

Making Sense of History as We Live It

Depletionist Economics

2. TECHNOLOGY TO THE RESCUE

A Brief History of Fracking

How to Frack a Shale Gas (or Tight Oil) Well

The Shale Gas Boom, Play by Play

Tight Oil by the Numbers

The Claims Rush

3. A TREADMILL TO HELL

The Boom That Fizzled

Shale Gas: The Evidence Is In

Bakken Boom, Bakken Bust

Will the Rest of the World Get Fracked?

Why Do Official Agencies So Often Get It Wrong?

The Bottom Line on Fracking’s Potential to Revolutionize Oil and Gas Production

4. FRACKING WARS, FRACKING CASUALTIES

Water

Air

Land

Climate

5. THE ECONOMICS OF FRACKING: WHO BENEFITS?

Communities

The Nation

The Oil and Gas Industry

Wall Street

6. ENERGY REALITY

Other Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Geology versus Technology

Renewable Energy

Energy Scenarios

A Mirage Distracts Us from Hydrocarbon Rehab

NOTES

ABBREVIATIONS

GLOSSARY

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

This book is dedicated to those activists working to create an energy system where people, places, and the future matter.

Acknowledgments

This book relies heavily on the research of many scientists, analysts, and activists. I owe a debt of gratitude first and foremost to my colleague David Hughes, upon whose research much of this book is based, along with Deborah Rogers and Art Berman.

The quick development of such a time-sensitive book was made possible by a community engagement model of publishing. Thanks to the many generous individuals who participated as benefactors and real-time editors. Special thanks to our “Snake Charmers”: Ed Adamthwaite, Ruben Bakker, Diane Blust, Brian Bucktin, Clinton Callahan of nextculture.org, Clare Conry, Leonard Edmondson, David J. Fleming, Greg Fox, Felipe Garcia, Peter Gendel, Christopher Gerwin, John B. Howe, Leo Immonen, Kelly Kellogg, John Kretsinger, Richard Larson, Gary Marshall, Chris May, Stephen Miller, Dan Miner, Charles W. Nuckolls, John Parry, Markus Schellenberg, Dennis Schulinck, Richard Seymour, Patti Michelle Sheaffer, Edgar Shepherd, Gary H. Stroy, Nathan Surendran, Jeffrey Tomasi, Richard Turcotte, David Watters, and Matt Wilson. Thanks also to the over three hundred sponsors who joined our “Merry Band of Editors” and provided critical feedback on early drafts; their names are listed at the back of this book.

Many thanks to our lightning-fast production team: Girl Friday Productions, cover artist Luke Massman-Johnson, map designer John Van Hoesen, and research assistant Chris Takahashi. And words of appreciation are in order for Tod Brilliant, for having the initial idea for a new and unique publication model and making it happen; Daniel Lerch, for shepherding the book through our independent publishing process; and Asher Miller, for his editorial suggestions and overall project coordination.

Finally, sincerethanksas always to PJ and LH for their constant and generous support.

Introduction

A Front-Row Seat at the Peak Oil Games

For the past decade I’ve been a participant in a high-stakes energy policy debate—writing books, giving lectures, and appearing on radio and television to point out how downright dumb it is for America to continue relying on fossil fuels. Oil, coal, and natural gas are finite and depleting, and burning them changes Earth’s climate and compromises our future, so you might think that curtailing their use would be simple common sense. But there are major players in the debate who want to keep us burning more.

In the past two or three years this debate has reached a significant turning point, and that’s what this book is about. Evidence that climate change is real and caused by human activity has become irrefutable, and serious climate impacts (such as the melting of the Arctic ice cap) have begun appearing sooner, and with greater severity, than had been forecast. Yet at the same time, the notion that fossil fuels are supply-constrained has gone from being generally dismissed, to being partially accepted, to beingvociferouslydismissed. The increasingly dire climate story has achieved widespread (though still insufficient) coverage, but the puzzling reversals of public perception regarding fossil fuel scarcity or abundance have received little analysis outside the specialist literature. Yet, as I will argue, claims of abundance are being used by the fossil fuel industry to change the public conversation about energy and climate, especially in the United States, from one of, “How shall we reduce our carbon emissions?” to “How shall we spend our newfound energy wealth?”

I will argue that this is an insidious and misleading tactic, and that the abundance argument is based not so much on solid data (though oil and gas production figures have indeed surged in the United States), as on exaggerations about future production potential, and on a pattern of denial regarding steep costs to the environment and human health.

The change in our public conversation about energy is predicated on new drilling technology and its ability to access previously off-limits supplies of crude oil and natural gas. In the chapters ahead, we will explore this technology—its history, its impacts, and its potential to deliver on the promises being made about it. As we will see, horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing (“fracking”) for oil and gas pose a danger not just to local water and air quality, but also to sound energy policy, and therefore to our collective ability to avert the greatest human-made economic and environmental catastrophe in history.

* * *

Permit me to use a metaphor to further frame the discussion we’ll be having about fossil fuel abundance or scarcity. Since all debates are contests, at least superficially, it’s possible to summarize this one as if it were a game—like a soccer match or a bowling tournament. Of course, it is far more than just a game; the stakes, after all, may amount to the survival or failure of industrial civilization. But games are fun, and it’s easy to keep track of the score. So . . . let the metaphor begin!

First, who are the teams? On one side we have the oil and gas industry, its public relations minions and its bankers, as well as a few official agencies—including the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)—that tend to parrot industry statistics and forecasts. This team is respected and well funded. For reasons that will become apparent in a moment, we’ll call this team “the Cornucopians” (after the mythical horn of plenty, an endless source of good things).

The other team consists of an informal association of retired and independent petroleum geologists and energy analysts. This team has little funding, is poorly organized, and hardly even existed as a recognizable entity a decade ago. This is my team; let’s call us “the Peakists” (in reference to the observation that rates of extraction of nonrenewable resources tend to peak and then decline).

These two teams have very different views of the energy world. Back in 2003, the Cornucopians were saying that global oil production would continue to increase in the years and decades ahead to meet rising demand, which would in turn grow at historic rates of about 3% per year (about the same rate at which the economy was expanding). Meanwhile oil prices would stay at approximately their then-current level of $20 to $25 per barrel.1The Cornucopians’ message could be summarized as “There’s nothing to worry about, folks. Just keep driving.”

Figure 1. World Oil Production Forecast to 2030 (Cornucopians).

Source: International Energy Agency,World Energy Outlook 2003.

Figure 2. World Oil Production Forecast to 2050 (Peakists).

Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, July 2003.

This view was in stark contrast to that of us Peakists, who, based on geological evidence from around the world (depleting older supergiant oil fields, declining rates of discovery of new fields, and increasing costs to develop them), were saying that rates of global oil production would soon reach a maximum and start to diminish, while petroleum prices would soar.2The Peakists’ argument wasn’t that the world would suddenlyrun outof oil anytime soon, but that the end ofcheapoil andexpanding rates of productionwas approaching. Since oil price spikes have had severe economic impacts in recent decades, the implication was clearly that societies would be better off weaning themselves from oil as quickly as possible.

Well, what has actually happened? How has the game progressed so far?

In 2005, world crude oil extraction rates effectively stopped growing. In that year the average global production rate was 73.8 million barrels per day (mb/d); in 2012, that rate had only increased to 75.0 mb/d—a relatively insignificant bump of less than 1.5 mb/d in seven years (a 0.3% average annual rate of growth). This was completely counter to the forecasts of the Cornucopians, but it fit the views of the supply pessimists well. Point for the Peakists.

Figure 3. World Crude Oil Production, 1995–2012.World oil production growth tapered off markedly after 2005.

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2013. Data include lease condensates and exclude natural gas plant liquids, refinery process gain, and biofuels.

With oil supply rates stagnant, prices went up—soaring from a yearly (inflation adjusted) average of $35 per barrel in 2003 to a yearly average of $110 in 2012. Again, this development was completely unforeseen by Cornucopians but had been clearly and repeatedly forecast by Peakists. Point for my side.