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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Create the retirement you desire with proven financial strategies The New Rules of Retirement throws away the rules of thumb, clichés, and obsolete ideas. It provides a proven, updated approach to retiring successfully in today's world. In this new second edition based on independent, objective research, retirement expert Robert C. Carlson uses proven, profitable techniques to coordinate all the factors that lead to financial security and independence. You'll learn how much you really need to save for retirement, how to invest that nest egg before and during retirement, and how to establish a wise and sustainable spending strategy. Carlson will explain how to overcome the threats to lifetime financial security, such as longer life expectancy, low investment returns, higher taxes, and more. Importantly, you'll learn how to plan for the wildcards of retirement planning: health care and long-term care expenses. This edition covers changes in key areas such as annuities, IRA management, estate planning, and income taxes. You'll learn how to merge these insights into your plan to enhance financial security and to provide for loved ones in the future. Retirement no longer means being put out to pasture. Today's retirees are traveling the world, attending classes, developing new skills, starting businesses, mastering neglected hobbies, and more--well into their golden years. This guide helps ensure you have the financial independence to pursue the retirement you want through smart planning and effective financial strategies. * Know and overcome the threats to retiree financial security * Learn the right way to estimate retirement spending * Develop a sustainable spending strategy * Invest your nest egg to make it last * Plan for potential long-term health care * Leave a legacy for loved ones The retirement is now a new phase of life, not a winding down. It's a time to live your best life and do things you couldn't before. But all the financial aspects of retirement have changed. To maintain financial security and create the retirement you desire, you need to be on top of the changes. The New Rules of Retirement provides the latest, proven strategies that help put the shine in your golden years.
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Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Preface
New Help for Retirement
The Retirement Process
Retirement Activities to Avoid
The New Retirement and You
About the Author
Chapter 1: The New Rules of Retirement
Six Threats to Lifetime Income Security
You Can Create Safe, Secure, Sustainable Lifetime Income
Chapter 2: Start with Spending
The 80 Percent Rule
The Double Trouble Method
Your Starting Point
How Much Will You Really Need?
Uncertainty and Monte Carlo
A Successful Retirement
How Much Is Enough?
Chapter 3: Securing and Maximizing Guaranteed Lifetime Income
Securing Basic Expenses with Guaranteed Income
Secrets to Boosting Social Security Benefits
When to Begin Benefits—The Basic Choices
Introducing Spousal Benefits
Maximizing Benefits for the Divorced and Widowed
Fixing Social Security Claiming Mistakes
A Caution about Delaying Benefits
Working Can Reduce Benefits
A Note about Social Security Solvency
Guaranteed Income from Annuities
Immediate Annuity Basics
The Advantages of Longevity Annuities
Other Annuities You Might Hear About
Annuity Safety
Chapter 4: Tapping Your Nest Egg
How Long Should It Last?
The 4 Percent Rule
Understanding Dynamic Spending
The Endowment Formula
Summary
Chapter 5: Managing Your Nest Egg
The Classic Advice
Invest Like the Rest
Two Portfolio Anchors
Better Ways to Build Retirement Portfolios
Your Retirement Investment Strategy
Chapter 6: Handling the Medical Expense Wild Card
Some Medicare Basics
Enrolling in Medicare
Part B Premiums
Traditional Medicare versus Medicare Advantage
Shopping for Medicare Supplement Plans
The Retirement Advantages of HSAs
Planning and Estimating Retirement Medical Expenses
Final Words on Retirement Medical Expenses
Chapter 7: Dealing with the Crisis in Long-Term Care
Will You Need Long-Term Care?
Relying on Family
What Medicare Offers
Medicaid and Medicaid Trust Strategies
Evaluating Long-Term Care Insurance
Exploring the Hybrid or Combination Policies
Using Permanent Life Insurance
Forging Your LTC Plan
Chapter 8: Managing IRAs to Last
Navigating the Required Minimum Distribution Minefield
Empty an IRA Early?
Converting a Regular IRA to a Roth IRA
Using RMDs to Buy Life Insurance
Using the Family Bank Strategy
Which Account to Spend First?
Which Investments for Tax-Deferred Accounts?
Owning Nontraditional IRA Investments
Chapter 9: Beware the Retirement Tax Ambush
The Stealth Taxes
Managing for a Low Tax Bracket
Retirees' Special Tax Problem
Chapter 10: Handling Employer Retirement Plans
Defined Benefit Plan: Take an Annuity or Lump Sum?
Evaluating Pension Buyout Offers
401(k) Issues and Strategies
Chapter 11: The Grandkids Need Your Help More than Ever
A Small Sum Builds a Large Legacy—The Installment Plan to Building a Legacy
Guide to Helping with a Grandchild's Education
Bringing it All Together
Helping Beyond College
No-Tax, Low-Cost Way to Help a Grandchild
Simple, Low-Cost Ways to Help
Teaching Grandkids Wealth Management
Chapter 12: Estate Planning Is More than Taxes
Estate Planning Essentials for Everyone
Ensuring Your Estate Plan Essentials
Writing a Better Will
The Estate Tax
The 20-Minute Estate Plan
The Turnabout in Tax Planning
Chapter 13: Avoiding Financial Scams and Abuse
Comparing Fraud and Abuse
Protecting Yourself from Scams and Abuse
Making Identity Theft Less Likely
Closing the Door to Your Greatest Fraud Risk
Chapter 14: Choosing the Right Retirement Location
Start with You
Survey the Country
Types of Retirement Housing
Avoiding the Boomerang
New World of Adult Living Choices
Chapter 15: Keys to a Successful Retirement
The Vacation Retirement
Two Important, Overlooked Issues
Key Retirement Mistakes to Avoid
Keeping Up with Changes
Things That Really Matter
Index
End User License Agreement
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Guide
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
List of Illustrations
Chapter 11: The Grandkids Need Your Help More than Ever
Figure 11.1 How a Small Sum Builds a Legacy
List of Tables
Chapter 2: Start with Spending
Table 2.1 Dollars Needed to Retain Purchasing Power
Chapter 3: Securing and Maximizing Guaranteed Lifetime Income
Table 3.1 Full Retirement Age Schedule
Chapter 6: Handling the Medical Expense Wild Card
Table 6.1 Who Paid Higher Premiums in 2016?
Table 6.2 Coverage of Authorized Plans
Table 6.3 Who Paid Higher Part D Premiums in 2016?
Chapter 7: Dealing with the Crisis in Long-Term Care
Table 7.1 Percentage of LTCI Applicants Denied Coverage
Chapter 8: Managing IRAs to Last
Table 8.1 Which Account to Spend First?
Chapter 11: The Grandkids Need Your Help More than Ever
Table 11.1 Monthly Deposit
The New Rules of Retirement
Strategies for a Secure Future
Second Edition
Robert C. Carlson
Copyright © 2016 by Robert C. Carlson. All rights reserved.
Published by JohnWiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
The First Edition was published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. in 2004.
Published simultaneously in Canada.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Names: Carlson, Robert C., 1957–author.
Title: The new rules of retirement : strategies for a secure future / Robert C. Carlson.
Description: Second edition. | Hoboken, New Jersey : JohnWiley & Sons, Inc., [2016] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2015050104 (print) | LCCN 2016005041 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119183556 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119183532 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119183495 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Retirement—United States—Planning. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Personal Finance / Retirement Planning.
Classification: LCC HQ1063.2.U6 C37 2016 (print) | LCC HQ1063.2.U6 (ebook)| DDC 332.024/014—dc23
LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015050104
Cover Design: Wiley
To Elaine, my wife and best friend
Preface
Retirement Has Changed … Again
Retirement and retirement planning are changing … In the future, there will be more changes to retirement, and the changes will occur much more rapidly.”
That was the opening of the first edition of The New Rules of Retirement. That opening couldn't have been more accurate, and it still applies today.
Though the first baby boomers hadn't yet reached age 65 when the first edition published (that didn't happen until 2011), they already had an impact on retirement and would continue to transform the post-career years. Other forces and trends joined with the boomers' reaching the silver years to break the old retirement rules. In only 10 years we had to adjust to these and other changes:
Life expectancy, and therefore the length of retirement, steadily increases.
Employers and governments continue to reduce benefits to older Americans, leaving retirees more and more on their own.
Higher-income older Americans are receiving even less support as the government programs become more means-tested.
Income and estate tax laws changed significantly, requiring updates to plans.
The nontax factors in estate planning became more prominent and were revised and updated.
The Affordable Care Act of 2010 introduced many changes to medical insurance and benefit plans, including changes to Medicare.
Long-term care insurance underwent a couple of revolutions, with both good and bad consequences for retirees.
Of course, few people expected the turmoil in the economy and investment markets and how they would affect retirement plans. The financial crisis of 2008 affected the economy more adversely than any event since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The downturn in the investment markets marked the second decline in the major stock market indexes of more than 50 percent in less than a decade. The Federal Reserve brought interest rates to near 0 percent in response to the crisis, changing the investment plans of many people who were in or near retirement.
The most important lesson from more than a decade of change is: Retirement has changed and will change again.
You need to expect change. Your plans need flexibility, and you need to be ready to adapt and adjust.
Yes, you need a plan for retirement. You also need to realize that it is only a plan. It isn't set in stone, and it isn't a blueprint for the future from which you shouldn't deviate. A plan is based on assumptions about the future. You'll estimate inflation, interest rates, investment markets, the tax law, medical insurance, and more. Reality rarely will match all the assumptions or even come close. Some assumptions will be on target. Others will be a little off the mark, while still others won't even be close.
Plans need to be reviewed and adjusted. When you are in or near retirement, plans need to be reviewed annually. You don't want to review and change plans too frequently, because then you'll be responding to each little change in the investment markets. Regular reviews, however, mean only minor changes in your retirement plan can keep you on track. When too much time passes between plan updates and reviews, then you're likely to need major upheavals to put a plan back on track.
New Help for Retirement
Perhaps the most important change in retirement planning in the last decade is the fresh focus of professionals and academics. When I prepared the first edition of this book, few financial professionals or academics addressed the issues of Americans in or nearing retirement. They were still concerned with helping younger people maximize the accumulation of wealth. They largely neglected the needs of those who were past the accumulation phase of life and were in that post-career spending, or decumulation, stage of life.
Most of those who did offer advice for retirees relied too often on rules of thumb, intuition, and shortcuts to make recommendations. Only a few of us spent the time to create and analyze data to make recommendations. When we did, as readers of the first edition learned, the best actions often were counterintuitive. The rules of thumb and short cuts often led to recommendations that either made sense only in the past or that didn't stand up to analysis.
All that has changed. Now, there is a fairly robust collection of academics and financial professionals vigorously addressing the needs and concerns of older Americans. They use detailed research, data, and analysis to demonstrate the results that would occur from taking different actions under different circumstances. That means retirees and their advisors can spend more time analyzing individual situations and less time constructing models and data. It also means that the problems of retirees benefit from the attention, experience, and intellectual capital of a large number of professionals instead of only a few.
A related change is a new focus on strategies for generating reliable streams of income and cash flow in retirement. Until a few years ago, almost all investment research was geared toward maximizing long-term total returns. With the aging of the baby boomers, there's a realization that a large number of people no longer are interested in total returns. They're interested in making their wealth last, keeping it safe, and generating reliable income to ensure they can pay their expenses for an indefinite period. “Keep my money safe and pay me income” is the new Holy Grail of investing. It is receiving attention from major financial firms, academics, and a range of financial professionals.
In short, those in or near retirement have a lot more intellectual support than they used to, and it will improve retirement advice and outcomes. This intellectual support wasn't available until only a few years ago. Your retirement will be better because of the ideas and research generated.
The Retirement Process
For the first generation or two of American retirees, retirement was an event. A person reached a certain age, usually 65, and then stopped working. Retirement usually was filled with leisure pursuits: travel, recreation, spoiling the grandchildren, and similar activities.
While that model of retirement still exists, more and more Americans are shifting to different retirement models. The old model simply isn't appropriate for many of us.
Extending Careers
One emerging retirement model is to work past the age of 65. There are a number of reasons people do this.
German Chancellor Otto van Bismarck is said to have originated the practice of retiring at age 65 when he created the first old-age social insurance program in 1889. The U.S. Social Security Administration on its website disputes that this was the primary influence on the adoption of 65 as the first full retirement age in Social Security. The SSA points instead to an existing practice of designating age 65 in the U.S. private sector and state retirement systems, as well as actuarial data generated by the government, as the reasons age 65 was adopted.
Whatever the reasons for establishing 65 as the typical retirement age, they don't apply today. People live longer than they did in 1889 or 1935. Age 65 no longer is particularly old and people can live long beyond that, as we discuss later in this book. Many Americans at age 65 are relatively healthy and active. They don't want to stop working.
Research indicates there are many benefits to continuing employment. Mental and physical health often are maintained better with the regular social contact and structure that are part of steady employment. Work also gives a sense of purpose, which is essential at every age.
Of course, many people plan to continue working beyond 65 for financial reasons. The financial crisis of 2008 was a setback to many retirement plans, causing some retirees to seek to return to work while many preretirees began making plans to extend their careers. Since 2008, numerous surveys of Americans ages 40 and over found that many of them plan to continue working longer than they initially planned in order to increase their nest eggs.
Of course, work in retirement doesn't have to be compensated. Volunteer work provides many of the nonfinancial benefits of paid work. Volunteering also can provide psychic income and a sense of purpose because you are contributing to a cause that is important to you.
Keep in mind that retirement age isn't always a matter of choice. About half of retirees report in surveys that they didn't retire when they initially intended. A small percentage of them worked longer than planned, either because they liked what they were doing or needed the money. But most report that they retired earlier than they planned. Only a few retired early voluntarily and because they reached their financial goals. Most retired early involuntarily. Health reasons are a major reason for early retirement. People experience illnesses, injuries, or chronic conditions that make it difficult for them to continue their careers. Others retire early because they lost their jobs and couldn't find satisfactory new positions. After searching for a while, they left the labor force.
Retiring later is a model used by a growing number of people who still are planning and have a choice about when to retire.
Phased Retirement Is Here
A second retirement model growing in popularity is not to retire at all, at least not before health requires it. Leaving a long-time employer and settling down to a few years of travel, relaxation, or just sitting around isn't the game plan for many Americans any more.
Here is a more typical “retirement.” A person in his or her late 50s or early sixties will leave an employer after working for that employer for 10 years or more. That employer will be one of four or five during the career. The next six months to one year will consist of relaxing and enjoying life, essentially taking a sabbatical or “career break.” The period might include traveling, taking up a long-planned hobby, or spending more time on the activities that used to occupy only weekends and vacations. Then the person will search for a more meaningful way to spend some of his or her time.
The next phase of life has many possibilities. All of them are viable and in use today. It might consist of work in the same occupation the person previously had or in a related field. But it is just as likely to be something in a completely different field or industry. The new work might be full-time. In many cases, however, the work is in a lower-paid position with fewer responsibilities and fewer hours.
Some will keep this new job until it is time for a full-time retirement. Others will keep the job for a few years. Then, the person might shift to another position after deciding the current position is no longer fulfilling. The person might move to a completely unrelated position that involves learning new things. Over time, the hours worked might ratchet down. Even minimum-wage work might be sought at one point just to stay active and earn a little extra money. Eventually, the person might stop working altogether or decide to spend the time on volunteer activities for a charity or the community.
For some this is a planned process. Many others intend to retire and can afford to do so, but in their planning they neglected to consider how they would occupy their time in retirement. They return to the work force because they became bored and realized they had to “reboot” their retirement plans. They need to take some time to decide what would be a meaningful and successful retirement for them. Some people retire two or more times before getting it right.
There are many other scenarios. An executive who loves golfing might “retire” and take a job at his local course or club. Another executive might become a consultant, or take a job with a smaller business that needs an experienced hand, or even take a much lower-paying job to help run a charitable organization. Some hope to work at basically the same jobs for the same companies while working fewer hours, and some employers are trying to restructure positions to accommodate this.
Those who study retirement refer to all these possibilities as bridge jobs.
Starting a business in retirement is another course to take. One might start a small, part-time business that is not much more than an attempt to make money at a hobby. Another might have the ambition to build an operation with dozens or hundreds of employees.
These are just a few examples of possible phased retirements. There are likely to be as many retirements as there are retirees.
No longer is there a definite line between work and retirement, and there isn't a standard retirement age. People are more likely to retire in phases or stages, sometimes called downshifting.
Retirement Activities to Avoid
This book focuses on actions you can take to make your retirement successful and better. For a few minutes, however, let's take a look at retirement advice from a negative perspective. Let's consider the actions you want to avoid if you can, those that have been proven to derail retirement plans.
Sometimes the best way to have good results is to avoid mistakes and losses. We have enough experience with retirement to know which actions and events are most likely to cause retirement to suffer a downward spiral. Avoid these and you're well on the way to a successful retirement. Of course, not all these events are within your control. Yet, you can be aware of their potential to upend retirement plans and plan for them by having flexibility in your plans and carrying insurance or other protections when appropriate.
We discuss each of these in more detail in the chapters noted.
Debt
Once it was rare for someone to retire with debt, even a home mortgage. Now, the number of retirement-age Americans with substantial debt is increasing. Some carry debt in retirement as a strategy. They believe leveraging their assets and income increases their standard of living without incurring much risk. Others are less strategic about their debt. They don't pay down their debt before retirement, and they aren't careful about incurring debt in retirement.
It's important to realize that in retirement your finances are less flexible. You have little or no potential for earning more income. Negative financial surprises are likely to occur, especially high medical or long-term care costs. If you're already carrying a fair amount of debt when these expenses arise, you'll have few options for dealing with them. For most people, it's better to eliminate debt before retirement and try to avoid it in retirement, except to deal with emergencies. Details about planning your spending are in Chapter 2.
Spending Too Rapidly
Surveys of retirees and preretirees indicate that many believe they can safely spend 7 percent or more of their assets each year without the risk of running out of money. Financial planners and academics who have studied retirement spending believe the safe spending rate is much lower. This issue is so important we discuss in detail in Chapter 4.
Uncovered Major Medical Expenses
Medicare doesn't cover all your medical expenses, which is something many people don't realize as they enter retirement. Of course, you can't really control when you need medical care. That's why medical expenses and long-term care expenses are the wild cards of retirement planning. We discuss how to plan for these expenses in Chapter 6 and 7.
Helping Others
People want to help their children and grandchildren. Since the financial crisis of 2008 and even before, there's been a trend of boomerang kids in the United States. These are adult children fully or partially supported by their parents, either while living on their own or in the parents' homes.
Retirees need to know there's a line of support they can't cross without endangering their own financial security. Too many are in danger of overextending themselves to help their younger loved ones. That's understandable, but it's dangerous. You're likely to spend down your nest egg too fast, and that will leave both you and the younger generation without any financial support.
Help for younger generations must be affordable for you and shouldn't be open-ended or without expectations of results from the youngsters See Chapters 2 and 4 for discussions of how to plan spending and Chapter 11 for ways to help the younger generations.
Flying Solo
Married couples do better financially in retirement than singles. That's partly because divorce is expensive, requiring the same income to support two households. But it's also because too many retirement plans don't include the contingency that one spouse will pass away, costing the household Social Security and other income sources. A solid plan includes financial security for a surviving spouse. See Chapter 3 for some help on providing guaranteed income to the surviving spouse.
Fraud
Financial crooks generally target older Americans. Older Americans usually have enough money to entice the crooks, and they're more vulnerable than younger people. Studies show that people generally are more optimistic and trusting as they age, making them susceptible to fraudulent pitches. Others have reduced cognitive functions, so they don't make decisions as well as they used to. Realize you're more of a target for fraud and establish safeguards (see Chapter 13).
Second Homes
Classic retirement goals often include becoming a “snowbird” or having a vacation home. Too many people, however, don't understand the full financial burdens of these goals. A classic mistake is not to factor in the periodic repairs and maintenance required of the second home. These expenses mount as the home gets older and become significant in retirement when incomes are likely to be lower and finances are less flexible (see Chapter 14).
New Businesses
People with successful careers often consider starting businesses in retirement to stay busy. Before traveling this road, be aware of the high potential for failure and the loss of capital. A retirement business should use only capital that isn't needed to maintain the planned standard of living. Be sure to plan your spending carefully as discussed in Chapter 2 and establish a sustainable spending plan as discussed in Chapter 4.
The New Retirement and You
You can have the retirement you desire. You can have financial independence and security. But you have to plan. Key issues must be carefully analyzed before decisions are made. The earlier you start planning, the better. But it's never too late to plan to improve retirement.
You can opt for the traditional retirement of living off your investments and other sources of income you have while filling your time with leisure or fulfilling activities. Or you can opt for the many other possibilities—or a combination of them. Regardless of the retirement you choose, you won't be alone if you don't participate in the traditional retirement that became common after World War II.
Keep in mind that retirement is a relatively new development. As recently as the turn of the twentieth century, few Americans lived past age 50. Only the very wealthy actually retired. We all are learning new things about retirement every day. Your plan needs to include flexibility, because many things will change. All retirement plans are educated guesswork. Regular adjustments are required as we learn more and facts and circumstances change. Even after you are retired, the plan will have to be modified to keep up with changes, so don't view yourself as being locked in to an inflexible retirement plan.
Now let's get to work. We know that the rules of retirement have changed and will continue to do so. We know every facet of retirement has been affected by change in the last decade or so, and each facet probably will be affected by change again. Let's look in detail at the key parts of retirement finances and the decisions that should be made now in order to enhance the retirement years.
About the Author
Robert C. Carlson is editor of the monthly newsletter Retirement Watch. He is also the managing member of Carlson Wealth Advisors, L.L.C. Mr. Carlson is chairman of the board of trustees of the Fairfax County Employees' Retirement System, which has over $3 billion in assets, and was a member of the board of trustees of the Virginia Retirement System from 2000 to 2005, which oversaw $42 billion in assets at the time.
Mr. Carlson was trained as an attorney and accountant, passing the CPA exam. He received his J.D. and an M.S. (Accounting) from the University of Virginia and received his B.S. (Financial Management) from Clemson University. He also is an instrument-rated private pilot. He is listed in several editions of Who's Who in America and Who's Who in the World.
Chapter 1The New Rules of Retirement
Keep my principal secure
.
Pay me income
.
Protect me from inflation
.
These are the goals of more and more Americans age 40 and above. As Americans enter or approach their post-career years, their focus shifts from earning higher income and investment returns to preserving their hard-earned nest eggs. They want to receive steady cash flow from their nest eggs and control their expenses. They want to ensure they'll have enough income and assets to meet their lifetime goals.
Steady, secure income means financial independence. That's why interest in developing a continuing, stable stream of cash is booming.
Unfortunately, your job is becoming harder than ever. Your job is to establish and maintain financial security and independence in those post-career years. Not too many years ago, it was fairly easy to establish and maintain financial independence in retirement. Retirees had assistance and support from former employers and the government. Most of them had pensions. It also was fairly easy to convert a preretirement portfolio into a reliable stream of cash flow that helped replace your working years' income. Things are different now.
Much has changed and continues to change in the economy, the markets, government policies, and employer practices. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates dirt low since 2008, and it is likely to be years before rates return to historic average levels. The government is cutting programs and increasing fees and taxes. Employers are slashing benefits. Wall Street and the markets aren't helping much. The rules and choices are becoming more complex. All the factors of retirement finance are changed or changing.
Tough, complicated decisions need to be made about IRAs, 401(k)s, medical insurance, investments, taxes, estate planning, and more. Many of the decisions are irreversible. Make a bad decision or two, and the rest of your retirement plan might not matter.
In 1989, only 30 percent of Americans ages 30 and older were on track to be financially unprepared for retirement, according to the Center for Retirement Research. In 2015, 52 percent of Americans over 30 were considered unlikely to be able to maintain their living standards in retirement. About two-thirds of those aged 45 to 60 said in 2015 they will retire later than they had planned, according to the Conference Board. In 2011, that number was only 42 percent. Government data show that after many decades of declining, the average retirement age has been increasing.
Even those who think they're prepared for retirement often aren't. Almost half of all Americans die with financial assets of less than $10,000, according to recent research by James Poterba, an MIT economist. Many Americans enter retirement with what seemed to be substantial and adequate financial assets, but because of mistakes and unforeseen events they spend faster than they anticipated or should have. They end up with few assets.
It doesn't have to be that way for you.
You can be financially secure during your post-career years, free of the worries that will plague many others in the coming years.
But you can't rely on what worked in the past. Following tired “rules of thumb” and traditional cookie-cutter approaches is the road to income insecurity. Don't travel that road. The markets and economy, tax law, estate planning, health insurance, Medicare, Social Security, long-term care, annuities, and all the other financial aspects of your post-career life are being transformed. You need to use strategies and tools that are different from those that worked for previous generations of retirees.
Six Threats to Lifetime Income Security
Most importantly, you need to know how to deal with today's six key threats to lifetime income security. Most of the threats aren't new, but they've been increasing, and so is the danger to your financial security.
Retirement Threat #1: The Foundations Are Crumbling
For decades, Social Security and Medicare provided the secure financial foundation of retirement. They still do. Today, however, those programs are in financial trouble, and they will have to change at some point.
You know about Social Security's problems. If changes aren't made by 2036, a 23 percent cut in benefits will be required to maintain the system, according to its chief actuary. The specifics of its financial condition and potential benefit cuts change annually as estimates are updated, but the general condition doesn't change.
Many people say they don't expect to receive anything from Social Security and aren't including it in their plans. Those are mistakes. Too many people underestimate the importance of Social Security to retirees. Even for many higher-income people who earned at least the maximum Social Security wage base for 35 years, the program replaces 28 percent of preretirement income. For low-income beneficiaries, it replaces 90 percent of preretirement income. On average, Social Security benefits are estimated to provide about 40 percent of the average retiree's income. Also, Social Security is the only income most retirees have that is indexed for inflation.
Most current retirees report depending more and more on Social Security as the years pass. They tend to spend down other assets or see the purchasing power of income and assets dwindle because of inflation. That's why it is important that you understand the role of Social Security and maximize your benefits.
If the program goes under or benefits are reduced substantially, many people will have to make major adjustments. I suspect most benefit reductions would be limited to those who aren't already retired or within 10 years of retirement, except for higher income people. Don't give up on Social Security. Instead, realize its importance to your retirement and plan to maximize and protect your benefits.
Medicare is in even worse shape and is closer to insolvency. Without change, Medicare will be bankrupt by 2022, according to the Congressional Budget Office. (Again, the specific estimate changes annually.) In recent years, there have been a few changes in the program, but more are likely. There are likely to be higher premiums, reduced benefits, more means-testing, and a later eligibility age.
Like it or not, Social Security and Medicare are the foundations of the American retirement, and you'll have a tough time replacing them.
In this book you'll learn how to shore up these foundations of your retirement plan. You'll learn to maximize the benefits you receive from these programs and avoid making the mistakes that thousands of retirees make every year. Learn the facts about Social Security and Medicare and they can be valuable assets, effectively adding many thousands of dollars to your nest egg.
Retirement Threat #2: You're on Your Own for Medical Care
Retirement medical and long-term care costs are prime worries of most Americans. About 67 percent of Americans ages 55 to 65 said medical expenses were the top retirement concern, according to a 2012 survey by Allianz. Many other surveys over the years reported similar results. And rightly so. Medical expenses are the retirement plan wild card.
Medical expenses and health care are among the most misunderstood and underestimated expense for retirees. Consider this:
Many Americans believe that Medicare or their employer's insurance will cover most retirement medical expenses and long-term care expenses they need. That's not even close to the truth.
Only 28 percent of employers with more than 200 employees provide retiree medical coverage (compared to 66 percent in 1968). Most of those that still offer retirement medical benefits are reducing benefits and moving retirees to privately run insurance exchanges. Smaller employers often don't provide any retirement medical benefits.
Medicare pays only 80 percent of
covered
expenses, so you're on the hook for 20 percent of covered expenses with no limit. Plus, there are many medical expenses that aren't covered by Medicare. You need ways to pay for all of those.
Medicare covers only about half of the average member's annual medical expenses. The average retiree will pay $6,000 to $8,000 out-of-pocket each year for medical care, depending on whose estimate is used. That's the average, so many pay more and some pay considerably more.
A married couple age 65 today is estimated on average to need more than $270,000 over the next 20 years to pay for their medical expenses that aren't covered by Medicare. Of course, those with above-average needs or who live past age 85 will need more.
Long-term care expenses generally aren't covered by Medicare. The truth is, Medicare pays for only 25 percent of total nursing home expenses in the United States, and those payments largely are for short-term rehabilitation after an illness or injury. Residents, their families, and Medicaid pay most nursing home expenses.
Most prescription drugs aren't covered by basic Medicare Parts A and B.
Medicare now is means-tested. The higher your income is, the higher your Medicare premiums will be for both traditional Medicare Part B and for prescription drug coverage under Part D.
The Affordable Care Act shifts money away from Medicare, especially the popular Medicare Advantage program, reducing benefits and increasing costs for beneficiaries.
Medical expenses will be one of the three biggest post-career expenses for most people, and they'll only increase as the years go on.
Even many of those who understand they are largely on their own for medical care need to know more than they do. Many pay far too much for Medicare supplement, Part D prescription drug, and long-term care insurance. Recent surveys found that many owners of these policies pay up to twice what they need to.
It doesn't do much good to save and invest for a comfortable retirement and build a legacy for your loved ones only to spend most of your nest egg on medical care and overpriced insurance. You need to stay up to date about Medicare, Part D prescription drug coverage, long-term care, and every other aspect of paying for retirement medical care.
Retirement Threat #3: Avoid the #1 Retirement Planning Mistake
“We didn't realize how much everything would cost, Bob. That's the mistake we made.”
Those were the words of a woman who shared, with her husband, a large lakefront house (with an indoor swimming pool) in a secured golf course community in central Virginia. They also owned a condo in Florida to be near one set of grandchildren in winter.
They weren't scrounging for money. But after five years of retirement, the couple were concerned that they had underestimated the cost of retirement. He took some part-time consulting work, and she also found part-time work.
This is not unusual. Ask many retirees what their biggest retirement planning mistake was, and a high percentage will say that they didn't do a good enough job of estimating retirement spending. Ask financial professionals, and they'll also say that most people don't have a good handle on how much retirement costs.
One-third of U.S. adults who haven't retired say they'll need 25 to 50 percent of their preretirement income in retirement, while another third say they'll need 50 to 75 percent, according to a TIAA-CREF survey.
The traditional rule of thumb used by financial advisors is your annual retirement spending will be about 80 percent of your preretirement income. That's far above the estimate many people use, and it still isn't a good way to estimate your retirement spending.
This simple rule of thumb, one of the great myths of retirement planning, gets many people into trouble.
You will spend less (or nothing) in retirement on expenses such as commuting, new work clothes, payroll taxes, 401(k) contributions, and a few other items. It sounds very logical.
But since you aren't working, you have time to fill. That time might be filled by activities that cost money, such as golf, travel, entertaining, eating out more frequently, going to more shows and movies, hobbies, spoiling the grandchildren, or a host of other possibilities. Over time, you also are likely to incur higher medical expenses.
With parents living longer and children needing more financial help, you could end up helping both your parents and your children. That situation has become more and more common.
The truth is that for many people, expenses stay the same or increase in the first years of retirement. The money goes to different expenses. A rule of thumb that actually works is that the higher your income, the less likely your expenses are to decline in the first years of retirement.
If you don't want to wake up in a cold sweat worrying about money a few years into retirement, ignore the general rule. The question is: How much are you likely to spend in retirement? Many people learn to their regret that the general rules of thumb don't apply to them. We discuss how to estimate retirement spending in Chapter 2.
Even those who correctly estimate their retirement spending often make a different mistake. They fail to consider how inflation affects the purchasing power of income and assets over time. In fact, the most common retirement planning mistake is failing to consider the effects of inflation in retirement plans. Many people develop a spending plan for the first year or two of retirement that matches their income. But they forget that prices and costs change over time.
Inflation is one of the great enemies of retirees. The average three percent annual inflation of the last few decades cuts your purchasing power in half over 24 years and by close to 20 percent after five years. A more modest 2 percent inflation cuts your standard of living by 20 percent after 10 years. It doesn't happen overnight, but it is painful over time.
And don't use the Consumer Price Index to measure inflation. It measures inflation for a basket of goods purchased by a hypothetical American family. Your household spending is different, and so is its inflation rate. In retirement, for example, you'll probably spend less on housing and more on medical care. There are other differences.
You learn in this book the right way to estimate your retirement expenses, the true effects of inflation, and more.
Retirement Threat #4: Most Retirement Investment Advice Is Wrong and Dangerous
Retirees and those close to retirement traditionally receive the worst investment advice. There've been some improvements in recent years as demand from the Baby Boomers forced changes. Yet, many still receive poor investment advice for the years just before retirement and during retirement.
That's not surprising. Most financial advisors and brokers still concentrate on investors who are going to increase their investment accounts each year. That's a growth business. There's not much growth when clients plan to spend their investment funds and draw down their accounts.
The investment advice for retirees used to be simple. As you age, move most of your portfolio into safe, income-producing investments such as short-term bonds, certificates of deposit, and money market funds. Then, live off the income.
That made sense when retirement lasted about five years, interest rates were higher, and you didn't have to worry about wide changes in the cost of living. Now, this advice could be the most dangerous thing you can do in retirement.
More recently, retirees and preretirees were told to invest like everyone else, using diversified portfolios developed using historic returns and computer programs. They were told to buy-and-hold these portfolios and to count on the long-term trends of ever-rising stock prices to fund their retirements. That's a shame, because the results since 2000 have been awful.
The strategy can work over the very long run. Unfortunately, it often produces poor results in the short run. People in or near retirement can't invest based on 80 years of history. What happens in the next 10 years or so is what matters to them, and the results over the next 10 years often vary greatly from the last 10 years and the historic averages. Investment returns in the five years immediately before and after retirement will make or break your retirement plan.
Another problem with most investment advice is that people are told they have diversified portfolios when they really don't. The truth is that when a portfolio is 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, about 90 percent of your total returns and volatility are tied to the stock indexes. Your retirement security rises and falls with the stock indexes.
When the bulls are running, that's a great thing. But the volatility and poor performance of stocks since 2000 have hurt many retirees and put future retirees in uncomfortable positions.
These days, investing conservatively and for safety isn't rewarding, either, thanks to the Federal Reserve board's zero-interest-rate policy and market manipulation. The Fed is saving the economy by punishing savers and those who simply want a comfortable, safe retirement income. Savers are losing money after inflation and taxes.
You have more choices than the traditional safe, low interest investments and investing for the long term while hoping for the best in the short-term. You don't have to bounce up and down with the stock indexes or sit in cash, losing money to inflation and taxes.
Retirement Threat #5: Retirement Lasts Longer Than Most Think
For the first generation of post-World War II retirees, retirement generally lasted five years or so. Today, many people still believe they have to plan only for 5 to 10 years of retirement. The fact is, a 20-year retirement is common, and 30-year retirements aren't unusual.
People on average still retire before age 65. Though many people now say they plan to work longer and the average retirement age has been increasing, about half of people retire involuntarily and before they expected. The fact is that retirement could last a long time, even if you plan to continue working, because you might not retire when you thought. Even for those who retire at age 65 or later, retirement can last a long time. People simply are living longer than they used to.
Here's a sample of what you need to know about longevity. In a married couple in which each spouse is age 65 today, there's about a 20 percent chance either spouse will live to 95. When both spouses are 55, there's a 43 percent chance at least one will live past 95, according to annuity mortality tables. In about 15 years, the odds will increase by about 50 percent, according to the insurance actuaries.
Many people born in 1946 and later can expect to spend more than 30 years in retirement. Some will spend more time in retirement than they did in their careers.
There's another twist to consider. Life expectancy increases with wealth and education. The wealthier and better educated a person, the greater on average is the life expectancy. Such a person has access to better medical care and is more likely to make smart lifestyle choices. The person's career probably wasn't physically demanding and was unlikely to result in injuries or disability. These factors make an above-average life expectancy more likely, probably about four years longer than the average for his or her age.
Life spans are likely to increase in coming years as science discovers new treatments and cures.
There are many benefits to longevity and longer life spans. But there's one giant negative. The nest egg needed to pay for all those years of retirement can be substantial. You have to save enough money and keep that nest egg growing to pay for all those years of retirement and protect the purchasing power from decades of inflation.
Retirement Threat #6: Your Taxes Won't Go Down in Retirement
It used to be a truism that taxes and tax rates would decline in retirement. That's no longer the case.
These days, someone's taxes and tax rate are less likely to decline after retiring. Even if they do, they're likely to creep up during retirement. In many cases, a person's marginal income tax rate actually increases in retirement, and retirees face some of the highest marginal tax rates in history. Average tax rates are likely to stay the same or increase.
You have to be on constant guard against politicians devising new and creative ways to get their hands on your nest egg. It's only going to get worse as the population ages.
The bottom line is that for most retirees, taxes are one of the three largest items in their budgets. The situation is likely to get worse. Congress and state and local governments are far more likely to increase your taxes than to cut them.
You'll learn effective tax reduction strategies throughout the book, but we focus on ways to plan for lower taxes in Chapter 9.
You Can Create Safe, Secure, Sustainable Lifetime Income
You don't have to stand there meekly and let these risks destroy your nest egg. You can fight and win. You can build a fortress around your assets and generate reliable cash flow.
I believe today is a great opportunity for those who prepare for retirement and adapt to the recent changes and those to come. Be clear that there isn't a magic formula, silver bullet, or single ideal investment. You'll have to look elsewhere for gimmicks and fads. You can create a successful retirement by using a toolbox of strategies and a solid plan. You'll also need to ignore the status quo, conventional rules of thumb, and standard Wall Street advice.
I find that simple solutions often are the best. You need to push past the complexity so beloved by Wall Street and Washington and find strategies that will maximize your cash flow.
Most importantly, remember a retirement plan is a process, not an event. As you've seen, the rules and circumstances keep changing. You can't set-it-and-forget-it. Be sure you're aware of changes, carefully analyze how they affect you, and choose a course of action that will work for you.
We know that retirement in the future will be as different from the retirement of the past as night is from day. Those who planned for retirement only 15 or 20 years ago would be shocked by the task faced by their counterparts today. Many of the issues and questions to be addressed today weren't even on the radar screen not long ago.
The first real generation of American retirees, those who retired in the 1960s and 1970s, developed the image of retirement that many Americans still hold today. For most of the second, third, and fourth retirement generations, things will be different. Sometimes they will be shockingly different.
Many observers paint a gloomy picture of retirement in the coming years. Yet there is no reason for the majority of people to experience a retirement that is less satisfying than was experienced by the first generation of retirees. Most of us should be able to create the retirement we desire.
Retirement is an opportunity. It is an opportunity to do things you never could find the time for. It is a chance to plan how to spend your next 50 years. But to take advantage of the retirement opportunity, you have to plan and prepare. Most of all, you need to know the new rules of retirement planning.
In the coming chapters, we'll explore the financial concerns of retirees and preretirees and how they are affected by the trends I've identified. We'll look at how to estimate retirement spending and how much money you should accumulate for retirement. I'll explain the medical expense options and how to pay for long-term care. You'll learn how to invest before and during retirement. I'll show you how to plan an estate, cut taxes, and provide for loved ones. We'll cover these topics and much more. I'm not going to give you the obvious advice, such as start early, invest the maximum in a 401(k) account, and invest for the long term. Think of this book as your instruction manual for the new world of retirement.
You can have the retirement you desire, but you must act now to stay ahead of the dramatic, rapid changes that are taking place. Even those who already are retired are affected and must act. Those who don't learn about and understand the shifting world of retirement will have retirement years filled with worry and anxiety. Those who understand the new rules of retirement will make decisions with confidence and be able to take advantage of all their retirement opportunities.
Chapter 2Start with Spending
The main goal of a retirement plan is to be sure you have enough income or cash flow to maintain the retirement standard of living you want. To meet that goal, first, you need to estimate how much a year of your retirement standard of living will cost. Second, you need to generate income to pay those expenses.
In this chapter we focus on estimating your retirement spending. In the next chapter we'll begin looking at ways to generate the income needed to fund that spending.
It is difficult to make retirement plans, even something as simple as setting a retirement date, without estimating the cost of your retirement. Every other part of a retirement plan hinges on how much you plan to spend. If that estimate is way off the mark, the rest of your plan will be way off. Some people overestimate how much they'll spend in retirement, and that causes them to reduce their preretirement standard of living so they can save enough for retirement. Others underestimate retirement spending and find they need to make substantial adjustments after retiring.
Even if you already are retired or very close to it, estimating future spending now is important. The steps we discuss in this chapter will give you a good handle on how long your money is likely to last under current practices and let you know if adjustments need to be made. Those who carefully estimated spending before retirement should repeat the exercise every year or so to see how accurate the estimates are and whether the plan needs to be adjusted.
How important is this step?
The greatest fear of most Americans approaching or in retirement is not having enough income and assets to last through retirement.
Survey after survey confirms that. (Some surveys peg medical expenses or the cost of long-term care as the major concerns, but that's another way of saying people are worried about not having enough money to meet these expenses.) Even surveys of wealthy Americans reveal they worry about their standards of living eroding in retirement. I've met multimillionaires who were genuinely concerned that they wouldn't be able to maintain their preferred lifestyles after retiring.
Ask retirees what their biggest retirement planning mistake was, and a high percentage will say that they didn't do a good enough job of estimating retirement spending. Ask financial professionals, and they'll say that most people don't have a good handle on how much the retirement they desire will cost or even how much they are spending today. Another reason to estimate retirement spending is that surveys show that people who estimate their expenses and capital needs, even if they make poor estimates, save more and are better prepared for retirement than those who do not make estimates.
