The Battle for Water E-Book

Claude Piel

• Herausgeber: Books on Demand
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Sprache: Englisch

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023

Beschreibung

This is the "Diplomatic Council Water Book" which was officially presented at the United Nations Water Conference 2023 in New York. Water is the basis of all life. Although more than 70 percent of our blue planet is covered with water, only three percent of it is fresh water, of which only a third is safe for human beings. Global water consumption has doubled since the 1960s but the resources have not risen proportionately. Approximately two billion people in the world already lack regular access to safe drinking water. Both global warming, which is caused by climate change, and the simultaneous growth of the world's population will lead to a dramatic escalation of the situation. Water will become an increasingly scarce resource: one quarter of the world's population is threatened by acute water shortages. Furthermore, as agriculture cannot exist without water, famines are imminent. Experts consider "water stress" a source of starvation, conflict and migration. Those who believe this affects North Africa and the Middle East only, are mistaken. For also in other parts of the world (America, Asia, Australia, Europe) water stress has long been noticeable. In this book the author precisely analyzes what we will be faced with if we do not succeed in solving the "water problem". At the same time she shows how to secure a global water supply in the future.

Leseprobe

Dedication

This book is dedicated to all those, who have no access to clean drinking water. Whether in the desert or on remote islands, whether in the slums of North America, the favellas of Brazil, the big cities of Africa or Asia: millions of people suffer from the poor quality of drinking water. This book is for them and especially for the children who suffer from the unspeakable lack of clean water.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to the Center for Applied Technologies and the mari-CUBE in the field of blue biotechnologies and aquaculture for their active support.

Thanks to Philippe Cury, a French scientist who has significantly influenced research by developing ecological concepts as well as international scientific leadership on the ecosystem approach to exploited marine resources.

Thanks to the management of the program "Man-Society-Environment" at the University of Basel in Switzerland. It deals with various aspects of sustainable resource management.

Thanks to the global think tank Diplomatic Council, whose publishing house publishes this book and which, as an advisory organization to the United Nations, fights tirelessly for peace and humanity.

Note

The author has taken great care to write this work in her own writing style. This increases the authenticity of her explanations and is an expression of her passion for this essential topic for the survival of mankind.

Content

Foreword

Prologue

Power factor water

Water knowledge is important

Introduction

A speech to the United Nations

Nine billion people by 2040

Actions speak louder than words

A scarce and essential commodity

Three types of conflicts over water

Water wars in the 21

st

century

Interrelationships in conflicts over water

The water powers

The water cycle and rain

The water of life for food and much more

Five types of drinking water

Access to water and infrastructure

Lack of water access and water treatment

The way to clean drinking water

The damage has been done

Over 50 million people without tap water

Cross-border: dam GERD

Cross-border: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

The right of the weaker

Water consumption increases and increases

Global consumption at a glance

The seventy twenty ten split

Freshwater for global nutrition

India draws on its last water reserves

Where has the Aral Sea gone?

The drama of forests and desertification

Soy, the green gold

Possible destruction of the water cycle

Water guzzler industry

Water for the data centers

Water is becoming scarce in Germany

Tesla's Gigafactory in a water conservation area

What are water protection areas?

Less water per person, but more people

Extreme water pollution

Water - victim of all pollution

Many activities lead to water pollution

The consequences for our tap water

From chemical fertilizer, pesticides and greed for money

Pesticides still approved in Europe

Drinking water infrastructures are outdated

Environmental justice for vulnerable groups

3M in Belgium, thermal pollution in the USA

India's drought, fire, Bhopal and Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola - world champion of plastic pollution

The privatization of water supply

Money rush after the blue gold

Tap water: expensive in Oslo, cheap in Beirut

Nestlé's miracle resource water

Nestlé takes Vittel off the market in Germany

Veolia's wastewater billions

Global drama, stock market and stock fever

Which water stocks are worth investing in?

Twelve trillion dollars for water infrastructure

Scarcity due to climate change

Climate change is accelerating

How does the greenhouse effect actually work?

From the water cycle to the heat cycle

Climatic hazards as "main driver"

Ice melt, rising seas and the island states

Satellites for accurate measurements

Permafrost thaws, glaciers shrink

Maldives and Marshall Islands with artificial islands

Day Zero and heavy rain in many regions

Fatal floods in Europe in 2021

Chile's capital rationed tap water

2022: Warning from the Netherlands

Drought and hardly any food: Africa, India, Pakistan

Iran, the Mediterranean and Syria's Climate Refugees

The Mediterranean in danger

The battle for water hardens

Enough water but power, poverty and inequality

Climate change makes forecasts unreliable

Water as a separating or connecting factor?

River Basin Agreement

Paradigm shift and water nomads

Australia bushfires and its water security

Water War and Defense Budgets

India's need for innovative water technologies

German companies in the (waste) water industry

China's water war

No justice, so no war?

The UN seeks the global solution

SDG6 and water as a human right

The limits of growth

The human right to water

The UN Sustainable Development Goals SDG6

Research and data gaps in the water sector

Include the social-ecological systems

Solutions for large/small countries

The larger the region, the more difficult the solution

Sustainable water management is necessary

Improvements in agriculture

Endless project: The "Great Green Wall" in Africa

The water crisis in the United States

Mexico and the USA are in the same boat

China's 80,000 dams

China creates an "ecological civilization"

Norway as the green battery of Europe

Israel's solution with the water in the desert

German turning point and the Netherlands

Measures against drought in the Netherlands

Madeira and the water producing forest

Singapore Water City

Old and new technical solutions

Stone channels in Peru

Sand dams in Kenya

Johads in India

Masada in the Sinai desert

Rainwater harvesting through green buildings

Portable UV water purification system

Portable desalination unit

Water from the air

Water harvesting: ingenious and whimsical ideas

Fight for technology to outer space

Water research and LAWA in New Zealand

Science and environmentally friendly fertilizers

Smart Cities: Drinking Water/Wastewater Treatment

Smart Farming Cambodia and the E-Agriculture

E-Agriculture Platform

Actual state from space

Satellite Assisted Decision Systems

Space for water

Shower like on Mars

What each of us can do

Each of us can save water

Saving drinking water and drinking

Saving tips in the bathroom

Saving water at home

Water saving tips for outdoor

Check costs and repair leaks

Water diplomacy

19 Solutions in the battle for water

Holistic, systematic, multilateral response

About the author

Books by Diplomatic Council

About the Diplomatic Council

Bibliography

Sources and notes

Foreword

With the 2030 Agenda, the global community has set itself 17 ambitious goals – the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – for sustainable development. The sixth goal (SDG6) of the United Nations, clean water, provides:

All people should have access to safe and affordable drinking water.

All people should have access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene.

Water quality is to be improved worldwide through recycling and safe reuse.

Water use efficiency is to be substantially increased in all sectors.

Integrated water resources management should be implemented at all levels.

Water-connected ecosystems should be protected and restored.

Humanity is still a long way from achieving these goals. It is all the more important that Claude Piel shows in her new work why it is imperative not to slacken our efforts and to face up to this challenge. Meticulously researched, carefully prepared and excitingly narrated, the work is a reminder to all of us to treat water with care and not to take it for granted.

In her comprehensive work, the author impressively demonstrates that it is by no means only certain regions of the world that are affected, as is often assumed. Rather, clean water poses enormous challenges for the entire world, including the industrialized nations. Let us tackle this task; reading this book - which is admittedly not entirely easy in many places - represents a first and important step on this path.

Hang Nguyen, Secretary General Diplomatic Council

Prologue

The water war is a geopolitical reality today. We need water for survival, for a functioning eco system and for the socioeconomic development of a country. In some countries of the world, thousands and thousands of people die because they have no access to drinking water. Either the infrastructure is not in place, the water is polluted or the soil is too dry. This shortage in some regions of the world is leading many countries to solve the problem in their own way. After all, borders cannot stop rivers. This is one of the causes of conflict.

Power factor water

Some countries have even included power over water resources in their security agenda. In recent decades, however, the number of water agreements between countries has increased. States on the verge of conflict have sought to initiate dialogue on water resources. This is water diplomacy. The key is for governments to recognize: It benefits my country if we cooperate with other countries on water.

With fast economic developments, rapidly increasing populations, and driven by climate change, water-related conflicts and unrest can intensify. With the coronavirus pandemic, the importance of water to people has become even more apparent. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal number six addresses this very issue, as access to safe drinking water is a human right.

While billions of people live far from any basic supply, struggle for access to clean drinking water, and ecosystems perish, liquid blue gold slowly and inexorably floods the financial markets. Several countries have shown that major progress can be made in just a few years. At stake are the three pillars of the United Nations: Peace and Security, Human Rights and Development. Because water means not only life, but also the future.

Water knowledge is important

Why is knowledge about water actually important? In the richer countries, we only need to turn on the tap to get clean drinking water immediately. We shower, bathe and clean our houses until the fire department comes to announce from loudspeakers in the middle of summer the message that from now on it is "forbidden" to carry out these activities. In some places, even in Germany, there was no drinking water at all: with buckets, inhabitants would stand behind a water tanker truck. And this happened in the middle of Europe, not in the Gobi Desert!

There are almost as many books on the subject of water as there are drops of water in the ocean. The aim of this book is not to write a scientific paper or to analyze all the facts as precisely as possible. My work is not based on completeness, but I would like to give the readers food for thought. It is simply a matter of approaching the subject of water seriously and respectfully and considering it as a vital element of our lives that is worth protecting. It is about becoming aware of the conflicts that can arise from a lack of drinking water and what solutions have already been developed.

Because the commercialization of our basic food, water stands in diametral opposition to the human right of "access to safe drinking water." "Every drop counts," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message for World Water Day 2020.1 So does every book and every expansion of our water knowledge.

Wishing you lots of interesting insights as you read!

Claude Piel

Introduction

The light gray mass ripples under the soles of his shoes. From the wide riverbed, it steps over the banks of the East River. Walter looks at his watch. It is shortly before eight on this evening of March 21. He has to get back to the United Nations headquarters. The shiny shadow of the rectangular tower is reflected in the water. This water. The frequent flooding is getting to him. When Hurricane Sandy hit New York in 2012, the United Nations building in New York was difficult to reach. Several subway lines were flooded. Lower-lying parts of Manhattan in particular, as well as Brooklyn and Queens, were at risk. LaGuardia and JFK airports, where ambassadors flying to the United Nations in New York land, were also completely flooded. Not only here, but also in his second adopted home Mainz in Germany or in Myanmar, the Maldives, India...2

It's almost time. Tomorrow, the heads of state and government of 193 nations will gather in the Assembly Hall behind him. Walter works at his country's Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York. Just before Walter was about to leave his office, his ambassador instructed him to draft his speech for the UN Water Conference on March 22 to mark World Water Day. For this, His Excellency needs an analysis of the struggle for water in the world. Walter is a specialist in international relations. This is not the first time for him, but in this case it will not be a walk in the park, because the situation is changing fast. Since climate change and global warming are accelerating, a new situation report is published almost daily by a highly respected scientific organization.

Will he manage to write the speech in the short time? It is eight o'clock. The speech and analysis must be delivered to His Excellency tomorrow morning at eight o'clock so that the ambassador has enough time to add his own words. He has only twelve hours left; tonight he will stay in the office.

A speech to the United Nations

He briefly wipes the East River water off his shoes and turns around. The main entrance is in front of him. He reaches for his passport, because the United Nations building is on an ex-territorial site, outside the territory of the United States of America. This conference will be the first on water since the 1970s and is expected to be a crucial milestone.

"The water and sanitation crisis demands a holistic, systemic and multilateral response," said António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, at the July 2020 virtual launch for the acceleration of the "Global Sustainable Development Goals." "Water is key to deliver almost all other SDGs, from health to food security, and it is essential for resilience to climate change."

Walter is now in the elevator to his ambassador's office and he feels dizzy. Not from the acceleration of the elevator, but in light of his task. The sixth Sustainable Development Goal - water - is a prerequisite for many, if not all, of the other 16 Sustainable Development Goals. Especially in the areas of health and disease prevention, education, food, agriculture, industry, private consumption, pollution, energy and climate change, and migration. Quite simply, water is also at stake in all areas. Arriving at the office of his country's Permanent Mission, he looks for the latest World Water Reports on World Water Day on March 22 each year.3

On the part of the United Nations, UNESCO is the lead agency. Audrey Azoulays, then Director-General, said in 2021 that water is “a "blue gold" to which more than two billion people do not have direct access." World Water Day has been part of the United Nations agenda since 1993. In 2020, it was about water and climate change; in 2021, it was about water assessment and valuation; and in 2022, it was about groundwater - making the invisible visible. "The word "water" rarely appears in international climate agreements, even though it plays a key role in issues such as food security, energy production, economic development and poverty reduction”, Audrey Azoulay continued. “Water does not need to be a problem,” she said, “it can be part of the solution”.4

Nine billion people by 2040

However, the outlook is worrying. By 2040, the United Nations estimates that there will be nine billion people on earth instead of eight today. By then, global energy demand is expected to increase by more than 25 percent and water demand by more than 50 percent. By 2050, up to 5.7 billion people could spend at least one month a year living in areas where water is scarce. Extreme weather caused more than 90 percent of major disasters in the last decade. At the same time, conflicts over water resources don't seem to stop. The water issue is gradually replacing the oil issue.5

In India and Iran, severe water shortages have led to an increase in conflicts within these countries in recent years. Between Russia and Ukraine, the situation has been worsening since 2014, and it has been spreading to water infrastructure since the war began in 2022. Computerized water systems are increasingly the victims of cyberattacks that threaten water security, quality, and reliability. Globally, social prosperity and economic development depend heavily on water. Herein lie the three greatest challenges for water management in the 21st century. These are the preservation of ecosystems, the provision of drinking water for people, and sufficient water for agriculture.6

Actions speak louder than words

Solutions are definitely on the horizon. Climate-resilient water supply and sanitation could save the lives of more than 360,000 babies every year. If we limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we could reduce climate-related water stress by up to 50 percent. That would reduce tensions and stop potential wars from starting. 7

Would. Could. Now Walter absolutely has to give his analysis a structured direction, because he can't go on like this. There are too many alarming facts, and his ambassador needs answers. First, he will turn his attention to the various conflicts surrounding water, because water has often been a reason to gather, but also to fight over it. In the next step, he will look for the causes of these conflicts. Many lie in the scarcity itself, but mainly in access to water and infrastructure. Then it is about the shortage caused by the high global consumption, the pollution and the handling of this valuable commodity by many corporations characterized by greed for profit. Thus, the reasons for climate change and the increased water stress we are experiencing today also become clear. This results in the danger of new water struggles: the challenge of this century.

What interests his ambassador most are solutions. First, he looks for them at the global level, at the level of the United Nations with the support of the 193 states and the various organizations. Then he looks for countries that have solved the problem in their own way. In doing so, he finds both old and new technologies that could help solve our drinking water problem. Moreover, each of us is in a position to consider water as our most precious resource. Time is racing, there are only a few hours left until the General Assembly. Walter immediately gets to work.

A scarce and essential commodity

"The next wars in the Middle East will be fought over water," warned Boutros Boutros-Ghali, a former secretary-general of the United Nations, back in 1985.8 His prediction has not yet come true, but the first thing for Walter is to understand what water wars actually are. Water war is a term for all the problems humanity faces when it comes to water resources. It describes the conflicts that countries, states or groups experience regarding water scarcity. Water scarcity has most often led to conflicts at the local and regional level. Thus, if one considers water as a limited resource, water conflicts arise because either the demand for water resources and drinking water exceeds the supply, because control over access and allocation of water may be contested, or because water management institutions are weak or absent altogether.9

Elements of a water crisis can put the affected parties under such pressure that it leads to diplomatic tensions or, in the worst case, to an open conflict. Reasons for conflict include violence, i.e., injuries or deaths, threats of violence including verbal threats, military maneuvers, and demonstrations of power. Walter does not want to include unintended or incidental adverse impacts on populations or communities that occur in the context of water management decisions. This includes, for example, people displaced by dam construction or exposed to the effects of extreme events such as floods or droughts. He considers this to be increased water stress.10

Three types of conflicts over water

There are three types of water-related conflicts, which can be categorized as follows. First, water is the trigger of violence or the cause of conflict due to water scarcity, a dispute over control of water, or water systems. Water conflicts can also arise from disrupted economic access to water, through profiteering or increased price, or when physical access to water is prevented.11

Second, water can be used as a weapon or tool in violent conflicts. For example, armed groups in the Libyan capital Tripoli cut off the population from water by attacking water pumping stations, or Israeli settlers flooded Palestinian olive groves with sewage in 2019.

Third, water resources or water systems are often the bone of contention in conflicts and become the target of violence, intentionally or accidentally. Yemen's civilian water infrastructure was repeatedly attacked during the war there. Israeli settlers and military forces have reportedly destroyed a variety of Palestinian agricultural irrigation systems, water tanks, and water sources. Egyptian hackers launched a cyberattack on Ethiopian water systems in June 2020 in anger over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Moreover, water can trigger conflict when access or control is disputed. This was the case with demonstrations and unrest in Iran in 2019, 2020, and 2021, over the detour of water from the Zayanderud River in the city of Isfahan, or over access to irrigation water in India and Pakistan during severe droughts.

Human history is riddled with examples of the use of water as an instrument or target in conflicts.12 Walter tries to remember a few. The earliest known example of a real interstate conflict over water occurs between 2500 and 2350 BC, between the Sumerian city-states of Umma and Lagash in Mesopotamia, now Iraq. The issue was the maintenance and expansion of the irrigation system, as crops depended on it. Umma was located further upstream on the Tigris River and could thus divert large amounts of water through canals into its own land. This led to conflict.

Another early conflict over water took place in 596 BC, when the Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar destroyed part of the aqueduct that supplied the city of Tyre to put an end to an endless siege. Or in 1503, during the battle between Florence and Pisa, in which Leonardo da Vinci and Machiavelli tried to divert the course of the Arno to cut off Pisa from its access to the sea. In a later water conflict in 1938, Chiang Kai-shek, the then leader of China, ordered the destruction of dikes on part of the Yellow River in China to flood areas threatened by the Japanese army.

From 1939 to 1945, power plant dams were bombed and were considered strategic targets. In Vietnam in the 1960s, many dikes were targets of bombing; between two and three million people are estimated to have drowned or starved to death as a result of these attacks. In 1999, water points and wells in Kosovo were contaminated by Serbs. That same year, a bomb blast destroyed the main pipeline in Lusaka, Zambia, depriving its three million inhabitants of water. Since the end of the 20th century, water resources and facilities have been under increasing threat, particularly in Africa, the Balkans and the Middle East.13

Walter continues his researches and finds the book "Guerre et eau" by Franck Galland published by Robert Laffont.14 Examples of wars in which water plays a role exist from the First World War. At that time, water was not included in the military maneuvers of the war from 1914 to 1918. From the introduction of the Army Water Service on the Western Front, after the human disaster of the first months of 1914 when the French Army could not benefit from an adequate water supply to the Eastern Front, where the British of the Egyptian Expeditionary Corps were able to turn a shortage into an advantage by supplying Jerusalem with water. In the liberation of the Holy City from the Ottoman yoke after only six months, Walter discovers the relevance of a scheme in which hydraulic infrastructure becomes factors of peace and stability.

The book cites World War II as another example of a war in which water is relevant. It is about how water is integrated into military maneuvers. Lessons are learned from World War I, and French forces in 1940 are prepared for a water supply. The book also describes war in the desert and the importance of water management, with the German African corps benefiting over British forces. Finally, Walter finds documentation of the long and careful preparation for the Normandy landings, ranging from knowledge of available water resources, soils and groundwater thanks to the support of the Resistance, to the intervention of a special intelligence unit, Special Operations Executive.15

Today, there are more modern forms of water conflicts. After 1945, water became the target of destruction in many modern asymmetric conflicts, up to and including ISIS occupying dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Walter finds other techniques of subversive warfare, such as poisoning wells, flooding, or occupying dams. Water was also involved in the revolutionary wars in Vietnam, the civil wars of 1980 to 1990 in Lebanon, the war in the former Yugoslavia, up to the conflicts of the Arab Spring in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. Water has played an essential role as a vital resource, an object, or a weapon of mass destruction in complete disregard of the Geneva Conventions. It could also be about terrorist threats to drinking water systems, which Walter fortunately does not encounter in his research.

Today, it is more about a war or fight "for water." It is about the recent political and diplomatic initiatives aimed at addressing issues and challenges related to the protection of water infrastructure in the United Nations Security Council. The first time in the history of this institution and an urgent concern. Finally, there is a need to better prepare armies to intervene in areas of high instability and lack of water resources. Perhaps a multinational force should be established to support repairs and construction of water infrastructure, Walter muses. This would involve stabilization and peacekeeping operations of countries, such as the G5 Sahel or Syria, that are being rebuilt and where drinking water supply systems have become strategic.

It always revolves around the same topic: Global freshwater consumption is estimated to have increased by around one percent per year between 1987 and 2015. Many regions of the global south are reaching their supply limits. There is reason to fear that the poorest countries, which do not have enough water to meet their water needs and are unable to buy sufficient water, will do everything in their power to enable their nation to survive. It's not nice, Walter thinks to himself, to witness people fighting for their lives or countries fighting each other to survive.

Water wars in the 21st century

For Walter, it is increasingly clear that the failure to meet basic human needs for water is contributing to tensions over access to water. About 40 percent of the world's population lives along rivers that cross international borders. The question of how to equally share vital water resources is causing major tensions around the world. More than 280 watercourses flow through several countries. Water, like many other natural elements, cannot be stopped by state borders. In 1995, then World Bank Vice President Dr. Ismail Serageldin said, "If the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water – unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource." The United Nations projects that two-thirds of the world's population will live in regions of water stress by 2025. Massive water shortages could displace 700 million people worldwide in the following years. The likelihood of transboundary water conflicts could increase by 95 percent in the next century. 16

Walter first wants to find out where on Earth people have the worst access to water. A 2018 report by the International Monetary Fund ranked Pakistan third among countries acutely facing water storage problems. First place was East Timor, followed by second Yemen, third Pakistan, fourth Turkmenistan, fifth Morocco, sixth Lesotho, seventh Mongolia, eighth India, ninth Tajikistan, 10th Djibouti, 11th Indonesia, 12th Philippines, 13th Peru, 14th Swaziland, and 15th South Africa. Aid organizations such as World Vision have compiled a list of countries that have poor access to water. Tenth on the list is Mozambique, with 52.7 percent lacking basic access to water. In Mozambique, rural and northern populations are the worst off when it comes to clean water and sanitation. In addition, rapid population growth and urbanization are straining all water systems. In March and April 2019, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth dealt a terrible blow to the coastal city of Beira and the north, respectively, displacing many families. Flooding continued for months, creating conditions for outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne diseases.17

On the ninth place is Niger, where 54.2 percent of the population lacks basic water access. Niger, the largest state in West Africa, is one of the poorest countries in the world. Almost half of the population lives on less than $1.90 a day. Most people farm land, so they face water shortages and frequent droughts in arid, desert-like conditions. Chad ranks eighth, with 57.5 percent lacking basic water access. In Chad, nearly six percent of the 12.2 million population relies on drawing water from unsafe open sources such as streams and rivers that animals also use. The Democratic Republic of Congo ranks seventh, with 58.2 percent lacking basic water supplies. The Democratic Republic of Congo is the second largest country in Africa after Algeria. Within its borders, there are conflicts in the eastern and central Kasai regions. Disease outbreaks, including the Ebola virus disease in the northeast of the country, are common. Poverty is very high, and national income per capita is less than $800 per year. More than 50 million people in the Democratic Republic of Congo use unsafe water. It is all they have for drinking, cooking and washing. Unclean water leads to diseases like diarrhea and cholera, which rob children of energy and often their lives.

Angola ranks sixth, with 59 percent lacking a basic water supply. Nearly a quarter of Angola's 28.2 million people use water from an unsafe surface stream or pond. In some places, water is plentiful, but it's not the water you want to drink. Carrying water home is mostly the work of women and girls, who spend many hours of the day carrying heavy jerry cans of dirty water to meet their family's needs. In fifth place is Somalia, with 60 percent lacking basic water supplies. The lack of clean water and sanitation, as well as generally poor hygiene, contribute greatly to waterborne diseases, which most often affect children and mothers in Somalia. To make matters worse, conflict, drought and flooding have displaced about 1.5 million people in the country since 2016. Ethiopia ranks fourth, with 60.9 percent lacking basic water supplies. Ethiopia has the second highest population density in Africa, with 105 million people. About 64 million of them lack access to clean water. While Ethiopia's northern highlands often receive abundant rainfall, there are also periods of severe drought and rainfall variability that add a level of urgency to providing a sustainable water supply. This is especially true for the rural population, which makes up 80 percent of the population.

Uganda ranks third, with 61.1 percent lacking basic water services. In Uganda, water and sanitation services have failed to keep pace with two decades of economic growth, population growth and increasing urbanization. The country is also home to about 1.4 million refugees, many from the conflict in South Sudan. International humanitarian assistance to these refugees is woefully underfunded. In second place is a country that is not part of the African continent, Papua New Guinea, where 63.4 percent of the population lacks a basic water supply. Much of Papua New Guinea's rural population lives in remote communities scattered throughout the country's 600 Asia-Pacific islands. Often, islanders struggle with a lack of clean water and sanitation, and many have little knowledge of basic hygiene practices.

Papua New Guinea is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the region, with frequent cyclones and floods damaging and destroying infrastructure, homes and crops. The country with the worst access to clean water in the world is Eritrea, with 80.7 percent lacking basic water supplies. Eritrean people in East Africa have the least access to clean water near their homes. The lack of adequate sanitation means that open water sources are often contaminated by human and animal waste. Deforestation and poor agricultural practices also exacerbate the water pollution problem. Eritrea hopes to see improvements in water, however, as governments, non-governmental organizations, and private sector companies join efforts with communities.18

Interrelationships in conflicts over water

Now Walter is looking for connections in possible water conflicts. The United Nations organization names five hotspots for possible armed conflicts: the Nile in Egypt, the Ganges-Brahmaputra in India, the Indus in Pakistan, the Tigris-Euphrates in Iraq and the Colorado rivers in the USA. Even though, disputes over water are nothing new. However, of the more than 700 conflicts in history, fewer than 30 have escalated into armed aggression.

The civil war in Syria, for example, began for a variety of reasons, but some analysts argue that water was a key factor. Syria is one of the driest countries in the world. An exceptional drought from 2006 to 2011 in about 60 percent of the country caused 75 percent of crops to fail and 85 percent of Syria's livestock to die, leading to food and water insecurity. As a result, 1.5 million people, mostly farmers and agricultural laborers, moved to cities to find work. The deteriorating economy combined with the emergence of the Islamic State terrorist group, the spread of Arab Spring protests, and other complex factors created the conditions for social unrest that led to civil war in 2011. A war that resulted in the deaths of over half a million people and twelve million displaced; more than half the population. In Jordan, which relies on aquifers as its only source of water, the more than half a million Syrian refugees have made water even scarcer. 19

The United States of America is emerging as the fifth potential conflict area identified by the UN. The Colorado River supplies water to many major cities in the southwestern U.S., including Los Angeles, which serves 40 million people and needs to irrigate nearly 5.5 million acres of land. But due to climate change and increasing dams, the Colorado River often runs dry before it reaches Mexico. But as more people and cities rely on this dwindling river resource, tensions may rise. Across the U.S.-Mexico border is yet another crisis. Desperate families from El Salvador, Guatemala and other Latin American countries are fleeing not only violence, but extreme poverty and food and water insecurity. The World Bank estimates that up to four million people could be displaced from Mexico and Central America over the next 30 years due to climate change. Globally, about 60 million people were displaced by weather-related disasters in 2018. A quarter of the world's population is running out of water.20

Measures can help turn the tide, as happened in South Africa. Cape Town was able to avoid Day Zero water shortages just in time. Emergency measures were taken, such as diverting water from agriculture for municipal use, or introducing water consumption tariffs and limiting water consumption to 50 liters per person per day. However, these are not long-term solutions and time is running out.

That's because underground water is being pumped around the globe so aggressively that countries and cities are sinking. The Chinese capital Beijing, parts of Shanghai, Mexico City and other cities are already slowly sinking. Parts of California's Central Valley have slid down 2.5 inches and as much as 71 inches in some local areas. Alarms are being raised around the world about the depletion of underground water supplies. The United Nations predicts a global water deficit by 2030, with more than two-thirds of the world's groundwater used to irrigate agriculture, while the rest provides drinking water for cities. Richard Damania, senior economist at the World Bank, predicts that without adequate water supplies, economic growth in the most water-stressed parts of the world could fall by six percent of gross domestic product. His findings conclude that the most severe impacts of climate change will affect water supplies.

Dry areas in particular will receive much less rainfall. The unrest in Yemen in 2009 was rooted in a water crisis. The most populated areas are also the most at risk of water shortages. The most congested is the Arabian Aquifer system, which supplies water to 60 million people in Saudi Arabia and Yemen; the second most congested is the Indus Basin in northwestern India and Pakistan; and the third most congested is the Murzuk-Djado Basin in North Africa.21

Irrigation techniques have made it possible to grow water-intensive crops in dry places, which in turn has led to local economies that are difficult to reverse today. These include sugarcane and rice in India, winter wheat in China, and corn in the southern High Plains of North America. Aquaculture is booming in the inland Ararat River basin, which lies on the border between Armenia and Turkey. The groundwater is cold enough to grow cold-water fish such as trout and sturgeon. In less than two decades, the aquifer there has been so depleted for fish ponds that municipal water supplies in more than two dozen communities are threatened. Calculating what remains in aquifers is extraordinarily difficult.

In 2015, scientists at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada, concluded that less than six percent of groundwater above two kilometers in the Earth's land mass is renewable within a human lifetime. However, other hydrologists warn that measurements can be misleading. More important is how water is distributed throughout the aquifer. When the water level drops below 1.5 meters, it is often uneconomical to pump water to the surface, and much of that water is brackish, or saline, or contains so many minerals that it is unusable.

Reducing water conflicts is one of the most important tools to fulfill the human right to water declared by the United Nations in 2010. Groundwater depletion is a slow-moving crisis, scientists say; thus, there is time to develop new technologies and water efficiencies in countries and regions. In Western Australia, desalinated water has been injected to replenish the large aquifer that Perth, Australia's driest city, taps for drinking water. China is working to regulate pumping. In west Texas, the city of Abernathy is drilling into a deeper aquifer that underlies the High Plains aquifer and blending the two aquifers to supplement municipal water supplies. Water diplomacy can help avoid conflict and build trust between states. However, this is a long-term process that can involve setbacks. In southern Africa, for example, much progress has already been made. Examples include the Okavango River, which flows through Angola, Namibia and Botswana, and the Orange-Senqu River, which runs through Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa. There are also mergers on the Mekong River in Southeast Asia, which runs through six countries. There are also approaches to dialogue on water between Jordanians, Palestinians and Israelis.

In other regions of the world, this has not yet happened. What is needed here is to strengthen the state opinion leaders in the countries. There is still a lot to do in Central Asia, just as there is in Chad or Central Africa. There, the water shortage is very high and the security situation very poor. Difficulties may also arise along the rivers in South Asia. In East Africa, where water is particularly scarce, there are already militant disputes over the distribution of river water for agriculture. This is also the case in Asia. In the Middle East, water is being used as a weapon by the Islamic State terrorist group, including by bringing dams under their control, reducing water access for the population or flooding swaths of land. This can affect a million people, many of whom drown.

In Iran, for example, water shortages had sparked protests in the summer of 2021, dubbed “The Uprising of the Thirsty." At the same time, tensions have flared up again in the long-standing dispute with neighboring Afghanistan over the Kamal Khan Dam there, upstream on the Helmand River. Susanne Schmeier is an associate professor of water law and water diplomacy at IHE Delft in the Netherlands, a UNESCO institute that provides education and training around water and water supply issues worldwide. Many accusations, such as that neighboring countries are hoarding water, are often convenient strategies to deflect attention from national problems such as high water prices or inefficient water infrastructure, Schmeier said. "Whenever Iran is facing strong domestic water crises, which would include protests by farmers or conflicts between urban citizens and farmers," Schmeier explained, "you also see at the same time, strong statements of Iranian policymakers towards Afghanistan saying, 'We want our fair share of the river.'" While Iran accuses its upstream neighbor of hoarding water, it is itself building dams, as on the Helmand and other rivers, including a tributary of the Tigris that flows on into Iraq. Iraq, in turn, is struggling with water shortages itself. The drought-stricken country blames both Iran and Turkey for its water shortages.

The Dnieper, for example, rises at an altitude of about 220 meters in a small peat bog on the southern slope of Russia's forest hills, about 240 kilometers west of Moscow, and flows south through western Russia, Belarus and Ukraine to the Black Sea. It is one of the most important and the fourth longest river in Europe; its total length is 2,285 kilometers. Kiev is located on the banks of the Dnieper River, which flows from north to south through the center of Ukraine to the Black Sea. Dam projects are intended to provide electricity and water to operator countries; often to the annoyance of neighboring states.

Shortly after the start of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia reported that its army had bombed a dam on the North Crimean Canal. Ukraine had built this dam after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, thus literally turning off the tap to the peninsula: the vital water supply to the occupied territory was thus blocked, and massive water shortages were the result. It is true that the war in Ukraine is not being fought over the water supply to Crimea.22 But the dam is an example of how power over water is used as a political bargaining chip, said Ashok Swain, professor of peace and conflict studies at Sweden's Uppsala University and former UNESCO chair in international water cooperation.

Even in Crimea, Ashok said, if the international community had involved Russia and Ukraine in resolving the humanitarian water issue, it could have provided both states "a forum to negotiate and seek solutions - to the water problem, but also to other problems."

In Ukraine, believes Mehmet Altingoz, who researches transboundary management at the U.S.-based University of Delaware, an agreement on the humanitarian issue of supplying water to Crimea could have helped reduce tensions. "NATO and the West missed an opportunity to ease tensions in the region by urging Ukraine to find a way to cooperate on providing water access to Crimea," according to a recent article he co-authored.

China's dams along the Mekong River are blamed for droughts in Thailand and Cambodia. International tensions over water rarely escalate into full-blown conflict. And when disputes do flare up, water is often just a proxy for other problems, he said. Geopolitical tensions or economic disputes are projected onto water. On the Mekong River, for example, very different factors could lead to low water levels in riparian states downstream. However, the affected states attributed the problem to the massive construction of dams by the Chinese. Neighboring countries are increasingly concerned about the consequences of China's growing power. 23

"I think that's reflected in the water issue as well," said Scott Moore, director of the China Program and Strategic Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania. 24

Turkey has built dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Iraq and also Syria now claim that these dams leave them downstream downright dry. When the Ataturk Dam was built in the 1980s, Turkey had committed to releasing 500 cubic meters of Euphrates water per second through the dam to neighboring Syria. Turkey now blames climate change for the fact that the amount of water is currently much lower. The Syrian Kurds on the other side of the border, on the other hand, believe that Turkey is deliberately throttling water flows in order to put pressure on the Kurdish areas. Now it seems to make sense for Walter: When disputes flare up, water is often just a proxy for other problems. Is it really just about calming people down by transferring difficult issues to the topic of water?25

The water powers

Walter is dismayed to discover that the planetary limit for freshwater has already been exceeded in April 2022. This is reported by an international team of researchers led by the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "Water is the bloodstream of the biosphere. But we are profoundly changing the water cycle. This is now affecting the health of the entire planet, making it much less resilient to shocks," said Lan Wang-Erlandsson of the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University. Planetary boundaries mark the safe space for humanity to act. Water is one of nine regulators of the state of the Earth system and the sixth boundary that scientists have identified as having already been crossed.26 Other exceeded boundaries include: Climate change, biosphere integrity, biogeochemical cycles, land system changes, and in 2022 novel areas that include art substance and other man-made chemicals. Until now, water was still considered to be within the safety zone. However, the original freshwater boundary focused only on water withdrawals from rivers, lakes, and groundwater, known as "blue water." Now researchers have examined the water boundary in more detail. According to them, previous assessments did not adequately capture the role of green water, and soil moisture in particular, in ensuring the resilience of the biosphere, securing land carbon sinks, and regulating atmospheric circulation.27

"The Amazon rainforest depends on soil moisture for its survival. However, there is evidence that parts of the Amazon are drying out. The forest is losing soil moisture due to climate change and deforestation," said Arne Tobian, a PhD student at the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "These changes may bring the Amazon closer to a tipping point where large parts of the rainforest could change to savanna-like stages," he added. And it's not just in the Amazon. This phenomenon is global. Everywhere from the boreal forests in the north to the tropics, from farmland to forests, soil moisture is changing. Unusually wet and dry soils are becoming commonplace. "This latest scientific analysis shows how we humans could change green water within a short period that the Earth experienced over several thousand years during the Holocene," Rockstrom concluded. "This is serious and a threat to life support systems on Earth caused by global warming, unsustainable land management and the destruction of nature." What is green, blue or gray water, anyway? These terms were coined over time as the sum of water consumed directly and indirectly by humans, known as the footprint. Green virtual water refers to used soil and rainwater from the natural water cycle. Blue virtual water refers to used water from rivers and lakes as well as groundwater. And the gray virtual water is the polluted water. 28