Diplomacy Blitz E-Book

Snapshot Systems

• Herausgeber: Snapshot Systems
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Sprache: Englisch

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024

Beschreibung

Volatile international relations are anything but random. Diplomacy Blitz provides a simplified approach that clarifies power dynamics and the most probable alignment of interests related to geopolitical conflicts.

Leseprobe

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No part of this book may be distributed, posted, or reproduced in any form by digital or mechanical means without prior written permission of the publisher.

Snapshot Systems, 2024 (Second edition)

Legal Disclaimer

This book is designed to provide information and motivation to our readers. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged to render any type of psychological, legal, or any other kind of professional advice. The content of each chapter is the sole expression and opinion of its author, and not necessarily that of the publisher. No warranties or guarantees are expressed or implied by the publisher’s choice to include any of the content in this volume. Neither the publisher nor the individual author shall be liable for any physical, psychological, emotional, financial, or commercial damages, including, but not limited to, special, incidental, consequential or other damages. You are responsible for your own choices, actions, and results.

Chapter I: Introduction

The changing dynamics of the international arena might seem chaotic and complex at first glance but, in fact, they simply always comes down to conflicting interests and who has the upper hand. Nothing related to domestic and foreign affairs is too hard to understand. By and large, the leading powers attempt to cement their positions by aiming to increase the level of centralization, while their adversaries’ goal is to interfere with their plans.

There is nothing good or bad in geopolitics, there are just those with power and the rest. Ethical standards are always relativistic and subject to shifts depending on the values and culture of the most dominant groups. What is good for some is often bad for others and those who prevail will adjust the perception for what’s right and wrong in the future. There will always be conflicts of interest, especially in a polarized world with limited resources. The people in charge are driven by the ‘natural desire’ to improve their current position even if at the expense of someone else. Moreover, there is also no such thing as a ‘level playing field’. Everything is situational: natural disasters, economic crises, plagues, or even having a weakened or strengthened neighbor might change the nature of international relationships or take them in a completely new direction. With a bird’s eye view to history, we see that in diplomacy it is never a question of truth and righteousness, but victory and domination.

Chapter II: Regimes

There are many different ways of keeping the governments steady or veering regimes toward instability. The movement could come externally from outside the country or from within. We can clarify the processes by determining the type of power distribution for each ruling system. There are three Power sources applicable to any existing government form: ‘Armed forces’, ‘Single-party system’ and ‘Multi-party system’.

Armed forces - ‘Force-based rule’

There are many cases of internal struggles determined by armed forces, supporting movements or a specific leader. However, it is also possible for the military to establish a totalitarian regime under its strong grip, also known as a junta.

Single-party system - ‘Unipolar Rule’

Quite often leaders make attempts to concentrate more and more power under them, sometimes successfully. This process could be accomplished by force or holding overwhelming support from the public. When it is practically impossible for elections to produce any real opposition or they simply do not exist, such forms of government resemble dictatorship by definition.

Multi-party system- ‘Polycentric Rule’

Last but not least is the multi-party system, an executive leadership formed by non-military ruling class bodies (parliament, cabinet members, judges, regional authorities, business owners, etc.). This is the most common form of government, as it is usually hard to concentrate all power under one ruler. We could call political systems with non-authoritarian regimes various fancy words such as republic, democracy or socialist, but largely they are always a type of oligarchy: certain groups of people controlling the means of power by implementing political mechanisms, investments or ideologies.

Which of the Power sources will dominate could be derived from constitutional modifications by lawmakers, electoral results or forceful government overthrow. Quite often, it is very hard for one of the abovementioned groups of people to fully concentrate all power under their hands and keep it there. In practice, any form of government is a mixture, resembling a combination of the three Power Sources with a partial or stronger predominance of one of the three.

To make it visual and easier to understand, imagine a regular equilateral triangle ABC (lower basis AB oriented horizontally). Now let’s position the three parameters as follows:

● Multi-party (point A) - on the lowermost left-handed vertex of the Triangle;

● Armed forces (point B) - on the lower right-handed vertex of the Triangle;

● Single party (point C) - on the topmost vertex of the Triangle;

Please note: the positioning (left or right) has nothing to do with ideologies in particular. In the context of this book, we care only about where executive power stands, the number of people with legal right to make decisions and how involved the military is. Any resemblance between the ‘left-right’ positioning and political, economic or social systems is purely coincidental.

You have also to keep in mind that ‘size matters’ and so you should bear in mind that a larger population or controlled geographical area requires more government workers to fulfill proper functioning and state coordination (more bureaucracy).

2.1. Triangle of Power

Regardless of which of the three parameters (‘Armed forces‘, ‘Single-party’ and ‘Multi-party’) is most dominant, country’s resources inevitably remain and are controlled by a certain group of people. The only question is how far the Power Structure is going to lean toward this specific Power source, and how concentrated and intense it is going to be. Based on how strong their grip on power is, the regime type could evolve organically toward a different form of government, or might become vulnerable to change by force.

One thing is for sure: the other two Power sources are always involved, at least to a degree. To understand the exact level of influence of every parameter, we will have to create a simplified scale named the Triangle of Power. Once you determine the dominant Power source, split into four equal parts the side of the triangle connecting ‘Single-part system’ and ‘Multi-party system,’ and split into two the sides of the triangle connected to ‘Military rule.’ By doing so, you will have three points on the left-hand side (two points closer to each Power Source and a midpoint) and one point on the other two sides (midpoints).

STEP ONE is to determine which major Power source is the most dominant in the observed country. Is the executive power determined by the military (‘Armed forces’), one decision-making center (‘Single-party system’) or many groups of people (‘Multi-party system’)?

●      ‘Multi-party system’ - mark point A as dominant - this is a very common form of governing with branches of government designed to have executive power and capability to balance or at least limit others (President, Senate, Parliament, Court of Justice, etc.). It could also be a federation with a higher level of autonomy for its member states, or countries heavily influenced by supranational organizations.